Blog

We are still winning, folks. Last week we evened out a bit after that insane run of 29-9-1, but 9-7 in CFB is in the green and 6-6 in NFL, we’ll have ya. The SEC Insider (your guess is as good as mine) is back on track and the mouthwatering picks are hitting at such a clip that I’m going to drown if I keep winning off of em.

This week, we’re doing something special with the blog/article/post/you-name-it. All of our winnings this week are going to Caps For A Cause, a nonprofit organization committed to increasing skin cancer awareness. It was founded by a friend of mine, Bryce (Bruce) Demoret, “a soon to be doctor” (sick brag) that shares everyone on this planet’s affinity of absolutely hating cancer. A charitable organization that is close to me is N.I.C.K.’s Camp (Nothing’s Impossible for Cancer Kids), created by friends of my father and it’s been rolling on for maybe 30 years now. Pretty much everyone has a reason to believe in “FUCK CANCER”. So let’s beat that motherfucker named “cancer” into the ground and win every bet this weekend (excluding the Thursday night pick that lost) to support Caps For A Cause (or whichever cause you may support).

Let’s get to the picks.

CFB (9-7 last week, 76-53-1 overall):

Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (4-4-1): Texas Tech at TCU (-9) – I thought about the over (70.5) but I’m nervous about TTU holding up their end of the bargain. They got their ass kicked by Baylor last week (17 points, five INTs by three QBs). TCU can still play their way into the CFP. I feel good about this number. – WIN

Dooger Dem’s “Fuck Cancer” Game Of His Life: Michigan (-25) at Rutgers (Editor’s note: I’m adding this to my card, obviously) – WIN

(Thursday) Western Michigan at Bowling Green (-4.5) – bought the half. This opened at -1 but I still like it. Why? Because I think Western Michigan is just bad and they’re gonna have trouble scoring (16 points or less in 5 of 8 games while BGSU has scored less than 16 just twice this season). It’s a toss up. I want action on it. – LOSS

(Friday) Oregon State (+4.5) at Washington – Washington has been favored in every game this season (6-2 overall). They covered their first four games. They did not cover their last four games. I’m betting against Washington. – WIN

Air Force at Army (under 40.5) – idk what the stat is on the under in service academy games but it says to take the under, so I am. (Editor’s note: an article from the mainstream media on 12/9/21 has the under at 40-9-1 since 2005 in such games) – WIN

Kentucky at Mizzou (PK) – riding the Insider (see below) – LOSS

Maryland (+4.5) at Wisconsin – Maryland (6-2) has been an underdog once this season: +17 on the road at Michigan and they covered. Both teams coming off a bye last week. Wisconsin (4-4) beat Purdue two weeks ago. Wisconsin has not won two in a row this season. Maryland coach Mike Locksley is talking about what they can accomplish this season still. Wisconsin interim coach Jim Leonhard is talking about wanting to get the head coach job full-time (translation: he’s looking ahead to next year). – LOSS

Baylor (+3.5) at Oklahoma – there’s some mainstream bias involved with this pick. But also, Dave Aranda tried recruiting Brent Venables’ son to LSU when the former was coaching there but the young Venables chose Clemson instead. Grudge match? – WIN

Middle Tennessee State at Louisiana Tech (+2.5) – just three home games for Tech this season (they’ve covered all three). MTSU has been up and down all year (4-4). Tech has an extra day of rest after playing last Friday. – WIN

Oklahoma State at Kansas (over 64.5) – Kansas’ season is done but they’re still scoring (and giving up) a lot of points (scored at least 23 and given up at least 35 during three-game losing streak). IDK what happened to OK State last week but I don’t think they gut shutout again. I think this number is kinda low. – LOSS

UCF at Memphis (+3.5) – Memphis off a bye. In four home games this year they have three wins and a one point loss to Houston. UCF has only played on the road twice (win vs FAU and 21 point loss at ECU on 10/22). Home field matters in college. And UCF doesn’t know who their QB is yet. – LOSS

 Texas (-2.5) at Kansas State – riding the Insider (see below) – WIN

Auburn at Mississippi State (-12.5) – riding the Insider (see below) – LOSS

Hawaii (+27.5) at Fresno State – a little bias in this pick but a little too many points here that Fresno is laying. The Bulldogs (4-4) have (1) win this season by that much: vs the 2-6 New Mexico Lobos two weeks ago. Hawaii is bad, but their last three road games (all losses) have been within 27.5 (they got killed at Michigan early in the season). This is the Teremana game of the Week. – LOSS

**7-7 this week (83-60-1 overall, Toretto’s picks are 5-4-1)**

SEC Insider picks of the weekend (3-1 last week, 16-14-1 overall):

*A note from the (anonymous) Insider: “The SEC Insider stands with the Jewish community and condemns all anti-semitism.”

Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (7-2): Texas (-2.5) at Kansas State – “Texas coming off that bye in a bounce back spot after dropping one to OK state. QB controversy in the Little Apple? Gimme the Horns.” – WIN

Kentucky at Mizzou (PK) – “As stated previously, UK (sic) is frauds. Going back to the well. (sic) Mizzous front gave Georgia fits a few weeks back and UKs OL is weak. Not a good recipe for the cats.” – LOSS

Tennessee at Georgia (-8) – “Something smells with this Georgia game. I don’t know what it is I smell but I can certainly smell something. Assume that means I do not have covid.” – WIN

Auburn at Mississippi State (-12.5) – “Total chaos on the plains with the Aubs. Interim Head Coach Cadillac Williams May let Tank carry it 50 times. Wouldn’t be surprised if the only play calls he installed are probably HB sweep and HB dive.” – LOSS

**2-2 this week (18-16-1 overall, mouthwatering picks are 8-2)**

NFL (6-6 last week, 39-37-1 overall):

MIA at CHI (under 46) – LOSS

MIN at WAS (+3) – PUSH

GB at DET (TT over 23) – LOSS

BUF at NYJ (under 46) – WIN

LAC (-2.5) at ATL – WIN

LAR at TB (under 42.5) – WIN

Monday night: BAL at NO (over 46.5)

Caps For A Cause

**28-9-1.**

That’s my record in college football since I made that promise about three weeks ago. We went 10-4 last week in CFB. NFL is 12-10 in that same span (4-3 last week). Not as flashy as the CFB picks but folks those are winning numbers. We’re gonna keep it rolling (loud) this week with more winners.

I got a wedding to go to on Saturday so I’ll try to update the blog with NFL picks but I’m not guaranteeing that. However, I am guaranteeing that I did my homework this week and we’ll win again.

Let’s get to the picks.

CFB (67-46-1 overall):

Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (3-4-1): Ohio State at Penn State (+15.5) – the last time OSU won this game by more than 16 points was in 2015 (38-10 in Columbus). Since then, games at Penn State had the Nittany Lions winning in ’16, lose by one in ’18 and lose by 13 in the covid year. The Bucs aren’t looking ahead to anything here and neither are the Nittany Lions.

ECU (+3) at BYU – after covering their first two games, BYU is 0-6 ATS. ECU is 2-1 ATS as underdogs but this is more about not trusting BYU.

Boston College at UCONN (+7.5) – this is a both teams suck game so I’m taking the points. UCONN, after losing big to Cuse, Michigan and NC State, have covered four straight games (including the NC State game). BC’s only win this year (of their two total wins) by more than 7 points was a 38-17 win (shoutout Basil and Ellen Prifti).

Arkansas (-3.5) at Auburn – SEC Insider’s (still don’t know) mouthwatering pick

Miami (OH) at Akron (+8.5) – the Zips have covered twice in a row for me and this game is a lot like the last two. Why is Love and Honor laying 8.5 on the road? They beat Robert Morris by double digits but every other game has been a loss or a win by exactly three points.

Florida at Georgia (-22.5) – needed some convincing from the Insider to take this pick. It’s not a look ahead spot (Tennessee at Georgia is next week). This game matters to the Dawgs. It matters to Kirby (South Georgia native). Insider: “Oh man I think (Georgia) wins handily…(Georgia) is getting healthy…(Georgia’s) biggest rival. Take a gander at this.

New Mexico State (-2.5) at UMASS – mainstream bias pick of the week (need to keep track of these)

SMU at Tulsa (+2.5) – read something about Tanner Mordecai having a concussion so he might not play. Tulsa are 2-0 ATS as underdogs. I just have an inkling about this one

***LATE ADD***: Cincinnati at UCF (-0.5) – bought half

Northwestern at Iowa (under 37.5) – they can’t possibly go over this number, can they?

Colorado State (+27.5) at Boise State – this is an eye popping number. Boise is 5-2 but they haven’t won by 27 all year. CSU was the worst team in the country after four games but they’re getting better. Won two of the last three games, all decided by a combined 11 points. I just don’t see why Boise is laying this much (I clearly have a thing for making my picks based on that assessment)

Kentucky at Tennessee (-11.5) – bought the half. Another convincing pick from the Insider: “Night game in (sic) neyland I think they’ll be ready to go”

USC (-15.5) at Arizona – a little nervous about this one cause Arizona has a solid offense, bad season, could bring the energy for this game (the o/u is 76.5). But USC is off a bye (so is Arizona, for the record), they had the scare at Oregon State (who always plays the Trojans well) and USC lost the Utah game that Utah was just meant to win. Every other win has been by at least 16 points.

***LATE ADD***: Ole Miss (-2.5) at Texas A&M – took it after I saw the report of Jimbo canceling his production meeting with ESPN and his agent is in town

Pitt at North Carolina (-3) – can’t remember why I liked this game. This strategy worked last week, FYI (Editor’s note: I’m writing this at 8:30 am so no Teremana has been consumed, for the record)

MTSU at UTEP (-1.5) – there was some bias in this pick as well. However, I MTSU had that upset against a bad Miami team, they beat Colorado State (when they really sucked) and Texas State (?) early in the season. They’ve lost every game by at least 15 points. I’ll bet on the home team here.

SEC Insider picks of the weekend (13-13-1 overall):

Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (6-2): Arkansas (-3.5) at Auburn – “Harsin has lost the locker room. Portal going crazy. WPS my mouth is watering”

Cincinnati at UCF (-1.5)

Florida at Georgia (-22.5) – …continued analysis from above…“Jamon Dumas Johnson said this week they still have a bad taste in their mouth from 2020 and how those seniors went out with a loss there.”

Kentucky at Tennessee (-12) – …continued analysis from above…“My take still stands in Uk being frauds”

NFL (34-31-1 overall):

***above record includes Baltimore (+2.5) at Tampa Bay on TNF***

🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥

Wowee-wow-wow-wow. Two weeks ago we got back on track. Last week we lit that shit on fire like Ghost Rider coming down the ramp about jump the length a football field with 100 yards worth of helicopters covering the turf (I really need to rewatch Ghost Rider cause that movie was awesome and also Wes Bentley).

13-2 in college football. And one of those losses was the (anonymous) SEC Insider’s mouthwatering pick so I was really like 13-1 (Editor’s note: I will continue to follow the mouthwatering picks). Just looking back on why I made my picks last week I was so fucking smart. But it does scare me. Because that’s hard to duplicate and now I’m a little over confident (I took Georgia Tech -2.5 Thursday night and they lost 16-9). I gotta keep my head clear (kinda hard when I’m drinking Teremana while writing this), stick to the science (when applicable) and just do my thing (whatever that means).

NFL went 1-2, but I won in terms of units. I really should be tracking my picks that way but that’s too much math and the Finite (no, not fortnite) math classes at IU burned my brain in ways that I don’t ever want to talk about again. I put 5 units on Bengals -3 and Burrow to Chase saved the day for the win and cover. Then I took over in Chiefs-Bills and live lined Chiefs before their final drive (Mahomes INT) just cause I had some money to work with and wanted action on the game. That was a move that was reflective of CFB Week 5 & NFL Week 4 so I need to stray away from that.

With all that said, let’s get to the picks:

CFB (57-43-1 overall):

Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (3-3-1): Syracuse at Clemson (-13.5) – nice win for Cuse over NC State last week, but they’ve also beaten Wagner, Virginia (by 2), Purdue (by 3) and their only away game of the season was a win at (an improved ) UCONN team. One away game this season! Now they go to Clemson. Outside of the dome. DJ is getting a lot better, Clemson could be a playoff team, I’m not overthinking this – LOSS

Akron (+18.5) at Kent State – literally the same reason I picked Akron last week (+13.5 vs CMU). Both teams suck. Why is Kent State getting this many points? – WIN

Iowa at Ohio State (-28.5) – this line has already moved to OSU -30. I read something about the Buckeyes getting healthy. Yeah Iowa’s got the good defense but both teams are coming off a bye. You think Ryan Day can’t figure this defense out? – WIN

Cincinnati (-3.5) at SMU – I’m mostly riding a friend of mine who seems to think UC rolls here. He’s slightly delusional but he’s been to this game at SMU before so I’ll trust him. UC coming off a bye too (though SMU played last Friday so they have an extra day of rest) – LOSS

Duke (+9) at Miami – I know Duke is fraudulent and they only beat Northwestern by 8, but each of their losses is by 8 or less points. After Miami’s first two sleeper games of the year (wins vs Bethune Cookman and Southern Missouri) they’re 0-4 against the spread and lost outright as favorites twice. I don’t trust the Canes. – WIN

Bowling Green (+6.5) at Central Michigan – can’t remember why I picked this one. I’d fade it (Editor’s note: was not drinking Teremana when I made this pick) – WIN

Marshall at James Madison (-12.5) – I like JMU in a bounce back game at home. They lost by 7 at a solid Georgia Southern team after getting to #25 in the polls. Back home for the first time in two weeks. I will say, Marshall has stayed within 10 points in each of their three losses (Editor’s note: was drinking Teremana when I made this pick) – LOSS

Boston College at Wake Forest (-20.5) – Wake Forest is an actual good team and Boston College is an actual bad team. Both teams off the bye, I’ll take the better team in every respect to win – WIN

Texas at Oklahoma State (over 60.5) – OK State with the points was on my mind but I think the total points is the better bet. Texas has played two great coaches/defenses in Bama and Iowa State and didn’t top 30 points. Every other game they’ve scored at least 34. Oklahoma State has at least 34 in each game and the over in their games has hit in four straight. – WIN

UCLA at Oregon (over 71.5) – kinda like OK State vs TCU last week, there’s so many points I just wanna be in on it. This game will be fun. (UCLA has 40 in every game besides one (32 in that one) and Oregon has at least 41 in each game besides the Georgia game) – WIN

Florida Atlantic at UTEP (+4) – mainstream bias pick of the week – WIN

Mississippi State at Alabama (-20.5) – bought the half point. If Bama loses this game, their season is over. I’m here to report that Bama’s season is not over. Bama has won this game by at least 24 points in four straight years. – WIN

Kansas State at TCU (-3.5) – rider – WIN

**went 10-3 Saturday, 10-4 on the week (updated CFB record: 67-46-1 overall…Toretto’s picks: 3-4-1)**

SEC Insider picks of the weekend (10-12-1 overall):

Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (5-2): Kansas State at TCU (-3.5) – “The TCU train keeps rolling. Can they win the (sic) big 12? Bearcat fans starting to think their transition to the Big 12 may not be as easy as they thought.” – WIN

Purdue at Wisconsin (-2.5) – WIN

Texas A&M at South Carolina (+3) – “Que (sic) Samdstorm.” (Editor’s note: this was not an initial pick by the Insider (no clue who it could be). I received the other three picks then replied ‘No SEC picks…🤔’ and this person responded ‘You’re right. I will add one. Gosh I’ve been in a slump’ and immediately responded with this pick” – WIN

UCLA (+6.5) at Oregon – “Bo Nix hasn’t fallen flat on his face in a while. Looking forward to true dual between him and DTR.” – LOSS

**went 3-1 (updated overall record: 13-13-1…mouthwatering picks: 6-2)**

NFL (29-28-1 overall):

ATL at CIN (over 47.5) – Bengals offense is starting to come together (wouldn’t be surprised if they put up 30 again), their run defense sucks and the Falcons are the best running team in the league so they could steal a couple touchdowns there, mix in a couple field goals and we got it

GB at WAS (+4.5) – why not? Can’t trust the Packers to beat the breaks off anyone (beat Tampa by 2, Chicago on SNF and the Saints in week two by 10), Commanders coming off a win and extended rest and Taylor Heinecke could bring some energy to the offense

TB at CAR (+13.5) – this is a science pick and it’s more about not trusting the Bucs. Plus the Panthers aren’t tanking, they just don’t need CMC to win games

NYJ at DEN (1H u17.5) – read something about the weather being not great for the first half of this game and maybe Brett Rypien needs a half to get into rhythm

KC at SF (u49.5) – gonna be windy in the Bay Area, 49ers have a lock down defense, just feel like this will be a slow game

I promised last week that we’d get back on track, and right on track we are. 5-4-1 in college football and 7-5 in the NFL (*Editor’s note: it should be 7-4 in NFL but I decided to take a pick that someone I know designated as “the lock of the day” when it in fact was not a lock. That team failed to score any points. I will not be riding this person’s picks anymore)

Last week started as a disaster but a late Saturday afternoon winning streak sent me into the green and provided mostly good vibes for the rest of the weekend. And how about that SEC Insider (any guesses?) getting right on track? A good bounce back in the mouthwatering pick and the only blemish was trusting noted pervert Brent Musberger.

So we’re rolling along and throwing out winners for another week. Let’s get to the picks.

CFB (44-40-1 overall):

Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (2-3-1): Nebraska (+14) at Purdue – Purdue’s only game this year decided by more than 14 points? A 56-0 win over the now 1-4 Indiana State Cyclones. Nebraska lost their first game under their new head coach (?) but have won the last two. 14 points is just too much. – WIN

Central Michigan at Akron (+13.5) – A good old-fashioned science pick. They’re both 1-5 so idk why the hell Central Michigan is laying that much on the road. Maybe if I did some research it’d make sense but that’s not happening – WIN

Penn State at Michigan (-6.5) – bought the half. I’ll take the Wolverines in the Big House in a big game. Plus, Penn State has screwed me a couple times this year. – WIN

UCONN (+9.5) at Ball State – a little mainstream bias came with this pick but Ball State’s last three games have been decided by nine points or less and, after losing to Syracuse, Michigan and NC State in consecutive weeks, UCONN’s playing a more realistic schedule and has won the last two. – WIN

Alabama at Tennessee (+7.5) – bought the half. Have to bet on this game and I wanna believe in Rocky Top – WIN

Vanderbilt at Georgia (-38) – Dawgs have the bye week before playing Florida, I think they wanna keep the #1 ranking so they blow out Vandy easy – WIN

Oklahoma State at TCU (over 68) – this could be a bad play but it’s a fun one to bet on. At least 34 points in every game for OK State and at least 38 for TCU in every game. So the under will definitely hit. – WIN

Wisconsin (-7.5) at Michigan State – I don’t trust Mel Tucker to rally the troops for this one. He made some comments in a press conference about consistency and other coach-speak stuff. I think he’s fine with getting bought out from that $95 million contract and I’ll ride with the interim coach thing for Wisconsin again – LOSS

Memphis (+5.5) at ECU – mainstream bias. The source said five points is too much and, just looking at ECU’s schedule, they haven’t done anything great since that first game against NC State and that wasn’t even that impressive. Congrats, you beat USF by 20 points. I’ll ride with the bias – WIN

Mississippi State (-4) at Kentucky – always riding with the Insider – LOSS

*I will absolutely add to the card

Late adds:

Kansas at Oklahoma (over 65) – WIN

Iowa State (+15.5) at Texas – WIN

Monmouth at Maine (over 60.5) – Matthew 28:19 > Larry David says if you like lobster it doesn’t mean you should convince the world to eat lobster > the seafood capital state of the United States? Maine > it’s Homecoming for the Black Bears and they host Monmouth > Monmouth averages about 40 per game and nearly 500 yards of offense while Maine is averaging over 418 yards and 22 points per game over the last three – WIN

Alabama at Tennessee (over 66.5) – WIN

**went 13-2 (updated overall record: 57-42-1…Toretto’s picks: 3-3-1)**

SEC Insider picks of the weekend (9-8-1 overall):

Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (5-1): Mississippi State (-4) at Kentucky – “I think (Kentucky) are one of the most overrated teams in the country with or without (Will Levis)” – LOSS

Penn State (+7) at Michigan – LOSS

Vanderbilt at Georgia (-38 and over 56.5) – COVERED SPREAD, LOST OVER

USC at Utah (-3) – LOSS

BONUS GOLF PICK OF THE WEEK: Sepp Straka top-10 finish at the ZOZO thing – “Straka last 3 starts on Zoysia (?) grass (sic) 2,3,2″ (*Editor’s note: Straka is currently T-49 and Even after two rounds) – LOSS (*Editor’s note: I will no longer be accepting golf bets on this blog and I won’t count this as a loss against the overall record, it’s just a loss of trust)

**went 1-4 (updated overall record: 10-12-1)…mouthwatering picks: 5-2**

NFL (28-26-1 overall):

will add Sunday morning

Bengals (-3) at Saints – that’s it. The winnings from yesterday are going into this. Must win for the Who Deys. Saints’ top three receivers and Lattimore are out. Return to New Orleans for Burrow and Chase (and Collins). Burrow was wearing Chase’s national championship jersey into the superdome. Funny stat though: Andy Dalton is 2-0 vs the Bengals (Cowboys won in 2020 and Bears won in 2021).

**will probably take the over in Chiefs-Bills and some side on the SNF game**

Well last week sucked. The two games I felt were absolute locks (Georgia and Indiana) were in fact, not locks. It was a great start to the week with the Bengals taking care of business against the Dolphins (thoughts and prayers) but almost nothing went right after that. The Houston overs trend is dead (*Editor’s note: I wrote this before Houston-Memphis hit the over on Friday night), USC is no longer a ride or die pick, and some fool at my friend’s engagement party told me to trust the mainstream bias and take Virginia +2 against Duke. Final score? Vagina-17 Duke-38. Ya know, someone once told me, “Alcohol and mainstream bias is no way to go through life, son.” Truer words have never been spoken. (*Editor’s note: I took SMU on Wednesday night so we’re 0-1 this week)

College football finished 4-8.

I will say I made some smart picks. UTSA TT was easy, OU +11.5 (Ohio, Reid), and Kansas will be on the card once more this week.

NFL? Actually decent. 6-4-1 (BUF -3 pushed). Thought I did worse but a winning week is a winning week. Would love to do that again but it’ll be a negative start to the week with this Thursday night game making me want to drink another glass of Teremana (I took Broncos -3 and as I’m writing this it’s 12-9 Colts in OT)

(*Editor’s note: Nathaniel Hackett is a fucking idiot).

An important note: I think the week was destined to fail because I didn’t put in the effort on last week’s blog, and that’s on me. The SEC Insider (your guess is as good as mine) sent me two wrong lines and I only caught one of em. Just lazy by me.

I just want to say one thing.

To the fans and everybody in my blog’s Nation, I’m sorry, extremely sorry.

I promise you one thing, a lot of good will come out of this.

Let’s get to the picks.

CFB (39-37 overall)

Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (2-3): TCU at Kansas (+7) – I’m riding the Kansas train. TCU has beaten Colorado (one of the worst teams in the country), Texas State (?), an awful SMU team and Oklahoma (They’ll be good under Venables, just not this year). Kansas has been tested and will show out for this one. – PUSH

Texas at Oklahoma (over 65.5) – Red River rivalry – LOSS

Tennessee at LSU (+3) – riding with the Insider here – LOSS

Buffalo at Bowling Green (+2.5) – bought half point. Mainstream bias pick – LOSS

Kent State at Miami Ohio (+5) – this is me not trusting Kent State still. Love and Honor pick of the week – WIN

Wisconsin (-10.5) at Northwestern – Northwestern sucks. Mutual decision firing at Wisconsin this week. Feels like an easy win – WIN

**Late add: Utah at UCLA (over 64.5) – WIN

Kansas State at Iowa State (+1.5) – feels like a “Matt Campbell will get talked about in NFL circles again” type of game. Cyclones can absolutely win this – WIN

**Went 5-3-1 on Saturday. Updated record: 44-40-1 overall**

SEC Insider picks of the weekend (7-7-1 overall):

Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (4-1): Ole Miss (-17) at Vanderbilt – WIN

South Carolina (+6) at Kentucky – WIN

Tennessee at LSU (+3) – (sic) “a home team getting points, what’s better than that?” Musberger – LOSS

**updated overall record: 9-8-1…updated mouthwatering pick record: 5-1**

NFL (21-21-1):

Giants (+8.5) at GB

Titans (PK) at Commanders

Texans at Jaguars (-6.5) – bought half

Falcons at Bucs (under 46.5)

Dolphins at Jets (+3.5)

Steelers at Bills (-13.5) – bough half

Cowboys (+5.5) at Rams

Bengals (+3.5) at Ravens

Quick write-up. CFB went 10-7 last week and NFL 5-4. SEC Insider’s mouthwatering picks are now 4-0. The Bengals came through in a huge spot against Miami. I took -4 and TT o26.5 so thank the lord for Teddy two (2) gloves finding an open Vonn Bell and Joe Burrow getting the job done at the end. I’ll probably tweet out the NFL picks once I get a good look at the Sunday slate. Onto the CFB picks:

CFB (35-28 overall):

Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (2-2): Georgia (-27.5) at Missouri – I had this Saturday night and the SEC Insider (remains anonymous) confirmed it. Dawgs kept Kent State too close last week so Kirby probably kicked their ass in practice. Mizzou had a devastating loss. UGA rolls.

Tulane at Houston (over 54.5) – just keep riding the Houston overs (4-0 this season)

UTSA (TT o34) at MTSU – let down game for MTSU after beating Miami and only time UTSA didn’t hit that number was when they scored 20 in a loss at Texas.

Michigan at Iowa (+11.5) – there’s just something about top 5 teams going to Kinnick Stadium (there is a stat but I’m not looking it up). Only thing that scares me is this isn’t a night game (11 am central kickoff)

Ohio (+11.5) at Kent State – Kent state gave their souls to try and win at Sanford Stadium. They’re in the graveyard like Spurrier’s visor

Northwestern at Penn State (-24.5) – Northwestern may be the worst power 5 team in the nation and they’re too focused on building smaller stadiums instead of covering spreads

Iowa State at Kansas (+3) – home dogs and Kansas might be for real

LSU (-7.5) at Auburn – Bryan Harsin probably pooped his pants after escaping for a win against Mizzou. He’s gonna have diarrhea this week. And LSU’s loss to Florida State is looking better and better each week

Indiana (+4.5) – at Nebraska – this has my science written all over it. Why is Nebraska favored in any game? Tom Allen is probably a fraud but he can beat Nebraska. And That former Nebraska coach who also called Tom Allen a fraud (“clown”) got skirted on social media for all the wrong reasons

Arizona State at USC (-24.5) – Toretto’s pick last week couldn’t get it done but Oregon State has a history of giving USC fits. Arizona State is a program in shambles. I’m not overthinking this one

SEC Insider picks of the weekend (7-4-1 overall):

Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (4-0): Georgia (-27.5) at Missouri – “mouthwatering faucet rain river” (*Editor’s note: ?)

Kentucky at Ole Miss (+7)

Oklahoma State at Baylor (-2) – *Editor’s note: the Insider texted me Baylor +2 but they, in fact, are not +2, so this is pending (*Editor’s note to the Editor’s note: “I had it flipped my fault”)… -2 it is

NFL (*15-16):

*Includes Bengals -4 and TT o26.5*

Big rebound last weekend. I think read into a little bit of bias when I was making picks a couple of weeks ago and it threw me off. Last week was like Martin Lawrence asking “The Sledgehammer” to teach Big Mac math, but instead of him actually teaching her math, “The Sledgehammer” taught me to ignore the math and trust the science that is me simply looking at a line and liking it. (Editor’s note: I understand not everyone will get that reference but “Rebound” is a classic 2000s comedy and I won’t apologize for it). Also, it’s a lot easier to make picks when you’re drinking (responsibly) and the group chat says they’re taking a side and you throw your money on that (still, responsibly).

All-in-all, we went 6-7 in college football and 5-4 on the NFL. That’s an even 11-11 (thanks Big Mac). The Toretto pick hit again and I’ll be following that algorithm again this week by taking USC. I actually went 1-3 on picks from the group chat so really I had a winning week if you look at it. The SEC Insider went 1-2 but the mouthwatering pick moved to 3-0 with the Dawgs rolling again.

NFL picks woulda looked a lot better if not for the AFC North looking like a train wreck. Save for the Steelers hitting the under, I was in the contingent of Browns & Ravens backers that just crushed our collective souls. And then the Bengals. At the end of the day, we rebounded. Let’s get to the picks:

CFB (25-21 overall):

Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (2-1): USC (-6.5) at Oregon State – ride or die

Maryland at Michigan (-16.5)

Clemson at Wake Forest (+7.5 AND over 55.5) – the science loved these picks from the jump.

Central Michigan at Penn State (-27.5) – CMU lost to some “USA” team a couple of weeks ago, so let’s call this America’s Pick of the Week.

Duke at Kansas (-7.5) – ESPN should’ve sent Jay Bilas and Dickie V to call this game with Reece Davis. Duke has played some bums so far so I’ll take my neighboring state.

James Madison (+7.5) at App. State – this would’ve been my “take it or leave it” pick if USC didn’t cover last week.

Indiana at Cincinnati (-16.5) – As an IU alum, I know when to not get your hopes up about Indiana football when things seem like they’re going in the right direction. I’ve had a lot of training as a Bengals fan.

Southern Miss. at Tulane (-12.5) – this is strictly betting against Brett Favre.

Vanderbilt at Alabama (-40.5) – negative publicity around Vandy and the science just loved this one.

Kansas State at Oklahoma (-12.5) – I think the Sooners are just really good and need to be favored by more in games against far inferior opponents. Translation: the line is too low.

Hawaii (+4.5) at New Mexico St. – these teams suck, this should be a pickem so take the points.

SEC Insider picks of the weekend (4-4-1 overall):

Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (3-0): Arkansas (+2.5) at Texas A&M – “what looks to be a big year for the Hogs playing in former Hog Jerry Jones (sic) palace? What could go wrong?”

Duke at Kansas (-7.5)

James Madison (+7.5) at App. State

NFL (*8-12 overall):

*Browns -4.5 was the TNF pick*

BAL (-2.5) at NE – this line is too fishy to not take. I might be dumb.

BUF (-4.5 AND over 52.5) at MIA – taking the over because you have to in this game and I ultimately think the Bills are the best team in the league.

KC (-5.5) at IND – again, too fishy so I’m taking the bait.

GB AT TB (under 42.5) – trust the science

SF (-1.5) at DEN – Jimmy G back under the lights feels right and I think Hackett won’t be able to handle primetime again. In fact, Hackett might be a fraud.

Last week could not have gone any better. The team went 13-6 and Dom Toretto’s pick (USC -32.5) was an easy hit.

There were a few late adds from the initial blog (NC -11.5, Michigan -30.5, Troy +21.5 and the over in LSU-FSU). Those picks went 2-2. Also, the SEC Insider (whoever that may be) went 1-0-1. Shoulda bought the half point to bring Arkansas down to -6.5 like my psycho ass. And instead of “toying with the idea” of taking Florida ml, the kid (could also be an adult) needs to learn to just pull the trigger.

Anyway, I didn’t do much research for Week 1 so I’ll do the same for this week. The SEC Insider and I (good grammar) are on the opposite side of a few games so we’ll see who’s the smarter one after this week. I’ll point out the mainstream bias in my picks when they happen, but let’s get into it.

Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (1-0): Alabama (-20.5) at Texas

I think Bama wins by three touchdowns. Saban is gonna give Sarkisian a “welcome to the SEC” moment. He lost to Jimbo and Kirby last season, first times he’s ever lost to a former assistant (I believe), and I think he knows that and wants to prove a point here.

Louisville at UCF (-6.5) – there was a little mainstream bias in this one.

Arkansas State at Ohio State (-44.5) – also this one.

Tennessee at Pitt (+6.5) – my friend’s sibling went Tennessee. This friend told me their sibling drafted Gronk in fantasy earlier this week. I took Pitt immediately.

Appalachian State at Texas A&M (-18.5) – I don’t think App St. can put together a competitive game in College Station after what happened last week.

Houston at Texas Tech (over 62.5) – these two teams just scream “over”…so I bet they combine for 20 total points. I’m doing it anyway.

ODU at ECU (over 51.5) – there’s some mainstream bias here but I also think ECU will go for it a lot more after their kicker absolutely blew chunks last week (be nice Griff).

USC (-7.5) at Stanford – Dom Toretto is the poster boy for “ride or die” so I’m rolling with them again.

Baylor at BYU (over 53.5) – Big Cat’s Game of the Year.

SEC Insider picks of the weekend:

Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (1-0): Tennessee (-6) at Pitt

Alabama at Texas (+20)

South Carolina (+8.5) at Arkansas – I will probably add this one to my card

Kentucky at Florida (-6)

(*Editor’s note: The Insider told me their picks after I already put mine in so that’s why the lines are different on Tenn-Pitt and Bama-Texas)

Dun dun duh-duh-dun dun…duh-duh-duh-duh-duh-duh-duh-duh-DUN.

Can’t believe the NFL is back. I’m excited to get disappointed by my fantasy team and gamble with money I shouldn’t be gambling with (responsibly). College football Week 1 was a success, from both a viewing perspective and (allegedly) my venmo account. Now it’s time for the NFL to follow suit.

Hard Knocks was pretty good and it got me thinking about ATS records for teams that were on the show, only for their Week 1 games. I couldn’t find that specific stat anywhere so I did the research myself, using Pro Football Reference (*Editor’s note: Tampa Bay was on Hard Knocks in 2017 but their season opener against the Dolphins was postponed because of Hurricane Irma, so I did not count their first game that was played in Week 2 (in which they covered as favorites and the under hit)):

Hard Knocks team ATS in Week 1: 8-7-1

HK outright wins as underdogs: 2

Opponent outright wins as underdogs: 5

Under is 11-5

2001: Ravens, -10.5, o/u 33.5…Final CHI (6) at BAL (17)

2002: Cowboys, -8.5, o/u 33.5…Final: DAL (10) at HOU (19)

2007: Chiefs, +3, o/u 38…Final: KC (3) at HOU (20)

2008: Cowboys, -6, o/u 48.5…Final: DAL (28) at CLE (10)

2009: Bengals, -5, o/u 41…Final: DEN (12) at CIN (7) (Brandon Stokley can kiss-my-anthia)

2010: Jets, -1, o/u 36.5…Final: BAL (10) at NYJ (9)

2012: Dolphins, +13.5, o/u 41.5…Final: MIA (10) at HOU (30)

2013: Bengals, +3, o/u 41.5…Final: CIN (21) at CHI (24)

2014: Falcons, +3, o/u 51.5…Final: NO (34) at ATL (37) in OT

2015: Texans, -1, o/u 41…Final: KC (27) at HOU (20)

2016: Rams, -2.5, o/u 43…Final: LAR (0) at SF (28)

2018: Browns, +3.5, o/u 41…Final: PIT (21) at CLE (21)

2019: Raiders, +3, o/u 42.5…Final: DEN (16) at OAK (24)

2020: Chargers, -2.5, o/u 41.5…Final: LAC (16) at CIN (13)

2020: Rams, -1, o/u 52…Final: DAL (17) at LAR (20)

2021: Cowboys, +8.5, o/u 52…Fina: DAL (29) at TB (31)

2022: Lions (+4) vs. Eagles, o/u 48.5

Lions are at home so they seem like a sexy pick, especially cause Hard Knocks teams have covered in five straight Week 1 games, but I just can’t do it. However, I will be confidently betting the under.

More picks are below some futures I’m taking.

Seahawks Under 5.5 Regular Season Wins (+115)

I am so down on the Seahawks this year. I think they may be the worst team in the league. Do you really trust Geno Smith and Drew Lock?

Bobby Wagner is gone, that’s gonna hurt the morale for the defense and the locker room. Plus money here is a steal.

Bengals Over 10 Regular Season Wins (even money)

If the Bengals don’t win 11 games this year then something didn’t go right. (*Editor’s note: Rams o/u is 10.5 I think, which is appealing, but this Stafford elbow stuff freaks me out so I’m staying away from that)

AFC North winner: Bengals (+120)

Why are the Ravens the outright favorite? WHO DEY.

AFC South winner: Jaguars (+640)

Just doing this one for fun. Maybe Doug Pedersen will be the difference. Maybe Trevor Lawrence makes a Joe Burrow-esque second-year leap. Maybe the Colts and Titans underperform.

NFC North winner: Vikings (+230)

This is a mainstream bias pick. If the hype around Kevin O’Connell is real and the Kirk Cousins/Mike Zimmer drama was bringing the team down, this could very well happen. This is also me banking on Aaron Rodgers really missing a true #1 wideout.

MVP: Jalen Hurts (+2100)

Also a bit of a mainstream bias pick but this is really good value.

Onto to the *tentative picks:

Bills at Rams (ml +115) & o52 – I forgot to buy the half point but it’s always the over for the first game of the season. Rams ml because I’m pretty sure McVay’s got a great record when he gets extra time to prepare and it’s a home dog.

Dom Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” NFL Pick of the Weekend: Steelers at Bengals (-6.5) – WHO DEY.

Saints at Falcons (+5.5) – I could absolutely see the Falcons getting wrecked but I’ll tell ya why I like them here: Dennis Allen has the bad HC record (like 8-28, I think (*Editor’s note: yeah I stopped doing actual research cause it took me a while to look up those Hard Knocks numbers and I need to go to bed)) and Arthur Smith will throw everything he’s got into this game because the Falcons won’t have a good chance to win much more after this one.

Eagles at Lions (Under 48.5) – Following the numbers on this one.

Broncos (-6.5) at Seahawks – Again, I just don’t like Seattle at all this year. Give me the Russ revenge game and LET’S RIDE.

It just feels different. I woke up this (Thursday) morning, September 1st, with an extra pep in my step. Whenever I work the midnight shift, I’ll wake up the next morning at 8am, open up my right eye (it takes a few minutes for the left eye to start functioning), scroll the phone for about a half hour, finally get up, make some coffee and start my day (i.e. sit on my couch for an hour and watch the Dan Patrick Show). But that wasn’t the case today. No, sir. Today I woke up, opened both of my eyes and scrolled the phone for about 20 minutes before making some coffee and staring at the board (with DP on in the background). I had a good week 0, going 3-1, which is important for two (2) reasons: I can’t afford to gamble so I have to win and that gave me some confidence when looking at the board this week. There’s very little mainstream bias in my picks, mostly gut feelings, so we shall see. Below my picks I will have my SEC insider’s picks of the weekend. Happy college football Week 1 everybody. (Editor’s note: I’ll almost always buy a half point because I hate pushing and I’m paranoid enough to think the whole number will always hit)

Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week: Rice at USC (-32.5)

WVU (+7.5) at Pitt

Ball St. at Tennessee (-35.5)

Houston at UTSA (over 61.5) – bought half point

Oregon at Georgia (-16.5) – bought half point

Cincinnati at Arkansas (-6.5) – bought half point

Texas St. at Nevada (ml -115)

MTSU at James Madison (-5.5) – bought half point

Army at Coastal Carolina (over 53.5) – bought half point

UMass at Tulsa (over 59)

• Late add: Miami (OH) at Kentucky (-16.5)

Georgia St. at South Carolina (-12.5)

Notre Dame at Ohio St. (-16.5) – bought half point

*Late add: ND-OSU o58.5 – bought half point

Boise St. (ml +120) at Oregon St.

SEC Insider picks of the weekend:

Mouth Watering Pick of the Week: Georgia -17

Cincinnati at Arkansas (-7)

“I am toying with the idea of Florida ml (+125)” at home vs. Utah

I watched five (5) movies this past Sunday.

It was just one of those days when you wake up don’t wanna do shit. However, I did go for a hike after the third movie to get my daily dose of Vitamin D (sidebar: I think nature is cool except for everything that nature has to offer i.e. spider webs, the sound of something moving through the woods then you look over and it’s just a squirrel running, the thought of a bear/snake/vulture/sex offender appearing out of nowhere to challenge you, walking into a spider web, etc.). Here are my thoughts on those movies:

S#!%house, or, Shithouse (2020): I first heard about this when Cooper Raiff went on the Bill Simmons podcast. Can’t believe it took me this long to see it. Raiff is the star/director/writer/producer/editor of the small-budget film with this description: “A lonely college freshman forges a strong connection with his resident assistant during a fraternity party.” It’s simple but there’s a lot to take away from it. His next movie may be better than this one.

Cha Cha Real Smooth (2022): This is Cooper Raiff’s next movie. Here’s the synopsis: “A young man who works as a Bar Mitzvah party host strikes up a friendship with a mother and her autistic daughter.” Dakota Johnson is the mother and she is a perfect partner for Raiff. Just a really good movie.

Army of Thieves (2021): It’s a prequel to Army of the Dead, the Zack Snyder zombie-heist movie starring Dave Bautista, and was actually pretty good. The storytelling is good, it’s kind of funny, but most importantly, actor/director Matthias Schweighöfer made me appreciate his character in Dead a lot more. (You can enjoy this movie without watching Army of the Dead)

Not Okay (2022): A legit good movie. It’s not like Denis Villeneuve-good or Oscar worthy but it’s good. Zoey Deutch is the ideal actress for this generation. Dylan O’Brien is hilarious and plays his cringe-worthy character to a ‘T’ (shoutout to American Assassin, btw).

Deep Water (2022): Eh. It’s a mystery-thriller-romance thing that’s not bad but I didn’t like it like I thought I would. I think it was adapted from a book or a play and it’s easy to see that (sidebar: I hate movies that were originally written as plays despite really wanting to like them, see Killer Joe). Stay for Ben Affleck and Ana de Armas.

“The Rehearsal” on HBO is the new funniest show on TV.

I’m on the record saying “Nathan For You” is the funniest TV show ever made and I stand by it. Nathan Fielder just gets comedy. I heard this on a podcast but can’t remember who said it but this person had an analogy that went: “The Rehearsal” is to “Nathan For You” what “Better Call Saul” is to “Breaking Bad” and that is correct. I don’t know if “The Rehearsal” will be better than Nathan Fielder’s first act but it is good because of what came before it.

I was recently awarded the #1 pick in my fantasy football draft.

I’m nervous. I’m looked at as inferior in my league because of my ineptitude to win. I know: you don’t care. Moving on.

I’m looking at NFL regular season win totals.

I love Seattle u5.5 and I got it at +115. I think that is the lock of the season. No Russell Wilson, Chris Carson retiring, stacked NFC West…just take it and don’t look back. I kinda like the Lions u6.5 and I feel like the Vikings could be a playoff team this year but I’m not as confident about taking them to win 10 games. Also, I hate it, but Steelers o7.5 is a good bet. Mike Tomlin just knows how to win.

The Reds blew it up again.

I’m not happy about it but at least they did it the right way. You get some top prospects from the Mariners and Twins and some other guys from some other teams for some other players you weren’t going to keep for long. Great. I hate betting on prospects to turn into actual major league talent but the Reds have all the best shortstops in the game in their farm system so someone has to pan out. Now they won’t try to compete for the playoffs for another 2-4 years and when they don’t make it they’ll trade Jonathan India and Tyler Stephenson and probably Hunter Greene and I’m already getting prepared for that. Thankfully the Bengals got their shit together and are actually trying to win. (Sidebar: I’ll be rooting for the Mariners the rest of the way after their trade for Curt Casali.)

Dude Perfect will provide and alternate stream for “Thursday Night Football” on Amazon.

I don’t see how this works. Apparently, “the plan is for them to perform dunks, stunts and tricks from their headquarters studio in Frisco, Texas.” I just don’t get it. I will say that I like how Amazon is thinking outside the box and trying to do something completely different and I’ll check it out when it’s on. But there’s just no way this has long-lasting success like the Nickelodeon game on CBS.