I’m not satisfied 3.5 weeks into the season but I’m not totally upset either. We’re 23-20-1 overall. However, the Toretto is 1-3 with three (3) straight losses. My best bets have been my worst bets. You can fade those until further notice. But I’m not going to complain about being over 50% overall so far. I got 19 picks for you this week. It’s a wonderful slate. Get your chores done before noon ET and enjoy the ride.
Our resident SEC Insider is in the same boat as me. Dead even overall with a bunch of losers for his/her/their Mouthwatering Picks. But I’m going to continue to tail the Insider’s picks because I feel a turnaround coming. I think this is a 3-0 week for him/her/them.
Our friendly neighborhood Insider Dash will hit one of these parlays one day. It’s only a matter of time. He went 3-of-4 in his parlay last week. Linc ‘The Sink’ Kienholz couldn’t hold up his end of the bargain with 300 pass+rush yards, but the Prop-aganda parlay will prevail.
And how about the Prem League Advisor? Back against the wall, two (2) picks given out and two (2) winners provided. The EPL is on a hiatus for the international break, but new life has been breathed into our Saturday mornings.
Where Griff was WRONG in Week 3:
Florida State at Alabama -19.5 – “FSU just fired its Athletic Director...Norvell is the most fired coach in college football, even more-so than Dave Arranda. It’s only a matter of time. Bama has looked awesome this season. Set it and forget it.” – Bama won by 14 but this never had a chance. Three (3) straight losses on the Toretto.
Kentucky at Texas A&M -16.5– “Kentucky is not playing at Kroger Field this week. I think the Midnight Yell is gonna put their minds in a pretzel.” – Kentucky won 31-21.
Where Griff was RIGHT in Week 4:
Mississippi State +4 at South Carolina – “Kamario Taylor for MSU has been awesome…I know Lanoris Sellers is the talk of the town, but I think the nation will know Kamario Taylor’s name by the end of this game.” – They trailed 16-0 then won 41-34.
Virginia Tech -3 at Maryland – “I’m just gonna keep riding Franklin and the Hokies until further notice.” – VT won 35-26.
Let’s get to the picks.
Last week: 6-7-1 / 2026 record: 23-20-1 / Since 2022: 393-374-11
Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (2026: 1-3 / Overall: 24-26-1): Oregon at USC OVER 62.5 – Both defenses stink. USC has gone way over this total in games against Rutgers and Lafayette. Oregon in each of its three games. It was 42-27 Oregon last year. Don’t overthink this one.
Clemson at California +1.5 – The only reason Clemson won vs. UNC last week is because the game was delayed for multiple hours. And they only covered the spread (-3) with a TD with one (1) minute left. Clemson is 1-2 ATS this season. JKS and Cal went cross-country to Syracuse a couple weeks ago and won outright at +4 dawgs. Clemson will not follow suit.
Texas -5.5 at Tennessee – Texas’ first ever trip to Knoxville. If this were a night game, the bet would be Tennessee. But it’s at 11 a.m. central time. Listen, I’m as low on Arch as anyone, but Tennessee has not been tested. They’ve beaten three teams that have not beaten an FBS team this year. Their freshman QB has been good, but Nico was a freshman and looked great in his first few games, then he played an SEC team (Oklahoma, I believe) and hell went to shit. I think Texas will outclass the Vols.
Illinois at OSU -27.5 – The Buckeyes are 3-0 ATS. Illinois (1-2 ATS) has been fraudulent since the start of the 2025 season. They barely covered against Southern Illinois last week (-35, won 48-10).
Wake Forest at Louisville -12.5 – UofL is just good, man. 3-0 ATS and SU. I think this line is this small because Wake only lost by 13 to Miami last week. But they still got torched by Mensah and Toney. The Deacons otherwise are 1-2 ATS, failing to cover against Purdue and Akron. Louisville OVERs are also 3-0 this year.
Virginia Tech -14 at Boston College – BC’s only cover this year was the “Red Bandana” game, at home on 9/11 against Rutgers after Schiano and Co. lost to UMass at home. They were -37.5 against Maine last week and only won 22-16. VT has been our squad this year. I’m not detracting.
San Diego State at Toledo -3 – The Rockets had a miracle, come-from-behind win last week to beat Temple 49-48 in OT. 2-1 ATS. Remember in Week 1, they almost beat Michigan State. And what the fuck is San Diego State doing in Toledo, Ohio? They’re 0-3 ATS. They got no business crossing three time zones for this game.
Ole Miss +3.5 at Florida – I’m not taking the drugs, Jon Sumrall.
Iowa at Michigan UNDER 38.5 – Small sample size, but neither of these teams have gone over this total in their P4 games this year. I think Bryce Underwood is Denard Robinson -2.0.
Oklahoma at Georgia -14 – Mateer is broken. He didn’t realize his guy was wide open for a touchdown last week until the crowd started yelling at him to throw it to the open man. I think Georgia wins 34-10.
UConn +3.5 at Miami (OH) and OVER 51.5 – Miami coming off a game against UC they easily could’ve won. Big letdown spot. And of the six (6) total games both teams have played, at least 52 points have been scored in each game.
Vanderbilt at Auburn -9.5 – Tailing the Insider.
Nebraska at Michigan State +5.5 – There’s just something off-putting about Nebraska. They’re 3-0 but haven’t played a P4 team. This is their first road game. I just don’t care for them. No reason to tail me here. Easy fade.
James Madison -6 at Old Dominion – Just following the numbers here. One team is 3-0 ATS and SU. The other is 0-3 ATS and 1-2 SU. They’ve played every season since 2022: JMU is 3-1 ATS and 4-0 SU.
South Carolina at Alabama -12.5 – Tailing the Insider.
Oklahoma State at West Virginia OVER 60.5 – The most exciting game on the slate. Sixty-three (63) degrees and partly cloudy in Morgantown. Five (5) mph wind gusts. We could see 90 points.
Missouri at Mississippi State -6.5 – I’m really high (not on drugs, Jon Sumrall) on MSU and Kamario Taylor. I can’t quit right now. Bulldogs are 3-0 ATS, including 2-0 against the P4 (Minnesota and South Carolina). MIZ-ZOU (1-2 ATS) covered against Kansas, but we’ve established on this blog that Kansas is hot garbage. I think this should be MSU -12.5.
Georgia Tech at Stanford +3.5 – GT’s loss to Colorado is looking worse by the week. They’re 0-3 ATS. Now, the cross-country trip. Stanford had the Week 1 win and cover against Hawaii. Then they played Miami (FL), maybe the best offense in the nation right now, and cross-country at Duke (L 35-7). I just don’t think there’s any logical reason for GT to be favored in this game. Stanford has had a tough go of it to start the year. Wake up with a dub.
SEC Insider Picks of the Weekend
Last week: 2-1 / 2026 record: 6-6 / Since 2022: 83-88-3
*the following is verbatim*
Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (2026: 0-3 / Overall: 20-24-1): South Carolina at Alabama -12.5 – This is where it all falls apart for Shane Beamer. Is there a more punchable face in college football? Tide at home will be too much for Beamer and co to handle. You can’t handle Mississippi State at home? You ain’t hanging in T-Town.
Vanderbilt at Auburn -9.5 – Welcome to the SEC Jared Curtis. I think DJ Durkin is a good DC (Maybe not a good person). Auburn hung around pretty well with Florida last week. Environment, bright lights, crazy looks from Durkin’s D will be too much for the Dores.
Oregon -3 at USC – I refuse to believe USC is actually any good. Oregon’s back is already against the wall. I like Lanning in a must win spot.
Insider Dash’s Prop-aganda Parlay of the Week
2026 record: 0-3/$10 bettor = -$30
*the following is verbatim*
Avery Johnson+Arch Manning+Kamario Taylor+Trinidad Chambliss – 300+ passing+rushing yards each = +1301 on DK ($10 to win $130)
This is a get right game. $100 gets you $1300 back. Is it NBA season yet?
Prem League Advisor Pick of the Weekend
2026 record: 2-3 / Since 2023: 15-16
*the following is verbatim*
Prem is on international break for the next two (2) weeks.
