Category: Uncategorized

Fellas, lady fellas, we’re 33-20 on the season after going 9-3 last week.

I may have to introduce a paywall with how well this season has gone for us.

I’m joking. I’d never. I don’t even know how to set that up.

Last week was fantastic…for some of us. The Prem League Adviser continues to wow us all with a perfect 5-0 record overall, 3-0 in 2024. Leicester came back late and saved the parlay last Saturday and we got another parlay to kick off this Saturday.

We do need to have another talk about the SEC Insider. After a 1-4 week, this (anonymous) person is just 4-11 in 2024 and on the brink of falling under .500 overall. The Insider is already 0-1 this week after taking The U to cover -17.5 last night. Just another reason why I like posting this blog Saturday morning instead of Thursday or Friday. I’m always thinking about the best interests of my readers. Maybe the SEC Insider should stick to picking SEC games? Until we see positive results from him/her/who knows, I’d take their picks with a grain of salt.

I’m 1-1 this week. Last night I took Miami (FL) 1H TT over 19.5, which lost, but I live bet The U to win after Virginia Tech decided to run a fake field goal instead of making it a 13 point game. That was the most idiotic thing I’ve seen since Mario Cristobal ran a play instead of kneeing it last season and Miami went on to lose. I’d like to think that Cristobal was thinking the same thing when he saw VT do that and he knew his team was gonna win last night. And I think it’s pretty clear that the hail mary was incomplete. The guy(s) didn’t complete the process of the catch. Nobody on VT ever has full control of the ball. The call to reverse it to incomplete looks bad because the refs called it a touchdown on the field initially.

Let’s go back to last week.

Where Griff was WRONG:

Mississippi State (+6.5) never had a chance. I faded the Insider on everything but they got the other side of this one right. Florida won 45-28 and Miss St. might be the worst team in the SEC.

I wrote that I hated OSU -40 after I did the research, and I was right about that, but I still made the pick for them to cover. I even made the case to take the over 52.5 instead and I still didn’t do that. OSU beat Marshall 49-14. The Buckeyes never cover those huge spreads and they don’t give a shit about non-conference opponents. I will probably be taking them this week against Michigan State.

Notre Dame could’ve gone for the cover at the end of their 28-3 win over Miami (OH) but they didn’t. 27.5 points was too much. Their offense is not good. They’re playing Louisville this week, whom I’ve been riding all year, and I will continue to do so.

Where Griff was RIGHT:

Indiana University is a football school. The Hoosiers are 4-0 and beating the shit out of everything in their way right now. They covered 28 points vs Charlotte in a 52-14 win and now they open B1G play at home. The train keeps on rolling.

Taking Utah to beat Oklahoma State made me nervous because it’s the first time I’ve faded the Insider’s mouth watering pick, but it was the correct thing to do. OK St. made a late comeback that fell short in a game that Utah controlled throughout, even without Cam Rising. I will most likely continue my trend of fading the Insider, for the most part, until further notice.

Following two historical trends has been working pre-tay good. Tennessee covered the first half spread for the fourth time this season when they led Oklahoma 19-3 at half last week. Service academy teams keep covering their first half spread when they are underdogs. Navy (+6 1H) was up 28-17 over Memphis after the first 30 minutes. I’m gonna dip my toes back into those wells again.

Alright. Happy Saturday. Let’s get to the picks.

CFB (9-3 last week / 33-20 in 2024 / 172-155-2 since 2022):

Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (3-1 in 2024, 12-7-1 overall): Indiana -7 vs Maryland: Two weeks in a row I’m tailing the Hoosiers to make a big splash. Last week I wrote, “I don’t think Coach Cig is worried about Maryland” before what was a potential trap game vs Charlotte. I was right. And it still rings true today. Maryland’s offense is one-dimensional with receiver Tai Felton taking in 54 targets already. The Terps can throw the ball, but so can Indiana. Like Coach Cig, I’m not worried about Maryland.

Oklahoma State +5.5 at Kansas State: I think the public is all over Kansas State so I’m fading gen pop. OK St looked awful against Utah last week and I don’t see Mike Gundy letting his team play that bad two weeks in a row. Kansas State may win the game, but I think the Pokes will look like the better team.

Arkansas +5.5 at Texas A&M (*late add): Arkansas’ offense looks like one of the best in the country. Taylen Green is awesome. This is just a pick-it-and-rip-it pick.

Louisville +7 at Notre Dame: I’ve been riding UofL all season and I will continue to do so. Notre Dame does not have a great offense. Louisville does. The total is 45.5. Notre Dame is not blowing out the Cardinals. This game will be close. If I did not go with IU as the Toretto this week, this game would be my pick.

North Carolina +1.5 at Duke: Mainstream Bias pick of the week (1-2 in 2024)

Clemson -22.5 vs Stanford: I am following the SEC Insider here. They make some convincing points.

Ohio State -23.5 at Michigan State AND over 47.5: Since Ryan Day took over in 2019, OSU is 4-1 ATS as 20 to 29.5 point favorites on the road. All five instances are B1G games. They did not cover their most recent game, 26.5 points at Maryland, in 2022. The over is also 5-0 in those games with the lowest point total being 49.5 points at Northwestern in 2019.

Penn State -18 vs Illinois: There is mainstream bias involved with this pick, but it’s also like Oregon-Oregon State a couple weeks ago. Illinois has looked too good to be 18 point dawgs, so I’m just taking Penn State. It’s also a 7:30 EST kickoff so I like the Nittany Lions at home in the night game.

South Alabama +20.5 at LSU (*late add)

Florida State (TT u20) at SMU (*late add)

*I will probably add to the card.

SEC Insider picks of the weekend (1-4 last week / 4-11 in 2024, 37-36-2 overall):

*the following is verbatim*

Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (1-3 in 2024, 12-7 overall): LSU -20.5 vs South Alabama: Beautiful weather in Baton Rouge. LSU has better football players. Better coaches. They should beat a mid major by 3 scores, right?

Miami U -17 vs Virginia Tech (*Editor’s note: you’re welcome)
Imo The U is approaching “take them at whatever the line is” territory. Insiders get this one on Friday to get the party started.

Ok St v Kansas St U 57.5
I don’t think this game gets to the 50s. Ollie Gordon and Avery Johnson could be the biggest 2 frauds in the country. But SEC Insider, Avery Johnson is only 19! Cut him some slack! – Look how much Jayson Tatum has accomplished as a 19 year old. Yep teams who will look to run the ball. Think Gundy will have this team prepared after a loss last week.

Clemson -22 vs Stanford
Name your price situation. Think everyone overreacted to Clemsons week 1 loss. Clemsons offense rolling. Stanford has to fly back across the country after being in NY last week. Total let down spot after that upset over Cuse. Clemson is more physical and Stanford will not have ever seen a night game environment like this.

Cincinnati +3.5 at Texas Tech
My trusted insider can’t be wrong AGAIN can he? This UC team should be undefeated and feels a bit slept on. Hard fought W for Texas Tech last week, think they throw up a stinker.

Prem League Advisor pick of the weekend (3-0 in 2024, 5-0 overall):

Nottingham Forest Double Chance + Brentford Double Chance / Parlay -121

*the following is verbatim*

The people may say, “-121” (sic) cmon prem advisor anyone can hit those, to that I respond, “A win is a win.”

I’m sticking with the Saturday morning 10 AM EST matches as they have been good to us. Forest is on fire this year, playing some great ball. Brentford at home, needing a result against a struggling West Ham squad. I see both of these teams picking up at least a point Saturday.

Fellas, lady fellas, we’re doing pretty good. Pre-tay, pre-tay, pretty good.

We’re 24-16 to start this college football season (full disclosure: I took San Jose St. +12.5 last night. I may need to start releasing this prior to Friday night) and went 8-6 last week. I added a few live bets last week (Bama -13.5, LSU +5.5 and Georgia -6.5), going 2-1 there, but we would’ve been over .500 regardless. That’s the name of the game, right? To win over 50% of the bets? Well, we’re at a 60% success rate so far with one losing week (6-7 week 2).

The SEC Insider, though, is off to a rough start in 2024. Just 3-7 overall, 0-3 last week and already 0-1 this week with a parlay that couldn’t even make it to Saturday. Maybe I shouldn’t be posting this blog until Saturday morning.

And a special shoutout the Prem League Advisor. Guy (or gal) is 4-0 overall and 2-0 on picks this year. I always take the Saturday morning Prem League bet and you should as well.

Let’s recap last week, Colin Cowherd-style, beginning with the worst losses, because of INTEGRITY.

Where Griff was WRONG:

I took the wrong side in the Toretto. North Texas (miserably) failed to cover +10 at Texas Tech, losing 66-21, even though I wrote that the over made sense. I had the right idea, but just took the wrong side, and for that, I’m sorry. It’s the first loss on the Toretto this year. I promise I will do better.

As mentioned, trailing the (anonymous) SEC Insider has not been great in 2024. Shoutout to Kentucky for having an electric atmosphere at Kroger Field in what was one of the most memorable games I’ve ever been to (I saw someone get punched in left eye and the left temple, kinda sick). But Georgia just couldn’t do anything on offense most of the game and only won 13-12, as a 22-point favorite, thanks to Mark Stoops being a worse game manager than Nathaniel Hackett. Take a fucking chance, Mark! You think field goals are gonna win you a game against the (former) #1 team in the country? You’re in plus territory with under two minutes then take a penalty and end up punting? Maybe go for it on at least one fourth down. He was probably dreaming of College Station that entire night and now he’s never gonna get another opportunity like that. Mark Stoops’ career will die in Lexington.

Colorado State never had a chance. I didn’t watch a second of this game because it started at the same time as UK-UGA and I’m glad I didn’t. Colorado won 28-9 and Shedeur gave Rams QB Brayden Fowler-Nicolsi all the smoke. Just a bad miscalculation from me.

Side note: I still don’t think Shedeur should be a first round pick next year but some dumb GM (in Cleveland, probably) will throw all their eggs in the Sanders basket and they will be rewarded with whatever is depressing to find in an egg on an Easter egg hunt. Perhaps a Werther’s Original. I imagine a Werther’s Original would be upsetting for a child born after 2010 to find in an Easter egg. I would love a Werther’s Original right now.

Where Griff was RIGHT:

Oregon covered 16.5 in their 49-14 win over Oregon State. I knew that line was just weird as hell and I’m glad I stuck to my gut on it.

Georgia State beat Vandy straight up, 36-32, despite being 10.5 point dawgs. I shoulda sprinkled moneyline but I’ll take the ATS win.

The Hoosiers absolutely steamrolled UCLA, 42-13, in a primetime victory in the Rose Bowl. Coach Cig is turning around this program and I’m actually enjoying following IU football for the first time since Nate Sudfeld was the quarterback.

Happy Saturday. Let’s get to the picks.

CFB (8-6 last week / 24-16 in 2024 / 163-151-2 since 2022):

Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (2-1 in 2024, 11-7-1 overall): Indiana -28 vs Charlotte: IU starts Big Ten play next week at home vs Maryland, so this could be seen as a trap game. I don’t think Coach Cig is worried about Maryland. Right after he got hired, he went to Assembly Hall and called out Ohio State, Michigan and Purdue. He said. “I don’t take a backseat to anybody and don’t plan on starting now.” Does that sound like a guy who is worried about Maryland? IU has outscored their three inferior opponents 150-23 this season. I think Cig wants to inflict pain upon Charlotte.

Mississippi State +6.5 vs Florida AND over 58: I’m fading the SEC Insider here. In what world should Florida be favored by nearly a TD on the road in the SEC? I don’t care that Miss St got blown out at home by Toledo last week. Billy Napier should NEVER be a favorite again. Florida is 1-7 ATS in their last eight. Since 2021, they’re 5-9 ATS on the road and the over is 10-4 in those games.

Ohio State -40 vs Marshall: Hand up, I hate this pick, but I made it before I did some research. OSU is 4-5-1 ATS as a favorite of 39 or more since 2017 and just 1-3-1 since 2022. I just felt that OSU should easily cover this off a bye and with the expectations they have. However, the overs in such games are 7-3 in that same time-span. O/U as of this writing is 52.5.

Navy (1H +6) vs Memphis: “In the past decade, Army, Navy and Air Force are 91-59 ATS as underdogs in the first half spread” when facing non-service academy teams. We hit this with Air Force vs Baylor last week so I’m riding again. Also, I’m not sure how good Memphis really is. A win against Florida State is meaningless now.

Notre Dame -27.5 vs Miami (OH): Since 2017, ND is 7-2 ATS in September when playing with at least one loss. Since the 2017 season, after a win by 20+ points, they are 23-14-1 ATS.

Louisville -10 vs Georgia Tech: As I wrote a couple weeks ago, I think Louisville is a top-15 team (right now they are #19) and they will continue to show it. Off a bye and covering 29 and 39.5 point spreads so far is a great sign for this team. GT, meanwhile, has a win vs a shitty FSU team in Ireland, wins vs Georgia State and Vermont, and a loss at Syracuse, who lost to Stanford in the Dome last night. I don’t know how good GT is, I just think UofL is a whole lot better. And shoutout to Roman Reigns and Cody Rhodes for that Smackdown promo at GT last night. Very cool from the WWE.

Utah -1 at Oklahoma State: This is a big play for me because I’m fading the SEC Insider’s MWP. Just can’t trust this individual right now. Their head is not in the right space. Perhaps the upcoming election is taking a toll on this person. Reports are that Cam Rising is playing. Since 2020, in ranked vs ranked matchups, favorites are 124-93-5 ATS. Note: Nebraska did lose last night as a favorite vs Illinois in such matchup.

Miami (FL) -16.5 at South Florida: Yeah, USF played a good game in Tuscaloosa before getting torched in the final minutes of that game. Cam Ward will be in New York for the Heisman ceremony. Over the last 20 years, Miami (FL) is 15-4 ATS when playing another Florida team on the road or at a neutral site.

Tennessee (1H -3.5) at Oklahoma: In six years as a head coach at UCF and Tennessee, Josh Heupel’s teams are “43-17-2 ATS in the first half – the most profitable ATS of 305 head coaches. That includes a record of 22-7-1 1H ATS away from home.” Tennessee covered the 1H spread in week one vs Chattanooga (-24.5, leading 45-0), week two vs NC State (-4.5, leading 20-3) and week 3 vs Kent State (-31.5, leading 65-0). Just follow the numbers.

Oregon State -5 vs Purdue: Since 2021, Oregon State are 16-4 ATS in home games when they are favored by less than a touchdown. Since 2021, the Beavers are 5-0 SU/ATS at home off a straight-up loss. This line has moved to 3.5.

SEC Insider picks of the weekend (0-3 last week / 3-7 in 2024, 36-32-2 overall):

*Editors note: last week, this Insider (could be anyone) texted me “Oklahoma v Tulsa 1st half U 23.5” even though Oklahoma played Tulane and Oklahoma State played Tulsa. Hand up, I should’ve caught that. But we should all take caution with this person’s picks until we see some more wins.

*the following is verbatim*

Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (1-2 in 2024, 12-6 overall): Oklahoma State -2.5 vs Utah (*Editor’s note: I can confirm that OK St is hosting Utah today) – Gundy and the Pokes are 17-6 in games where the spread is -3/+3 in the last 10 years. Utah 2-7 in last 9 road games against ranked teams. This Cam Rising stuff is getting tired. Is he hurt or not? Just weird. Love Gundy and this team and think they’re poised for a run.

Ohio State -39.5 vs Marshall – If tOSU is who we think they are they should win by 50. Look for the offense and the silver bullets to really be clicking with conference play starting next week

ECU +6.5 vs Liberty – I think Liberty is fraudulent. A trusted CFB insider loves this play. My colleague can’t be wrong two weeks in a row can they? (*Editor’s note: the Insider is a tad skeptical of this play after learning that potential 1st round pick from ECU, CB Shavon Revel Jr., tore his ACL in practice this week, texting me, “May need an edit”)

Florida -6 vs Mississippi State – as bad as Florida is, Mississippi State could be 10x worse. Full rebuild in Starkville. What the hell happened against Toledo last week? Word is MSU (sic) didnt have a player good enough to start for Toledo. That’s sad.

Bonus parlay (!!!): Ok State -2.5/Vandy +20/Tenn -7/ECU +6/Ark +3/Tulane -3/Cuse -9 – LOSS (Cuse lost by two at home to Stanford last night)

We’re all due for a 7 legger to hit eh? (*Editor’s note: we’re not)

Prem League Advisor pick of the weekend (2-0 in 2024, 4-0 overall):

Tottenham ML + Leicester City Double Chance / Parlay +118

Tottenham has had a really tough schedule to start losing to both Arsenal and Newcastle. At Home Saturday I expect a hungry team to come out with the win. Leicester has Everton at Home. I think Everton get relegated this year. I would think at worst this is a draw but think Leicester is the better side.

Quick write-up. I’ll have boots on the ground for the UK-UGA game tomorrow so no time to write in the morning.

Went 6-7 last week (I added Arkansas live +6.5) with some bad screw jobs in the early slate. The Toretto hit for the second week in a row. The mainstream bias has me on a game tonight (Friday). Prem League is back this weekend which means a pick from the Advisor, who had boots on the ground in Europe last week.

Let’s get to the picks.

CFB (6-7 last week / 15-10 in 2024 / 154-145-2 since 2022):

Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (2-0 in 2024, 11-6-1 overall): North Texas +10 at Texas Tech: Tech held off Abilene Christian (?) 52-51 in overtime in week one then fell at Washington State, 37-16, last week. North Texas is 2-0 with wins at South Alabama (they scored 87 points Thursday night), 52-38, and a 15 pt home win vs who gives a shit. The over (69.5) makes sense here but 10 points vs the 129th ranked passing defense, while the UNT QB has 737 passing yards in two games, is too enticing.

UNLV +9.5 at Kansas (Friday): Mainstream Bias Pick of the Week (0-2 in 2024)

Missouri -14.5 vs Boston College: I just think Mizzou is head and shoulders better than BC and SEC owns ACC (see last week’s Tennessee pick and disregard the Auburn pick). BC has wins at Florida State (we know they suck now) and 56-0 vs Duquesso. Cool. Mizzou Coach Drink is trying to run up the score on their opponents to prove that his team belongs in the SEC title conversation. They’ve outscored G5 teams 89-0. Also cool. Drink needs to win big vs a P4 team to prove his theory. I’m gonna back him to do just that.

Oregon -16.5 at Oregon State: This is weird, right? Watching Barstool Pick Em this week helped set my brain straight on this. No reason for Oregon to be favored by this much at OSU. So I’m taking Oregon.

Texas A&M at Florida (under 47): Florida replaced Mertz at QB with a freshman, who played well against Samford, but will have to deal with a real defense this week and is probably pooping his pants. Notre Dame’s offense may not be that great, but A&M still looked good on D in that week one game. They beat McNeese St last week, 52-10, but I just think game one of SEC play will bring out the best of the defenses in this one.

Georgia State +10.5 vs Vanderbilt: Kinda like the Oregon-OSU game, this should be an easy bet on Vandy. But I think Georgia State has em in a good spot. Vandy will win, but the Panthers keep it close. Maybe a trap game for Vandy cause they’re at Mizzou next week and they’re riding high with two wins so they think they’ll have an easy win here vs 1-1 Georgia State and they’ll get too hyped up about that Mizzou game and won’t think too much of this game. I’m in my own head with this one. Definitely fade it.

Georgia -22 at Kentucky: Trailing the SEC Insider.

Air Force (1H +9.5) at Baylor: “In the past decade, Army, Navy and Air Force are 90-59 ATS as underdogs in the first half spread” when facing non-service academy teams. I’m not sure how much life Dave Arranda has left in him. Facing the option doesn’t help. Also, AF beat Baylor in a bowl game in 2022 by 15 points as a 3.5 point underdog, if that matters.

Indiana -3 at UCLA: Just like Donald J. Trump on Tuesday night, I’m taking the bait, because I just can’t resist it. Hoosiers favored at the Rose Bowl in primetime on Saturday night. You kidding me? I would ABSOLUTELY avoid taking this bet if I were you but I just can’t pass on it. But a stat for ya, IU has covered three straight ATS on the road going back to last season.

Colorado State +7 vs Colorado: Give me one reason why you’d wanna take Colorado in this game and I’ll tell you that’s a bad reason. Colorado has never been able to back up their talk. Rado St made this a huge game last year. It’s gonna be a huge game Saturday night. Rams QB Brayden Fowler-Nicolsi said, “…we’ll see how far Instagram followers gets them.” Colorado State wants the smoke. I want the Rams.

Tennessee (1H -31.5) vs Kent State: In six years as a head coach at UCF and Tennessee, Josh Heupel’s teams are “42-17-2 ATS in the first half – the most profitable ATS of 305 head coaches.” Tennessee covered the 1H spread in week one vs Chattanooga (-24.5, leading 45-0) and week two vs NC State (-4.5, leading 20-3). Just follow the numbers.

SEC Insider picks of the weekend (1-2 last week / 3-3 in 2024, 36-28-2 overall):

*the following is verbatim*

I want to preface this by saying that I didn’t like much of anything I saw on the board this week. But we are here to give picks so that’s what I am going to do.

Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (1-1 in 2024, 12-5 overall): Georgia -22 at UK

I think Stoops has quit on this team. He sounds defeated and wishes he was in College Station. I think Brock Vandagriff knows what’s on the other side of the ball and will be looking to tuck all game. Beck spreads it around and good D from the Dawgs. Will the fans show? Plenty of cheap tix online!

Oklahoma v Tulsa 1st half U 23.5
Was given this pick. I think OK D is pretty good and their offense kind of stinks.

Colorado State +7 (ML)
Revenge for the Rams. Shilo, the heart and soul of the team, is out. (You like those commas Griff?) (*Editor’s note: I do.) I’m going ML. This could be a pure hate play by me but this is where I am going.

Prem League Advisor pick of the weekend (1-0 in 2024, 3-0 overall): Man City + Man U ML parlay +100: Had drinks with a couple from Manchester the other night. World class banter. Did not ask who they supported. We will take both teams just in case in honor of Rory and Ella.

INTEGRITY.

in·teg·ri·ty

noun

Definition: the quality of being honest and having strong moral principles; moral uprightness. (“he is known to be a man of integrity”)

Origin: late Middle English; from French intégrité or Latin integritas, from integer, meaning ‘whole’ or ‘complete’.

————————————————————–

Integrity says everything about a man/woman/other.

I don’t understand how someone can go about their lives without having any. One who doesn’t have any integrity knows they don’t have integrity, or knows they are lacking integrity in a certain moment, yet they choose to go about their lives either not caring about the fact that they are deprived of integrity or that other people won’t recognize their absence of integrity.

We can see it.

It’s like when you’re golfing and one of your playing partners’ tee shots goes into the woods then they’re looking for their ball, alone, and suddenly they find it. Or, when one of your playing partners doesn’t feel like looking for their own tee shot so they quickly drive to the next ball nearest where their tee shot most-likely landed and put a leaf over the ball, shielding the logo and number, and try to hit it before you can can get there and utter the words, “I’m pretty sure that’s my ball.”

It was.

It’s like Judge Lance Ito ruling that OJ Simpson (R.I.P?) didn’t do it.

But we know.

Or Vegas voiding all tickets for the Kentucky (-26.5)/Southern Miss game last week because it was called in the third quarter due to inclement weather even though the Cats were up 31-0 at the time of cancellation and UK still were awarded the victory but you see gamblers counting that game on their records despite the fact that it was a void, not a push, but a void, and thus shouldn’t be counted on their records.

I’m not one of those gamblers.

I could say that I went 8-3 with my picks last week, but I’m an integrious person. I only went 7-3. I officially went 5-3 on my picks last Saturday, but I added USC +4 vs LSU Sunday night and Boston College +17.5 vs Florida State on Monday (I forgot to place my bet before the game started so I bet the game right after opening kickoff, which is why I got 17.5).

INTEGRITY. (*reminder, I have a low-paying job. $10 is one unit for me)

In my last post you all took my word that, in Week Zero, I bet Georgia Tech +10.5 vs FSU and North Dakota State +9.5 vs Colorado. And you accepted it like the God-fearing men/women/other most of you probably are.

INTEGRITY.

But even God loses some battles. I’m also 1-1 on the NFL through two games.

INTEGRITY.

We should all strive, not just for greatness, but to live with integrity. I won’t post my (very small) bet slips in the blog each week, but I’m happy to provide proof if anyone cares enough to ask.

Now, let’s get to the picks.

CFB (9-3 in 2024 / 148-138-2 since 2022):

Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (1-0 in 2024, 10-6-1 overall): Nicholls State at LSU (over 58.5): In 2022, LSU lost the opener to Florida State then won 65-17 vs a non-major in week two. In 2023, LSU lost to Florida State then beat a non-major 72-10 in week two. In 2024, LSU lost the opener to USC then played a non-major in week two…

Michigan +7 vs Texas: I just can’t pass up on taking the reigning champs as a home dog getting a touchdown. I like the under too, but after reading a great story about Michigan QB Davis Warren beating cancer in The Athletic this week, I’m on the Wolverines.

Cincinnati -2 vs Pitt: Just a gut feeling. Sorsby was slinging it for UC last week (vs Towson) and the Cats are getting back their best defensive player, DT Dontay Corleone.

Tennessee Tech at Georgia (under 62.5): The over never hits in these Georgia games. Kirby doesn’t care about blowing these kinds of teams out.

Louisville -28.5 vs Jacksonville State: I think UofL is a top-15 team and they will show it against Jax St.

Kentucky -9.5 vs South Carolina: Redemption.

Auburn -13 vs Cal: I have no idea what a school like Cal-Berkley is doing in Auburn, Alabama on a Saturday afternoon in September. Also, the SEC Insider’s mouth is watering at this game, so I love it.

Alabama -31 vs South Florida: Until Alabama shows it’s not the same team that Nick Saban coached for all those years, I’ll continue to hammer them (responsibly) against far inferior opponents.

Ohio State -37.5 vs Western Michigan: I have no idea why this spread is so low. Seems too easy to pick.

Tennessee -8.5 vs NC State: As you’ll see below, SEC owns ACC. Nico is real. Neutral site. I’m not over-thinking this.

Clemson -16.5 vs Appalachian State: Tailing the Insider here.

Colorado at Nebraska (over 55.5): Mainstream bias pick of the week (0-1 in 2024)

SEC Insider picks of the weekend (2-1 in 2024, 33-25-2 overall):

*the following is verbatim*

Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (1-0 in 2024, 12-4 overall): Auburn -13 vs Cal-
Cal is going to be a bad football team this year. 31-13 over UC Davis last week while UC Davis threw 3 (sic) Ints. Lots of excitement from the Plains this (sic) off season. Too many athletes on (sic) Aub and think Freeze uses this as a spot to try to impress the rest of the country. SEC owns ACC…

Clemson -16.5 vs Appalachian State
I think Dabo finds a way to rally the troops. Players are saying the right things in the media. Coach not so much. This team isn’t as bad as the score showed last week.

Oregon -21 vs Boise State
Boise ain’t running silly on this front 7 like they did last week. 3 time zones in 6 days for Boise. Boise gave up 45 to GSU – no defense. I see Gabriel and cast putting points up after (sic) lasts week low output.

Hand up mea culpa – subscribers received a Sabalenka/Navarro U 8.5 games in Set 1. Need to be better. (INTEGRITY.)

Prem League Advisor pick of the weekend (1-0 in 2024, 3-0 overall):

Bye week for the Prem and for the Advisor innit. Games resume next Saturday.

I started tracking what I eat on a daily basis a few months ago.

I wasn’t overweight and I didn’t have any health issues that required me to do so, but they say abs are made in the kitchen, so I wanted to see what was holding me back. Also, one of the big reasons why I got my tattoo was to motivate me to get in/stay in shape. What I discovered is how much sodium I was consuming in a day (about 2-3x the recommended amount), all the carbs and fat in some of the processed shit I was eating (goodbye, pretzels) and how much snacking I was doing. I was lifting 5x a week and kept my cardio up, but that wasn’t enough to get me to look like Ryan Gosling in The Fall Guy (a not-great movie).

Since early April, I’ve dropped about 20-25 lbs. while doing 10 minutes of core every day. Getting my 10,000 steps in almost every day has helped with that, too. I’m looking better, but I’m not quite ready to quit my (low-paying) day job to start modeling for Calvin Klein like Kate McKinnon in that SNL skit mocking Justin Bieber. But we’re making progress. That’s all we can do every day. Make a little progress.

For the second year in a row, I wasn’t going to write this blog again to start the season. Last year it was because my at-the-time job was getting overwhelming and the only thing I wanted to do at the end of the day was take a five-finger pour of Teremana to the face. This year, I was just lacking motivation. I stopped writing last season after my dad died and I hadn’t felt the urge to start again. I’ve barely even been gambling over the last few months and haven’t cared to put in the research for football season either (why am I saying that like it’s a bad thing?).

But I got a text the other day. It was from the SEC Insider. Then, the Prem League Advisor chimed in. The chat was going. The blood was flowing. Wheels turning. The bottle of Teremana (Blanco) in my freezer was staring at me like the Green Goblin mask.

I left the bottle in its place……………for now.

But the blog goes on. It must.

There was little-to-no research done for my picks this week. It’s Week 1. I don’t think it makes sense to deep-dive into these games because everyone has been prepping for months for this one game. I just looked at the lines and chose what I thought was right. I’m 2-0 so far (GT +10.5 vs FSU and NDSU +9.5 vs “We Comin” University). Why can’t we go 9-0 today?

Glad to be back. Let’s get to the picks.

CFB (2-0 in 2024 / 32-39-1 in 2023 / 141-135-2 since 2022):

Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (3-1 in 2023, 9-6-1 overall): Miami (FL) -2.5 at Florida – This is more about Florida just being bad than trusting Miami to win. Three straight losing seasons for the Gators and they still have Billy Napier and Graham Mertz. Why do we think it’s going to all-of-a-sudden be better? Mario Cristobal blowing that one game last year when he could’ve taken a knee but decided to run it instead definitely makes me nervous about taking The U, but Florida is just not gonna be good.

Georgia -13.5 vs Clemson – The line keeps moving in favor of Clemson bettors. I don’t care. We know Georgia is competing for a national championship. We can’t say the same about Clemson.

West Virginia +7.5 vs Penn State – Purely picked because of the atmosphere in Morgantown. I’ll for sure take a touchdown (+.5) if you’ll give it to me.

Akron at Ohio State (under 57) – Akron should not score a single point. I don’t think OSU keeps running up the score that high.

Alabama -32 vs Western Kentucky – I have not seen a single negative report out of Alabama camp over the last couple months. Now, I’m not on the message boards, but nothing major from the mainstream media tells me all is well in Tuscaloosa. This should be business as usual for DeBoer’s first game. He needs to make a statement as well.

UNLV at Houston (over 55.5) – Mainstream bias pick of the week.

Notre Dame at Texas A&M (under 46) – Mike Elko knows how to defend Riley Leonard. He also needs to win to get the fanbase fully invested in him. ND lost Joe Alt and another starter this offseason and I think their O-line is young in general. I just don’t see a lot of offense here.

Fresno St. at Michigan (1H under 23.5) – Tailing the SEC Insider’s Mouth Watering Pick of the Week, which is 11-4 overall.

Kentucky -26.5 vs Southern Mississippi – I’ve seen the Cats in action multiple times on NCAA 25 and know what they’re capable of. They HAVE to hit this number.

SEC Insider picks of the weekend (9-5-1 in 2023, 31-24-2 overall):

Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (3-0 in 2023, 11-4 overall): Fresno St. at Michigan (1H under 23.5)

Georgia -13.5 vs Clemson

LSU -4 vs USC

Prem League Advisor pick of the weekend (2-0 in 2023, 2-0 overall):

Brentford (-135 ML) vs Southampton