Category: Uncategorized

ATONEMENT.

a·tone·ment

noun

Definition(s): reparation for a wrong or injury; (in religious contexts) reparation or expiation for sin.

Origin: early 16th century (denoting unity or reconciliation, especially between God and man); from at one + the suffix -ment, influenced by medieval Latin adunamentum ‘unity’, and earlier onement from an obsolete verb one ‘to unite’.

Today is Yom Kippur, also known the Day of Atonement, the second of the High Holy days, but THE holiest day of the year in Judaism (Rosh Hashanah, the Jewish New Year, was last week).

Last (Friday) night, I attended services with my mom. I took time to reflect on my sins from the past year. I’d like to use this safe space to ask for forgiveness for a few things.

FORGIVE ME, for not fasting during this holiday, as-is custom during Yom Kippur, and instead, last night after services, eating the leftover pork fried rice and chicken w/broccoli from Johnny Chan 2 that my mother and I indulged in prior to services.

FORGIVE ME, for continuing to follow in the footsteps of the (anonymous) SEC Insider. They are a putrid 9-16 ATS this season. Last week, they went 2-4, losing the Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (Tennessee -13.5) and Alabama (-22.5) straight-up. I already have regrets on backing their MWP today. But my loyalty for this individual is too strong. I just can’t help myself. Our stars do align on one other game. You should not follow the Insider until things turn around. Perhaps repenting their sins is in their near future.

FORGIVE ME, for continuing to believe in Louisville football as a top-15 team. The signs showed us that fourth quarter luck played a big role in UofL starting out 3-0-1 ATS prior to last week. I backed them again, -6.5 vs SMU at home, and they trailed the whole game, losing 34-27. I shall follow the Cardinals no more on the gridiron. My toes became too crinkly.

FORGIVE ME, for spending my hard(ly) earned dollars on Bengals tickets and the Brown family. Without Joe Burrow, we wouldn’t have a pot to piss in. I’ve attended two Who Dey games this year, both ending in heart-breaking fashion, so I shall do that no more (unless we’re either playing for a playoff spot or are in the playoffs, somehow).

While not perfect (I am covering at a 59% clip, though), and there is much more to atone for, I feel comfortable moving into this New Year with a clear head. And I think it’s important to reflect on some of the positives from year’s last:

I am a proud Indiana Hoosier football fan, the first team in the realm to qualify for a bowl game, and a follower of the “Light the Cig” movement. In this blog, we are 4-0 ATS betting on the Hoosiers. Troy Aikman is heaping praise on Coach Cig. Together, we can all be undaunted.

I am a proud follower of the Prem League Advisor. They are 4-1 this year, 6-1 overall in this blog. No Prem this week, but I’m glad to have their services in this blog.

I am proud of my efforts to improve my eating habits and hit the gym almost every day before work. I shall carry that work ethic into this New Year.

I am grateful for YOU, the readers of this blog. Together, we can grow stronger and continue to dish out winners to those who seek them on a weekly basis. If there is anything you seek, answers or repentance or recommendations for a good delicatessen (Marx Bagels), I am here for you.

Now, before we get to the picks, I’d like to say that most of the stats I get are from the Action Network. Not all of them, but most of them. They do a great job of painting a picture. But every picture has its own interpretations.

My interpretations are hitting at a 59% clip, so far.

Alright. Happy Saturday. Let’s get to the picks.

CFB (9-7 last week / 48-33-1 in 2024 / 187-168-3 since 2022):

Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (5-1 in 2024, 14-7-1 overall): Arizona at BYU -3: Last (Friday) night, I also asked for forgiveness for not betting on BYU football yet this season, despite the mormon Cougars having a jewish QB, Jake Retzlaff, and being 5-0 ATS/SU this season. Time to back the tribe. Gut Yontif.

Friday: Northwestern at Maryland (under 45.5) – LOST

Clemson -20 at Wake Forest: Clemson is a good team. The Georgia game was an outlier. Since week one, Clemson has covered their next four games in MY book (last week I locked in at -14.5 before the line moved to Clemson -16.5 at closing. They beat Florida State 29-13. I can prove it, if you’d like, because of INTEGRITY.). An odd stat: in the game after playing Florida State, Clemson are 12-3 ATS under Dabo, winning by 25 ppg.

Washington at Iowa -2.5: Iowa is good. They got their shit rocked by tOSU last week but that was expected. Washington is mid. They traveled to Rutgers a couple weeks ago, their first B1G road game, and lost. They came back home and beat another mid team in Michigan. Redemption from the natty last year. Now they cross two timezones for a game in middle Earth. You think anyone on the Huskies has ever eaten a Casey’s pizza? This is another “welcome to the B1G” moment for Washington. After a loss, Kirk Ferentz is 15-5-1 ATS at home as a favorite or underdog of less than a touchdown.

Wisconsin at Rutgers (under 43.5): This just has the feelings of a classic B1G game. Wisconsin did score 52 last week but Purdue is just a bad team that already fired its offensive coordinator a few weeks ago, the great Graham Harrell. The Badgers have scored 21 and 10 points against their other two Power Five (Four) opponents, USC and Alabama, respectively. Against three Power opponents, Rutgers’ scoring has gone from 26 points to 21 points to seven points.

California at Pittsburgh -3.5: I am tailing the SEC Insider here because I believe in Pitt. They are 5-0 ATS/SU. I’ve seen lots of the mainstream bias heaping praise on their quarterback. Just gonna ride with it.

Texas -15.5 vs Oklahoma: Mainstream Bias pick of the week (3-2 in 2024)

Purdue at Illinois -23: As stated above, Purdue is not a good football team. They cannot score. Fellas keep de-committing from Purdue. Illinois is 4-1. I’m just betting against Purdue. Plain and simple.

Penn State at USC +5: I would not advise you to take this pick. I’m betting on Penn State having their annual meltdown a little earlier than the tOSU game in a few weeks. The Nittany Lions will have two losses this season. They can still win this game, but there has been so much negative attention on USC over the last couple weeks that it makes me feel good about this bet. This is basically my BATMBPOTW (Bet Against The Mainstream Bias Pick Of The Week).

Cincinnati +3.5 at UCF: This is a tail from a trusted UC Insider. I also think UCF are in shambles after losing at home, as 13 point favorites, to Colorado a couple weeks ago then losing at Florida, 24-13, as one-point road favorites last week. Bearcats are coming off a bye. Since last season, under Scott Satterfield, UC are 2-1 SU with a rest advantage, if that helps you at all.

Florida at Tennessee (1H -7.5): I’ve given you the stats in my previous blogs. Josh Heupel’s teams have covered the first half spread 67% of the time in his 6+ year coaching career. A new one: when his teams are laying -7 or more in the first half, they are 29-9-2 ATS in the first half. Tennessee didn’t cover -7.5 last week at Arkansas. There’s no way they don’t hit the number two weeks in a row, is there?

Air Force (1H +3.5) at New Mexico: In the past decade, Army, Navy and Air Force are 92-59 ATS as underdogs in the first half spread when facing non-service academy teams. Air Force has already covered in this spot against Baylor a few weeks ago. We’ve made this bet a few other times this year as well.

Ohio State at Oregon (1H under 26.5): Sources close the Buckeyes, and Joel Klatt, believe that tOSU will want to establish the run early on in this game. No stats. I just like the logic. I also REALLY wanna take Oregon +3 but I’m just not sure yet. I will probably take a side in this game but it’ll be a late add.

Ole Miss at LSU +3.5: You should actually not take this pick. I regret it. Against my best judgement, I tailed the SEC Insider again and his/her/their Mouth Watering Pick of the Week. They got bad info. Ole Miss will most likely have their top WR back. I should not have taken this this early in the week. Please advise.

Vanderbilt at Kentucky -13.5 AND under 44.5: Vanderbilt are not Texas A&M from the Manziel years. I love the Pavia story (great one in The Athletic this week), but I sense a letdown here. Since 2021, Vanderbilt are just 2-9 ATS after a win. In that same time, Kentucky are 15-9-1 ATS in the game following a win. Since 2021, in SEC games, Vanderbilt hit the under at a 54% clip while Kentucky games hit the under in conference games at a 63% clip. I feel better about the under than the spread.

SEC Insider picks of the weekend (2-4 last week / 9-16 in 2024, 42-41-2 overall):

*the following is verbatim*

Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (2-4 in 2024, 13-8 overall): LSU +3.5 vs Ole Miss – I think LSU may win outright. Ole Miss is massively overrated imo. No Trae Harris at WR for Ole Miss (*Editor’s note: Harris is probable to play, as of Friday night). Tiger Stadium at night getting 3.5? Sign me up.

Florida +15 at Tennessee –
Huge rivalry game here and know everyone is going to give Tennessee their best shot. I see this one being close. Can you believe Nico ran out of bounds on 4th down last week? Fraud alert

*Editor’s note: The following is a text message exchange between myself (Griff) and the SEC Insider (could be anyone).

SEC Insider: Please get rid of the Oklahoma game. New injury info just came to light. Replace it with South Carolina +21
Griff: What’s the mainstream bias saying? What did I just tell you about?
SEC Insider: Oklahoma is cooked at WR. I thought their top guy was gonna play
Griff: Whats your gut telling you to do? Dig deep
SEC Insider: Throw that game in the trash
Griff: Ok

South Carolina +21 vs Alabama

Oklahoma +14.5 vs Texas –
See above, major rivalry where anything can happen. Expecting a dawg fight. 2 huge weeks in a row for Texas. Think Texas could go a little vanilla and try to burn clock if they are up. Could be a back door situation if that happens.

Pitt -3.5 vs Cal –
Cal getting over an emotional loss to Miami and having to travel across country? No chance

tOSU -3 at Oregon –
Have you ever seen a better collection of players on a roster in college football? I think OSU matches up well. Can kill you on the ground or in the air. I’m out on Gabriel. I’m not reading too much into the time zone stats for this situation.

Prem League Advisor pick of the weekend (4-1 in 2024, 6-1 overall):

Prem League is on a bye week.

*Editor’s note: Pochettino is getting the fellas ready for action tonight against Panama. Folks are saying it’s a more anticipated debut than Arch Manning in the burnt orange. 9pm EST. TNT. I’ll take USMNT money line and Pulisic to score a goal at whatever his odds are.

We’re still winning.

We tip-toed that line last week (7-6-1), but winning is winning. However, some of the games we lost we’re pretty bad losses, so I need to clean that up and will address it below. But last week was significant for the blog for a few reasons.

The SEC Insider got back on track with a winning week, going 3-2. That’s a great sign because I think this individual got back to (mostly) picking games on their own without the help from other anonymous sources.

Because of this development, I’ve decided to tail (almost) all of the Insider’s picks this week and stray from mockery and verbal humiliation in this blog, a-la Will Ferrell dissing his dog. Good vibes from here on out.

On the other hand, the Prem League Advisor finally felt the hand of defeat, suffering their first loss in six picks. A -121 parlay couldn’t get the job done so the Advisor is going back to the drawing board, making another parlay, but this time including a team that is pretty much guaranteed to win. This parlay can’t lose two weeks in a row, can it? No chance. I’m all over it, and you should be too. The Advisor has promised to be better and I believe they will be. When promises are made in this blog, they are delivered.

Before we look back at last week, last night I went 1-1, taking the trendy Syracuse to cover against UNLV (they won in overtime) and Oregon -23 vs Michigan State. Fuck Jonathan Smith (Mich St coach) for kicking a field goal down 24 with less than a minute left. He came from Oregon State so there has to be some bad blood there and he no doubt knew what the spread was and wanted to piss off everyone who took Oregon to cover. Mission accomplished. That’s gonna be bad luck for MSU the rest of the year. I’m putting a hex on the Spartans. Christ almighty.

Alright.

Where Griff was WRONG:

Oklahoma State (+5.5) at Kansas Sate: They lost 42-20 and never had a chance. Mike Gundy did in fact let his team look bad two weeks in a row. Just an awful pick from me.

South Alabama (+20.5) at LSU: I took this solely because the SEC Insider had the other side and I wanted to fade this person. LSU won 42-10. I was being too much of a hater and I cannot do that anymore. In my Eugenio Suarez voice: “Good vize only boys!”

Where Griff was RIGHT:

Indiana (-7) vs Maryland: Hoosiers won 42-28. I was never worried about this. It was the Toretto and it delivered. IU might be a football school. You’ll be shocked to see what the Toretto is this week.

Clemson (-22.5) vs Stanford: I tailed the SEC Insider on this pick last week, despite hating on everything else they liked, and it paid off. Clemson rolled 40-14. Outside of the opening loss to Georgia, they have looked like the Clemson of old. Pretty sure they are plus money to make the CFP as well.

Ohio State (-23.5) vs Michigan State: Fuck Jonathan Smith. I gave you all the numbers that showed why tOSU was going to cover this number and they did, 38-7. They did not hit the over though (over 47.5). I got more numbers for the Buckeyes this week.

Alright. Happy Saturday. Let’s get to the picks.

CFB (7-6-1 last week / 40-26-1 in 2024 / 179-161-3 since 2022):

Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (4-1 in 2024, 13-7-1 overall): Indiana (TT o27.5) at Northwestern: Taking this specific pick from my friend’s at Bite Sized Bison. I don’t hate the spread either (IU -13.5), but I feel better that Indiana can score four touchdowns. They’ve hit that number each game this season.

Friday: Syracuse +6.5 at UNLV (Covered)

Friday: Michigan State at Oregon -23 (Fuck you, Jonathan Smith)

Army -13 at Tulsa: A lot goes into this pick, but two things are key: former IU coach Kevin Wilson leads Tulsa, so I’m fading them because right now, IU is ridding itself of the past and forging into the future. I’m doing the same. Also, Tulsa are not very good (2-3 overall and ATS). Army are 4-0, have covered all four games and may have the best offense in football. They have a +103 point differential. I love this.

Louisville -6.5 vs SMU: Dipping my toes back into the well until they become too crinkly. UofL gave us a miracle push last week with a late score to lose by seven. Really, Louisville has had three straight games where they needed something miraculous to happen in the fourth quarter to either cover or push. But it keeps happening. As for SMU, they killed Florida State last week (who gives a shit), crushed TCU 66-42 a couple weeks ago (TCU just lost to a now 2-3 Houston team last night) but did lose by three to a good BYU team before that. I’ve been on Louisville all year. I’ll keep falling into that well like a young Bruce Wayne (Batman Begins).

Boston College +1.5 at Virginia: This is strictly because Thomas Castellanos is back for BC and I can get them at plus money. I don’t know shit about Virginia football. Looks like they lost by 14 to Maryland, who Indiana beat pretty easily last week. If there is any pick to fade this week, it’s this one.

Iowa at Ohio State -18: I want to believe that tOSU is the best team in the country. There is no “demure” with this team. Always feels like they should be the top dawg even though Ryan Day was born on third base. So I’m gonna keep betting them like it. Since Day took over in 2019, OSU are 13-5-1 ATS at home in B1G games, favored in each one. In such games with lines between 10 and 20 points, they are 6-2 ATS. They’ve covered four (4) straight games, last on 10/7/23 vs Maryland (-17, W 37-17). I just want to believe.

Ole Miss -8.5 at South Carolina: Tailing the SEC Insider.

Alabama -22.5 at Vanderbilt: Tailing the SEC Insider.

Utah State at Boise State -27: I really just wanna bet on a Boise State game and this feels like the right time to do so. Ashton Jeanty is playing like a prime Cody Paul and Utah State gives up too many points (36 ppg). Boise averages 48 ppg. Set it and forget it.

Clemson -14.5 at Florida State: I asked a source about Florida State possibly playing better with out DJ You-Ain’t-Got-No-Alibi. Their response: “You watch that Glenn kid play the Orange bowl last year? He stinks too.”

Tennessee -13.5 AND 1H -7.5 at Arkansas: The spread is courtesy of the SEC Insider’s MWP. In six years as a head coach at UCF and Tennessee, Josh Heupel’s teams are 44-17-2 ATS in the first half – the most profitable ATS of 305 head coaches. That includes a record of 23-7-1 1H ATS away from home. Tennessee covered the 1H spread in week one vs Chattanooga (-24.5, leading 45-0), week two vs NC State (-4.5, leading 20-3), week 3 vs Kent State (-31.5, leading 65-0) and week 4 vs Oklahoma (-3.5, leading 19-3). Just follow the numbers.

Miami (FL) at California +10: Mainstream Bias pick of the week (2-2 in 2024)

Texas Tech +6.5 at Arizona: Texas Tech is playing much better recently with three straight wins, but this is more about Arizona. The Wildcats have been over-hyped all season, mainly because their QB and T-MAC (at WR) have been playing together since peewee. They were a trendy pick to upset Kansas State a couple weeks ago and got blown out and they beat Utah last week without Cam Rising. It’s easy to look at this game and think Arizona -6.5 is an easy play, but I just think Texas Tech is coming into form and will keep it close.

SEC Insider picks of the weekend (3-2 last week / 7-12 in 2024, 40-37-2 overall):

*the following is verbatim*

Let’s be honest – Nobody wants to hear my commentary after the poor start to the season. They just want results. Winning week last week (3-2), I feel the tide turning.

Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (2-3 in 2024, 13-7 overall): Tennessee -13.5 at Arkansas

Rutgers at Nebraska (over 40.5)

Louisville -6.5 vs SMU

Clemson -14.5 at Florida State

Bama -22.5 at Vanderbilt

Ole Miss -8.5 at South Carolina

Prem League Advisor pick of the weekend (3-1 in 2024, 5-1 overall):

*the following is verbatim*

Nothing else needs to be said. God bless.

Arsenal ML + West Ham ML +118

Fellas, lady fellas, we’re 33-20 on the season after going 9-3 last week.

I may have to introduce a paywall with how well this season has gone for us.

I’m joking. I’d never. I don’t even know how to set that up.

Last week was fantastic…for some of us. The Prem League Adviser continues to wow us all with a perfect 5-0 record overall, 3-0 in 2024. Leicester came back late and saved the parlay last Saturday and we got another parlay to kick off this Saturday.

We do need to have another talk about the SEC Insider. After a 1-4 week, this (anonymous) person is just 4-11 in 2024 and on the brink of falling under .500 overall. The Insider is already 0-1 this week after taking The U to cover -17.5 last night. Just another reason why I like posting this blog Saturday morning instead of Thursday or Friday. I’m always thinking about the best interests of my readers. Maybe the SEC Insider should stick to picking SEC games? Until we see positive results from him/her/who knows, I’d take their picks with a grain of salt.

I’m 1-1 this week. Last night I took Miami (FL) 1H TT over 19.5, which lost, but I live bet The U to win after Virginia Tech decided to run a fake field goal instead of making it a 13 point game. That was the most idiotic thing I’ve seen since Mario Cristobal ran a play instead of kneeing it last season and Miami went on to lose. I’d like to think that Cristobal was thinking the same thing when he saw VT do that and he knew his team was gonna win last night. And I think it’s pretty clear that the hail mary was incomplete. The guy(s) didn’t complete the process of the catch. Nobody on VT ever has full control of the ball. The call to reverse it to incomplete looks bad because the refs called it a touchdown on the field initially.

Let’s go back to last week.

Where Griff was WRONG:

Mississippi State (+6.5) never had a chance. I faded the Insider on everything but they got the other side of this one right. Florida won 45-28 and Miss St. might be the worst team in the SEC.

I wrote that I hated OSU -40 after I did the research, and I was right about that, but I still made the pick for them to cover. I even made the case to take the over 52.5 instead and I still didn’t do that. OSU beat Marshall 49-14. The Buckeyes never cover those huge spreads and they don’t give a shit about non-conference opponents. I will probably be taking them this week against Michigan State.

Notre Dame could’ve gone for the cover at the end of their 28-3 win over Miami (OH) but they didn’t. 27.5 points was too much. Their offense is not good. They’re playing Louisville this week, whom I’ve been riding all year, and I will continue to do so.

Where Griff was RIGHT:

Indiana University is a football school. The Hoosiers are 4-0 and beating the shit out of everything in their way right now. They covered 28 points vs Charlotte in a 52-14 win and now they open B1G play at home. The train keeps on rolling.

Taking Utah to beat Oklahoma State made me nervous because it’s the first time I’ve faded the Insider’s mouth watering pick, but it was the correct thing to do. OK St. made a late comeback that fell short in a game that Utah controlled throughout, even without Cam Rising. I will most likely continue my trend of fading the Insider, for the most part, until further notice.

Following two historical trends has been working pre-tay good. Tennessee covered the first half spread for the fourth time this season when they led Oklahoma 19-3 at half last week. Service academy teams keep covering their first half spread when they are underdogs. Navy (+6 1H) was up 28-17 over Memphis after the first 30 minutes. I’m gonna dip my toes back into those wells again.

Alright. Happy Saturday. Let’s get to the picks.

CFB (9-3 last week / 33-20 in 2024 / 172-155-2 since 2022):

Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (3-1 in 2024, 12-7-1 overall): Indiana -7 vs Maryland: Two weeks in a row I’m tailing the Hoosiers to make a big splash. Last week I wrote, “I don’t think Coach Cig is worried about Maryland” before what was a potential trap game vs Charlotte. I was right. And it still rings true today. Maryland’s offense is one-dimensional with receiver Tai Felton taking in 54 targets already. The Terps can throw the ball, but so can Indiana. Like Coach Cig, I’m not worried about Maryland.

Oklahoma State +5.5 at Kansas State: I think the public is all over Kansas State so I’m fading gen pop. OK St looked awful against Utah last week and I don’t see Mike Gundy letting his team play that bad two weeks in a row. Kansas State may win the game, but I think the Pokes will look like the better team.

Arkansas +5.5 at Texas A&M (*late add): Arkansas’ offense looks like one of the best in the country. Taylen Green is awesome. This is just a pick-it-and-rip-it pick.

Louisville +7 at Notre Dame: I’ve been riding UofL all season and I will continue to do so. Notre Dame does not have a great offense. Louisville does. The total is 45.5. Notre Dame is not blowing out the Cardinals. This game will be close. If I did not go with IU as the Toretto this week, this game would be my pick.

North Carolina +1.5 at Duke: Mainstream Bias pick of the week (1-2 in 2024)

Clemson -22.5 vs Stanford: I am following the SEC Insider here. They make some convincing points.

Ohio State -23.5 at Michigan State AND over 47.5: Since Ryan Day took over in 2019, OSU is 4-1 ATS as 20 to 29.5 point favorites on the road. All five instances are B1G games. They did not cover their most recent game, 26.5 points at Maryland, in 2022. The over is also 5-0 in those games with the lowest point total being 49.5 points at Northwestern in 2019.

Penn State -18 vs Illinois: There is mainstream bias involved with this pick, but it’s also like Oregon-Oregon State a couple weeks ago. Illinois has looked too good to be 18 point dawgs, so I’m just taking Penn State. It’s also a 7:30 EST kickoff so I like the Nittany Lions at home in the night game.

South Alabama +20.5 at LSU (*late add)

Florida State (TT u20) at SMU (*late add)

*I will probably add to the card.

SEC Insider picks of the weekend (1-4 last week / 4-11 in 2024, 37-36-2 overall):

*the following is verbatim*

Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (1-3 in 2024, 12-7 overall): LSU -20.5 vs South Alabama: Beautiful weather in Baton Rouge. LSU has better football players. Better coaches. They should beat a mid major by 3 scores, right?

Miami U -17 vs Virginia Tech (*Editor’s note: you’re welcome)
Imo The U is approaching “take them at whatever the line is” territory. Insiders get this one on Friday to get the party started.

Ok St v Kansas St U 57.5
I don’t think this game gets to the 50s. Ollie Gordon and Avery Johnson could be the biggest 2 frauds in the country. But SEC Insider, Avery Johnson is only 19! Cut him some slack! – Look how much Jayson Tatum has accomplished as a 19 year old. Yep teams who will look to run the ball. Think Gundy will have this team prepared after a loss last week.

Clemson -22 vs Stanford
Name your price situation. Think everyone overreacted to Clemsons week 1 loss. Clemsons offense rolling. Stanford has to fly back across the country after being in NY last week. Total let down spot after that upset over Cuse. Clemson is more physical and Stanford will not have ever seen a night game environment like this.

Cincinnati +3.5 at Texas Tech
My trusted insider can’t be wrong AGAIN can he? This UC team should be undefeated and feels a bit slept on. Hard fought W for Texas Tech last week, think they throw up a stinker.

Prem League Advisor pick of the weekend (3-0 in 2024, 5-0 overall):

Nottingham Forest Double Chance + Brentford Double Chance / Parlay -121

*the following is verbatim*

The people may say, “-121” (sic) cmon prem advisor anyone can hit those, to that I respond, “A win is a win.”

I’m sticking with the Saturday morning 10 AM EST matches as they have been good to us. Forest is on fire this year, playing some great ball. Brentford at home, needing a result against a struggling West Ham squad. I see both of these teams picking up at least a point Saturday.

Fellas, lady fellas, we’re doing pretty good. Pre-tay, pre-tay, pretty good.

We’re 24-16 to start this college football season (full disclosure: I took San Jose St. +12.5 last night. I may need to start releasing this prior to Friday night) and went 8-6 last week. I added a few live bets last week (Bama -13.5, LSU +5.5 and Georgia -6.5), going 2-1 there, but we would’ve been over .500 regardless. That’s the name of the game, right? To win over 50% of the bets? Well, we’re at a 60% success rate so far with one losing week (6-7 week 2).

The SEC Insider, though, is off to a rough start in 2024. Just 3-7 overall, 0-3 last week and already 0-1 this week with a parlay that couldn’t even make it to Saturday. Maybe I shouldn’t be posting this blog until Saturday morning.

And a special shoutout the Prem League Advisor. Guy (or gal) is 4-0 overall and 2-0 on picks this year. I always take the Saturday morning Prem League bet and you should as well.

Let’s recap last week, Colin Cowherd-style, beginning with the worst losses, because of INTEGRITY.

Where Griff was WRONG:

I took the wrong side in the Toretto. North Texas (miserably) failed to cover +10 at Texas Tech, losing 66-21, even though I wrote that the over made sense. I had the right idea, but just took the wrong side, and for that, I’m sorry. It’s the first loss on the Toretto this year. I promise I will do better.

As mentioned, trailing the (anonymous) SEC Insider has not been great in 2024. Shoutout to Kentucky for having an electric atmosphere at Kroger Field in what was one of the most memorable games I’ve ever been to (I saw someone get punched in left eye and the left temple, kinda sick). But Georgia just couldn’t do anything on offense most of the game and only won 13-12, as a 22-point favorite, thanks to Mark Stoops being a worse game manager than Nathaniel Hackett. Take a fucking chance, Mark! You think field goals are gonna win you a game against the (former) #1 team in the country? You’re in plus territory with under two minutes then take a penalty and end up punting? Maybe go for it on at least one fourth down. He was probably dreaming of College Station that entire night and now he’s never gonna get another opportunity like that. Mark Stoops’ career will die in Lexington.

Colorado State never had a chance. I didn’t watch a second of this game because it started at the same time as UK-UGA and I’m glad I didn’t. Colorado won 28-9 and Shedeur gave Rams QB Brayden Fowler-Nicolsi all the smoke. Just a bad miscalculation from me.

Side note: I still don’t think Shedeur should be a first round pick next year but some dumb GM (in Cleveland, probably) will throw all their eggs in the Sanders basket and they will be rewarded with whatever is depressing to find in an egg on an Easter egg hunt. Perhaps a Werther’s Original. I imagine a Werther’s Original would be upsetting for a child born after 2010 to find in an Easter egg. I would love a Werther’s Original right now.

Where Griff was RIGHT:

Oregon covered 16.5 in their 49-14 win over Oregon State. I knew that line was just weird as hell and I’m glad I stuck to my gut on it.

Georgia State beat Vandy straight up, 36-32, despite being 10.5 point dawgs. I shoulda sprinkled moneyline but I’ll take the ATS win.

The Hoosiers absolutely steamrolled UCLA, 42-13, in a primetime victory in the Rose Bowl. Coach Cig is turning around this program and I’m actually enjoying following IU football for the first time since Nate Sudfeld was the quarterback.

Happy Saturday. Let’s get to the picks.

CFB (8-6 last week / 24-16 in 2024 / 163-151-2 since 2022):

Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (2-1 in 2024, 11-7-1 overall): Indiana -28 vs Charlotte: IU starts Big Ten play next week at home vs Maryland, so this could be seen as a trap game. I don’t think Coach Cig is worried about Maryland. Right after he got hired, he went to Assembly Hall and called out Ohio State, Michigan and Purdue. He said. “I don’t take a backseat to anybody and don’t plan on starting now.” Does that sound like a guy who is worried about Maryland? IU has outscored their three inferior opponents 150-23 this season. I think Cig wants to inflict pain upon Charlotte.

Mississippi State +6.5 vs Florida AND over 58: I’m fading the SEC Insider here. In what world should Florida be favored by nearly a TD on the road in the SEC? I don’t care that Miss St got blown out at home by Toledo last week. Billy Napier should NEVER be a favorite again. Florida is 1-7 ATS in their last eight. Since 2021, they’re 5-9 ATS on the road and the over is 10-4 in those games.

Ohio State -40 vs Marshall: Hand up, I hate this pick, but I made it before I did some research. OSU is 4-5-1 ATS as a favorite of 39 or more since 2017 and just 1-3-1 since 2022. I just felt that OSU should easily cover this off a bye and with the expectations they have. However, the overs in such games are 7-3 in that same time-span. O/U as of this writing is 52.5.

Navy (1H +6) vs Memphis: “In the past decade, Army, Navy and Air Force are 91-59 ATS as underdogs in the first half spread” when facing non-service academy teams. We hit this with Air Force vs Baylor last week so I’m riding again. Also, I’m not sure how good Memphis really is. A win against Florida State is meaningless now.

Notre Dame -27.5 vs Miami (OH): Since 2017, ND is 7-2 ATS in September when playing with at least one loss. Since the 2017 season, after a win by 20+ points, they are 23-14-1 ATS.

Louisville -10 vs Georgia Tech: As I wrote a couple weeks ago, I think Louisville is a top-15 team (right now they are #19) and they will continue to show it. Off a bye and covering 29 and 39.5 point spreads so far is a great sign for this team. GT, meanwhile, has a win vs a shitty FSU team in Ireland, wins vs Georgia State and Vermont, and a loss at Syracuse, who lost to Stanford in the Dome last night. I don’t know how good GT is, I just think UofL is a whole lot better. And shoutout to Roman Reigns and Cody Rhodes for that Smackdown promo at GT last night. Very cool from the WWE.

Utah -1 at Oklahoma State: This is a big play for me because I’m fading the SEC Insider’s MWP. Just can’t trust this individual right now. Their head is not in the right space. Perhaps the upcoming election is taking a toll on this person. Reports are that Cam Rising is playing. Since 2020, in ranked vs ranked matchups, favorites are 124-93-5 ATS. Note: Nebraska did lose last night as a favorite vs Illinois in such matchup.

Miami (FL) -16.5 at South Florida: Yeah, USF played a good game in Tuscaloosa before getting torched in the final minutes of that game. Cam Ward will be in New York for the Heisman ceremony. Over the last 20 years, Miami (FL) is 15-4 ATS when playing another Florida team on the road or at a neutral site.

Tennessee (1H -3.5) at Oklahoma: In six years as a head coach at UCF and Tennessee, Josh Heupel’s teams are “43-17-2 ATS in the first half – the most profitable ATS of 305 head coaches. That includes a record of 22-7-1 1H ATS away from home.” Tennessee covered the 1H spread in week one vs Chattanooga (-24.5, leading 45-0), week two vs NC State (-4.5, leading 20-3) and week 3 vs Kent State (-31.5, leading 65-0). Just follow the numbers.

Oregon State -5 vs Purdue: Since 2021, Oregon State are 16-4 ATS in home games when they are favored by less than a touchdown. Since 2021, the Beavers are 5-0 SU/ATS at home off a straight-up loss. This line has moved to 3.5.

SEC Insider picks of the weekend (0-3 last week / 3-7 in 2024, 36-32-2 overall):

*Editors note: last week, this Insider (could be anyone) texted me “Oklahoma v Tulsa 1st half U 23.5” even though Oklahoma played Tulane and Oklahoma State played Tulsa. Hand up, I should’ve caught that. But we should all take caution with this person’s picks until we see some more wins.

*the following is verbatim*

Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (1-2 in 2024, 12-6 overall): Oklahoma State -2.5 vs Utah (*Editor’s note: I can confirm that OK St is hosting Utah today) – Gundy and the Pokes are 17-6 in games where the spread is -3/+3 in the last 10 years. Utah 2-7 in last 9 road games against ranked teams. This Cam Rising stuff is getting tired. Is he hurt or not? Just weird. Love Gundy and this team and think they’re poised for a run.

Ohio State -39.5 vs Marshall – If tOSU is who we think they are they should win by 50. Look for the offense and the silver bullets to really be clicking with conference play starting next week

ECU +6.5 vs Liberty – I think Liberty is fraudulent. A trusted CFB insider loves this play. My colleague can’t be wrong two weeks in a row can they? (*Editor’s note: the Insider is a tad skeptical of this play after learning that potential 1st round pick from ECU, CB Shavon Revel Jr., tore his ACL in practice this week, texting me, “May need an edit”)

Florida -6 vs Mississippi State – as bad as Florida is, Mississippi State could be 10x worse. Full rebuild in Starkville. What the hell happened against Toledo last week? Word is MSU (sic) didnt have a player good enough to start for Toledo. That’s sad.

Bonus parlay (!!!): Ok State -2.5/Vandy +20/Tenn -7/ECU +6/Ark +3/Tulane -3/Cuse -9 – LOSS (Cuse lost by two at home to Stanford last night)

We’re all due for a 7 legger to hit eh? (*Editor’s note: we’re not)

Prem League Advisor pick of the weekend (2-0 in 2024, 4-0 overall):

Tottenham ML + Leicester City Double Chance / Parlay +118

Tottenham has had a really tough schedule to start losing to both Arsenal and Newcastle. At Home Saturday I expect a hungry team to come out with the win. Leicester has Everton at Home. I think Everton get relegated this year. I would think at worst this is a draw but think Leicester is the better side.