Category: Uncategorized

Uncategorized

College Football Conference Championship Picks, 2024

griffinweinberg20

The ship is sinking but there is still a chance to make it out alive.

I was 8-9 last week with a couple of live bets on Georgia (W) and Texas A&M (L). The SEC Insider couldn’t hit water if he/she/they fell out of a boat. And the Prem League Advisor may as well be little Jack falling towards the bottom of the ocean.

But Rose has enough room on that piece of wood, and we can still survive, Mythbuster’s be damned. The three of us LOSERS. will float in the water for a little while, lose some weight, then hop on that shit and make our way to land. We are coming out of this on top. Conference championship week is for winners. And we will be winners. Forget everything that’s happened over the last month-plus. Tonight (Friday) is when we get back on track.

I am betting on all the conference title games. Can’t wait. As usual, here are the stats from Evan Abrams at the Action Network I like to use.

Let’s get to the picks.

Last week: 8-9 / In 2024: 99-99-2 / Since 2022: 238-234-4

Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (Last week: 0-1 / 2024 record: 7-7 / Overall: 16-13-1): ACC: SMU vs Clemson +3 – This is such a great spot for Clemson because 1) they have no business being in this game, 2) the end of the season has been chaotic so Clemson will probably end up stealing a spot in the playoff and 3) Clemson has lost three consecutive games ATS entering the title game and, over the last decade, teams entering a conference championship on a 3+ game ATS losing streak are 7-0 SU/ATS in the title game. I’m definitely sprinkling money line as well. Clemson winning and SMU getting left out while Bama gets an at-large just makes too much sense.

Conference USA: Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State -4 – I’ve not watched one snap from either of these teams this year, so I’m relying on the stats. They played last week and WKU won on a walk-off field goal. Jax State was a half point favorite. This is the fifth time a conference championship will be played when the opponents played each other the previous week. The team that won the previous game went 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS in the the title game. JSU it is.

Mountain West: UNLV vs Boise State -3.5 – Boise State has already beaten UNLV this season, 29-24, at the end of October. I don’t care about betting stats for this game, I’m just betting on Boise to not screw this up and to give us Ashton Jeanty against a P4 team on a national stage. It would be very upsetting to not see Jeanty in the playoff. I appreciate UNLV getting to this point with all the Sluka drama they went through earlier in the year but Jeanty is the storyline. He had 128 yards on 33 carries in the previous game, his lowest total this season. He’s going well over that tonight (Friday). A stat, though: UNLV has lost three straight ATS vs Boise State.

AAC: Tulane at Army +5 and 1H +2.5 – Tulane blew it on Thanksgiving and I think they blow it again tonight (Friday). All they had to do was beat Memphis, at home, as 12.5 point favorites and then they would be in line to get into the playoff. Fifteen teams have entered their conference title game of a SU loss as a double-digit favorite; they are 5-10 SU/ATS in their title games. Army has lost two straight games ATS. Teams going into the conference title game on a 2+ game ATS losing streak are 24-15 ATS in the championship game since 2010. The first half bet is something I did a decent amount earlier this year. Since 2014, when service academy teams are underdogs vs non-service teams, they are 96-66 ATS in the first half. Army is at home, too. They could easily win this game.

Big 12: Arizona State vs Iowa State +1.5 – I’m going against my gut on this one. Arizona State is the obvious choice because of how well they are playing but I think Iowa State has at least one more late game-winning drive in them. ASU has the best player on the field in Cam Skattebo but I love ISU quarterback Rocco Becht. He’s gonna be a top ten pick in a couple of years. And Matt Campbell is great as an underdog, going 36-23-3 ATS at Iowa State and Toledo. If they can find a way to slow down Skattebo, Iowa State will come away with this one.

SEC: Texas vs Georgia – The Lisan Al-Gaib will be making his pick on College Gameday Saturday morning. Whatever the Maud’Dib says, goes. As written.

MAC: Ohio vs Miami (OH) ml -125 – Love and Honor. An aesthetically pleasing color matchup in Detroit. This should be a fun game. I’m going with Miami because of how good Ohio is playing. The Bobcats are on a five game SU/ATS win streak. Since 2017, teams playing in their Conference Championship game on a 5+ game SU and ATS win streak are 2-5 SU and 0-6-1 ATS. Arizona State also qualify under this stat, just FYI.

Sun Belt: Marshall +5.5 at Louisiana Lafayette – Two more teams I know nothing about, Jon Snow. But Marshall is 5-0 ATS as dawgs this season. That’s all.

B1G: Penn State vs Oregon ml -116 – I’m not trusting James Franklin in a big game. Against top five opponents, Franklin is 1-16 SU and 5-12 ATS. I’m just not trusting him. As for the -116 I got, that was a profit boost on Draft Kings. Oregon is -164 on the money line but, with the boost, I felt fine taking them to just win instead of -3.5.

SEC Insider Picks of the Weekend

Last week: 1-2 / 2024 record: 19-33-1 / Overall: 52-58-3

*the following is verbatim*

If you’ve been fading me I reckon you’ve had a pretty big year at the window. Let’s see if we can finish on a high note.

Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (3-8-1 in 2024 / 14-12-1 overall): MAC Championship: Ohio vs Miami (OH) ml -125 – All hail Chuck Martin. Miami’s beat em once and I think they’ve got the goods to beat em again. Better coach, better academics. Give me the Red Hawks.

SEC Championship: Texas vs Georgia +2.5 – if you can get Georgia, with points, in the state of Georgia, you have to take it, right? Do we really think Texas is going to just tim waltz their way to a conference championship in year 1? Think again.

Big 12 Championship: Iowa State vs Arizona State -1.5 – Who’s hotter than Coach Dilly and the Sun Devils? What a story this has been. Iowa State is boring and wins ugly. Skattebo goes for 140 yards at 2TDs. Run the Damn Ball.

Prem League Advisor Pick of the Weekend

Last week: 0-1 / 2024 record: 6-5 / Since 2023: 8-5

*the following is verbatim*

Liverpool ML + Man City ML parlay +127

“Yeah let’s bet on a team I haven’t watched all year.” Im (sic) not sure what I was thinking last week that’s on me. Let’s get back to betting on quality football teams. Liverpool is the best team in the league right now and Mo Salah is the best player in the league. City has been awful lately losing 4 out of their last 5. I think with that said, really good ML value for a top team in the league who will get back on track.

Uncategorized

College Football Picks Week 14, 2024

griffinweinberg20

Last week was bad.

Very bad.

We went 6-16. Basically everything that could go wrong, did go wrong. The SEC Insider went 0-3 (not surprised). The Prem League Advisor, though, handed us a Saturday morning winner.

Hectic week so no long write-up, but I have 12 Saturday plays for you. The Insider has a Friday game on their board and we’ll start Saturday with another dub on the pitch.

I am 1-0 this week after hitting on Kent State/Buffalo over 48.5. I got more stats from the Action Network’s Evan Abrams. Let’s have ourselves a great holiday weekend.

Last week: 6-16 / In 2024: 92-90-2 / Since 2022: 231-225-4

Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (Last week: 0-1 / 2024 record: 7-6 / Overall: 16-12-1): Tennessee at Vanderbilt +10.5: Vanderbilt is now 7-0 ATS as dawgs of 7 or more points. What makes you think this game is going to be any different? Tennessee is magically back in the CFP race and I got a feeling they could squander their chance at a bid. Last weekend was crazy enough to make me believe that Vandy could win this outright. I may just sprinkle it.

Michigan at Ohio State OVER 42.5: Since 2013, the over is a perfect 10-0 in Michigan and Ohio State matchups, going over the total by 16.6 PPG. You telling me that Ryan Day, with a 10x better roster than Michigan, doesn’t want to run up the score on Michigan? OSU may hit the over themselves! Set it and forget it.

Kansas -1 at Baylor: Kansas is the hottest team in the country and they need to win this to get bowl-eligible. I’m going to ride the wave.

Louisville at Kentucky +4: In their last five meetings, Kentucky is 5-0 SU/ATS vs. Louisville — the longest such streak for either team in the last 100 years. In the last four meetings Kentucky has entered, where they had a worse record than Louisville, the Wildcats won SU and ATS dating back to 2016. Kentucky is also 4-0 ATS as a home dawg this season.

Notre Dame at USC +7.5: As a favorite of 7 points or more vs. USC, Notre Dame is 7-2 SU but just 2-7 ATS over the last 40 years. The Fighting Irish haven’t covered the spread on the road in USC since 2012, losing four in a row, going 1-3 SU in those games. USC has confidence after switching QBs two games ago. Notre Dame hasn’t played any good, non-service academy offenses since beating Louisville, 31-24, on September 28th. If USC can have even a little bit of offensive success, they can cover.

Maryland at Penn State -24: James Franklin has won ten games in his coaching career by 3 pts or less, his teams are 10-0 SU/ATS in their next game, covering by almost 18 PPG. Over the last two seasons, as a favorite of 20-30 points, Penn State is 4-1 ATS (they didn’t cover vs UCLA this year).

Arizona State at Arizona TT o20.5 and OVER 53.5: Arizona is not going bowling, which means this is probably the last game QB Noah Fifita and WR Tetairoa McMillan will ever play together. They are longtime friends. T-Mac is going top-five in the draft next year. I think Arizona will throw the ball around and these two will want to have a huge game to end their careers. Arizona State has allowed every opponent to score 21 points besides Kansas State (14) and Utah (19). When Arizona State is favored, the over is 5-1 this year.

NC State at North Carolina -3 and OVER 54.5: Kinda like the above statement, this is it for Mack Brown. He’s been fired, but he’s still coaching this game. His guys are gonna have some more motivation to send out their coach on a high note. When NC State is an underdog, the over is 4-0 this year. NC State also needs to win to get to a bowl game. UNC can get scored on. I should take NC State to cover this game, but I think UNC will win. Just need them to hit that number.

Miami at Syracuse +11 and OVER 67: Every week, what do I say? When Miami plays a competent offense, take the over. I don’t care if it hasn’t hit for two straight weeks. Syracuse has scored 31, 33, 31 and 38 points recently. I’m not jumping off the wagon at this point. And for the spread? What gives you the confidence that Miami will win this one with ease? Every one of their games feels like a nail-biter, so I’ll take Syracuse in the dome.

Oklahoma at LSU -5.5: I know this may be a stupid bet but I’m betting on Oklahoma having a letdown after taking down Bama last week. That game could not have gone any better for the Sooners, but Jalen Milroe was terrible and may have lost that game for Bama by himself. Here’s the stat: From Oklahoma’s side, they’ve come off a SU win as an underdog twice under Brent Venables and lost its next game ATS both times. Why not?

Texas at Texas A&M +5.5: This goes back to last week when Mike Elko basically told the world that A&M was focused on Texas, not Auburn. So it was not surprising to see the Aggies lose to Auburn. I’m betting on Elko telling us the truth and Texas not being able to perform against quality opponents.

New Mexico -3 at Hawaii: Since 1990, teams with exactly five wins (who are coming off of a win), who face a team in the regular season, in Week 14 or later, who has four wins or less, are 37-12-1 SU and 29-20-1 ATS. New Mexico is 5-6 while Hawaii is 4-7. New Mexico just upset Washington State as 10.5 point dawgs (they won 38-35). Hawaii have lost two straight. 11pm EST kickoff. I just wanna wake up with a green check mark next to this game.

SEC Insider Picks of the Weekend

Last week: 0-3 / 2024 record: 18-31-1 / Overall: 51-56-3

*the following is verbatim*

Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (3-7-1 in 2024 / 14-11-1 overall): Michigan at Ohio State -20: This is the biggest day of Ryan Day’s life. He has to win this game. He has to avenge the last 3. He’s the world’s smallest man so I can see him puffing his chest and running this up, scoring late, etc. I would argue this may be his best team and they very well can win it all.

Georgia Tech at Georgia -19.5: I think the Georgia O has turned a corner the last 2 weeks. Big time atmosphere. You can’t “look ahead” to the SEC Championship when you don’t know who you will play.

Miami (FL) at Syracuse +11
I’ve got news for everyone, Miami isn’t that good. Cuse can score with them. This moment is very big for The U. I’m fading

Prem League Advisor Pick of the Weekend

Last week: 1-0 / 2024 record: 6-4 / Since 2023: 8-4

Ipswich Town Double Chance +105

*the following is verbatim*

This is a team I’ve been waiting to bet on. Finally get a line that is worth it. Recent promote this year, I watched them in the EFL last year a little but hand up haven’t gotten to watch much of them this year. Excited to support the little guy on Saturday

Uncategorized

College Football Picks Week 13, 2024

griffinweinberg20

I have some terrible news…

…I absolutely LOVE the board. I have 22 Saturday bets for you. It could be a disastrous day. But it also could not.

There are some positives to look forward to. I’m gonna have boots on the ground for Indiana at Ohio State. I feel better about my picks after a solid week last week (6-5 in the blog but I added Clemson -12.5 at Pitt late and they won 24-20, so 6-6 for myself). We’re still hitting at a 53% clip for the season.

The Prem League Advisor got a much needed bye week after a 2-4 stretch. They’ve had some time to sip their tea and eat their crumpets so I’m fully expecting this individual to get right and deliver us a winner to start our Saturday.

However, for our friend the SEC Insider, I just don’t know what more they can do. A 1-2 record last week. Another loss to the Mouthwatering Pick. In all fairness though, he/she/whom locked in that pick at Notre Dame -23.5 vs Virginia earlier in the week but the line closed at 20.5 (depending on where you look) and ND won 35-14. So there is some grace to be given to the Insider. But a loss is a loss is a loss. They are now 18-28-1 on the season. Continue to follow the Insider’s picks at your own peril.

Where Griff was WRONG:

LSU -4 at Florida: “LSU are not a bad team, but they’ve had two BAD losses in a row…Florida still stinks.” LSU may suck. They’ve lost three in a row now and have no signs of life. Losing Bryce Underwood to Michigan doesn’t help either. The Toretto has failed two weeks in a row so I need to deliver a winner for you fine folks.

Nebraska at USC 1H u25.5: “Two big changes for these teams coming out of their bye weeks…My logic is that there will be an adjustment period for both teams so scoring may be scarce in the first half. There’s no evidence to back this theory up. Let’s see how it works.” It didn’t work. There were 28 points scored in the first half and it didn’t feel like this had any chance to hit. Oh well.

Tennessee at Georgia 1H u23.5: “This game is shaping up to be a dogfight.” It wasn’t. I actually missed the first 75% of this game but, from what I read, it was all Georgia after that first quarter. It was 17-17 at half. Tennessee didn’t score in the second half. The Volunteers were supposed to be a fun team to see in the Playoff this season but Nico still has some growing up to do. Georgia should host a playoff game. Tennessee are officially dead.

Where Griff was RIGHT:

Houston at Arizona -1: “I’m going against everything I’ve said about Arizona this week because they need to win this game to remain in the hunt (for a bowl game)…Houston have covered three of their last four games, all as underdogs. Arizona are 1-8 ATS this season with five straight losses…There’s no reason to bet on the Wildcats. So I’m going to.” Great decision. This game wasn’t even close. Arizona won 27-3. I just had a feeling and I’m glad I stuck to it. More of that, please.

Syracuse +9.5 at California: “Here’s a stat for ya: Teams to travel from EST in their previous game to a road game in PST are 9-6-1 ATS this season but just 2-5 ATS in the B1G and 7-1-1 ATS in all other conferences.” Never a doubt. Cuse won 33-25. I did use this formula to justify betting on Louisville -20.5 at Stanford but that didn’t work. However, I also took OVER 58 in the UofL game and Stanford won, 38-35. Betting against Louisville’s defense has become a profitable strategy.

Kansas +3 at BYU: “The Mainstream Bias Pick of the Week (5-3 in 2024).” Make it 6-3 in 2024. Kansas won 17-13. Sometimes, you just gotta follow the bias. The bias has its sights set on another game this week.

A lot of my picks last week were stat-driven. Again, I use stats from the Action Network’s Evan Abrams. Great piece of work he does every week. I used a healthy mix of stats and logic (or, perhaps, illogic) to make my picks this week. Twenty-two of them. Can’t wait. LFG.

Last week: 6-6 / In 2024: 85-74-2 / Since 2022: 224-209-4

Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (Last week: 0-1 / 2024 record: 7-5 / Overall: 16-11-1): Indiana +13 at Ohio State: What’d you expect? I went to IU. I’ve been betting on them all year. Why would I stop now? This will be a close game and people just can’t come to grips with it. OSU’s offensive line is beat up while IU is a top-two havoc-inducing team in the B1G. Kurtis Rourke is the top rated QB in the B1G and one of the best in the country. “But what about the Michigan game?” You know what Michigan has that IU doesn’t? Five-star and (many more) four-star recruits. There is so much more talent on the roster of TTUN, Indiana got beat up in the second half and they still found a way to grind out a win. That may be just how this game plays out. Indiana wins in Columbus by a score of 27-24.

Wake Forest at Miami (FL) OVER 64.5: My rule with Miami is if they play a competent offense, take the over. While this didn’t work against Georgia Tech two weeks ago, I blame that on Haynes King not being able to throw the ball at 100% (he only had six pass attempts but 20 rushes). Wake has scored 24, 36 and 27 points recently. I wouldn’t be shocked if they get to 30 here. I’m trusting the data. Miami are also 5-1 ATS as double-digit favorites this year.

Illinois at Rutgers +1: I just don’t like Illinois and Rutgers has momentum. The Scarlet Knights have won two straight, both as underdogs. Illinois just beat up on a very sad Michigan State team and have losses to Minnesota and Oregon before that. I like Rutgers to win a dirty game in Piscataway.

North Carolina at Boston College OVER 55.5: This line is too low. UNC have scored 31, 35, 41 and 34 points in their last four. BC have scored 28, 37 and 27 points and look just fine with that new QB. BC have given up 38, 31, 31 and 42 points over the last four. Unless I’m missing something, the over is the right play.

UMass +42 at Georgia and UNDER 55.5: Georgia never blows a team out under these circumstances. In their last 10 games as 40+ point favorites, Georgia are 0-9-1 ATS dating back to 2018. They have failed to cover the spread in 13 straight games in that scenario going back to 2015. The under is also 6-2 over their last eight games as 40+ point favorites.

Charleston Southern +33.5 at Florida State and UNDER 44.5: I don’t care who Florida State is going up against in 2024. They have no business being favored by 30-plus, let alone being ANY kind of favorite. The most points the Noles have scored this year was 21 and that was in Ireland. They cannot score. Why do you think it’s gonna change all of a sudden? What motivation do they have this week? Unless Mike Norvell says to his team, “This season has sucked. Take out all your anger on Charleston Southern,” I don’t see a world how they win a football game by 30+ this season.

Arizona +11.5 at TCU: Just like last week, when we took Arizona to handle Utah, they need to win this game to remain in the hunt (for a bowl game). TCU can be scored on and Arizona has momentum. This feels like a lot of points to give for two mediocre teams.

BYU at Arizona State -3: The Mainstream Bias Pick of the Week (6-3 in 2024). It’s unfortunate how BYU has ended up here two weeks in a row but the bias says what the bias wants to say. And the bias does not like the Cougars right now.

Northwestern at Michigan UNDER 36.5: I don’t see where all the points are gonna come from. Michigan has scored over 20 points once over the last five games (24 against Michigan State). Northwestern has 7, 14 and 3 points in three of their last four. They scored 26 against Purdue.

Kentucky at Texas -20.5: I didn’t like that stat about this being the farthest west Kentucky has ever played a football game. Also, Mark Stoops is just 14-20-3 as a double-digit underdog and Sark is 8-5 ATS as a favorite of 17 or more points.

Colorado -2.5 at Kansas: I’d love to take Kansas because they fall into my model of “If Team X needs to win this game to get to a bowl game, take Team X.” However, I think Colorado is on a different wave right now and they’ve increased their scoring over their last three games from 24 to 41 to 49. Kansas knows how to score too, but if this is a track meat, I’ll put my faith in Shadeur and Travis Hunter to win it. And, honestly, with that logic I may as well take the over too. OVER 59.5.

Wisconsin +2.5 at Nebraska: Matt Rhule is 0-8 straight up at Nebraska when they have exactly five wins. That’s funny. And I kinda like Luke Fickell firing the OC this week. He must be really fucking pissed at the guy to fire him with two games left in his second year. I like that shit. I think Wisconsin comes out with more fire than Nebraska and wins.

Pitt +8 at Louisville: I think I told myself in week four or five that I was done betting on Louisville football. I’ve bet on their game every week since. The main reason I’m taking them is because of this: “In the last 30 years, we’ve only seen 10 teams have a 70+ win pct and be on a 3-game SU losing streak. Those teams are 7-3 SU and ATS in their next game, covering the spread by 11 PPG.” Louisville can be scored on. Maybe this is the get-right game for Pitt.

Army vs Notre Dame -14.5 (at Yankee Stadium): I’m not buying it. Notre Dame took the soul out of Navy. I’d love to see Army get the job done but I’m not gonna fall for it. Just not. Stat: When the line is 14 or more in ranked vs. ranked matchups since 2010, the favorite is 65-43-2 ATS, covering by 3.6 PPG

Alabama -13.5 at Oklahoma: Alabama is just a flat out better team. Not gonna fall for it. Nothing shows me that Oklahoma can compete with Bama at this point in the season. Not gonna do it.

Iowa State -7 at Utah: NOT. GONNA. DO IT. Utah have lost six in a row. They lost the Holy War in a bad way then got blown out by Colorado. I think Iowa State got a nice reboot after doubling up Cincinnati last week, 34-17. Again, Utah falls into the, “If Team X needs to win this game to get to a bowl game, take Team X,” model, but Iowa State is the clear cut better team. At worst it ends up being a push. Not gonna fall for the bait.

Texas A&M at Auburn UNDER 46.5: I am gonna do it. Auburn has no business winning this game. The Aggies are better by every margin. But I don’t like Mike Elko slipping up in his press conference about this not being a look ahead game with Texas on the Horizon. Auburn are in the situational spot of, “If Team X needs to win this game to get to a bowl game, take Team X.” But I think Auburn mucks it up and IF they do manage to keep it close, it’ll be a low-scoring game. I love this bet.

Vanderbilt +7.5 at LSU: Vandy are 6-0 ATS as dawgs of 7-plus points. They’re off a bye week. LSU has zero life. I still think LSU wins but why do we trust them to beat Vanderbilt by more than a touchdown? And time could be running out to bet on Diego Pavia in a college football game so why I wanna take advantage of that.

Air Force +3.5 at Nevada: Late night game. Air Force won their last two games and have won three straight ATS. Nevada have lost four games in a row. It’ll be great to wake up and see a winner come in overnight.

SEC Insider Picks of the Weekend

Last week: 1-2 / 2024 record: 18-28-1 / Overall: 51-53-3

*the following is verbatim*

The playoffs have already begun for several teams as far as I’m concerned. Win (Cover) or go home.

Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (3-7-1 in 2024 / 14-11-1 overall): Alabama -13.5 at Oklahoma – Playoffs have started for Bama. Milroe and crew know what’s at stake these next few weeks. I think they win and win big. I think Bama is 1/6 teams who can win it all. Big boom potential. Oklahoma may not go to a bowl. They are a bad football team.

Kentucky at Texas -20.5 – Playoffs have started for Texas. They ain’t going to sleep walk through this one and look ahead to Texas A&M. Kentucky will have their attention. A loss hear puts Texas in no man’s land. A big win here helps them out if they stumble to Texas A&M next week. Kentucky is bad. I think they’re looking to next year at this point. Texas is also 1/6 who can win it all.

Ole Miss -12.5 at Florida – Playoffs have started for Ole Miss. I respect Lagway for playing through this injury. I don’t expect him to be as mobile as before. Ole Miss’ front will get after him. Ole Miss gets back Harris. All systems go for Dart and company. Lane Kiffin knows this is probably going to be one of his best shots at making a run at the title. You guessed it, Ole Miss is 1/6 who can win it all.

Prem League Advisor Pick of the Weekend

Last week: 0-0 / 2024 record: 5-4 / Since 2023: 7-4

Chelsea + Arsenal ML parlay -106

Let’s start the day off right at 7:30 EST. I tried to find Chelsea -1.5 on this match and FanDuel wasn’t offering it. Makes me think they know Chelsea will run away with this one. Arsenal has to get back on track and forest has to cool off. International break was much needed for the reds. I think Arsenal clears.

Uncategorized

College Football Picks Week 12, 2024

griffinweinberg20

PATHETIC.

pa·thet·ic

adjective

Definition: miserably inadequate; of very low standard.

Origin: late 16th century (in the sense ‘affecting the emotions’): via late Latin from Greek pathētikos ‘sensitive’, based on pathos ‘suffering’.

Something has to change.

I’ve provided LOSERS. for, I think, five of the last six weeks in this blog. A few mid-week and live bets have gotten me to .500 a couple of those weeks, but, for the most part, it’s been a tragedy for everyone who follows all of my Saturday morning picks. I went 6-6 last week, but take away a 2-0 start during MACtion and a live bet I threw on The U (they lost) and you get 4-5 on the blog. PATHETIC. (Note: we still are 79-68-2 on the season, though)

To make matters worse, the (gladly still anonymous) SEC Insider followed up a 2-1 week by going a perfect 0-3 last week. It was a full SEC card. The Mouthwatering Pick is now 3-6-1 this season. Last week’s MWP, LSU money line, was a clunker. From the blog last week: “Another “Welcome to the SEC” moment for Coach DeBoer.” Here’s what I gotta say: PATHETIC. Welcome to the new world, Mr./Mrs./Ms. Insider. Drop down from that pearly white mountain the SEC has occupied since the introduction of a four-team playoff and take a look around you. The field is wide open now. The SEC is no longer king. Four of the top five teams at the moment are from the B1G. This person seems to think they know everything about “the greatest conference in college sports”. They don’t know jack shit. So what do we have this week? Three picks, two of them not SEC-related. How will it go? Your guess is as good as mine.

And how about our mate across the pond, the Prem League Advisor. Remember when it was a sure-thing we’d start our Saturdays with some money in our pockets? Hah. After a great money line upset a couple of weeks ago, the Advisor gave us a LOSER. last week and is now 2-4 over their last six picks. PATHETIC. We should all be grateful that there is no Prem League action this week because of the international window being open, but this individual is on thin ice, and if things don’t change beginning next week, it’s gonna be a “death or exile” situation from The Dark Knight Rises for the Advisor. A quote from the Advisor about this bye week: “I think I needed that.” Agreed.

It makes no sense for me to evaluate my picks last week. Nobody really cares at this point. You just want free winners so I’m going to provide that for you this weekend. I have one Friday night selection. I’m back to using stats and I get them from Evan Abrams (IU grad) at the Action Network.

Let’s all blindly throw darts at a board and see how this one goes, shall we?

Last week: 6-6 / In 2024: 79-68-2 / Since 2022: 218-203-4

Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (Last week: 0-1 / 2024 record: 7-4 / Overall: 16-10-1): LSU -4 at Florida: LSU are not a bad team, but they’ve had two BAD losses in a row (38-23 at TA&M and 42-13 vs Bama). And I don’t care that DJ Lagway is coming back for this game. Florida still stinks. Stat: Brian Kelly has played 19 career games after getting blown out (20+ pts). He is 12-7 SU and 13-6 ATS in the game after being blown out, including 3-0 SU/ATS with LSU.

Houston at Arizona -1: I’m going against everything I’ve said about Arizona this week because they need to win this game to remain in the hunt (for a bowl game). They’re 3-6. Houston is a very trendy pick of late. They’ve covered three of their last four games, all as underdogs. Arizona are 1-8 ATS this season with five straight losses. Both teams are off a bye, though, if that matters. There’s no reason to bet on the Wildcats. So I’m going to.

Syracuse +9.5 at California: Here’s a stat for ya: Teams to travel from EST in their previous game to a road game in PST are 9-6-1 ATS this season but just 2-5 ATS in the B1G and 7-1-1 ATS in all other conferences. Syracuse played at Boston College last week. Cal also played on the east coast at Wake Forest last week but Cal is (wait for it) the home team this week. Cuse it is.

Penn State -28.5 at Purdue: Stat: Since 2022, Penn State are 9-1 ATS as a road favorite. Their lone ATS loss was at USC this season, a 33-30 win in OT as 3.5-point favorites. They covered 26.5 points at Northwestern last season. They’ve covered six straight games as double-digit road favorites. Why not.

Louisville -20.5 at Stanford and OVER 58: Same exact scenario as Syracuse at Cal. UofL was at Clemson two weeks ago. The Cardinals and Cardinal are both coming off a bye. I like the over because Stanford found their offense over the last two games. Not sure why cause I haven’t watched a single snap of theirs this season. But they went from scoring 7, 7, and 10 points in three games to scoring 24 and 28 over their last two. We know Louisville can score and they have a bad defense. What could go wrong?

Nebraska at USC 1H u25.5: Two big changes for these teams coming out of their bye weeks. USC are starting former UNLV QB Jayden Maiava over Miller Moss. Nebraska just hired Dana Holgerson last week to take over as offensive coordinator for the rest of the year. My logic is that there will be an adjustment period for both teams so scoring may be scarce in the first half. There’s no evidence to back this theory up. Let’s see how it works.

Mizzou +14.5 at South Carolina: An absolute sucker bet. Vegas is just begging me to take the bait and I’m doing it. South Carolina has looked really good recently winning three straight over Vandy, Texas A&M and Oklahoma. Mizzou beat that not-so-great Oklahoma team last week then Coach Drink sounded like he’d been drinking that drink. The Cocks could win this game by 30 but I don’t care. Gimme the bait.

Tennessee at Georgia 1H u23.5: This game is shaping up to be a dogfight. Nico may-or-may-not be playing but UT has a great defense regardless. Georgia is notorious for starting slow. Both teams have to win this game so I could see a lot of playing-it-safe. I’ll bet on that in the first half.

Cincinnati +9.5 at Iowa State: Stat: fade in-conference home favorites who have been bad ATS lately. This system is 14-7 ATS this season. Those fades this week would be Arizona and Iowa State. Remember how I picked Arizona to cover? I’m a walking (typing) contradiction. A tornado of madness. Ain’t no love in Oklahoma when I’m betting on college football. Iowa State has dropped two straight after starting undefeated. Let’s get weird.

Kansas +3 at BYU: The Mainstream Bias Pick of the Week (5-3 in 2024). Everybody loves Kansas and thinks BYJew’s magic is bound to run out. That’s how I determine the MBPOTW by the way. Not by public betting percentage or whatever. But if I see a lot of talk about a certain pick on twitter, in podcasts or whenever I attempt to do research and see the mainstream media talking about it, that’s how I choose it. I love the Cougs. They’ve been great to me. But I do love the bias.

SEC Insider Picks of the Weekend

Last week: 0-3 / 2024 record: 17-26-1 / Overall: 50-51-3

*the following is verbatim*

Simply put, it could be raining pussy and I’d get hit by a dick. Im (sic) just not seeing the field well. But, even the great ones go through slumps. We will #KeepPounding as my beloved Panthers say. Let’s go 3-0.

Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (3-6-1 in 2024 / 14-10-1 overall): Virginia at Notre Dame -23.5: How about some analytics for a change? ESPN S/P says Irish by 27. ESPN FPI says Irish by 27.8. I’m no math major but that leads me to believe the Irish cover here. The Irish are rolling and have everything in front of them. They are seem to be leaking at the right time. (*Editor’s note: that entire last sentence is a “sic”)

Kansas at BYU -3
Kansas has been a trendy pick this week. I’m not seeing it. BYU is playing for everything still. Provo at night is sneaky one of the hardest places to play that you will see.

Missouri +14 at South Carolina
I expect a gross football game. Gross football games tend to be close. The analytics have this one at an about a 1 score game. Drink has this team convinced they have a shot at a playoff berth. Two of the more unlikable coaches in the sport. I see some fireworks coming in the postgame handshake.

Prem League Advisor Pick of the Weekend

Last week: 0-1 / 2024 record: 5-4 / Since 2023: 7-4

Bye week.

Seth Rogen Step Brothers
Uncategorized

College Football Picks Week 11, 2024

griffinweinberg20

DISAPPOINTED.

dis·ap·point·ed

adjective

Definition 1: (of hopes or expectations) prevented from being realized.

Definition 2: (of a person) sad or displeased because someone or something has failed to fulfill one’s hopes or expectations.

Origin: late Middle English (in the sense ‘deprive of a position’); from Old French desappointer .

I’m DISAPPOINTED. in myself.

As of last Sunday night, my record over the last five weeks was 34-37-1. That may not look terrible to the naked eye, but that is unacceptable by this blog’s standards. Overall this season, we still stand on the right side of history with a record of 75-62-2. But that number is beginning to smell like onions and ketchup. I tried to use POSITIVITY. last week to turn the tide but it resulted in a 4-5 week (3-5 on the blog but I live bet Georgia -3.5 when DJ Lagway went down with a hammy injury. Georgia won 34-20).

We weren’t all LOSERS. last week, though. It was great to see the SEC Insider finish 2-1. One of his/hers/not-sure’s picks was South Carolina +3 vs Texas A&M and this person even predicted an outright win for the Gamecocks. They did win, 44-20. Some sound logic used by the Insider last week has me feeling good about their prospects this week. However, the Mouth Watering Pick of the Week is still in fade territory. Just 3-5-1 this year with a big miss on Clemson last week. I’m gonna stay POSITIVE. It’s a 3-0 week for the Insider.

And how about the Prem League Advisor? The blog pick was Newcastle Double Chance -130, but this individual saw a sign: “A close companion of mine just started a book in which the main character is in the Premier League, the team he plays for… Blackcastle. I have a personal play on Newcastle ML +280.” Blackcastle beat Arsenal, 1-0, and got us started on a great note last Saturday. POSITIVE. vibes across the pond and I can’t wait to start 1-0 on this glorious day once again.

Now let’s get to why I’m DISAPPOINTED. in myself.

Where Griff was WRONG:

Navy -11 at Rice: “Yes, Rice fired their head coach this week…I’m not worried about that…I think Navy can loosen up with the Notre Dame game out of the way and play like a champion today.” Rice won 24-10. A colossal failure on the Toretto. I could not have been more confident in this. I’m gonna blame this loss on the game being delayed by weather for like five hours.

Oregon at Michigan UNDER 45: “Oregon is giving up 14 points or less to teams not named Ohio State or Boise State. Would you put Michigan’s offense in the same class as OSU or BSU? Didn’t think so…No matter what, the Wolverines aren’t putting up points here.” Michigan won 38-17. I shouldn’t have gotten too fancy and just taken the spread instead. I almost did. I’m not happy with myself about this one.

Louisville at Clemson -10.5: “No one has bet on more UofL games this season than me. We know the Cards have a bad defense. Clemson off a bye…they’re beating their ACC counterparts by an average of 19 points in six games. I don’t see why that changes here.” Louisville won 33-21. Clemson never had a chance. UofL outscored them 23-0 in the middle quarters. This is the official dagger in Clemson’s chances of getting to the CFP.

Where Griff was RIGHT:

Duke at Miami (FL) OVER 54.5: “If Miami is playing a competent offense, the over will hit.” Miami won 53-31 and almost hit the over themselves. They’ve only gone under the total once this year and it was against Florida State, a non-competent offense. Miami are at Georgia Tech today and the total is at 63.5. As of this writing, Haynes King is questionable to play. In two games without him, GT have only scored 13 and 6 points. If he plays, I’m gonna take the over. If he doesn’t I’m gonna stay away.

Kansas State -13 at Houston: “This is a dumb, illogical pick that I have no business making. I couldn’t help myself…You can fade this one with confidence.” Houston won 24-19. When I think that I know I’m wrong, I’m usually right about it. I’m good for at least one of these a week now which should result in an easy bet for you to make.

Today is gonna be a great day. I am starting the day at 2-0 after betting on MACtion earlier this week (Central Michigan TT u16.5 and Ohio -20.5). We’re gonna be special today. Let’s get to the picks.

Last week: 4-5 / In 2024: 75-62-2 / Since 2022: 214-197-4

Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (7-3 in 2024, 16-9-1 overall): Michigan at Indiana -14: What else do you need to see? The Hoosiers are THEM. IU hasn’t been favored against Michigan since 1968. This isn’t a look-ahead spot for IU since they have the bye next week. Michigan might be looking to put out the Cig for what the coach said in his first public appearance as Indiana’s coach. I think Cig wants to prove that statement right.

West Virginia at Cincinnati -4.5: I don’t think West Virginia are all that good. They’re 4-4 with a win over an FCS team and wins against Arizona (3-6), Oklahoma State (3-6) and Kansas (2-6). I don’t think UC is that much better but they got a win over Arizona State (6-2) and a home game after a bye week (WVU are also off a bye). The Cats are 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS as a favorite this year. I’m gonna roll with them in a close one.

Iowa State at Kansas +3: Yeah I know I just disrespected Kansas a little but I was just drawn to this one. Jayhawks have looked improved recently by beating Houston 42-14, losing a close rivalry game at Kansas State 29-27, then detoxing with a bye week. Iowa State didn’t have their fourth quarter magic in their first loss of the season to Texas Tech. Still, I feel like this line should be like 7.5 or higher. That’s just weird to me. Kansas it is.

Georgia at Ole Miss +3 and OVER 54.5: I think Georgia has proven to be the best team in the SEC, but they still got their flaws. Carson Beck has looked so bad in so many spots this year. He’s thrown eight interceptions his last three games. But Georgia has still managed to score 30 points in every game this year besides one (13 at Kentucky). Ole Miss can be scored on. I’m betting on Beck throwing a few INTs that’ll give Ole Miss a few more scoring opportunities. And Lane Kiffin loves being a home dawg. He’s 3-0 ATS in that situation at Ole Miss with one win each of the last three years, not counting COVID. Final score: Georgia 29, Ole Miss 28. Georgia forces a safety at some point in the game.

Colorado at Texas Tech OVER 62.5: It’s a lot of points but this is a fun game to bet on. Texas Tech has given up 59, 41 and 35 in three of their last five games. Colorado also has a vulnerable defense but they can score 40 points any random night. Shadeur isn’t worried about second semester. Texas Tech had that emotional win at Iowa State last week but now they can ride that momentum into a home game on FOX. I think both teams show up for this one.

South Carolina at Vanderbilt +4.5: Why are we doubting this team? At home? They’re 6-0 ATS as an underdog. This actually makes no sense. I took this line Thursday morning and it’s now at 6.5. I love it even more. I’m not as impressed about South Carolina’s win over Texas A&M last week cause they had a week to scout Marcel Reese. I think that LSU-A&M game says more about LSU’s in-game adjustments than anything else. Unless Pavia is not playing, you take Vandy as a dawg at home.

UCF at Arizona State OVER 55.5: Dumb illogical bet I have no business making. I seem to lose every one of these bets. I’ll stop one of these days.

Alabama at LSU +3: Also doubles as the Mainstream Bias Pick of the Week (5-2 in 2024). It’s LSU as a dawg in a home night game. You really think I’m gonna pass up on that opportunity? I’ll probably sprinkle ML on this too. The only reason I feel nervous about this is because of what you’ll read below. But it’s gotta turn positive at some point, right?

SEC Insider Picks of the Weekend

Last week: 2-1 / In 2024: 17-23-1 / Overall: 50-48-3

*the following is verbatim*

Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (3-6-1 in 2024 / 14-10-1 overall): Alabama at LSU ML – Another “Welcome to the SEC” moment for Coach DeBoer. How much different would you feel about LSU if Marcel Reed doesn’t come in for A&M and spoil that game? I still love this Tigers team. Night game in Death Valley? Live Tiger on the field? Livvy Dunne and Paul Skenes? Someone play Neck.

Georgia -2.5 at Ole Miss
I think if you can get Georgia to win by a field goal against anyone, you have take it. Surely Beck snaps out of this funk eventually, right? I like Smart in a big game situation over Kiffin. Watch the lines of scrimmage on both sides here. Who do you like in a trench war?

South Carolina at Vanderbilt +6.5
I’m riding with the Dores and Pavia until the wheels fall off. You just simply cannot bet against Diego Pavia. Last week felt like SC’s Super Bowl. I don’t trust Beamer to string together a 3rd win on the road here.

Prem League Advisor Pick of the Weekend

Last week: 1-0 / In 2024: 5-3 / Since 2023: 7-3

*the following is verbatim*

Crystal Palace Double Chance + West Ham Double Chance -107

Boy the early games on Saturday are brutal. No signs this week, back to picking quality teams and expecting a result. Both these teams at home and they are the better side in both games. I expect a draw at worst from both. Let’s start the Saturday off right again.