What a week this has been.
After working close to 12 hours, going 11-4-1 myself on the picks, the SEC Insider coming back from the dead with a 2-1 day and the Prem League Advisor winning for the second straight week, I spent my Saturday night at the local Bdubs.
I spent 2.5 hours chopping it up with a guy named (I THINK) John. Early 50s, kinda looks like blonde Luke Combs with a shorter beard, says he’s one of the top guys at his construction company. Seven kids. Pro-Kirk, pro-choice, anti-vax. Great guy. I had anywhere from 1-5 tall Miller Lites.
I get home around 10 pm EST. Get a text from my brother that he has an extra ticket for the Bengals @ Vikings game Sunday (him and his buddies have been planning this trip for a couple months).
Fuck it.
I sleep for about 2.5 hours. Wake up, shower and shave. Hit the road around 3 am EST. It’s about 6.5 hours to drive to Minneapolis. I only stop twice.
Before my brother and his buddies meet me at this bar, I’m sitting next to this kid named (I can confirm) Austin. Mid-20s, from the city, went to school at North Dakota State. He pats me on the back (I’m wearing my #85 orange Tee Higgins jersey).
“You from Cincy?”
We chop it up for about 30 minutes over a couple draft beers. It’s 9:30 am CST. Most of the conversation revolved around CFB gambling. He hit a 5-leg parlay the day before. $100 to win $1,800. Great guy.
If you’re still reading this, I think you know how the Bengals game went. Lost 48-10. The WORST loss in franchise history. A literal all-time defensive performance from Vikings DB Isaiah Rodgers. Great stadium. Maybe the coolest stadium I’ve ever been in.
I left midway through the 3rd quarter when we went down 41-3.
Drove about 6.5 hours back to Marquette. I only stopped twice. Got back home at 9:55 pm EST.
Let’s skip to Wednesday. My story was about a 2 hour 15 minute drive away into the central timezone. I have to work on a laptop when I’m done at this county board meeting. The board voted to move the county’s 4-H coordinator from full-time to part-time. People were pissed. Kids were crying. The board had its reasons. The meeting began at 5 pm CST. This isn’t the point.
Since I’m on a laptop, I need WiFi. The only place in town that I saw would be open after 10 pm CST (with access to WiFi) was this bar. They were playing music of course, lots of TVs (‘Iron Man 2’ was on one of them, pretty sweet), Guardians-Tigers game on a few flatscreens.
This may have been the worst overall writing/editing experience I’ve had since I started this job. I won’t get into the issues I was having with the laptop, but it was all of the issues. It was loud in this place. I missed my deadline. The story ended up airing the next day.
I was so frustrated, depressed, just miserable while sitting in this bar (I was sitting at a table, not the actual bar).
Cursing to myself. “You dumb fuck.” “Stupid fucking idiot.” “Fuck this laptop, man.” “Goddamn clanker.”
I finished up my night at about 10:30 pm CT. A 2.5 hour drive back to work is waiting for me. The bar is basically empty besides two people sitting there and the bartender. They’re all friends. After I pack up, I walk up to the bar.
Me: “Hey, what’s that shot where I take it then you slap me in the face?”
Bartender: “A hurricane shot.”
Me: “Yeah I’ll take one of those please.”
She slapped me in the ear. It hurt.
I got back to work around 1:30 am EST. No stops.
I don’t feel like I’ve fully recovered from a lack of sleep this last week. I still have another 12 hour day staring me in the face on Saturday.
But before we get to this Saturday, let’s look back at last Saturday.
Where Griff was WRONG:
Florida +7.5 at Miami (FL): “This line should be A LOT bigger.” – I still think it should have been bigger. Second week in a row Florida +7.5 has ended up in this part of the blog. They are just as dead as Wisconsin and I am done betting on them.
UNLV at Miami (OH) +2.5: “The Rebels are crossing three timezones to play in Oxford, Ohio? For a noon kickoff? Whoever scheduled this game for UNLV needs to be fired. Love and Honor.” – Folks, we had this one and let it slip away. Miami (OH) was up 14 in the 4th quarter before losing by three. UNLV moves to 4-0. Miami (OH) moves to 0-3.
SMU +7 at TCU: “The Iron Skillet rivalry is coming to an end because TCU chose to end it…I know nothing about these teams besides TCU beating North Carolina in Week 1. This is a spite bet.” – Same story as Miami (OH). SMU had a 96% chance to cover with 10:30 left in the game, leading by three. TCU took the lead back a minute later and scored again a few minutes after that to cover. I prefer the air fryer to the skillet anyway.
Where Griff was RIGHT:
Arkansas at Memphis +7.5: “(Memphis) HC Ryan Silverfield is 5-2 ATS as a home dawg since 2020. Arkansas had a chance to take down Ole Miss last week, who played their backup QB, and couldn’t do it. Now they have to go on the road…and win by a touchdown? No thanks.” – Memphis won 32-31. Silverfield is now 6-2 ATS as a home dawg. The Toretto has now hit two weeks in a row after an 0-2 start.
Texas Tech at Utah UNDER 57.5: “This is the first real game for each team. Both are 3-0 but their opponents’ combined record is 1-11. Kickoff is at 10 a.m. local time…I think both offenses will need to adjust to facing better defenses. Could also be a good spot for a 1H under bet.” – The 1H under did hit as well. I got a little nervous cause only 13 points were scored through the first three quarters but there were 31 points in the fourth.
Maryland +10 at Wisconsin: “I just think Wisconsin is cooked. They’re already talking about this being a must win game.” – Maryland won 27-10. I thought Fickell was a perfect hire for Wisconsin, but I also thought Archie Miller was a perfect hire for Indiana basketball in 2017. Archie got four years. I’m not sure Fickell sees year four.
Let’s get to the picks.
Last week: 11-4-1 / In 2025: 26-20-2 / Since 2022: 280-264-6
Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (In 2025: 2-2 / Overall: 19-15-1): UCF +6 at Kansas State: This line is so damn fishy but I’m taking the bait. KSU is 1-3 and have no reason begin favored in any game right now. UCF are 3-0, riding high after beating North Carolina by three scores and they are playing for their former OL coach who died on Sunday. Everything is pointing in UCF’s direction for this game. I’m not sure what I’m missing here.
Notre Dame -4.5 at Arkansas: I think Notre Dame is still a top 10 team that lost to two very good teams to start the year. I think Arkansas is quickly deflating after their last two weeks. Sam Pittman might be the next P4 coach to go down.
USC at Illinois +6.5: This is all about USC not playing up to par in the eastern or central timezone. They failed to cover 20.5 points at Purdue a couple weeks ago. Action Network tells me, “Since 2013, USC is 1-12 outright and just 1-13 ATS when playing in Central and Eastern time.”
Duke at Syracuse OVER 61.5: These are two of the worst defenses in the country. Duke gives up 32 ppg and Syracuse gives up 28 ppg. My math tells me those numbers add up to 60. I’ve mentioned Duke QB Darian Mensah being very turnover prone, so if he can play clean against a bad defense, Duke will have no trouble scoring. Cuse lost its starting QB in the win at Clemson last week. The kid who stepped in was supposed to be the starter before QB Angeli transferred in. I’m betting on him wanting to prove to everyone that he shoulda been the starter all along, and HC Fran Brown will give him every opportunity to do so in the home dome.
Cincinnati at Kansas -4.5: UC HC Scott Satterfield, as a road dawg between 1-7 points, is 3-4-1 ATS. This is just a pure gut feeling and very fade-able.
South Alabama at North Texas -12.5: USA (1-3) and UNT (4-0) are very different. South Alabama wants to run the ball, and is good at it, but that hasn’t helped them in the win column. UNT’s coach is rumored for a P4 job after this season and continuing to win will help his case. They’re QB hasn’t thrown a pick this year and he’s completing over 70% of his passes with more than 1,000 yards. I love this pick.
Utah State at Vanderbilt -22.5: Diego Pavia and Vandy are 3-1 ATS as favorites of at least three touchdowns since last season. The only game they didn’t cover was a 10 point win vs Ball State last year.
Indiana -7.5 at Iowa: I got the bug. IU can score the shit out of it. Iowa gave up 28 points to Rutgers last week. I think we can all agree that Indiana is better than Rutgers. Coach Cig is coming for blood.
LSU at Ole Miss OVER 55.5: I’m just doing what Lane is telling us to do.
Auburn at Texas A&M -6.5: Auburn beat writers aren’t confident in the Tigers in this game. Why should we be? A&M coming off a bye, their next three games are at home, I think they’re in a comfortable place to win by at least a touchdown.
Utah at West Virginia +13.5: Back to it. Utah finally played a real team last week in Texas Tech and got embarrassed at home. Now it’s a cross-country game in Morgantown. WVU got blown out at Kansas, but we knew that was gonna happen. This is the “I Think I Have the WVU Crystal Ball” Game of the Week.
California at Boston College OVER 52.5: Yes, Cal lost 34-0 to SDSU last week. Yes, their three wins are against two awful teams and a Minnesota team traveling out west. But that freshman QB is still pretty solid, I think. Sure, BC is 1-2, but they’ve scored 66 and 40 in two of those games. I don’t know what I’m doing taking this game. Just fade it.
San Diego State at Northern Illinois UNDER 43.5: From all the bias I’ve read, I feel good about this one. NIU (1-2) averages about 13 ppg but they’re getting stronger in the run game. NIU is back home after two straight road losses to Maryland and Mississippi St. They’ll wanna do anything to get a win at home, which means grinding it out when they have the ball. That SDSU (2-1) team was blown out by Washington State and has another win vs Stony Brook. Wash St just got blown out by Washington. I think SDSU is a volatile team doing that think I like: traveling to a different time zone. This game will be ugly.
Tennessee at Mississippi State OVER 63.5: Pretty sure this is the most O/Us I’ve had in a blog so far this year. MSU (4-0) is at home for the 4th straight game. They’ve put up 63 and 38 points the last two games and upset Arizona State before that. Scoring isn’t an issue, and it won’t be against Tennessee. Hell, the Vols let UAB score 24 points last week while Trent Dilfer was taking pictures of the Neyland crowd from the sideline. We know what Tennessee can do on offense. Only thing I’m worried about is this being UT’s first road game of the year.
Arizona at Iowa State -6: Arizona’s (3-0) only notable win is a six point win against Kansas State. This blog has categorized KSU as dead. So that win is irrelevant. Both teams are coming off a bye. Now, ISU (4-0) also beat Kansas State this year, 24-21, in Ireland. But I’m choosing to put my faith in Matt Campbell to have his guys ready against an inferior Big 12 opponent.
Alabama at Georgia -3: Nick Saban is not walking through that door. First off, Bama has not been a road dawg since 2015, ironically against Georgia. I’ve been on Bama’s side in this blog since its week 1 loss to Florida State. But their next two wins were against Who-The-Fuck-Cares University and a dead Wisconsin team. We got Bama at the right time, now it’s time to let them go. Yes, Kirby is 1-6 vs Bama in his career, but there is a ‘1’ in that record. My prediction: that old hag from Guntersville, AL ends up back in the news calling for DeBoer’s job once again.
Oregon +3.5 at Penn State: I don’t know who wins, but I don’t think the winner wins by more than three points. I thought about doing a Penn State 1Q ml bet, a successful bet many times last year, but I don’t think Oregon is gonna be that phased by the White Out. I know it’s the cross-timezone trip for Oregon, and they didn’t cover at Northwestern a couple weeks ago. We also know James Franklin doesn’t win these games often (4-20 vs top 10 teams). We know Charlie Kirk was a big Oregon fan and apparently was gonna be at this game and there will be free TPUSA shirts passed out at the game. We also know this game is just gonna fuckin rock to watch. I don’t trust Penn State being favored by this much. That’s all this is.
UMass at Missouri -44.5: I really like this. Mizzou (4-0) has looked good. Wins of 61-6 and 52-10 over nobodys. 42-31 over Kansas and a 29-20 SEC-opening win over South Carolina. Mizzou also has a bye next week before going to Tuscaloosa. UMass (0-3) is not good. Mizzou HC Eli Drinkwitz will run it up.
BYU -6.5 at Colorado: BYU (3-0) doesn’t have any big wins, they’ve just done what they’ve been expected to do. Colorado (2-2) seems confused and I think Coach Prime doesn’t care as much with his boys in the NFL now. I think the Buffs have like three quarterbacks which means they don’t have one. I imagine a lot of people will take Colorado here cause they’re a home dawg vs a top 25 team. This blog is not doing that.
SEC Insider Picks of the Weekend
Last week: 2-1 / 2025 record: 4-8 / Since 2022: 58-67-3
*the following is verbatim*
Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (1-3 in 2025 / 15-16-1 overall): Cincinnati at Kansas -4.5 – UC lost a home game in Kansas this season already. Do we really think they can win one on the road? Daniels and company too much for the Bearcats.
Kentucky at South Carolina -6.5 – Gamecocks need one here and you gotta fade UK. I think they stink. Give me Lanorris and the Cocks in a get right game at home. Too much Sandstorm
Tennessee -7.5 at Mississippi State – I really do think the Vols are a playoff team. They should have beat Georgia. Lots of points incoming.
Prem League Advisor Pick of the Weekend
2025 record: 2-1 / Since 2023: 10-7
*the following is verbatim*
Liverpool Double Chance + Man City -1.5 -119
I can’t not include Liverpool in the pick this week. I almost went Liverpool ML but think palace at home could scratch out a draw. This City v. Burnley game could get out of hand. Anytime I see a favorite this big it’s normally a blowout by half. City just needs to hold on and not let any back door goals in.
Griffin Weinberg 