Author: griffinweinberg20

“Yeah, I’m thinking I’m back!” – Johnathan Wick (2014)

12-11-1 last week. Over 50% is where this blog needs to be.

Can’t say the same for the SEC Insider, though. Back-to-back weeks of going 1-2. This unidentifiable person’s “Mouthwatering Pick” is winless this year, putting its lifetime record under 50%.

But I think it’s time for a code switch.

I don’t want to hate on the Insider. He/Her/Their success makes this blog all the more better. So, this week, I’m pouring all my lighter fluid onto the Insider’s fire. Because “the fire rises.” – Bane, The Dark Knight Rises (2012) – And we rise by lifting others. (Editor’s note: I did say something mean about the Insider in the ‘Where Griff was RIGHT’ section. Just had to.)

Prem League is back this week as well. The Advisor has a parlay to kick off our Saturday. It’s going to hit.

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Where Griff was WRONG:

San Jose State at Texas -36.5 AND OVER 52.5: “Ya know what? I’m adding the OVER. Since I failed to give a Toretto last week, we’re doubling up this week. Toretto x2. LFG.” – Ever heard of the rope-a-dope? No better place than being 0-2 on the Toretto. I got the sport of college football right where I want it.

Baylor at SMU -2.5: “I was sitting at a bar last Saturday watching Michigan-New Mexico. I had worked 12 hours and just wanted to watch football and drink beer (I think it was anywhere between 1-5 beers. I THINK.). Guy I was sitting next to was named Scott (I THINK). Early 60s, slim figure, college football fan. He’s from Waco, TX. He said no one likes Dave Arranda and he should’ve been fired years ago. This one is for (I THINK) Scott.” – Fuck you, Scott.

South Florida at Florida -18.5: “Aaron Pinsky is the two-time recipient of the Bruce Weinberg Memorial Scholarship. Just found out he is a Gator. #FuckCancer #LFG(ators) –

Where Griff was RIGHT:

Kent State at Texas Tech -47.5: “This is the ‘You wanna pay $50 million for your roster and be treated like one of the big dawgs in college football? Then hit this fucking number,’ Game of the Week.” – 1-0.

Texas State +4.5 at UTSA: “Remember that guy Scott? From the bar I was sitting at?…Scott’s son went to Texas State. This one is also for Scott.” – I’m sorry, Scott.

West Virginia at Ohio +3.5: “Trap game. WVU has the Backyard Brawl next week. Why the fuck would WVU schedule an away game at a decent MAC school the week before a rivalry game?” – I got this text from the SEC Insider after the blog dropped last week: “Hand up Griff, after a conversation with my MAC Insider, WVU has been added to the card.” My question: WHAT THE FUCK IS A MAC INSIDER? If there is something that ANYONE wants to know about the MAC, they can find it out. There are no secrets in the MAC. It was at that moment that I knew this game was a lock.

Now, let’s get to the picks.

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Last week: 12-11-1 / Since 2022: 260-254-5

Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (Last week: 0-2 / Overall: 17-15-1): Wisconsin at Alabama -20.5 – I just think Bama is who we thought they were before Week 1. Yeah, FSU beat the hell out of them. But this is still a good roster and DeBoer is a good coach. Tell that old lady to spend her $70 million on the Toretto instead of DeBoer’s buyout.

Oregon at Northwestern +27.5 – Pacific timezone team crossing two timezones to play in a weird environment. I don’t know if Northwestern has enough to win, but playing in that smaller stadium with an earlier start time for the Ducks, I like Northwestern to cover. And Dan Lanning got his frustrations out last week vs Oklahoma State so maybe he takes it easier this week.

Central Michigan at Michigan -27.5 – Michigan may not be elite, but I think they are head-and-shoulders above G5 teams. Underwood may have been limited last week but he’ll get a confidence boost back in the Big House in the Connor Stallions Bowl. CMU gives up a lot of passing yards. I also don’t want to bet against this Biff Poggi guy who is coaching for Michigan while Moore is out on suspension.

Oklahoma at Temple +23.5 – I don’t recommend tailing me on this one. Temple is 2-0 and off to its best start in years. There were some OU reporters caught on a hot mic talking about how bad the atmosphere will be in Philly, and the Temple coach is using that as motivation. Maybe Michigan isn’t that great and last week’s win for the Sooners wasn’t that spectacular? They got a home game vs ranked Auburn next week so maybe this is a trap game? I don’t like it but I’m doing it.

USC at Purdue +20.5 – From Reddit user imsuperflytnt: “USC has lost 15 consecutive games when traveling to the central or eastern timezone.” I’m not overthinking this one.

Georgia at Tennessee TT u22.5 – Riding with the Insider.

Oregon State at Texas Tech -23.5 – I think Tech is my Louisville from last year. I’m gonna keep dipping into this well until it’s out of water.

Pitt at WVU +7.5 – Last week was the preparation. This week is the execution.

South Florida at Miami (FL) -17.5 – This pick is all the rage across the betting landscape so I’m gonna follow along. Feel free to fade this one, too.

Arkansas at Ole Miss OVER 61.5 – The over has hit in three of their last four games against each other. Lane Kiffin knows a lot of people will be taking this bet and I think he’ll want to make everyone happy.

Ohio at Ohio State -28.5 – I feel like tOSU is getting bored with beating the shit out of teams it has no business playing against, so maybe they let up in the second half here, but they are fully capable of hitting this number. It does feel like it should be a lot higher, though.

Texas A&M at Notre Dame -6.5 – Also an (anonymous) Insider pick, but for context, Marcus Freeman is 4-0 ATS at home after a bye week. All previous spreads were between 21-25.5 points. The over hit in each of those games as well. The Irish scored at least 45 in each of those games. The O/U for this game is 50.5.

Vanderbilt at South Carolina -3 – Riding with the Insider.

Florida +7.5 at LSU – Every Gator fan wants Billy Napier gone. With the way the media talks about both of these teams, shouldn’t this number be higher? “LSU actually has a defense!” “Nuss-Bus!” At Florida on the road in SEC games with a single-digit spread, Napier is 3-1 ATS.

Duke at Tulane -1.5 – It’s Duke QB Darian Mensah going back to the school that helped earn him an $8 million NIL contract. Did this guy really deserve $8 million? He turns the ball over too much. I think going back to his previous school will give him jitters. Duke will have buyer’s remorse after this game.

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SEC Insider Picks of the Weekend

Last week: 1-2 / 2025 record: 2-4 / Since 2022: 56-63-3

*the following is verbatim*

If you’ve faded me you’re doing alright so far.

Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (0-2 in 2025 / 14-15-1 overall): Vanderbilt at South Carolina -3 – Williams-Brice at night? I don’t see it with Vandy here. I like the Cocks by [sic] atleast a TD if not more.

Georgia at Tennessee TT u22.5 – Josh Heupel and UT have not scored more than 17 against Georgia in his career. Big spot for each team. Defense travels.

Texas A&M at Notre Dame -6.5 – Feels like a must win for the Irish. I like the Irish off the bye week at home.

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Prem League Advisor Pick of the Weekend

Last week: 0-0 / 2025 record: 0-1 / Since 2023: 8-7

*the following is verbatim*

Parlay: Newcastle ML + Arsenal ML -109

That bye week last week could not have come at a better time. Confidence was at all time low after losing a -155 bet. This week we move to a strategy that saw many winners last year, parlay the big boys. Two heavy favorites at home, what’s the worst that could happen?

“Swear it was like, ‘I’ll be damned.’
I’m finally back to bein’ who I am.
When we were over, it was overnight.
Light came on, it all felt right.” – Morgan Wallen, I Got Better (I’m the Problem, 2025)

Last week was a big failure.

3-6. Zero care went into the games I picked. Hell, I forgot to pick the Toretto. Just left it blank. And the Notre Dame-Miami game? All I wrote was “Notre Dame.” Not even the spread. Not even “Miami (FL).” Just “Notre Dame.”

You trusted me. And I failed you.

But I’ll be damned. The light came on and I’m feeling like the old me again (over 50% last year and since 2022). I have 24 plays for Saturday. I remembered to pick a Toretto. I put in the research. I’m ready to fucking roll.

Some things will always stay the same, though. Mr. (or Mrs./Ms.) SEC Insider barely got over the Mendoza line. Taking Texas with the MWP and Arch couldn’t get it done. Then picked Syracuse to cover against “TN” (Morgan Wallen, I’m the Problem, 2025). Congrats on picking the SISU boys, Georgia Tech, to handle business against Colorado. I’m in alignment with the Insider (could literally be anyone) on one important pick and am the opposite on another. We’ll see how things shakeout.

And how about the Prem League Advisor? What a wire-back that person is. Gives us Tottenham at -155 and they lose outright. Good news? The Prem is on a bye this week. Thank god.

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Last week: 3-6 / In 2024: 106-102-2 / Since 2022: 248-243-4

Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (Last week: 0-0 / 2024 record: 8-7 / Overall: 17-13-1): San Jose State at Texas -36.5 – At Texas, Sark is 4-1 as a favorite of 35 or more vs G5 teams. The Horns covered all three games last season in this spot. They also scored over 50 points each of the four games they covered so don’t be afraid to take the OVER of 52.5. Ya know what? I’m adding the OVER. Since I failed to give a Toretto last week, we’re doubling up this week. Toretto x2. LFG. Texas -36.5 AND OVER 52.5.

Illinois -3 at Duke

Iowa at Iowa State UNDER 41.5 – It’s the ultimate “take the under” game. Since 2014, the under is 8-2. Last year only went over 36 because of a last-second field goal.

Baylor at SMU -2.5 – I was sitting at a bar last Saturday watching Michigan-New Mexico. I had worked 12 hours and just wanted to watch football and drink beer (I think it was anywhere between 1-5 beers. I THINK.). Guy I was sitting next to was named Scott (I THINK). Early 60s, slim figure, college football fan. He’s from Waco, TX. He said no one likes Dave Arranda and he should’ve been fired years ago. This one is for (I THINK) Scott.

CMU at Pitt -21.5

UConn +7 at Syracuse

Kent State at Texas Tech -47.5 – This is the “You wanna pay $50 million for your roster and be treated like one of the big dawgs in college football? Then hit this fucking number,” Game of the Week. They covered 54.5 last week against Arkansas Pine-Bluff. They better fucking hit this number.

Ole Miss -10 at Kentucky – The Cats shocked Ole Miss in Lafayette last year. This is a revenge game for Lane Kiffin.

Oklahoma State at Oregon -27.5 – Mike Gundy needs to stop talking. Dan Lanning is 4-1 as a home favorite of at least 27 points as head coach (FYI, all five games were vs G5 teams).

Kansas +6.5 at Missouri – I think it’s been a while since the Border War was played in football. Big rivalry game and I imagine Mizzou Stadium (stupid name) will be sold out. But it’s a rivalry game. I expect it to be close. Jalon Daniels has been playing football at Kansas just as long as Perry Ellis was in school. He has big-game experience on the road.

Troy at Clemson OVER 51.5 – I read some article that Troy knows how to put up points. Clemson needs a big response after blowing it vs LSU.

Texas State +4.5 at UTSA – Remember that guy Scott? From the bar I was sitting at? The bar was packed to watch the Michigan game. Every TV was on Michigan-New Mexico. That’s life in the U.P. First thing Scott does after he sits down is asks the bartender, who is profusely sweating from pouring drinks non-stop, “Can you put one of the TVs on Eastern Michigan vs Texas State?”

Bartender (male, mid to late 40s, cannot believe what this guy just asked): “Maybe. What channel?”

Scott (I THINK): “ESPN+.”

I couldn’t believe it.

Bartender (puzzled): “We have that but I’ll have to try and login.”

Scott: “That’s fine.”

Scott’s son went to Texas State. It took the bartender over an hour to actually give a shit, but he did get the game on ESPN+ on one of the TVs. This one is also for Scott(?).

West Virginia at Ohio +3.5 – Trap game. WVU has the Backyard Brawl next week. Why the fuck would WVU schedule an away game at a decent MAC school the week before a rivalry game?

South Florida at Florida -18.5 – Aaron Pinsky (right) is the two-time recipient of the Bruce Weinberg Memorial Scholarship. Just found out he is a Gator. #FuckCancer #LFG(ators)

Arkansas State +23.5 at Arkansas – I believe this is the first ever matchup for these guys. Butch Jones coaching at ASTU. Does Sam Pittman even want to be coaching anymore?

Houston at Rice OVER 39.5

Western Kentucky +7 at Toledo – WKU has one of those “QB and OC transferred to the same school last offseason” situations going on. They’re 2-0 and the QB has 8 passing TDs and over 700 yards so far. Toledo lost 24-16 at Kentucky last week, but they scored with less than two minutes left, so it really wasn’t that close.

Michigan at Oklahoma UNDER 44.5 – Venables is a defensive guy. First road start for Bryce Underwood. He may look like Arch against OSU. I like OU -4.5 as well.

Boston College at Michigan State -4.5

Georgia Southern at USC -28.5 – At USC, Lincoln Riley is 4-0 at home as a 28 point favorite in September.

Ball State at Auburn -43.5

ULM at Alabama -36.5 – They HAVE to. You just know Nick Saban is on Kalen DeBoer’s ass like Robert de Niro/Ben Stiller in “Meet the Parents.” Bama needs to blow the roof off the Rajin’ Cajuns. If they do not, then, the program is officially dead.

UCLA at UNLV +2.5

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SEC Insider Picks of the Weekend

Last week: 1-2 / 2025 record: 1-2 / Since 2022: 55-61-3

*the following is verbatim*

1-2 is not the start we wanted but they can never take away the fact that we were perfect on Friday night to start the season.

Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (0-1 in 2025 / 3-9-1 in 2024 / 14-14-1 overall):  San Jose State at Texas -36.5 – Style Points. I think everyone is [sic] over reacting to Texas. Buckeyes are going to be awesome. Texas will make noise this year. Arch looked like an overrated bum. What better way to bring his confidence back up then to lay one on the Spartans? Texas big. Potential shutout from the D.

Kansas at Missouri -6.5 – One of the sneaky great rivalries in sport. I think this is close for a while then Mizzou pulls away late. I like the Mizzou pass rush and think they wear on Jalon Daniels.

Miami OH +15.5 at Rutgers- Miami played about as poorly as you could possibly play offensively and only lost by 17 to Wisconsin. Rutgers stinks. I know Dequan Finn can complete a forward pass, I’ve seen it before. I like Miami to keep it close.

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Prem League Advisor Pick of the Weekend

Last week: 0-1 / 2025 record: 0-1 / Since 2023: 8-7

*the following is verbatim*

(Prem League is on a bye week)

“Ayy, this goes to Mrs. Right because you swear you do no wrong.” – BigXthaPlug, About You ft. Tucker Wetmore (I Hope You’re Happy, 2025)

“I want my casket laced with guns and roses.” – mgk, goddamn (lost americana, 2025)

“I see you shaking your arse like a rockstar, just like a rockstar. Nobody can touch ya, touch ya, Yeah you know who you arе.” – The Struts, Rockstar (Pretty Vicious, 2023)

These lyrics have been stuck in my head the last couple weeks.

I’ve been listening to all three artists/songs/albums on repeat during my standard (mostly) daily workouts of 59 pull-ups, 210 pushups, 150 crunches and running two (2) miles. I’ll mix in some yoga, stretching or mobility work on the other days, which don’t require me to listen to music. Always try to get 10,000 steps a day. That’s the key to burning fat. I’m getting off topic.

Randomly, throughout the day, those lyrics will pop in my head and then I’ll probably say them out loud, quietly, under my breath. Like most normal people do with songs that are stuck in their head.

But I can’t imagine what my co-workers must think of me. We sit in close quarters, yet I’m not afraid to utter the words (quietly), doing a very bad impression of mgk, “I want my casket laced with guns and roses.” Add that to the constant “Jesus fucking Christ,” and “you fucking idiot,” that I say to myself (quietly) at my desk when trying to meet a deadline, and they must think I have some serious problems (I don’t think I do) and maybe even hate myself (I don’t).

One thing I’m confident that my co-workers do not know about me, is I have a college football gambling blog that is demanded from the masses. When I didn’t release a Week 0 blog last week, the outcry from my followers was hysterical. My mentions looked worse than what’s going on in the Middle East (and whatever part of the world Ukraine and Russia are in).

But Week 0 is called “Week 0” for a reason. Nobody gives a flying fuck about it. Yes, it’s great to have football on TV again, but that isn’t the REAL football we want. The first AMERICAN college football game being played in a FOREIGN nation? That’s what you’ve been waiting about seven months for? Child, please.

Week 1 is upon us. The true beginning of the season. But I do have one more complaint: college football Week 1 shouldn’t kick off on a Thursday. It’s a sport that is meant for Saturdays. The fact that we get Cincinnati at Nebraska in an NFL stadium instead of #1 Texas at #3tOSU as the first major primetime game of the season is a shame. Even if all the people in wheelchairs finna standup if Nebraska ends up winning.

At the end of the day, we should just be happy that football is back, so that’s what I will turn to.

Editor’s note: I work Saturdays now, so I will not be able to watch a lot of college football this year. This is the 4th year of the blog and it will be the most uninformed this blog has ever been. Take that how you’d like. I will have zero analysis on my picks this week.

The SEC Insider is back. The Prem League Advisor is here again. We all start at 0-0 as of this writing.

Before the weekly picks, I have some regular season win totals I like (I’ll try and use DraftKings odds for all my picks):

Ohio State: under 10.5 wins (-140) – Kinda shocked it was -140 to the under. I thought I would be a contrarian with this pick. They went all in last season, Last Dance-style, and it worked but the follow-up is usually underwhelming in these situations. I think they lose three games.

Penn State: over 10.5 wins (-105) – They’re trying to be this year’s Buckeyes. They plucked DC Jim Knowles from Columbus, Allar is back, they got a bunch of dudes who returned instead of going to the draft. Everyone doubted Ryan Day the same way they are doubting James Franklin. I’m not going to ignore the similarities. Not picking them to win it all, but if their only loss is to tOSU, they hit this number.

Indiana: over 8.5 win (+100) – I got to.

Vanderbilt: under 5.5 wins (-125) – Last year was cute. Everyone has the book on Pavia and Co. now. Vandy is going back to the shitter of the SEC.

Alabama: over 9.5 wins (-120) – Even after last year, they’re still Alabama. Deboer gets his OC Ryan Grubb back, who he worked with at Washington when Penix was the QB. The Bama QB Simpson has been riding the pine for two years and got a chance to learn Deboer’s system. It wouldn’t shock me if they go 12-0.

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Last week: 0-0 / In 2024: 106-102-2 / Since 2022: 245-237-4

Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (Last week: 0-0 / 2024 record: 8-7 / Overall: 17-13-1): 

Boise State -5.5 at South Florida

Cincinnati vs Nebraska -6.5

Georgia Tech -4 at Colorado

Texas +1.5 at Ohio State

Old Dominion at Indiana -23.5

Alabama -14 at Florida State

UTSA at Texas A&M -23.5

Utah -5.5 at UCLA

Virginia Tech vs South Carolina -7.5

Notre Dame

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SEC Insider Picks of the Weekend

Last week: 0-0 / 2024 record: 21-34-1 / Overall: 54-59-3

*the following is verbatim*

The biggest room in the world is the room for improvement. And that’s just what we need to do in 2025. For you, for me, for everyone, I have to be better.

Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (3-9-1 in 2024 / 14-13-1 overall): Texas ml (+102) at Ohio State – Did you not think the insider would roll with the SEC in the week 1 MWP? I’m buying the TX hype. Talent and playmakers everywhere. I see TX being able to stop the run. I do not love the Buckeyes having to replace both coordinators. Is Day really going to let Hartline call plays? Welcome to the show Sayin. Sources tell me he left the SEC for a reason..

Georgia Tech -4 at Colorado – I’m bullish on the Jackets this year. Haynes King back for what feels like his 10th year in college. Love the coaching staff and think OC Buster Faulkner will coach circles around the Buffs staff. Ralphie a late scratch with him retiring. Not good. All signs point to GT

Syracuse +14 vs Tennessee – I think the Circus of an off season continues into the regular season for the Vols. Regression incoming. I don’t think they improve on O and the certainly have to regress on D after they carried them last year. Fran Brown has the blue print on how to stop this Tennessee offense from his time at UGA. A lot of points to give on a neutral site in an opener. Sloppy football coming.

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Prem League Advisor Pick of the Weekend

Last week: 0-0 / 2024 record: 6-6 / Since 2023: 8-6

*the following is verbatim*

Tottenham ML -155

Worst thing about being 1-0… When the editor and chief of this blog decides not to post a Week 0 article and my followers don’t receive Bournemouth ML last week.

This week we’re fading Bournemouth. I believe Tottenham is playing the best football in the league right now. Big juice for an easy dub.

The ship is sinking but there is still a chance to make it out alive.

I was 8-9 last week with a couple of live bets on Georgia and Texas A&M (L). The SEC Insider couldn’t hit water if he/she/they fell out of a boat. And the Prem League Advisor may as well be little Jack falling towards the bottom of the ocean.

But Rose has enough room on that piece of wood, and we can still survive, Mythbuster’s be damned. The three of us LOSERS. will float in the water for a little while, lose some weight, then hop on that shit and make our way to land. We are coming out of this on top. Conference championship week is for winners. And we will be winners. Forget everything that’s happened over the last month-plus. Tonight (Friday) is when we get back on track.

I am betting on all the conference title games. Can’t wait. As usual, here are the stats from Evan Abrams at the Action Network I like to use.

Let’s get to the picks.

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Last week: 8-9 / In 2024: 99-99-2 / Since 2022: 238-234-4

Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (Last week: 0-1 / 2024 record: 7-7 / Overall: 16-13-1): ACC: SMU vs Clemson +3 – This is such a great spot for Clemson because 1) they have no business being in this game, 2) the end of the season has been chaotic so Clemson will probably end up stealing a spot in the playoff and 3) Clemson has lost three consecutive games ATS entering the title game and, over the last decade, teams entering a conference championship on a 3+ game ATS losing streak are 7-0 SU/ATS in the title game. I’m definitely sprinkling money line as well. Clemson winning and SMU getting left out while Bama gets an at-large just makes too much sense.

Conference USA: Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State -4 – I’ve not watched one snap from either of these teams this year, so I’m relying on the stats. They played last week and WKU won on a walk-off field goal. Jax State was a half point favorite. This is the fifth time a conference championship will be played when the opponents played each other the previous week. The team that won the previous game went 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS in the the title game. JSU it is.

Mountain West: UNLV vs Boise State -3.5 – Boise State has already beaten UNLV this season, 29-24, at the end of October. I don’t care about betting stats for this game, I’m just betting on Boise to not screw this up and to give us Ashton Jeanty against a P4 team on a national stage. It would be very upsetting to not see Jeanty in the playoff. I appreciate UNLV getting to this point with all the Sluka drama they went through earlier in the year but Jeanty is the storyline. He had 128 yards on 33 carries in the previous game, his lowest total this season. He’s going well over that tonight (Friday). A stat, though: UNLV has lost three straight ATS vs Boise State.

AAC: Tulane at Army +5 and 1H +2.5 – Tulane blew it on Thanksgiving and I think they blow it again tonight (Friday). All they had to do was beat Memphis, at home, as 12.5 point favorites and then they would be in line to get into the playoff. Fifteen teams have entered their conference title game of a SU loss as a double-digit favorite; they are 5-10 SU/ATS in their title games. Army has lost two straight games ATS. Teams going into the conference title game on a 2+ game ATS losing streak are 24-15 ATS in the championship game since 2010. The first half bet is something I did a decent amount earlier this year. Since 2014, when service academy teams are underdogs vs non-service teams, they are 96-66 ATS in the first half. Army is at home, too. They could easily win this game.

Big 12: Arizona State vs Iowa State +1.5 – I’m going against my gut on this one. Arizona State is the obvious choice because of how well they are playing but I think Iowa State has at least one more late game-winning drive in them. ASU has the best player on the field in Cam Skattebo but I love ISU quarterback Rocco Becht. He’s gonna be a top ten pick in a couple of years. And Matt Campbell is great as an underdog, going 36-23-3 ATS at Iowa State and Toledo. If they can find a way to slow down Skattebo, Iowa State will come away with this one.

SEC: Texas vs Georgia – The Lisan Al-Gaib will be making his pick on College Gameday Saturday morning. Whatever the Maud’Dib says, goes. As written.

MAC: Ohio vs Miami (OH) ml -125 – Love and Honor. An aesthetically pleasing color matchup in Detroit. This should be a fun game. I’m going with Miami because of how good Ohio is playing. The Bobcats are on a five game SU/ATS win streak. Since 2017, teams playing in their Conference Championship game on a 5+ game SU and ATS win streak are 2-5 SU and 0-6-1 ATS. Arizona State also qualify under this stat, just FYI.

Sun Belt: Marshall +5.5 at Louisiana Lafayette – Two more teams I know nothing about, Jon Snow. But Marshall is 5-0 ATS as dawgs this season. That’s all.

B1G: Penn State vs Oregon ml -116 – I’m not trusting James Franklin in a big game. Against top five opponents, Franklin is 1-16 SU and 5-12 ATS. I’m just not trusting him. As for the -116 I got, that was a profit boost on Draft Kings. Oregon is -164 on the money line but, with the boost, I felt fine taking them to just win instead of -3.5.

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SEC Insider Picks of the Weekend

Last week: 1-2 / 2024 record: 19-33-1 / Overall: 52-58-3

*the following is verbatim*

If you’ve been fading me I reckon you’ve had a pretty big year at the window. Let’s see if we can finish on a high note.

Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (3-8-1 in 2024 / 14-12-1 overall): MAC Championship: Ohio vs Miami (OH) ml -125 – All hail Chuck Martin. Miami’s beat em once and I think they’ve got the goods to beat em again. Better coach, better academics. Give me the Red Hawks.

SEC Championship: Texas vs Georgia +2.5 – if you can get Georgia, with points, in the state of Georgia, you have to take it, right? Do we really think Texas is going to just tim waltz their way to a conference championship in year 1? Think again.

Big 12 Championship: Iowa State vs Arizona State -1.5 – Who’s hotter than Coach Dilly and the Sun Devils? What a story this has been. Iowa State is boring and wins ugly. Skattebo goes for 140 yards at 2TDs. Run the Damn Ball.

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Prem League Advisor Pick of the Weekend

Last week: 0-1 / 2024 record: 6-5 / Since 2023: 8-5

*the following is verbatim*

Liverpool ML + Man City ML parlay +127

“Yeah let’s bet on a team I haven’t watched all year.” Im (sic) not sure what I was thinking last week that’s on me. Let’s get back to betting on quality football teams. Liverpool is the best team in the league right now and Mo Salah is the best player in the league. City has been awful lately losing 4 out of their last 5. I think with that said, really good ML value for a top team in the league who will get back on track.

Last week was bad.

Very bad.

We went 6-16. Basically everything that could go wrong, did go wrong. The SEC Insider went 0-3 (not surprised). The Prem League Advisor, though, handed us a Saturday morning winner.

Hectic week so no long write-up, but I have 12 Saturday plays for you. The Insider has a Friday game on their board and we’ll start Saturday with another dub on the pitch.

I am 1-0 this week after hitting on Kent State/Buffalo over 48.5. I got more stats from the Action Network’s Evan Abrams. Let’s have ourselves a great holiday weekend.

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Last week: 6-16 / In 2024: 92-90-2 / Since 2022: 231-225-4

Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (Last week: 0-1 / 2024 record: 7-6 / Overall: 16-12-1): Tennessee at Vanderbilt +10.5: Vanderbilt is now 7-0 ATS as dawgs of 7 or more points. What makes you think this game is going to be any different? Tennessee is magically back in the CFP race and I got a feeling they could squander their chance at a bid. Last weekend was crazy enough to make me believe that Vandy could win this outright. I may just sprinkle it.

Michigan at Ohio State OVER 42.5: Since 2013, the over is a perfect 10-0 in Michigan and Ohio State matchups, going over the total by 16.6 PPG. You telling me that Ryan Day, with a 10x better roster than Michigan, doesn’t want to run up the score on Michigan? OSU may hit the over themselves! Set it and forget it.

Kansas -1 at Baylor: Kansas is the hottest team in the country and they need to win this to get bowl-eligible. I’m going to ride the wave.

Louisville at Kentucky +4: In their last five meetings, Kentucky is 5-0 SU/ATS vs. Louisville — the longest such streak for either team in the last 100 years. In the last four meetings Kentucky has entered, where they had a worse record than Louisville, the Wildcats won SU and ATS dating back to 2016. Kentucky is also 4-0 ATS as a home dawg this season.

Notre Dame at USC +7.5: As a favorite of 7 points or more vs. USC, Notre Dame is 7-2 SU but just 2-7 ATS over the last 40 years. The Fighting Irish haven’t covered the spread on the road in USC since 2012, losing four in a row, going 1-3 SU in those games. USC has confidence after switching QBs two games ago. Notre Dame hasn’t played any good, non-service academy offenses since beating Louisville, 31-24, on September 28th. If USC can have even a little bit of offensive success, they can cover.

Maryland at Penn State -24: James Franklin has won ten games in his coaching career by 3 pts or less, his teams are 10-0 SU/ATS in their next game, covering by almost 18 PPG. Over the last two seasons, as a favorite of 20-30 points, Penn State is 4-1 ATS (they didn’t cover vs UCLA this year).

Arizona State at Arizona TT o20.5 and OVER 53.5: Arizona is not going bowling, which means this is probably the last game QB Noah Fifita and WR Tetairoa McMillan will ever play together. They are longtime friends. T-Mac is going top-five in the draft next year. I think Arizona will throw the ball around and these two will want to have a huge game to end their careers. Arizona State has allowed every opponent to score 21 points besides Kansas State (14) and Utah (19). When Arizona State is favored, the over is 5-1 this year.

NC State at North Carolina -3 and OVER 54.5: Kinda like the above statement, this is it for Mack Brown. He’s been fired, but he’s still coaching this game. His guys are gonna have some more motivation to send out their coach on a high note. When NC State is an underdog, the over is 4-0 this year. NC State also needs to win to get to a bowl game. UNC can get scored on. I should take NC State to cover this game, but I think UNC will win. Just need them to hit that number.

Miami at Syracuse +11 and OVER 67: Every week, what do I say? When Miami plays a competent offense, take the over. I don’t care if it hasn’t hit for two straight weeks. Syracuse has scored 31, 33, 31 and 38 points recently. I’m not jumping off the wagon at this point. And for the spread? What gives you the confidence that Miami will win this one with ease? Every one of their games feels like a nail-biter, so I’ll take Syracuse in the dome.

Oklahoma at LSU -5.5: I know this may be a stupid bet but I’m betting on Oklahoma having a letdown after taking down Bama last week. That game could not have gone any better for the Sooners, but Jalen Milroe was terrible and may have lost that game for Bama by himself. Here’s the stat: From Oklahoma’s side, they’ve come off a SU win as an underdog twice under Brent Venables and lost its next game ATS both times. Why not?

Texas at Texas A&M +5.5: This goes back to last week when Mike Elko basically told the world that A&M was focused on Texas, not Auburn. So it was not surprising to see the Aggies lose to Auburn. I’m betting on Elko telling us the truth and Texas not being able to perform against quality opponents.

New Mexico -3 at Hawaii: Since 1990, teams with exactly five wins (who are coming off of a win), who face a team in the regular season, in Week 14 or later, who has four wins or less, are 37-12-1 SU and 29-20-1 ATS. New Mexico is 5-6 while Hawaii is 4-7. New Mexico just upset Washington State as 10.5 point dawgs (they won 38-35). Hawaii have lost two straight. 11pm EST kickoff. I just wanna wake up with a green check mark next to this game.

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SEC Insider Picks of the Weekend

Last week: 0-3 / 2024 record: 18-31-1 / Overall: 51-56-3

*the following is verbatim*

Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (3-7-1 in 2024 / 14-11-1 overall): Michigan at Ohio State -20: This is the biggest day of Ryan Day’s life. He has to win this game. He has to avenge the last 3. He’s the world’s smallest man so I can see him puffing his chest and running this up, scoring late, etc. I would argue this may be his best team and they very well can win it all.

Georgia Tech at Georgia -19.5: I think the Georgia O has turned a corner the last 2 weeks. Big time atmosphere. You can’t “look ahead” to the SEC Championship when you don’t know who you will play.

Miami (FL) at Syracuse +11
I’ve got news for everyone, Miami isn’t that good. Cuse can score with them. This moment is very big for The U. I’m fading

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Prem League Advisor Pick of the Weekend

Last week: 1-0 / 2024 record: 6-4 / Since 2023: 8-4

Ipswich Town Double Chance +105

*the following is verbatim*

This is a team I’ve been waiting to bet on. Finally get a line that is worth it. Recent promote this year, I watched them in the EFL last year a little but hand up haven’t gotten to watch much of them this year. Excited to support the little guy on Saturday