Where Griff was WRONG:
Texas Tech -7 at Arizona State: “Tech is 6-0 ATS now. Not sure if [sic] Same Leavitt is suiting up for ASU. Give me a reason to not keep betting Texas Tech.” – Tech lost 26-22. [sic] Same Leavitt did in fact play.
LSU +1.5 at Vanderbilt: “I don’t think Vandy has been tested enough this year. LSU’s offense hasn’t looked great (haven’t scored more than 20 points vs a P4 team) but their defense is great (have given up either 7 or 10 points in every game besides giving up 24 in a loss at Ole Miss).” – Vandy won 31-24.
Ole Miss +7 at Georgia: “There’s just no reason to believe Georgia will win this game by more than a touchdown.” – Georgia won 43-35.
Where Griff was RIGHT:
Washington at Michigan UNDER 51.5: “The Huskies have not given up more than 24 points all season. Washington’s games have gone UNDER the total in three (3) straight games. Michigan is 3-1 to the UNDER with Sherrone Moore as head coach (OVER is 2-0 with Biff Poggi).” – Michigan won 24-7.
Texas A&M at Arkansas +7.5: “The second straight “I Really Just Wanna Bet On This Team” Game of the Week (1-0, Kent State beat UMass last week)…A&M has looked the part this whole year, but I gotta follow my gut.” – Texas A&M won 45-42.
Cincinnati -21.5 at Oklahoma State: “’I’m gonna continue to bet against OK St until they prove to be competitive.’ I wrote that last week. I will write it again next week.” – UC won 49-17. The real conundrum now is that OK St is at Texas Tech this week. Tech is -38.5. What to do. What to do.
Last week: 10-8 / In 2025: 60-54-3 / Since 2022: 314-298-7
Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (In 2025: 3-5 / Overall: 20-18-1): Wisconsin at Oregon -31.5 – Wisconsin is dead. We know this. Been outscored 71-0 the last two games. 122-20 in four B1G games. Moving on.
Ole Miss +5.5 at Oklahoma – Here’s why you should fade me: Since 2021, the Rebels are 1-5 ATS as an away underdog and 3-7-1 ATS after a loss. Here’s why you should NOT fade me: we all know Ole Miss is the better team right now. The Insider provides analysis into this game in the section below. TLDR: “I think we know what we’ll get from Chambliss. I don’t know which Mateer we will get.”
Virginia at UNC +10.5 – After examining Virginia’s schedule thus far, I’ve determined they are not that serious of a contender (full disclosure: I have not watched a single snap of theirs this season). Their best win is a 30-27 win at Louisville three weeks ago as a 6.5 point dawg. UofL is a fine team at 5-1, but last week’s win at Miami (FL) was more about the Canes looking like ass and Carson Beck throwing four (4) picks. UNC managed to go to California last week and cover as 7.5 point dawgs. I think they show up for this one.
South Florida at Memphis +6 – Both teams are 6-1 SU and ATS. Why is South Florida #18 in the AP poll but Memphis is unranked? I don’t know. Memphis, as a 24 point favorite, lost to UAB last week. Maybe UAB got a little jolt from firing Trent Dilfer and, perhaps, Memphis was looking ahead to this game? Meanwhile, USF had “the two best wins in the country” to begin the season: “upsetting” then-ranked Boise State (now 5-2) and “upsetting” then-ranked Florida (just fired head coach) before losing 49-12 at Miami (FL). I think these teams are equals. This line is way too big.
Auburn at Arkansas -3 – Auburn has lost four (4) straight SEC games by a combined 29 points. They covered the spread in one of those games. Arkansas is 2-0 ATS since Bobby Petrino’s coup about a month ago. Those are just facts. My opinion? Auburn is officially dead to this blog. Hugh Freeze is getting fired. Jackson Arnold is not HIM. Arkansas is due for a win under Petrino and it will come at the hand of the Tigers.
Alabama at South Carolina +11.5 – Strictly taking the stats on this one: Kalen DeBoer is 1-4 ATS as a double-digit favorite away from home at Bama and Shane Beamer is 6-1 ATS vs top-10 teams at South Carolina.
Mizzou at Vandy -3 – I’ve learned my lesson betting against Diego Pavia. Vandy is real, and they are more real than Mizzou. The best team the Tigers have played, Alabama, resulted in a 27-24 loss and an ATS push. A road win at Auburn would look better if Auburn were actually good at football. I like Vandy coming off the emotional win over LSU, but try to get it at 2.5.
BYU at Iowa State – 2.5 – This line SCREAMS BYU. I’m not taking the bait. Iowa State is in overall bad shape, having lost two straight and 4 of the last 5 ATS. But they’re coming off a bye and I think they needed it. From Action Network: Matt Campbell is 6-2 ATS at home after a bye and “Top-15 teams coming off an upset win over a ranked opponent have hit at 44% ATS historically in their next game. When that opponent is coming off a bye (like Iowa State), they have gone just 5-19 ATS (20.8%), including 1-9 on the road.”
Illinois +3.5 at Washington – This line SCREAMS Washington. That’s not even bait. It’s stupidity. All Illinois has done this year is win and cover in every single game besides the two games vs the two best teams in the country, OSU and Indiana. People have been hyping up Washington all year as “under-appreciated,” but they are 3-4 ATS. I think this line is a joke and recommend taking Illinois ml as well.
NC State at Pitt – 6.5 – I’ve been riding Pitt since they made the QB change a few weeks ago and it’s been working. 3-0 SU and ATS in the Panthers’ last three games, two of those as favorites of 6.5 and 9.5.
UMass at Central Michigan -16.5 – UMass is the literal worst team in the country. 0-7 SU but 2-5 ATS. CMU has beaten a team 49-10 this season, so this is possible. No reason to tail me on this one.
Baylor at Cincinnati -3.5 – The Cats are just rolling and Baylor is not. Baylor has lost five (5) straight ATS. UC has covered 4 of its last 5 ATS. There is just no logical reason to take Baylor in this game.
Oklahoma State at Texas Tech -37.5 – “I’m gonna continue to bet against OK St until they prove to be competitive.” I wrote that two weeks ago. I wrote it last week. I will write it again next week.
Texas at Mississippi State +7 – I just don’t know how you can trust Texas, on the road as a touchdown favorite. They look like shit. Texas is 0-2 ATS as a road favorite this season.
Texas A&M at LSU +2.5 – Tailing the Insider.
Houston at Arizona St -7 – I’ve enjoyed betting on Houston most of this season, which means I am more than qualified to know when to bet against them. We faded the Cougars against Texas Tech a few weeks ago. ASU has a healthy Sam Leavitt and is ranked again (#24). I like the Sun Devils at home.
SEC Insider Picks of the Weekend
Last week: 3-0 / 2025 record: 11-13 / Since 2022: 65-72-3
*the following is verbatim*
Fade away boys, fade away. Big sweep for the program last week. Can we get a “Where the Insider was RIGHT” spot this week Griff?
Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (3-4 in 2025 / 17-17-1 overall): Texas A&M at LSU ML +120 – I think the Texas A&M Magic runs out this week. Do we really think they can run the table and go undefeated? Do we really think they can go 11-1? Do we really think they can play for an SEC Title? LSU’s backs are against the wall. Welcome to Death Valley at night.
Auburn at Arkansas UNDER 55.5 – I’m seeing reports of horrific weather in Fayetteville this weekend. Steady rain, gusts of 20+. Im expecting turnovers and bad football.
Ole Miss +5.5 at Oklahoma – I think we see a good response out of the Rebs. All their goals are still ahead of them. Lane knows the Sooners are stealing signals and won’t let that happen. Ole Miss looked pretty darn good last week. I think we know what we’ll get from Chambliss. I don’t know which Mateer we will get. Rebs.
Prem League Advisor Pick of the Weekend
2025 record: 3-3 / Since 2023: 11-9
*the following is verbatim*
Chelsea ML + Newcastle ML +115
No better way to spend your Saturday morning than betting 2 ML favorites, sitting on your couch, and eagerly awaiting a day of college football. That’s what I’ll be doing. We’re on a roll let’s keep the momentum going
Griffin Weinberg 