PATHETIC.
pa·thet·ic
adjective
Definition: miserably inadequate; of very low standard.
Origin: late 16th century (in the sense ‘affecting the emotions’): via late Latin from Greek pathētikos ‘sensitive’, based on pathos ‘suffering’.
Something has to change.
I’ve provided LOSERS. for, I think, five of the last six weeks in this blog. A few mid-week and live bets have gotten me to .500 a couple of those weeks, but, for the most part, it’s been a tragedy for everyone who follows all of my Saturday morning picks. I went 6-6 last week, but take away a 2-0 start during MACtion and a live bet I threw on The U (they lost) and you get 4-5 on the blog. PATHETIC. (Note: we still are 79-68-2 on the season, though)
To make matters worse, the (gladly still anonymous) SEC Insider followed up a 2-1 week by going a perfect 0-3 last week. It was a full SEC card. The Mouthwatering Pick is now 3-6-1 this season. Last week’s MWP, LSU money line, was a clunker. From the blog last week: “Another “Welcome to the SEC” moment for Coach DeBoer.” Here’s what I gotta say: PATHETIC. Welcome to the new world, Mr./Mrs./Ms. Insider. Drop down from that pearly white mountain the SEC has occupied since the introduction of a four-team playoff and take a look around you. The field is wide open now. The SEC is no longer king. Four of the top five teams at the moment are from the B1G. This person seems to think they know everything about “the greatest conference in college sports”. They don’t know jack shit. So what do we have this week? Three picks, two of them not SEC-related. How will it go? Your guess is as good as mine.
And how about our mate across the pond, the Prem League Advisor. Remember when it was a sure-thing we’d start our Saturdays with some money in our pockets? Hah. After a great money line upset a couple of weeks ago, the Advisor gave us a LOSER. last week and is now 2-4 over their last six picks. PATHETIC. We should all be grateful that there is no Prem League action this week because of the international window being open, but this individual is on thin ice, and if things don’t change beginning next week, it’s gonna be a “death or exile” situation from The Dark Knight Rises for the Advisor. A quote from the Advisor about this bye week: “I think I needed that.” Agreed.
It makes no sense for me to evaluate my picks last week. Nobody really cares at this point. You just want free winners so I’m going to provide that for you this weekend. I have one Friday night selection. I’m back to using stats and I get them from Evan Abrams (IU grad) at the Action Network.
Let’s all blindly throw darts at a board and see how this one goes, shall we?
Last week: 6-6 / In 2024: 79-68-2 / Since 2022: 218-203-4
Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (Last week: 0-1 / 2024 record: 7-4 / Overall: 16-10-1): LSU -4 at Florida: LSU are not a bad team, but they’ve had two BAD losses in a row (38-23 at TA&M and 42-13 vs Bama). And I don’t care that DJ Lagway is coming back for this game. Florida still stinks. Stat: Brian Kelly has played 19 career games after getting blown out (20+ pts). He is 12-7 SU and 13-6 ATS in the game after being blown out, including 3-0 SU/ATS with LSU.
Houston at Arizona -1: I’m going against everything I’ve said about Arizona this week because they need to win this game to remain in the hunt (for a bowl game). They’re 3-6. Houston is a very trendy pick of late. They’ve covered three of their last four games, all as underdogs. Arizona are 1-8 ATS this season with five straight losses. Both teams are off a bye, though, if that matters. There’s no reason to bet on the Wildcats. So I’m going to.
Syracuse +9.5 at California: Here’s a stat for ya: Teams to travel from EST in their previous game to a road game in PST are 9-6-1 ATS this season but just 2-5 ATS in the B1G and 7-1-1 ATS in all other conferences. Syracuse played at Boston College last week. Cal also played on the east coast at Wake Forest last week but Cal is (wait for it) the home team this week. Cuse it is.
Penn State -28.5 at Purdue: Stat: Since 2022, Penn State are 9-1 ATS as a road favorite. Their lone ATS loss was at USC this season, a 33-30 win in OT as 3.5-point favorites. They covered 26.5 points at Northwestern last season. They’ve covered six straight games as double-digit road favorites. Why not.
Louisville -20.5 at Stanford and OVER 58: Same exact scenario as Syracuse at Cal. UofL was at Clemson two weeks ago. The Cardinals and Cardinal are both coming off a bye. I like the over because Stanford found their offense over the last two games. Not sure why cause I haven’t watched a single snap of theirs this season. But they went from scoring 7, 7, and 10 points in three games to scoring 24 and 28 over their last two. We know Louisville can score and they have a bad defense. What could go wrong?
Nebraska at USC 1H u25.5: Two big changes for these teams coming out of their bye weeks. USC are starting former UNLV QB Jayden Maiava over Miller Moss. Nebraska just hired Dana Holgerson last week to take over as offensive coordinator for the rest of the year. My logic is that there will be an adjustment period for both teams so scoring may be scarce in the first half. There’s no evidence to back this theory up. Let’s see how it works.
Mizzou +14.5 at South Carolina: An absolute sucker bet. Vegas is just begging me to take the bait and I’m doing it. South Carolina has looked really good recently winning three straight over Vandy, Texas A&M and Oklahoma. Mizzou beat that not-so-great Oklahoma team last week then Coach Drink sounded like he’d been drinking that drink. The Cocks could win this game by 30 but I don’t care. Gimme the bait.
Tennessee at Georgia 1H u23.5: This game is shaping up to be a dogfight. Nico may-or-may-not be playing but UT has a great defense regardless. Georgia is notorious for starting slow. Both teams have to win this game so I could see a lot of playing-it-safe. I’ll bet on that in the first half.
Cincinnati +9.5 at Iowa State: Stat: fade in-conference home favorites who have been bad ATS lately. This system is 14-7 ATS this season. Those fades this week would be Arizona and Iowa State. Remember how I picked Arizona to cover? I’m a walking (typing) contradiction. A tornado of madness. Ain’t no love in Oklahoma when I’m betting on college football. Iowa State has dropped two straight after starting undefeated. Let’s get weird.
Kansas +3 at BYU: The Mainstream Bias Pick of the Week (5-3 in 2024). Everybody loves Kansas and thinks BYJew’s magic is bound to run out. That’s how I determine the MBPOTW by the way. Not by public betting percentage or whatever. But if I see a lot of talk about a certain pick on twitter, in podcasts or whenever I attempt to do research and see the mainstream media talking about it, that’s how I choose it. I love the Cougs. They’ve been great to me. But I do love the bias.
SEC Insider Picks of the Weekend
Last week: 0-3 / 2024 record: 17-26-1 / Overall: 50-51-3
*the following is verbatim*
Simply put, it could be raining pussy and I’d get hit by a dick. Im (sic) just not seeing the field well. But, even the great ones go through slumps. We will #KeepPounding as my beloved Panthers say. Let’s go 3-0.
Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (3-6-1 in 2024 / 14-10-1 overall): Virginia at Notre Dame -23.5: How about some analytics for a change? ESPN S/P says Irish by 27. ESPN FPI says Irish by 27.8. I’m no math major but that leads me to believe the Irish cover here. The Irish are rolling and have everything in front of them. They are seem to be leaking at the right time. (*Editor’s note: that entire last sentence is a “sic”)
Kansas at BYU -3
Kansas has been a trendy pick this week. I’m not seeing it. BYU is playing for everything still. Provo at night is sneaky one of the hardest places to play that you will see.
Missouri +14 at South Carolina
I expect a gross football game. Gross football games tend to be close. The analytics have this one at an about a 1 score game. Drink has this team convinced they have a shot at a playoff berth. Two of the more unlikable coaches in the sport. I see some fireworks coming in the postgame handshake.
Prem League Advisor Pick of the Weekend
Last week: 0-1 / 2024 record: 5-4 / Since 2023: 7-4
Bye week.
Griffin Weinberg 