Tag: football

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College Football Picks Week 13, 2024

griffinweinberg20

I have some terrible news…

…I absolutely LOVE the board. I have 22 Saturday bets for you. It could be a disastrous day. But it also could not.

There are some positives to look forward to. I’m gonna have boots on the ground for Indiana at Ohio State. I feel better about my picks after a solid week last week (6-5 in the blog but I added Clemson -12.5 at Pitt late and they won 24-20, so 6-6 for myself). We’re still hitting at a 53% clip for the season.

The Prem League Advisor got a much needed bye week after a 2-4 stretch. They’ve had some time to sip their tea and eat their crumpets so I’m fully expecting this individual to get right and deliver us a winner to start our Saturday.

However, for our friend the SEC Insider, I just don’t know what more they can do. A 1-2 record last week. Another loss to the Mouthwatering Pick. In all fairness though, he/she/whom locked in that pick at Notre Dame -23.5 vs Virginia earlier in the week but the line closed at 20.5 (depending on where you look) and ND won 35-14. So there is some grace to be given to the Insider. But a loss is a loss is a loss. They are now 18-28-1 on the season. Continue to follow the Insider’s picks at your own peril.

Where Griff was WRONG:

LSU -4 at Florida: “LSU are not a bad team, but they’ve had two BAD losses in a row…Florida still stinks.” LSU may suck. They’ve lost three in a row now and have no signs of life. Losing Bryce Underwood to Michigan doesn’t help either. The Toretto has failed two weeks in a row so I need to deliver a winner for you fine folks.

Nebraska at USC 1H u25.5: “Two big changes for these teams coming out of their bye weeks…My logic is that there will be an adjustment period for both teams so scoring may be scarce in the first half. There’s no evidence to back this theory up. Let’s see how it works.” It didn’t work. There were 28 points scored in the first half and it didn’t feel like this had any chance to hit. Oh well.

Tennessee at Georgia 1H u23.5: “This game is shaping up to be a dogfight.” It wasn’t. I actually missed the first 75% of this game but, from what I read, it was all Georgia after that first quarter. It was 17-17 at half. Tennessee didn’t score in the second half. The Volunteers were supposed to be a fun team to see in the Playoff this season but Nico still has some growing up to do. Georgia should host a playoff game. Tennessee are officially dead.

Where Griff was RIGHT:

Houston at Arizona -1: “I’m going against everything I’ve said about Arizona this week because they need to win this game to remain in the hunt (for a bowl game)…Houston have covered three of their last four games, all as underdogs. Arizona are 1-8 ATS this season with five straight losses…There’s no reason to bet on the Wildcats. So I’m going to.” Great decision. This game wasn’t even close. Arizona won 27-3. I just had a feeling and I’m glad I stuck to it. More of that, please.

Syracuse +9.5 at California: “Here’s a stat for ya: Teams to travel from EST in their previous game to a road game in PST are 9-6-1 ATS this season but just 2-5 ATS in the B1G and 7-1-1 ATS in all other conferences.” Never a doubt. Cuse won 33-25. I did use this formula to justify betting on Louisville -20.5 at Stanford but that didn’t work. However, I also took OVER 58 in the UofL game and Stanford won, 38-35. Betting against Louisville’s defense has become a profitable strategy.

Kansas +3 at BYU: “The Mainstream Bias Pick of the Week (5-3 in 2024).” Make it 6-3 in 2024. Kansas won 17-13. Sometimes, you just gotta follow the bias. The bias has its sights set on another game this week.

A lot of my picks last week were stat-driven. Again, I use stats from the Action Network’s Evan Abrams. Great piece of work he does every week. I used a healthy mix of stats and logic (or, perhaps, illogic) to make my picks this week. Twenty-two of them. Can’t wait. LFG.

Last week: 6-6 / In 2024: 85-74-2 / Since 2022: 224-209-4

Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (Last week: 0-1 / 2024 record: 7-5 / Overall: 16-11-1): Indiana +13 at Ohio State: What’d you expect? I went to IU. I’ve been betting on them all year. Why would I stop now? This will be a close game and people just can’t come to grips with it. OSU’s offensive line is beat up while IU is a top-two havoc-inducing team in the B1G. Kurtis Rourke is the top rated QB in the B1G and one of the best in the country. “But what about the Michigan game?” You know what Michigan has that IU doesn’t? Five-star and (many more) four-star recruits. There is so much more talent on the roster of TTUN, Indiana got beat up in the second half and they still found a way to grind out a win. That may be just how this game plays out. Indiana wins in Columbus by a score of 27-24.

Wake Forest at Miami (FL) OVER 64.5: My rule with Miami is if they play a competent offense, take the over. While this didn’t work against Georgia Tech two weeks ago, I blame that on Haynes King not being able to throw the ball at 100% (he only had six pass attempts but 20 rushes). Wake has scored 24, 36 and 27 points recently. I wouldn’t be shocked if they get to 30 here. I’m trusting the data. Miami are also 5-1 ATS as double-digit favorites this year.

Illinois at Rutgers +1: I just don’t like Illinois and Rutgers has momentum. The Scarlet Knights have won two straight, both as underdogs. Illinois just beat up on a very sad Michigan State team and have losses to Minnesota and Oregon before that. I like Rutgers to win a dirty game in Piscataway.

North Carolina at Boston College OVER 55.5: This line is too low. UNC have scored 31, 35, 41 and 34 points in their last four. BC have scored 28, 37 and 27 points and look just fine with that new QB. BC have given up 38, 31, 31 and 42 points over the last four. Unless I’m missing something, the over is the right play.

UMass +42 at Georgia and UNDER 55.5: Georgia never blows a team out under these circumstances. In their last 10 games as 40+ point favorites, Georgia are 0-9-1 ATS dating back to 2018. They have failed to cover the spread in 13 straight games in that scenario going back to 2015. The under is also 6-2 over their last eight games as 40+ point favorites.

Charleston Southern +33.5 at Florida State and UNDER 44.5: I don’t care who Florida State is going up against in 2024. They have no business being favored by 30-plus, let alone being ANY kind of favorite. The most points the Noles have scored this year was 21 and that was in Ireland. They cannot score. Why do you think it’s gonna change all of a sudden? What motivation do they have this week? Unless Mike Norvell says to his team, “This season has sucked. Take out all your anger on Charleston Southern,” I don’t see a world how they win a football game by 30+ this season.

Arizona +11.5 at TCU: Just like last week, when we took Arizona to handle Utah, they need to win this game to remain in the hunt (for a bowl game). TCU can be scored on and Arizona has momentum. This feels like a lot of points to give for two mediocre teams.

BYU at Arizona State -3: The Mainstream Bias Pick of the Week (6-3 in 2024). It’s unfortunate how BYU has ended up here two weeks in a row but the bias says what the bias wants to say. And the bias does not like the Cougars right now.

Northwestern at Michigan UNDER 36.5: I don’t see where all the points are gonna come from. Michigan has scored over 20 points once over the last five games (24 against Michigan State). Northwestern has 7, 14 and 3 points in three of their last four. They scored 26 against Purdue.

Kentucky at Texas -20.5: I didn’t like that stat about this being the farthest west Kentucky has ever played a football game. Also, Mark Stoops is just 14-20-3 as a double-digit underdog and Sark is 8-5 ATS as a favorite of 17 or more points.

Colorado -2.5 at Kansas: I’d love to take Kansas because they fall into my model of “If Team X needs to win this game to get to a bowl game, take Team X.” However, I think Colorado is on a different wave right now and they’ve increased their scoring over their last three games from 24 to 41 to 49. Kansas knows how to score too, but if this is a track meat, I’ll put my faith in Shadeur and Travis Hunter to win it. And, honestly, with that logic I may as well take the over too. OVER 59.5.

Wisconsin +2.5 at Nebraska: Matt Rhule is 0-8 straight up at Nebraska when they have exactly five wins. That’s funny. And I kinda like Luke Fickell firing the OC this week. He must be really fucking pissed at the guy to fire him with two games left in his second year. I like that shit. I think Wisconsin comes out with more fire than Nebraska and wins.

Pitt +8 at Louisville: I think I told myself in week four or five that I was done betting on Louisville football. I’ve bet on their game every week since. The main reason I’m taking them is because of this: “In the last 30 years, we’ve only seen 10 teams have a 70+ win pct and be on a 3-game SU losing streak. Those teams are 7-3 SU and ATS in their next game, covering the spread by 11 PPG.” Louisville can be scored on. Maybe this is the get-right game for Pitt.

Army vs Notre Dame -14.5 (at Yankee Stadium): I’m not buying it. Notre Dame took the soul out of Navy. I’d love to see Army get the job done but I’m not gonna fall for it. Just not. Stat: When the line is 14 or more in ranked vs. ranked matchups since 2010, the favorite is 65-43-2 ATS, covering by 3.6 PPG

Alabama -13.5 at Oklahoma: Alabama is just a flat out better team. Not gonna fall for it. Nothing shows me that Oklahoma can compete with Bama at this point in the season. Not gonna do it.

Iowa State -7 at Utah: NOT. GONNA. DO IT. Utah have lost six in a row. They lost the Holy War in a bad way then got blown out by Colorado. I think Iowa State got a nice reboot after doubling up Cincinnati last week, 34-17. Again, Utah falls into the, “If Team X needs to win this game to get to a bowl game, take Team X,” model, but Iowa State is the clear cut better team. At worst it ends up being a push. Not gonna fall for the bait.

Texas A&M at Auburn UNDER 46.5: I am gonna do it. Auburn has no business winning this game. The Aggies are better by every margin. But I don’t like Mike Elko slipping up in his press conference about this not being a look ahead game with Texas on the Horizon. Auburn are in the situational spot of, “If Team X needs to win this game to get to a bowl game, take Team X.” But I think Auburn mucks it up and IF they do manage to keep it close, it’ll be a low-scoring game. I love this bet.

Vanderbilt +7.5 at LSU: Vandy are 6-0 ATS as dawgs of 7-plus points. They’re off a bye week. LSU has zero life. I still think LSU wins but why do we trust them to beat Vanderbilt by more than a touchdown? And time could be running out to bet on Diego Pavia in a college football game so why I wanna take advantage of that.

Air Force +3.5 at Nevada: Late night game. Air Force won their last two games and have won three straight ATS. Nevada have lost four games in a row. It’ll be great to wake up and see a winner come in overnight.

SEC Insider Picks of the Weekend

Last week: 1-2 / 2024 record: 18-28-1 / Overall: 51-53-3

*the following is verbatim*

The playoffs have already begun for several teams as far as I’m concerned. Win (Cover) or go home.

Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (3-7-1 in 2024 / 14-11-1 overall): Alabama -13.5 at Oklahoma – Playoffs have started for Bama. Milroe and crew know what’s at stake these next few weeks. I think they win and win big. I think Bama is 1/6 teams who can win it all. Big boom potential. Oklahoma may not go to a bowl. They are a bad football team.

Kentucky at Texas -20.5 – Playoffs have started for Texas. They ain’t going to sleep walk through this one and look ahead to Texas A&M. Kentucky will have their attention. A loss hear puts Texas in no man’s land. A big win here helps them out if they stumble to Texas A&M next week. Kentucky is bad. I think they’re looking to next year at this point. Texas is also 1/6 who can win it all.

Ole Miss -12.5 at Florida – Playoffs have started for Ole Miss. I respect Lagway for playing through this injury. I don’t expect him to be as mobile as before. Ole Miss’ front will get after him. Ole Miss gets back Harris. All systems go for Dart and company. Lane Kiffin knows this is probably going to be one of his best shots at making a run at the title. You guessed it, Ole Miss is 1/6 who can win it all.

Prem League Advisor Pick of the Weekend

Last week: 0-0 / 2024 record: 5-4 / Since 2023: 7-4

Chelsea + Arsenal ML parlay -106

Let’s start the day off right at 7:30 EST. I tried to find Chelsea -1.5 on this match and FanDuel wasn’t offering it. Makes me think they know Chelsea will run away with this one. Arsenal has to get back on track and forest has to cool off. International break was much needed for the reds. I think Arsenal clears.

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College Football Picks Week 12, 2024

griffinweinberg20

PATHETIC.

pa·thet·ic

adjective

Definition: miserably inadequate; of very low standard.

Origin: late 16th century (in the sense ‘affecting the emotions’): via late Latin from Greek pathētikos ‘sensitive’, based on pathos ‘suffering’.

Something has to change.

I’ve provided LOSERS. for, I think, five of the last six weeks in this blog. A few mid-week and live bets have gotten me to .500 a couple of those weeks, but, for the most part, it’s been a tragedy for everyone who follows all of my Saturday morning picks. I went 6-6 last week, but take away a 2-0 start during MACtion and a live bet I threw on The U (they lost) and you get 4-5 on the blog. PATHETIC. (Note: we still are 79-68-2 on the season, though)

To make matters worse, the (gladly still anonymous) SEC Insider followed up a 2-1 week by going a perfect 0-3 last week. It was a full SEC card. The Mouthwatering Pick is now 3-6-1 this season. Last week’s MWP, LSU money line, was a clunker. From the blog last week: “Another “Welcome to the SEC” moment for Coach DeBoer.” Here’s what I gotta say: PATHETIC. Welcome to the new world, Mr./Mrs./Ms. Insider. Drop down from that pearly white mountain the SEC has occupied since the introduction of a four-team playoff and take a look around you. The field is wide open now. The SEC is no longer king. Four of the top five teams at the moment are from the B1G. This person seems to think they know everything about “the greatest conference in college sports”. They don’t know jack shit. So what do we have this week? Three picks, two of them not SEC-related. How will it go? Your guess is as good as mine.

And how about our mate across the pond, the Prem League Advisor. Remember when it was a sure-thing we’d start our Saturdays with some money in our pockets? Hah. After a great money line upset a couple of weeks ago, the Advisor gave us a LOSER. last week and is now 2-4 over their last six picks. PATHETIC. We should all be grateful that there is no Prem League action this week because of the international window being open, but this individual is on thin ice, and if things don’t change beginning next week, it’s gonna be a “death or exile” situation from The Dark Knight Rises for the Advisor. A quote from the Advisor about this bye week: “I think I needed that.” Agreed.

It makes no sense for me to evaluate my picks last week. Nobody really cares at this point. You just want free winners so I’m going to provide that for you this weekend. I have one Friday night selection. I’m back to using stats and I get them from Evan Abrams (IU grad) at the Action Network.

Let’s all blindly throw darts at a board and see how this one goes, shall we?

Last week: 6-6 / In 2024: 79-68-2 / Since 2022: 218-203-4

Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (Last week: 0-1 / 2024 record: 7-4 / Overall: 16-10-1): LSU -4 at Florida: LSU are not a bad team, but they’ve had two BAD losses in a row (38-23 at TA&M and 42-13 vs Bama). And I don’t care that DJ Lagway is coming back for this game. Florida still stinks. Stat: Brian Kelly has played 19 career games after getting blown out (20+ pts). He is 12-7 SU and 13-6 ATS in the game after being blown out, including 3-0 SU/ATS with LSU.

Houston at Arizona -1: I’m going against everything I’ve said about Arizona this week because they need to win this game to remain in the hunt (for a bowl game). They’re 3-6. Houston is a very trendy pick of late. They’ve covered three of their last four games, all as underdogs. Arizona are 1-8 ATS this season with five straight losses. Both teams are off a bye, though, if that matters. There’s no reason to bet on the Wildcats. So I’m going to.

Syracuse +9.5 at California: Here’s a stat for ya: Teams to travel from EST in their previous game to a road game in PST are 9-6-1 ATS this season but just 2-5 ATS in the B1G and 7-1-1 ATS in all other conferences. Syracuse played at Boston College last week. Cal also played on the east coast at Wake Forest last week but Cal is (wait for it) the home team this week. Cuse it is.

Penn State -28.5 at Purdue: Stat: Since 2022, Penn State are 9-1 ATS as a road favorite. Their lone ATS loss was at USC this season, a 33-30 win in OT as 3.5-point favorites. They covered 26.5 points at Northwestern last season. They’ve covered six straight games as double-digit road favorites. Why not.

Louisville -20.5 at Stanford and OVER 58: Same exact scenario as Syracuse at Cal. UofL was at Clemson two weeks ago. The Cardinals and Cardinal are both coming off a bye. I like the over because Stanford found their offense over the last two games. Not sure why cause I haven’t watched a single snap of theirs this season. But they went from scoring 7, 7, and 10 points in three games to scoring 24 and 28 over their last two. We know Louisville can score and they have a bad defense. What could go wrong?

Nebraska at USC 1H u25.5: Two big changes for these teams coming out of their bye weeks. USC are starting former UNLV QB Jayden Maiava over Miller Moss. Nebraska just hired Dana Holgerson last week to take over as offensive coordinator for the rest of the year. My logic is that there will be an adjustment period for both teams so scoring may be scarce in the first half. There’s no evidence to back this theory up. Let’s see how it works.

Mizzou +14.5 at South Carolina: An absolute sucker bet. Vegas is just begging me to take the bait and I’m doing it. South Carolina has looked really good recently winning three straight over Vandy, Texas A&M and Oklahoma. Mizzou beat that not-so-great Oklahoma team last week then Coach Drink sounded like he’d been drinking that drink. The Cocks could win this game by 30 but I don’t care. Gimme the bait.

Tennessee at Georgia 1H u23.5: This game is shaping up to be a dogfight. Nico may-or-may-not be playing but UT has a great defense regardless. Georgia is notorious for starting slow. Both teams have to win this game so I could see a lot of playing-it-safe. I’ll bet on that in the first half.

Cincinnati +9.5 at Iowa State: Stat: fade in-conference home favorites who have been bad ATS lately. This system is 14-7 ATS this season. Those fades this week would be Arizona and Iowa State. Remember how I picked Arizona to cover? I’m a walking (typing) contradiction. A tornado of madness. Ain’t no love in Oklahoma when I’m betting on college football. Iowa State has dropped two straight after starting undefeated. Let’s get weird.

Kansas +3 at BYU: The Mainstream Bias Pick of the Week (5-3 in 2024). Everybody loves Kansas and thinks BYJew’s magic is bound to run out. That’s how I determine the MBPOTW by the way. Not by public betting percentage or whatever. But if I see a lot of talk about a certain pick on twitter, in podcasts or whenever I attempt to do research and see the mainstream media talking about it, that’s how I choose it. I love the Cougs. They’ve been great to me. But I do love the bias.

SEC Insider Picks of the Weekend

Last week: 0-3 / 2024 record: 17-26-1 / Overall: 50-51-3

*the following is verbatim*

Simply put, it could be raining pussy and I’d get hit by a dick. Im (sic) just not seeing the field well. But, even the great ones go through slumps. We will #KeepPounding as my beloved Panthers say. Let’s go 3-0.

Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (3-6-1 in 2024 / 14-10-1 overall): Virginia at Notre Dame -23.5: How about some analytics for a change? ESPN S/P says Irish by 27. ESPN FPI says Irish by 27.8. I’m no math major but that leads me to believe the Irish cover here. The Irish are rolling and have everything in front of them. They are seem to be leaking at the right time. (*Editor’s note: that entire last sentence is a “sic”)

Kansas at BYU -3
Kansas has been a trendy pick this week. I’m not seeing it. BYU is playing for everything still. Provo at night is sneaky one of the hardest places to play that you will see.

Missouri +14 at South Carolina
I expect a gross football game. Gross football games tend to be close. The analytics have this one at an about a 1 score game. Drink has this team convinced they have a shot at a playoff berth. Two of the more unlikable coaches in the sport. I see some fireworks coming in the postgame handshake.

Prem League Advisor Pick of the Weekend

Last week: 0-1 / 2024 record: 5-4 / Since 2023: 7-4

Bye week.

Seth Rogen Step Brothers
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College Football Picks Week 11, 2024

griffinweinberg20

DISAPPOINTED.

dis·ap·point·ed

adjective

Definition 1: (of hopes or expectations) prevented from being realized.

Definition 2: (of a person) sad or displeased because someone or something has failed to fulfill one’s hopes or expectations.

Origin: late Middle English (in the sense ‘deprive of a position’); from Old French desappointer .

I’m DISAPPOINTED. in myself.

As of last Sunday night, my record over the last five weeks was 34-37-1. That may not look terrible to the naked eye, but that is unacceptable by this blog’s standards. Overall this season, we still stand on the right side of history with a record of 75-62-2. But that number is beginning to smell like onions and ketchup. I tried to use POSITIVITY. last week to turn the tide but it resulted in a 4-5 week (3-5 on the blog but I live bet Georgia -3.5 when DJ Lagway went down with a hammy injury. Georgia won 34-20).

We weren’t all LOSERS. last week, though. It was great to see the SEC Insider finish 2-1. One of his/hers/not-sure’s picks was South Carolina +3 vs Texas A&M and this person even predicted an outright win for the Gamecocks. They did win, 44-20. Some sound logic used by the Insider last week has me feeling good about their prospects this week. However, the Mouth Watering Pick of the Week is still in fade territory. Just 3-5-1 this year with a big miss on Clemson last week. I’m gonna stay POSITIVE. It’s a 3-0 week for the Insider.

And how about the Prem League Advisor? The blog pick was Newcastle Double Chance -130, but this individual saw a sign: “A close companion of mine just started a book in which the main character is in the Premier League, the team he plays for… Blackcastle. I have a personal play on Newcastle ML +280.” Blackcastle beat Arsenal, 1-0, and got us started on a great note last Saturday. POSITIVE. vibes across the pond and I can’t wait to start 1-0 on this glorious day once again.

Now let’s get to why I’m DISAPPOINTED. in myself.

Where Griff was WRONG:

Navy -11 at Rice: “Yes, Rice fired their head coach this week…I’m not worried about that…I think Navy can loosen up with the Notre Dame game out of the way and play like a champion today.” Rice won 24-10. A colossal failure on the Toretto. I could not have been more confident in this. I’m gonna blame this loss on the game being delayed by weather for like five hours.

Oregon at Michigan UNDER 45: “Oregon is giving up 14 points or less to teams not named Ohio State or Boise State. Would you put Michigan’s offense in the same class as OSU or BSU? Didn’t think so…No matter what, the Wolverines aren’t putting up points here.” Michigan won 38-17. I shouldn’t have gotten too fancy and just taken the spread instead. I almost did. I’m not happy with myself about this one.

Louisville at Clemson -10.5: “No one has bet on more UofL games this season than me. We know the Cards have a bad defense. Clemson off a bye…they’re beating their ACC counterparts by an average of 19 points in six games. I don’t see why that changes here.” Louisville won 33-21. Clemson never had a chance. UofL outscored them 23-0 in the middle quarters. This is the official dagger in Clemson’s chances of getting to the CFP.

Where Griff was RIGHT:

Duke at Miami (FL) OVER 54.5: “If Miami is playing a competent offense, the over will hit.” Miami won 53-31 and almost hit the over themselves. They’ve only gone under the total once this year and it was against Florida State, a non-competent offense. Miami are at Georgia Tech today and the total is at 63.5. As of this writing, Haynes King is questionable to play. In two games without him, GT have only scored 13 and 6 points. If he plays, I’m gonna take the over. If he doesn’t I’m gonna stay away.

Kansas State -13 at Houston: “This is a dumb, illogical pick that I have no business making. I couldn’t help myself…You can fade this one with confidence.” Houston won 24-19. When I think that I know I’m wrong, I’m usually right about it. I’m good for at least one of these a week now which should result in an easy bet for you to make.

Today is gonna be a great day. I am starting the day at 2-0 after betting on MACtion earlier this week (Central Michigan TT u16.5 and Ohio -20.5). We’re gonna be special today. Let’s get to the picks.

Last week: 4-5 / In 2024: 75-62-2 / Since 2022: 214-197-4

Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (7-3 in 2024, 16-9-1 overall): Michigan at Indiana -14: What else do you need to see? The Hoosiers are THEM. IU hasn’t been favored against Michigan since 1968. This isn’t a look-ahead spot for IU since they have the bye next week. Michigan might be looking to put out the Cig for what the coach said in his first public appearance as Indiana’s coach. I think Cig wants to prove that statement right.

West Virginia at Cincinnati -4.5: I don’t think West Virginia are all that good. They’re 4-4 with a win over an FCS team and wins against Arizona (3-6), Oklahoma State (3-6) and Kansas (2-6). I don’t think UC is that much better but they got a win over Arizona State (6-2) and a home game after a bye week (WVU are also off a bye). The Cats are 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS as a favorite this year. I’m gonna roll with them in a close one.

Iowa State at Kansas +3: Yeah I know I just disrespected Kansas a little but I was just drawn to this one. Jayhawks have looked improved recently by beating Houston 42-14, losing a close rivalry game at Kansas State 29-27, then detoxing with a bye week. Iowa State didn’t have their fourth quarter magic in their first loss of the season to Texas Tech. Still, I feel like this line should be like 7.5 or higher. That’s just weird to me. Kansas it is.

Georgia at Ole Miss +3 and OVER 54.5: I think Georgia has proven to be the best team in the SEC, but they still got their flaws. Carson Beck has looked so bad in so many spots this year. He’s thrown eight interceptions his last three games. But Georgia has still managed to score 30 points in every game this year besides one (13 at Kentucky). Ole Miss can be scored on. I’m betting on Beck throwing a few INTs that’ll give Ole Miss a few more scoring opportunities. And Lane Kiffin loves being a home dawg. He’s 3-0 ATS in that situation at Ole Miss with one win each of the last three years, not counting COVID. Final score: Georgia 29, Ole Miss 28. Georgia forces a safety at some point in the game.

Colorado at Texas Tech OVER 62.5: It’s a lot of points but this is a fun game to bet on. Texas Tech has given up 59, 41 and 35 in three of their last five games. Colorado also has a vulnerable defense but they can score 40 points any random night. Shadeur isn’t worried about second semester. Texas Tech had that emotional win at Iowa State last week but now they can ride that momentum into a home game on FOX. I think both teams show up for this one.

South Carolina at Vanderbilt +4.5: Why are we doubting this team? At home? They’re 6-0 ATS as an underdog. This actually makes no sense. I took this line Thursday morning and it’s now at 6.5. I love it even more. I’m not as impressed about South Carolina’s win over Texas A&M last week cause they had a week to scout Marcel Reese. I think that LSU-A&M game says more about LSU’s in-game adjustments than anything else. Unless Pavia is not playing, you take Vandy as a dawg at home.

UCF at Arizona State OVER 55.5: Dumb illogical bet I have no business making. I seem to lose every one of these bets. I’ll stop one of these days.

Alabama at LSU +3: Also doubles as the Mainstream Bias Pick of the Week (5-2 in 2024). It’s LSU as a dawg in a home night game. You really think I’m gonna pass up on that opportunity? I’ll probably sprinkle ML on this too. The only reason I feel nervous about this is because of what you’ll read below. But it’s gotta turn positive at some point, right?

SEC Insider Picks of the Weekend

Last week: 2-1 / In 2024: 17-23-1 / Overall: 50-48-3

*the following is verbatim*

Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (3-6-1 in 2024 / 14-10-1 overall): Alabama at LSU ML – Another “Welcome to the SEC” moment for Coach DeBoer. How much different would you feel about LSU if Marcel Reed doesn’t come in for A&M and spoil that game? I still love this Tigers team. Night game in Death Valley? Live Tiger on the field? Livvy Dunne and Paul Skenes? Someone play Neck.

Georgia -2.5 at Ole Miss
I think if you can get Georgia to win by a field goal against anyone, you have take it. Surely Beck snaps out of this funk eventually, right? I like Smart in a big game situation over Kiffin. Watch the lines of scrimmage on both sides here. Who do you like in a trench war?

South Carolina at Vanderbilt +6.5
I’m riding with the Dores and Pavia until the wheels fall off. You just simply cannot bet against Diego Pavia. Last week felt like SC’s Super Bowl. I don’t trust Beamer to string together a 3rd win on the road here.

Prem League Advisor Pick of the Weekend

Last week: 1-0 / In 2024: 5-3 / Since 2023: 7-3

*the following is verbatim*

Crystal Palace Double Chance + West Ham Double Chance -107

Boy the early games on Saturday are brutal. No signs this week, back to picking quality teams and expecting a result. Both these teams at home and they are the better side in both games. I expect a draw at worst from both. Let’s start the Saturday off right again.

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College Football Picks Week 10, 2024

griffinweinberg20

POSITIVITY.

pos·i·tiv·i·ty

noun

Definition: the practice of being, or tendency to be, positive or optimistic in attitude.

Origin: It was derived from the adjective “positive” and the suffix “-ity”. The word “positive” has multiple origins, including borrowings from French and Latin. The earliest known use of “positive” was in the Middle English period (1150—1500), and is found in the writing of Geoffrey Chaucer.

Down here on the blog, times aren’t that great recently. But we need to have some POSITIVITY.

I went 7-7 last week, but that’s kind of a cop-out considering I only deliver you fine folks my Saturday picks. I was 2-0 last Friday night, but the blog picks were 5-7. So that’s three straight losing weeks. I could let things fly off the rails at this point, but my overall record this year is still in the green, at 69-57-2. POSITIVITY.

The SEC Insider (probably a good thing this person is still anonymous) is in the midst of the driest of dry spells. Another losing week last week (1-2). Losing overall (15-22-1). I thought last week was when things would turn in the right direction for this individual, but it’s actually this week. The Insider is going 3-0. POSITIVITY.

The Prem League Advisor couldn’t be performing any worse. After starting off 3-0 this year, their picks have gone 1-3 since. Last week was supposed to get them back on track, a classic ML parlay with a sure-fire winner in Man City, but Brighton blew it by giving up two goals near the 90th minute to draw Wolves. It’s bad times across the pond for the Advisor, but he/she/who saw a sign this week. A sign that’ll bring a winner. POSITIVITY.

Where Griff was WRONG:

Ohio State -25.5 vs Nebraska: “Under Ryan Day, in B1G games right off a bye week, NOT including the 2020 COVID season, Buckeyes are 5-0 ATS.” LOSER. Make that 5-1 ATS in that situation. I could not have been more confident in Ohio State beating the shit out of Nebraska last week but, alas, Ryan Day is still the head coach in Columbus. He was born on third base. Can’t win the big game. Makes Buckeye fans nervous every week he steps on the sideline. You’ll be fascinated with how I’m leaning in the OSU-Penn State. POSITIVITY.

LSU +2.5 at Texas A&M: “I have zero reason to doubt LSU at this point of the season. They just find ways to win games.” LOL. LSU was up 17-7 at half before losing 38-23. This quote did not account for Texas A&M bringing in Marcel Reese to shred the LSU defense in the second half. The Tigahs looked clueless trying to defend a running QB like Reece and they got their asses kicked because of it.

Michigan State +4 at Michigan: “I’m not overthinking this one. Just take the Spartans.” I should’ve over-thought it. Michigan won 24-17 and looked competent, not good, but competent at quarterback with Davis Warren. This wasn’t a bad loss in terms of score, but it was bad in terms of logic.

Where Griff was RIGHT:

Indiana -6.5 vs Washington: The Toretto is now 7-2 on the season and many thanks belong the the Hoosiers for that. I was never worried about them. IU won 31-17 with a backup QB. I absolutely love my pick for the Toretto this week.

Recognizing the dumb, illogical picks that I have no business making. That would be Mississippi State +6.5 vs Arkansas (Arkansas won 58-25) and Florida State at Miami (FL) over 54.5 (Miami won 36-14). It would’ve been a winning week for the blog had I not taken these picks. I knew these picks were LOSERS. but I still took them. I see this as a good loss in terms of logic, but a bad loss in terms of the score. POSITIVITY.

Wisconsin (1Q +2.5) vs Penn State: “Wisconsin needs to start quick in this game because Penn State has been very good in the second half of games this year…I’ll bank on the Badgers looking like a top-5 team for at least the first quarter of this one.” This is the sharpest pick I’ve made this year. The Badgers won the first quarter, 3-0, then got outscored the rest of the way and lost 28-13. They probably could’ve won outright but Penn State knows how to run a good pick-six and turned the game with one of those to start the second half.

My card is much smaller than usual this week because I’m trying to be smarter with my picks. It’s gonna work. POSITIVITY.

Happy Saturday. Let’s get to the picks.

Last week: 7-7 / In 2024: 69-57-2 / Since 2022: 208-192-4

Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (7-2 in 2024, 16-8-1 overall): Navy -11 at Rice: This is a classic high school football scenario. “Little brother (Navy)” dominates the first part of their schedule, builds momentum, looks like they can challenge “big brother (Notre Dame)”, but “big brother” is just simply a better team and beats “little brother” with ease (ND 51-14). But, there’s still a lot to play for and “little brother” is still better than all the other scrubs on their schedule and rolls through the second half of the regular season. Navy are 6-1. Rice are 2-6. Yes, Rice fired their head coach this week, but the guy was there 6+ years and lost over half his games. I’m not worried about that. Rice already lost to Army 37-14 this season. I think Navy can loosen up with the Notre Dame game out of the way and play like a champion today.

Air Force at Army -21.5: It’s service academy week on the blog. Army (7-0) are a good team, yeah? Air Force (1-6) are a bad team, yeah? Air Force lost to the other service academy team, Navy, 34-7 about a month ago. Always take the under in these games, but don’t be afraid to bet the spread on the sure-fire better team.

Ohio State (ML -165) at Penn State: I just wanna be safe. The LOSERS. were dissecting this matchup and found too many correlations to the Georgia-Texas game. Like UGA, OSU has already played a top-5 team on the road, and lost. Like Texas, Penn State’s starting QB is (most likely) coming back from an injury to start the game. So many correlations. This is a toss-up but I’m banking on OSU to make less game-altering mistakes. I kinda like the under here as well. I also want OSU to keep winning so, if Indiana stays undefeated, that game in Columbus just means a little more.

Duke at Miami (FL) OVER 54.5: If Miami is playing a competent offense, the over will hit. Florida State is not a competent football team. Duke has failed to hit 21 points just once (14 at Georgia Tech). Miami’s defense is just so bad. Last week’s bet on the over against FSU was dumb and I knew it. I made this pick with ease.

Indiana at Michigan State TT u21.5: Once again, when it comes to IU football analysis, you should read the BSB. I’m tailing the pick there but it’s at a better price now on Draft Kings. Against FBS opponents, Michigan State has scored over 20 points just twice. Their offense is not great. I’m not on the spread cause I’m not sure what Kurtis Rourke’s balls are gonna look like………………….after having thumb surgery last week. If I see him spin it well on the Hoosiers’ opening drive, I may just live bet their spread.

Kansas State -13 at Houston: This is a dumb, illogical pick that I have no business making. I couldn’t help myself. Just betting against Houston. They beat a flailing Utah team by three last week after losing to a flailing Kansas team by 28 the week before. They’ve also been shutout twice this year. Kansas State should, in theory, win this game without any issue. You can fade this one with confidence.

Oregon at Michigan UNDER 45: Two really good defenses. Oregon is giving up 14 points or less to teams not named Ohio State or Boise State. Would you put Michigan’s offense in the same class as OSU or BSU? Didn’t think so. Maybe Oregon blows them out, but maybe Michigan, who has had this game circled on their calendar all year, show a little more fight and give Oregon a few haymakers. If Michigan does keep it close, it’ll be a low scoring game. No matter what, the Wolverines aren’t putting up points here.

Louisville at Clemson -10.5: No one has bet on more UofL games this season than me. We know the Cards have a bad defense. Clemson off a bye. Maybe the over is the play here but Clemson are beating their ACC counterparts by an average of 19 points in six games. I don’t see why that changes here.

SEC Insider Picks of the Weekend

Last week: 1-2 / In 2024: 15-22-1 / Overall: 48-47-3

*the following is verbatim*

Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (3-5-1 in 2024, 14-9-1 overall): Louisville at Clemson -10.5: All the Tigers have done since losing to Georgia week 1 is take care of business. Love Dabo and company coming off a bye with a night game in Death Valley. Louisville has been in 6 straight dog fights. They need a bye in the worst way. Give me the Tigers

Vanderbilt +7.5 at Auburn:
Anyone remember Diego Pavia leading New Mexico State into Jordan-Hare and defeating Auburn last year? De Ja Vu. I love this Vanderbilt team and do not think this Auburn team is any good.

Texas A&M at South Carolina +3:
I have a hard time believing in A&M this week. Big emotional comeback win last week. Let’s be honest, LSU should have won that game last week. We’ve got plenty of tape on on Marcel Reed and game-planned for him this week. I like this Gamecock front to get after them. Sellers limits TO’s, Cocks win outright. Tough environment here too. Someone play Sandstorm

Prem League Advisor Pick of the Weekend

Last week: 0-1 / In 2024: 4-3 / Since 2023: 6-3

Arsenal at Newcastle (Double Chance -130):

*the following is verbatim*

There’s so much I want to say this week but the people only care about results, not words. Major sign came to me Friday morning indicating Newcastle. A close companion of mine just started a book in which the main character is in the Premier League, the team he plays for… Blackcastle. I have a personal play on Newcastle ML +280. Let’s start the day off right this week.

Uncategorized

College Football Picks Week 9, 2024

griffinweinberg20

LOSER.

los·er

Plural: losers.

noun

Definition: a person or thing that loses or has lost something, especially a game or contest.

Origin: The word “loser” originated in English during the Middle English period (1150–1500). The earliest known use of the word was before 1340 in the writings of Richard Rolle, a religious author and hermit. The word is derived from the verb “lose” and the suffix “-er”.

23-25-1.

7-8-1.

1-2.

That’s my, the SEC Insider’s and the Prem League Adviser’s records over the last three weeks, respectively. LOSERS.

I didn’t start this blog to hand out LOSERS. every Saturday. It’s on me to steer this ship in the right direction. There’s nothing the Insider or Advisor can do to change course. I’m the captain. I’m not going to apologize. I’m not going to make excuses. I’m just going to be better and put the other two members of this blog in a better position to make the correct picks every week.

The (anonymous) SEC Insider has had their worst season to date. They went 2-2-1 last week. The definition of “mid”. They’re now 14-20-1 on the season. LOSER. It’s time for me to put the clamps on the Insider.

I’ve placed a restriction on how many picks they can make at three (3) per week. I think this is how we did it when I first welcomed the Insider into our world and I’m hoping this will make him/her/whomever think a little harder about the games they’re picking. I want results. For you. For me. For everyone.

I’ve warned you all, every week, to be wary of following the SEC Insider’s picks because of how bad things have been in that simple brain of theirs. I’m taking the leash off this week. This is the week when it turns in the right direction. I just know it.

The Prem League Advisor, losing two of their last three bets, will be going back to the basics. No more LOSER. bets or standing on their ivory tower and trying to be too smart about how they’re betting the Prem. We wanna start the day with a win so they will be giving us a winner on this glorious day. A good old fashioned moneyline parlay. An auto winner. It has to be.

As for myself, I have a lot to think about. Two straight losing weeks. Am I reading too much of the bias or just the right amount? Am I not trusting my gut enough? Let’s examine.

Where Griff was WRONG:

Iowa State failed to win by 14, so the Toretto was a LOSER. for the second time this season. I don’t know what went wrong in that game. Seriously. I didn’t watch so I have no clue how UCF played so well. I just know that the Cyclones needed a late push to win 38-35. The Toretto needs to be my most confident pick of the week, involving a team that I know well and trust. I don’t know shit about UCF and Iowa State outside of their box scores, so I failed you. And for that, I’m sorry.

UCONN moneyline vs Wake Forest was dumb and the above sentiment applies to this as well. I have to stop making dumb, illogical picks that I have no business making.

Here’s something I wrote last week: “UCLA hasn’t scored 20 points in a game this season. Their offensive explosion isn’t coming in a cross-country trip to Piscataway.” I took under 41. UCLA won 35-32 over Rutgers. I actually felt good about that one.

Where Griff was RIGHT:

Indiana is undaunted. It is mind-BOTTLING, not mind-BOGGLING, but Chazz Michael Michaels mind-BOTTLING how much of a difference a coach can make. IU is a legitimate football school now. I’m not saying they’re making the Playoff just yet, but as long as Coach Cig is in Bloomington, this program can be taken seriously.

Georgia +5 at Texas last week was an easy pick. I didn’t think it was going to be a blowout, but there was no way Georgia was going to let this game get away from them. The loss to Alabama may have been an aberration, or at least the first half of that game. Now we have to have the conversation about how good Texas actually is. I would take them to beat Alabama right now but they are well below the line of Georgia and, hell, I’d like to see them go against LSU cause I think the Tigahs could take them down.

The Mainstream Bias Pick of the Week is now 5-2 on the season. Who woulda thought? There is a clear obvious choice for a pick this week but I’m not going to make it. I just don’t want it on my record. It’s UCF to beat BYU. But I can’t bet against BYJew. Just can’t.

We are already winning this week. I had two (2) Friday night bets that hit (USC -13.5 and Boston College +7). The LOSERS. actually collaborated on taking BC because we wanted to start the week with good vibes. Mission accomplished. This is great news for all of you as well because the last time I had a winning Friday night was Week 4. What happened that Saturday? We went 9-3.

We’re gonna win every bet today. I owe it to you. Let’s get to the picks.

CFB (6-9-1 last week / 64-50-2 in 2024 / 203-185-4 since 2022):

Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (6-2 in 2024, 15-8-1 overall): Indiana -6.5 vs Washington: Last week was the biggest game for IU football in who knows how long. This is now the biggest game in IU football history. I was worried about all the interviews Coach Cig was doing last week. I was wrong. I’m not worried about Kurtis Rourke being out for this game. Tayven Jackson is a veteran and he looked good last week in the second half of a blowout. This is a good nugget from my buddy at Bite-Sized Bison: “In Washington’s last three games — against Rutgers, Michigan, and Iowa — they’ve allowed at least 174 rushing yards in each. Not only is Indiana 7th in rushing success rate, it’s also 23rd in rushing yards per game and 2nd in rushing TDs (as Nebraska knows well). If there was any game Indiana could possibly afford Kurtis Rourke missing, it might be this one.”

Friday: Boston College +7 vs Louisville (W; UofL 31-BC 27)

Friday: USC -13.5 vs Rutgers (W; USC 42-RUT 20)

Navy +13.5 vs Notre Dame: A buddy said he’s going max play on IU so I’m gonna tail him on Navy. Plus, how could you not wanna bet on Navy in this one?

Ohio State -25.5 vs Nebraska: OSU off a bye and Nebraska just got humiliated on national television. As stated in last week’s pick of IU over Nebraska (first half), Raiola is still young and untrustworthy on the road. This will be his just his third road start. Under Ryan Day, in B1G games right off a bye week, NOT including the 2020 COVID season, Buckeyes are 5-0 ATS.

Mississippi State +6.5 vs Arkansas: The Bulldogs have covered the spread in three straight games. They lost all those games, but they covered. They were 37.5, 34.5 and 21.5 dawgs vs Texas, Georgia and TAMU, respectively, losing by an average of 13 ppg. Maybe they just caught those schools in look-ahead spots, but I think these Dogs have some bark in them. This is an easy game to look at and take Arkansas, so I’m going with MSU. (This qualifies as a dumb, illogical pick that I have no business making.)

Oregon -21 vs Illinois: In B1G games, Illinois need OT to beat Nebraska, only scored seven points at Penn State, allowed Purdue to score 49 points and needed OT to win, and beat Michigan, who we now know are complete frauds. It’s been a grueling stretch for the Illini. I’ll take the Ducks with extra rest.

Vanderbilt +18 vs Texas: No Isaiah Bond for Texas (he was limited vs Georgia, 2 catches for 11 yards, and it showed). No senior safety Andrew Mukuba (who played his best game at Texas vs the Dawgs last week). Everything about Texas looks kinda gross right now. I think Vandy took it easy on Ball State last week in a 24-14 win as 28 point favorites. I’m buying the hype. This is the biggest game for Vandy probably ever.

West Virginia +3.5 at Arizona: This is me just betting against Arizona again. I did when Texas Tech beat them three weeks ago. I did when BYU beat them two weeks ago. I’m kicking myself for not taking Colorado last week. West Virginia has better losses than Arizona (to top-25 teams Kansas State, Iowa State and Pitt). That’s all.

Florida State at Miami (FL) (over 54.5): I’d like to take Miami -21 but their defense is so bad, they may actually spark something in Florida State’s offense, despite the Seminoles failing to hit the 20-point mark this season. Miami is great offense, terrible defense. This could be a fight to 55 points. I need to win a fight like this. This is my “Please For The Love Of God Just Hit The Over” pick of the week. (This also qualifies as a dumb, illogical pick that I have no business making.)

LSU +2.5 at Texas A&M: I have zero reason to doubt LSU at this point of the season. They just find ways to win games. Probably shoulda lost to South Carolina and Ole Miss, but they found a way. The “Drake & Josh Theme Song” pick of the week. LSU are literally “Megan”. They are going to spoil your party.

Michigan State +4 at Michigan: How can anyone have faith in Michigan right now? They had their chance to show the nation that they have a competent QB with a bye week to prep Jack Tuttle and they failed the test, losing at Illinois 21-7. They are the most down team in the country right now (more than USC) and Michigan State has momentum after beating Iowa as seven point dawgs. I’m not overthinking this one. Just take the Spartans.

Wisconsin (1Q +2.5) vs Penn State: Wisconsin needs to start quick in this game because Penn State has been very good in the second half of games this year. The theme for college football this week is “this is the biggest game for [insert school] in a long time.” This goes for Wisconsin and Luke Fickell. Camp Randall is going to be jumping. I’ll bank on the Badgers looking like a top-5 team for at least the first quarter of this one.

Cincinnati (1H +3.5) at Colorado: Deion Sanders told the media this week, “We hadn’t started off quick in the night games because that flips our whole schedule.” “Night games” would be games that start at 7:30 pm EST or later. This game starts at 10:15 pm EST. The Buffs have played five such “night games”. They trailed at half in four of them. The only game they led at half was against Colorado State.

SEC Insider picks of the weekend (2-2-1 last week / 14-20-1 in 2024, 47-45-3 overall):

*the following is verbatim*

Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (3-4-1 in 2024, 14-8-1 overall): UC +6.5 at Colorado – Is there a more underrated team in the country? Nobody is talking about the Bearcats, not even their own fans. Sneaky good QB play for the Bearcats this year. Corleone and the big boys get after Sanders. “They told me bust down my AP, perfect timing!”

Vandy +18.5 vs Texas – Vibes out of Austin are not good. Did anyone see the clips of Sark having to get his team up for practice the week of the Georgia game? If you can’t get up for that game then your wood is wet. I love Pavia and Lea. Texas is beat up. The whole Ewers deal on Saturday and this week is odd. Count me out.

LSU ML at Texas A&M – LSU is playing some football since the USC loss. Nussmeier might be the best QB in the nation. OL is dominant. WRs loaded and a scrappy defense. Clear home field advantage with the 12th man but LSU has better football players. Good logic.

Prem League Advisor pick of the weekend (4-2 in 2024, 6-2 overall):

Brighton ML + Man City ML parlay -125

*the following is verbatim*

Back to ML parlays. City is -1000, if that doesn’t hit we deserve to lose this week. Brighton devasted the advisor last week with a 1-0 victory over Newcastle. This Brighton team is legit and Wolves are headed for relegation. Gut check week this week for the advisor, need to win back the trust of my followers. Book it.