I have some terrible news…
…I absolutely LOVE the board. I have 22 Saturday bets for you. It could be a disastrous day. But it also could not.
There are some positives to look forward to. I’m gonna have boots on the ground for Indiana at Ohio State. I feel better about my picks after a solid week last week (6-5 in the blog but I added Clemson -12.5 at Pitt late and they won 24-20, so 6-6 for myself). We’re still hitting at a 53% clip for the season.
The Prem League Advisor got a much needed bye week after a 2-4 stretch. They’ve had some time to sip their tea and eat their crumpets so I’m fully expecting this individual to get right and deliver us a winner to start our Saturday.
However, for our friend the SEC Insider, I just don’t know what more they can do. A 1-2 record last week. Another loss to the Mouthwatering Pick. In all fairness though, he/she/whom locked in that pick at Notre Dame -23.5 vs Virginia earlier in the week but the line closed at 20.5 (depending on where you look) and ND won 35-14. So there is some grace to be given to the Insider. But a loss is a loss is a loss. They are now 18-28-1 on the season. Continue to follow the Insider’s picks at your own peril.
Where Griff was WRONG:
LSU -4 at Florida: “LSU are not a bad team, but they’ve had two BAD losses in a row…Florida still stinks.” LSU may suck. They’ve lost three in a row now and have no signs of life. Losing Bryce Underwood to Michigan doesn’t help either. The Toretto has failed two weeks in a row so I need to deliver a winner for you fine folks.
Nebraska at USC 1H u25.5: “Two big changes for these teams coming out of their bye weeks…My logic is that there will be an adjustment period for both teams so scoring may be scarce in the first half. There’s no evidence to back this theory up. Let’s see how it works.” It didn’t work. There were 28 points scored in the first half and it didn’t feel like this had any chance to hit. Oh well.
Tennessee at Georgia 1H u23.5: “This game is shaping up to be a dogfight.” It wasn’t. I actually missed the first 75% of this game but, from what I read, it was all Georgia after that first quarter. It was 17-17 at half. Tennessee didn’t score in the second half. The Volunteers were supposed to be a fun team to see in the Playoff this season but Nico still has some growing up to do. Georgia should host a playoff game. Tennessee are officially dead.
Where Griff was RIGHT:
Houston at Arizona -1: “I’m going against everything I’ve said about Arizona this week because they need to win this game to remain in the hunt (for a bowl game)…Houston have covered three of their last four games, all as underdogs. Arizona are 1-8 ATS this season with five straight losses…There’s no reason to bet on the Wildcats. So I’m going to.” Great decision. This game wasn’t even close. Arizona won 27-3. I just had a feeling and I’m glad I stuck to it. More of that, please.
Syracuse +9.5 at California: “Here’s a stat for ya: Teams to travel from EST in their previous game to a road game in PST are 9-6-1 ATS this season but just 2-5 ATS in the B1G and 7-1-1 ATS in all other conferences.” Never a doubt. Cuse won 33-25. I did use this formula to justify betting on Louisville -20.5 at Stanford but that didn’t work. However, I also took OVER 58 in the UofL game and Stanford won, 38-35. Betting against Louisville’s defense has become a profitable strategy.
Kansas +3 at BYU: “The Mainstream Bias Pick of the Week (5-3 in 2024).” Make it 6-3 in 2024. Kansas won 17-13. Sometimes, you just gotta follow the bias. The bias has its sights set on another game this week.
A lot of my picks last week were stat-driven. Again, I use stats from the Action Network’s Evan Abrams. Great piece of work he does every week. I used a healthy mix of stats and logic (or, perhaps, illogic) to make my picks this week. Twenty-two of them. Can’t wait. LFG.
Last week: 6-6 / In 2024: 85-74-2 / Since 2022: 224-209-4
Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (Last week: 0-1 / 2024 record: 7-5 / Overall: 16-11-1): Indiana +13 at Ohio State: What’d you expect? I went to IU. I’ve been betting on them all year. Why would I stop now? This will be a close game and people just can’t come to grips with it. OSU’s offensive line is beat up while IU is a top-two havoc-inducing team in the B1G. Kurtis Rourke is the top rated QB in the B1G and one of the best in the country. “But what about the Michigan game?” You know what Michigan has that IU doesn’t? Five-star and (many more) four-star recruits. There is so much more talent on the roster of TTUN, Indiana got beat up in the second half and they still found a way to grind out a win. That may be just how this game plays out. Indiana wins in Columbus by a score of 27-24.
Wake Forest at Miami (FL) OVER 64.5: My rule with Miami is if they play a competent offense, take the over. While this didn’t work against Georgia Tech two weeks ago, I blame that on Haynes King not being able to throw the ball at 100% (he only had six pass attempts but 20 rushes). Wake has scored 24, 36 and 27 points recently. I wouldn’t be shocked if they get to 30 here. I’m trusting the data. Miami are also 5-1 ATS as double-digit favorites this year.
Illinois at Rutgers +1: I just don’t like Illinois and Rutgers has momentum. The Scarlet Knights have won two straight, both as underdogs. Illinois just beat up on a very sad Michigan State team and have losses to Minnesota and Oregon before that. I like Rutgers to win a dirty game in Piscataway.
North Carolina at Boston College OVER 55.5: This line is too low. UNC have scored 31, 35, 41 and 34 points in their last four. BC have scored 28, 37 and 27 points and look just fine with that new QB. BC have given up 38, 31, 31 and 42 points over the last four. Unless I’m missing something, the over is the right play.
UMass +42 at Georgia and UNDER 55.5: Georgia never blows a team out under these circumstances. In their last 10 games as 40+ point favorites, Georgia are 0-9-1 ATS dating back to 2018. They have failed to cover the spread in 13 straight games in that scenario going back to 2015. The under is also 6-2 over their last eight games as 40+ point favorites.
Charleston Southern +33.5 at Florida State and UNDER 44.5: I don’t care who Florida State is going up against in 2024. They have no business being favored by 30-plus, let alone being ANY kind of favorite. The most points the Noles have scored this year was 21 and that was in Ireland. They cannot score. Why do you think it’s gonna change all of a sudden? What motivation do they have this week? Unless Mike Norvell says to his team, “This season has sucked. Take out all your anger on Charleston Southern,” I don’t see a world how they win a football game by 30+ this season.
Arizona +11.5 at TCU: Just like last week, when we took Arizona to handle Utah, they need to win this game to remain in the hunt (for a bowl game). TCU can be scored on and Arizona has momentum. This feels like a lot of points to give for two mediocre teams.
BYU at Arizona State -3: The Mainstream Bias Pick of the Week (6-3 in 2024). It’s unfortunate how BYU has ended up here two weeks in a row but the bias says what the bias wants to say. And the bias does not like the Cougars right now.
Northwestern at Michigan UNDER 36.5: I don’t see where all the points are gonna come from. Michigan has scored over 20 points once over the last five games (24 against Michigan State). Northwestern has 7, 14 and 3 points in three of their last four. They scored 26 against Purdue.
Kentucky at Texas -20.5: I didn’t like that stat about this being the farthest west Kentucky has ever played a football game. Also, Mark Stoops is just 14-20-3 as a double-digit underdog and Sark is 8-5 ATS as a favorite of 17 or more points.
Colorado -2.5 at Kansas: I’d love to take Kansas because they fall into my model of “If Team X needs to win this game to get to a bowl game, take Team X.” However, I think Colorado is on a different wave right now and they’ve increased their scoring over their last three games from 24 to 41 to 49. Kansas knows how to score too, but if this is a track meat, I’ll put my faith in Shadeur and Travis Hunter to win it. And, honestly, with that logic I may as well take the over too. OVER 59.5.
Wisconsin +2.5 at Nebraska: Matt Rhule is 0-8 straight up at Nebraska when they have exactly five wins. That’s funny. And I kinda like Luke Fickell firing the OC this week. He must be really fucking pissed at the guy to fire him with two games left in his second year. I like that shit. I think Wisconsin comes out with more fire than Nebraska and wins.
Pitt +8 at Louisville: I think I told myself in week four or five that I was done betting on Louisville football. I’ve bet on their game every week since. The main reason I’m taking them is because of this: “In the last 30 years, we’ve only seen 10 teams have a 70+ win pct and be on a 3-game SU losing streak. Those teams are 7-3 SU and ATS in their next game, covering the spread by 11 PPG.” Louisville can be scored on. Maybe this is the get-right game for Pitt.
Army vs Notre Dame -14.5 (at Yankee Stadium): I’m not buying it. Notre Dame took the soul out of Navy. I’d love to see Army get the job done but I’m not gonna fall for it. Just not. Stat: When the line is 14 or more in ranked vs. ranked matchups since 2010, the favorite is 65-43-2 ATS, covering by 3.6 PPG
Alabama -13.5 at Oklahoma: Alabama is just a flat out better team. Not gonna fall for it. Nothing shows me that Oklahoma can compete with Bama at this point in the season. Not gonna do it.
Iowa State -7 at Utah: NOT. GONNA. DO IT. Utah have lost six in a row. They lost the Holy War in a bad way then got blown out by Colorado. I think Iowa State got a nice reboot after doubling up Cincinnati last week, 34-17. Again, Utah falls into the, “If Team X needs to win this game to get to a bowl game, take Team X,” model, but Iowa State is the clear cut better team. At worst it ends up being a push. Not gonna fall for the bait.
Texas A&M at Auburn UNDER 46.5: I am gonna do it. Auburn has no business winning this game. The Aggies are better by every margin. But I don’t like Mike Elko slipping up in his press conference about this not being a look ahead game with Texas on the Horizon. Auburn are in the situational spot of, “If Team X needs to win this game to get to a bowl game, take Team X.” But I think Auburn mucks it up and IF they do manage to keep it close, it’ll be a low-scoring game. I love this bet.
Vanderbilt +7.5 at LSU: Vandy are 6-0 ATS as dawgs of 7-plus points. They’re off a bye week. LSU has zero life. I still think LSU wins but why do we trust them to beat Vanderbilt by more than a touchdown? And time could be running out to bet on Diego Pavia in a college football game so why I wanna take advantage of that.
Air Force +3.5 at Nevada: Late night game. Air Force won their last two games and have won three straight ATS. Nevada have lost four games in a row. It’ll be great to wake up and see a winner come in overnight.
SEC Insider Picks of the Weekend
Last week: 1-2 / 2024 record: 18-28-1 / Overall: 51-53-3
*the following is verbatim*
The playoffs have already begun for several teams as far as I’m concerned. Win (Cover) or go home.
Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (3-7-1 in 2024 / 14-11-1 overall): Alabama -13.5 at Oklahoma – Playoffs have started for Bama. Milroe and crew know what’s at stake these next few weeks. I think they win and win big. I think Bama is 1/6 teams who can win it all. Big boom potential. Oklahoma may not go to a bowl. They are a bad football team.
Kentucky at Texas -20.5 – Playoffs have started for Texas. They ain’t going to sleep walk through this one and look ahead to Texas A&M. Kentucky will have their attention. A loss hear puts Texas in no man’s land. A big win here helps them out if they stumble to Texas A&M next week. Kentucky is bad. I think they’re looking to next year at this point. Texas is also 1/6 who can win it all.
Ole Miss -12.5 at Florida – Playoffs have started for Ole Miss. I respect Lagway for playing through this injury. I don’t expect him to be as mobile as before. Ole Miss’ front will get after him. Ole Miss gets back Harris. All systems go for Dart and company. Lane Kiffin knows this is probably going to be one of his best shots at making a run at the title. You guessed it, Ole Miss is 1/6 who can win it all.
Prem League Advisor Pick of the Weekend
Last week: 0-0 / 2024 record: 5-4 / Since 2023: 7-4
Chelsea + Arsenal ML parlay -106
Let’s start the day off right at 7:30 EST. I tried to find Chelsea -1.5 on this match and FanDuel wasn’t offering it. Makes me think they know Chelsea will run away with this one. Arsenal has to get back on track and forest has to cool off. International break was much needed for the reds. I think Arsenal clears.
Griffin Weinberg 