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College Football Picks Week 10, 2024

griffinweinberg20

POSITIVITY.

pos·i·tiv·i·ty

noun

Definition: the practice of being, or tendency to be, positive or optimistic in attitude.

Origin: It was derived from the adjective “positive” and the suffix “-ity”. The word “positive” has multiple origins, including borrowings from French and Latin. The earliest known use of “positive” was in the Middle English period (1150—1500), and is found in the writing of Geoffrey Chaucer.

Down here on the blog, times aren’t that great recently. But we need to have some POSITIVITY.

I went 7-7 last week, but that’s kind of a cop-out considering I only deliver you fine folks my Saturday picks. I was 2-0 last Friday night, but the blog picks were 5-7. So that’s three straight losing weeks. I could let things fly off the rails at this point, but my overall record this year is still in the green, at 69-57-2. POSITIVITY.

The SEC Insider (probably a good thing this person is still anonymous) is in the midst of the driest of dry spells. Another losing week last week (1-2). Losing overall (15-22-1). I thought last week was when things would turn in the right direction for this individual, but it’s actually this week. The Insider is going 3-0. POSITIVITY.

The Prem League Advisor couldn’t be performing any worse. After starting off 3-0 this year, their picks have gone 1-3 since. Last week was supposed to get them back on track, a classic ML parlay with a sure-fire winner in Man City, but Brighton blew it by giving up two goals near the 90th minute to draw Wolves. It’s bad times across the pond for the Advisor, but he/she/who saw a sign this week. A sign that’ll bring a winner. POSITIVITY.

Where Griff was WRONG:

Ohio State -25.5 vs Nebraska: “Under Ryan Day, in B1G games right off a bye week, NOT including the 2020 COVID season, Buckeyes are 5-0 ATS.” LOSER. Make that 5-1 ATS in that situation. I could not have been more confident in Ohio State beating the shit out of Nebraska last week but, alas, Ryan Day is still the head coach in Columbus. He was born on third base. Can’t win the big game. Makes Buckeye fans nervous every week he steps on the sideline. You’ll be fascinated with how I’m leaning in the OSU-Penn State. POSITIVITY.

LSU +2.5 at Texas A&M: “I have zero reason to doubt LSU at this point of the season. They just find ways to win games.” LOL. LSU was up 17-7 at half before losing 38-23. This quote did not account for Texas A&M bringing in Marcel Reese to shred the LSU defense in the second half. The Tigahs looked clueless trying to defend a running QB like Reece and they got their asses kicked because of it.

Michigan State +4 at Michigan: “I’m not overthinking this one. Just take the Spartans.” I should’ve over-thought it. Michigan won 24-17 and looked competent, not good, but competent at quarterback with Davis Warren. This wasn’t a bad loss in terms of score, but it was bad in terms of logic.

Where Griff was RIGHT:

Indiana -6.5 vs Washington: The Toretto is now 7-2 on the season and many thanks belong the the Hoosiers for that. I was never worried about them. IU won 31-17 with a backup QB. I absolutely love my pick for the Toretto this week.

Recognizing the dumb, illogical picks that I have no business making. That would be Mississippi State +6.5 vs Arkansas (Arkansas won 58-25) and Florida State at Miami (FL) over 54.5 (Miami won 36-14). It would’ve been a winning week for the blog had I not taken these picks. I knew these picks were LOSERS. but I still took them. I see this as a good loss in terms of logic, but a bad loss in terms of the score. POSITIVITY.

Wisconsin (1Q +2.5) vs Penn State: “Wisconsin needs to start quick in this game because Penn State has been very good in the second half of games this year…I’ll bank on the Badgers looking like a top-5 team for at least the first quarter of this one.” This is the sharpest pick I’ve made this year. The Badgers won the first quarter, 3-0, then got outscored the rest of the way and lost 28-13. They probably could’ve won outright but Penn State knows how to run a good pick-six and turned the game with one of those to start the second half.

My card is much smaller than usual this week because I’m trying to be smarter with my picks. It’s gonna work. POSITIVITY.

Happy Saturday. Let’s get to the picks.

Last week: 7-7 / In 2024: 69-57-2 / Since 2022: 208-192-4

Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (7-2 in 2024, 16-8-1 overall): Navy -11 at Rice: This is a classic high school football scenario. “Little brother (Navy)” dominates the first part of their schedule, builds momentum, looks like they can challenge “big brother (Notre Dame)”, but “big brother” is just simply a better team and beats “little brother” with ease (ND 51-14). But, there’s still a lot to play for and “little brother” is still better than all the other scrubs on their schedule and rolls through the second half of the regular season. Navy are 6-1. Rice are 2-6. Yes, Rice fired their head coach this week, but the guy was there 6+ years and lost over half his games. I’m not worried about that. Rice already lost to Army 37-14 this season. I think Navy can loosen up with the Notre Dame game out of the way and play like a champion today.

Air Force at Army -21.5: It’s service academy week on the blog. Army (7-0) are a good team, yeah? Air Force (1-6) are a bad team, yeah? Air Force lost to the other service academy team, Navy, 34-7 about a month ago. Always take the under in these games, but don’t be afraid to bet the spread on the sure-fire better team.

Ohio State (ML -165) at Penn State: I just wanna be safe. The LOSERS. were dissecting this matchup and found too many correlations to the Georgia-Texas game. Like UGA, OSU has already played a top-5 team on the road, and lost. Like Texas, Penn State’s starting QB is (most likely) coming back from an injury to start the game. So many correlations. This is a toss-up but I’m banking on OSU to make less game-altering mistakes. I kinda like the under here as well. I also want OSU to keep winning so, if Indiana stays undefeated, that game in Columbus just means a little more.

Duke at Miami (FL) OVER 54.5: If Miami is playing a competent offense, the over will hit. Florida State is not a competent football team. Duke has failed to hit 21 points just once (14 at Georgia Tech). Miami’s defense is just so bad. Last week’s bet on the over against FSU was dumb and I knew it. I made this pick with ease.

Indiana at Michigan State TT u21.5: Once again, when it comes to IU football analysis, you should read the BSB. I’m tailing the pick there but it’s at a better price now on Draft Kings. Against FBS opponents, Michigan State has scored over 20 points just twice. Their offense is not great. I’m not on the spread cause I’m not sure what Kurtis Rourke’s balls are gonna look like………………….after having thumb surgery last week. If I see him spin it well on the Hoosiers’ opening drive, I may just live bet their spread.

Kansas State -13 at Houston: This is a dumb, illogical pick that I have no business making. I couldn’t help myself. Just betting against Houston. They beat a flailing Utah team by three last week after losing to a flailing Kansas team by 28 the week before. They’ve also been shutout twice this year. Kansas State should, in theory, win this game without any issue. You can fade this one with confidence.

Oregon at Michigan UNDER 45: Two really good defenses. Oregon is giving up 14 points or less to teams not named Ohio State or Boise State. Would you put Michigan’s offense in the same class as OSU or BSU? Didn’t think so. Maybe Oregon blows them out, but maybe Michigan, who has had this game circled on their calendar all year, show a little more fight and give Oregon a few haymakers. If Michigan does keep it close, it’ll be a low scoring game. No matter what, the Wolverines aren’t putting up points here.

Louisville at Clemson -10.5: No one has bet on more UofL games this season than me. We know the Cards have a bad defense. Clemson off a bye. Maybe the over is the play here but Clemson are beating their ACC counterparts by an average of 19 points in six games. I don’t see why that changes here.

SEC Insider Picks of the Weekend

Last week: 1-2 / In 2024: 15-22-1 / Overall: 48-47-3

*the following is verbatim*

Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (3-5-1 in 2024, 14-9-1 overall): Louisville at Clemson -10.5: All the Tigers have done since losing to Georgia week 1 is take care of business. Love Dabo and company coming off a bye with a night game in Death Valley. Louisville has been in 6 straight dog fights. They need a bye in the worst way. Give me the Tigers

Vanderbilt +7.5 at Auburn:
Anyone remember Diego Pavia leading New Mexico State into Jordan-Hare and defeating Auburn last year? De Ja Vu. I love this Vanderbilt team and do not think this Auburn team is any good.

Texas A&M at South Carolina +3:
I have a hard time believing in A&M this week. Big emotional comeback win last week. Let’s be honest, LSU should have won that game last week. We’ve got plenty of tape on on Marcel Reed and game-planned for him this week. I like this Gamecock front to get after them. Sellers limits TO’s, Cocks win outright. Tough environment here too. Someone play Sandstorm

Prem League Advisor Pick of the Weekend

Last week: 0-1 / In 2024: 4-3 / Since 2023: 6-3

Arsenal at Newcastle (Double Chance -130):

*the following is verbatim*

There’s so much I want to say this week but the people only care about results, not words. Major sign came to me Friday morning indicating Newcastle. A close companion of mine just started a book in which the main character is in the Premier League, the team he plays for… Blackcastle. I have a personal play on Newcastle ML +280. Let’s start the day off right this week.

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College Football Picks Week 9, 2024

griffinweinberg20

LOSER.

los·er

Plural: losers.

noun

Definition: a person or thing that loses or has lost something, especially a game or contest.

Origin: The word “loser” originated in English during the Middle English period (1150–1500). The earliest known use of the word was before 1340 in the writings of Richard Rolle, a religious author and hermit. The word is derived from the verb “lose” and the suffix “-er”.

23-25-1.

7-8-1.

1-2.

That’s my, the SEC Insider’s and the Prem League Adviser’s records over the last three weeks, respectively. LOSERS.

I didn’t start this blog to hand out LOSERS. every Saturday. It’s on me to steer this ship in the right direction. There’s nothing the Insider or Advisor can do to change course. I’m the captain. I’m not going to apologize. I’m not going to make excuses. I’m just going to be better and put the other two members of this blog in a better position to make the correct picks every week.

The (anonymous) SEC Insider has had their worst season to date. They went 2-2-1 last week. The definition of “mid”. They’re now 14-20-1 on the season. LOSER. It’s time for me to put the clamps on the Insider.

I’ve placed a restriction on how many picks they can make at three (3) per week. I think this is how we did it when I first welcomed the Insider into our world and I’m hoping this will make him/her/whomever think a little harder about the games they’re picking. I want results. For you. For me. For everyone.

I’ve warned you all, every week, to be wary of following the SEC Insider’s picks because of how bad things have been in that simple brain of theirs. I’m taking the leash off this week. This is the week when it turns in the right direction. I just know it.

The Prem League Advisor, losing two of their last three bets, will be going back to the basics. No more LOSER. bets or standing on their ivory tower and trying to be too smart about how they’re betting the Prem. We wanna start the day with a win so they will be giving us a winner on this glorious day. A good old fashioned moneyline parlay. An auto winner. It has to be.

As for myself, I have a lot to think about. Two straight losing weeks. Am I reading too much of the bias or just the right amount? Am I not trusting my gut enough? Let’s examine.

Where Griff was WRONG:

Iowa State failed to win by 14, so the Toretto was a LOSER. for the second time this season. I don’t know what went wrong in that game. Seriously. I didn’t watch so I have no clue how UCF played so well. I just know that the Cyclones needed a late push to win 38-35. The Toretto needs to be my most confident pick of the week, involving a team that I know well and trust. I don’t know shit about UCF and Iowa State outside of their box scores, so I failed you. And for that, I’m sorry.

UCONN moneyline vs Wake Forest was dumb and the above sentiment applies to this as well. I have to stop making dumb, illogical picks that I have no business making.

Here’s something I wrote last week: “UCLA hasn’t scored 20 points in a game this season. Their offensive explosion isn’t coming in a cross-country trip to Piscataway.” I took under 41. UCLA won 35-32 over Rutgers. I actually felt good about that one.

Where Griff was RIGHT:

Indiana is undaunted. It is mind-BOTTLING, not mind-BOGGLING, but Chazz Michael Michaels mind-BOTTLING how much of a difference a coach can make. IU is a legitimate football school now. I’m not saying they’re making the Playoff just yet, but as long as Coach Cig is in Bloomington, this program can be taken seriously.

Georgia +5 at Texas last week was an easy pick. I didn’t think it was going to be a blowout, but there was no way Georgia was going to let this game get away from them. The loss to Alabama may have been an aberration, or at least the first half of that game. Now we have to have the conversation about how good Texas actually is. I would take them to beat Alabama right now but they are well below the line of Georgia and, hell, I’d like to see them go against LSU cause I think the Tigahs could take them down.

The Mainstream Bias Pick of the Week is now 5-2 on the season. Who woulda thought? There is a clear obvious choice for a pick this week but I’m not going to make it. I just don’t want it on my record. It’s UCF to beat BYU. But I can’t bet against BYJew. Just can’t.

We are already winning this week. I had two (2) Friday night bets that hit (USC -13.5 and Boston College +7). The LOSERS. actually collaborated on taking BC because we wanted to start the week with good vibes. Mission accomplished. This is great news for all of you as well because the last time I had a winning Friday night was Week 4. What happened that Saturday? We went 9-3.

We’re gonna win every bet today. I owe it to you. Let’s get to the picks.

CFB (6-9-1 last week / 64-50-2 in 2024 / 203-185-4 since 2022):

Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (6-2 in 2024, 15-8-1 overall): Indiana -6.5 vs Washington: Last week was the biggest game for IU football in who knows how long. This is now the biggest game in IU football history. I was worried about all the interviews Coach Cig was doing last week. I was wrong. I’m not worried about Kurtis Rourke being out for this game. Tayven Jackson is a veteran and he looked good last week in the second half of a blowout. This is a good nugget from my buddy at Bite-Sized Bison: “In Washington’s last three games — against Rutgers, Michigan, and Iowa — they’ve allowed at least 174 rushing yards in each. Not only is Indiana 7th in rushing success rate, it’s also 23rd in rushing yards per game and 2nd in rushing TDs (as Nebraska knows well). If there was any game Indiana could possibly afford Kurtis Rourke missing, it might be this one.”

Friday: Boston College +7 vs Louisville (W; UofL 31-BC 27)

Friday: USC -13.5 vs Rutgers (W; USC 42-RUT 20)

Navy +13.5 vs Notre Dame: A buddy said he’s going max play on IU so I’m gonna tail him on Navy. Plus, how could you not wanna bet on Navy in this one?

Ohio State -25.5 vs Nebraska: OSU off a bye and Nebraska just got humiliated on national television. As stated in last week’s pick of IU over Nebraska (first half), Raiola is still young and untrustworthy on the road. This will be his just his third road start. Under Ryan Day, in B1G games right off a bye week, NOT including the 2020 COVID season, Buckeyes are 5-0 ATS.

Mississippi State +6.5 vs Arkansas: The Bulldogs have covered the spread in three straight games. They lost all those games, but they covered. They were 37.5, 34.5 and 21.5 dawgs vs Texas, Georgia and TAMU, respectively, losing by an average of 13 ppg. Maybe they just caught those schools in look-ahead spots, but I think these Dogs have some bark in them. This is an easy game to look at and take Arkansas, so I’m going with MSU. (This qualifies as a dumb, illogical pick that I have no business making.)

Oregon -21 vs Illinois: In B1G games, Illinois need OT to beat Nebraska, only scored seven points at Penn State, allowed Purdue to score 49 points and needed OT to win, and beat Michigan, who we now know are complete frauds. It’s been a grueling stretch for the Illini. I’ll take the Ducks with extra rest.

Vanderbilt +18 vs Texas: No Isaiah Bond for Texas (he was limited vs Georgia, 2 catches for 11 yards, and it showed). No senior safety Andrew Mukuba (who played his best game at Texas vs the Dawgs last week). Everything about Texas looks kinda gross right now. I think Vandy took it easy on Ball State last week in a 24-14 win as 28 point favorites. I’m buying the hype. This is the biggest game for Vandy probably ever.

West Virginia +3.5 at Arizona: This is me just betting against Arizona again. I did when Texas Tech beat them three weeks ago. I did when BYU beat them two weeks ago. I’m kicking myself for not taking Colorado last week. West Virginia has better losses than Arizona (to top-25 teams Kansas State, Iowa State and Pitt). That’s all.

Florida State at Miami (FL) (over 54.5): I’d like to take Miami -21 but their defense is so bad, they may actually spark something in Florida State’s offense, despite the Seminoles failing to hit the 20-point mark this season. Miami is great offense, terrible defense. This could be a fight to 55 points. I need to win a fight like this. This is my “Please For The Love Of God Just Hit The Over” pick of the week. (This also qualifies as a dumb, illogical pick that I have no business making.)

LSU +2.5 at Texas A&M: I have zero reason to doubt LSU at this point of the season. They just find ways to win games. Probably shoulda lost to South Carolina and Ole Miss, but they found a way. The “Drake & Josh Theme Song” pick of the week. LSU are literally “Megan”. They are going to spoil your party.

Michigan State +4 at Michigan: How can anyone have faith in Michigan right now? They had their chance to show the nation that they have a competent QB with a bye week to prep Jack Tuttle and they failed the test, losing at Illinois 21-7. They are the most down team in the country right now (more than USC) and Michigan State has momentum after beating Iowa as seven point dawgs. I’m not overthinking this one. Just take the Spartans.

Wisconsin (1Q +2.5) vs Penn State: Wisconsin needs to start quick in this game because Penn State has been very good in the second half of games this year. The theme for college football this week is “this is the biggest game for [insert school] in a long time.” This goes for Wisconsin and Luke Fickell. Camp Randall is going to be jumping. I’ll bank on the Badgers looking like a top-5 team for at least the first quarter of this one.

Cincinnati (1H +3.5) at Colorado: Deion Sanders told the media this week, “We hadn’t started off quick in the night games because that flips our whole schedule.” “Night games” would be games that start at 7:30 pm EST or later. This game starts at 10:15 pm EST. The Buffs have played five such “night games”. They trailed at half in four of them. The only game they led at half was against Colorado State.

SEC Insider picks of the weekend (2-2-1 last week / 14-20-1 in 2024, 47-45-3 overall):

*the following is verbatim*

Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (3-4-1 in 2024, 14-8-1 overall): UC +6.5 at Colorado – Is there a more underrated team in the country? Nobody is talking about the Bearcats, not even their own fans. Sneaky good QB play for the Bearcats this year. Corleone and the big boys get after Sanders. “They told me bust down my AP, perfect timing!”

Vandy +18.5 vs Texas – Vibes out of Austin are not good. Did anyone see the clips of Sark having to get his team up for practice the week of the Georgia game? If you can’t get up for that game then your wood is wet. I love Pavia and Lea. Texas is beat up. The whole Ewers deal on Saturday and this week is odd. Count me out.

LSU ML at Texas A&M – LSU is playing some football since the USC loss. Nussmeier might be the best QB in the nation. OL is dominant. WRs loaded and a scrappy defense. Clear home field advantage with the 12th man but LSU has better football players. Good logic.

Prem League Advisor pick of the weekend (4-2 in 2024, 6-2 overall):

Brighton ML + Man City ML parlay -125

*the following is verbatim*

Back to ML parlays. City is -1000, if that doesn’t hit we deserve to lose this week. Brighton devasted the advisor last week with a 1-0 victory over Newcastle. This Brighton team is legit and Wolves are headed for relegation. Gut check week this week for the advisor, need to win back the trust of my followers. Book it.

McLovin Fake I.D.
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College Football Picks Week 8, 2024

griffinweinberg20

We’ve entered the “fake I.D.” weekend of college football.

It’s an incredible slate today and I could not be happier to to be alive for it. But some teams are gonna wish this day never happened. Is Texas really the #1 team in the country or have they just been stuffing little kids in lockers? Is Georgia a legit title contender or are they just another cog in the SEC machine? The loser of Bama/Tennessee will be known as the “Steven Glansberg” of college football.

Steven Glansberg

Can Indiana handle all the noise or will it be another letdown in a big spot? There’s a lot to love about today and we’ll get to it, but let’s go back real quick.

I went 8-9 last week, bringing us to 56-42-1 on the year, but you all did better than me. I whiffed on a Friday night game and I ended up taking tOSU -3.5 at Oregon. You really can’t trust the Buckeyes in these big games, can you? So, while I ended up with a losing record, the rest of you were bestowed another winning day at 8-7. Winning’s winning. But it could’ve been much better. Wisconsin/Rutgers nearly hit the under until the Badgers figured out how score in the second half (42-7, 35 total points scored in 2H), Cal scored the only points of the second half at Pitt (6) and covered the 3.5 when we had Pitt (17-15 Pitt) and Illinois (-23.5) got outscored 40-19 in the second half against Purdue but still won 50-49 in OT.

But a loss is a loss is a loss. Let’s keep knocking at that door.

Where Griff was WRONG:

I need to stop taking games solely based off a good trend I see. Tennessee failed to cover the first half spread for the second straight week and they looked awful in the process. I think we need to cool the talk on Nico. He’s still young and he’ll be the man at some point but it doesn’t look like it’s happening this year. And the “bet the first half spread on service academy dawgs vs non-service academy teams” strategy had no chance. Air Force is bad and looked that way against New Mexico. I need to get back to the basics and let the stats justify my picks.

I should not have bet Kentucky to beat Vandy by two (2) touchdowns. That was just a bad bet and I should have had faith in Pavia. Vandy won 20-13. We did hit the under, but that was another case of letting the trends make the pick.

Where Griff was RIGHT:

The Toretto is now 5-1 on the season after BYJew took care of business against Arizona. The Cougs are now 7-0 after grinding one out against Oklahoma State last night and are kind of like the Indiana of the Big 12. Only difference is BYU have a ranked win against Kansas State. I’ll dip my toes back into that well.

My BATMBPOTW (Bet Against The Mainstream Bias Pick Of The Week) was USC +5 and they barely got it, but they did got it. The Trojans’ condom has broken and it looks like they’ve pulled out of the season. Up next is a road trip to Maryland. That’s called foreshadowing.

The SEC Insider (your guess is as good as mine) actually ended up on the positive side with a 3-2 record. Their change from Oklahoma ATS to South Carolina ATS was a greater maneuver since the invention of the Heimlich. That gives me hope for this weekend with how they are seeing the board. You should still tail at your own discretion, but that’s the kinda move that gets you back on track. One boop for the Insider.

Booping a dog

The Prem League Advisor is back with another pick after the lads had a bye week. I always recommend following along, as this individual is 4-1 this season on their picks. No moneyline parlay today. Just a straight winner.

Like last week, here’s the link to the Action Network page that has a bunch of good stats/trends that I use.

I did bet on Purdue last night (+28.5 vs Oregon), and they lost 35-0, so I’m 0-1 to start the week. That’s typical these days. Y’all should be glad I don’t let you take my Friday picks. They have been awful.

Alright. Happy Saturday. Let’s get to the picks.

CFB (8-9 last week / 56-42-1 in 2024 / 195-177-3 since 2022):

Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (6-1 in 2024, 15-7-1 overall): UCF at Iowa State -13.5: Since getting blown out at home to Colorado, UCF has lost at the lowly Florida Gators and at home to Cincinnati, a game I’m sure that many UCF students looked at before the season and said to their buddies,”We win that game and I could see us being 5-1, maybe 6-0 if everything goes right.” It hasn’t. This team only has the Gasparilla Bowl to play for with a 3-3 record. Iowa State are 6-0 and have covered five straight, including two as road favorites. They’re just a better team.

Virginia +21 at Clemson: I’ve been high on Clemson for a couple weeks now, but some advanced stats (a.k.a bias) helped me take Virginia. Also, yeah, Clemson has been beating the hell outta teams, but who have they played? All teams with losing records besides Georgia, their only loss: Wake Forest (2-4), FSU (poop emoji, didn’t cover), Stanford (2-4), NC State (3-4), App State (2-4). Virginia is at least 4-2. Virginia coach Tony Elliot worked under Dabo from 2011-2021 and this is their first time coaching against each other. In Clemson’s last 10 games as a 20+ point home favorite, their only 3-7 ATS. But they have covered two of their last three.

Wake Forest at UCONN ML -125: I saw a tweet that Dan Hurley was lobbying for fans to get out to the game and it’s Homecoming for UConn (4-2). I also just stated that Wake is not good so I’m standing on business. That’s about it.

Wisconsin at Northwestern (over 41.5): Wisconsin has figured out how to putt and Northwestern’s offense isn’t too shabby, either. Wisconsin has at least 21 in every game besides the Bama game (10) and 94 points in their last two. NW has scored at least 20 points in every game besides the one they played at Washington (5). Both teams are 4-1 to the over over their last five games.

Miami (FL) at Louisville (over 59.5): I just needed a one-week break from betting on a Louisville game. I’d love to take them +5 here but I’m more confident in the over. The U hasn’t scored less than 38 points in each game. I’ve watched enough UofL to know their defense is not great but they can also put up points. Something chaotic is going to happen in this game. I don’t see how this doesn’t hit.

Arizona State at Cincinnati -4.5: Skattebo. Scat-uh-boo. Great name. Gotta have a bad game. That’s how UC covers. They gotta stop RB Cam Skattebo. He’s electric. More broken tackles on the year than Ashton Jeanty and this sick video of one of his touchdowns. He’ll be the focal point of their offense because ASU’s starting quarterback is out so UC has to take away the run. And they’re crossing timezones. Homecoming for UC. Yeah, the Devils were picked last in the Big 12 and now they’re 5-1. They beat Utah without healthy Cam Rising, Kansas (major letdown) by four, and every win is by eight or less points. I’ll take the Cats.

UCLA at Rutgers (under 41): UCLA hasn’t scored 20 points in a game this season. Their offensive explosion isn’t coming in a cross-country trip to Piscataway. Rutgers has seven each of the last two games. Rutgers -5 may be the more sexy bet, but you know what’s more sexy? Money. And the money lies (lay?) on the under.

Nebraska at Indiana (1H -3.5): As much as I wanna take the game spread (-6.5), I’m more confident in the first half. This game will come down to the last five minutes. Nebraska is the best team IU will have seen so far. I think the Hoosiers win, but it’ll be close. The Huskers have played one road game this year: at Pur-don’t. They scored zero points in the first half. I think Raiola(?) still needs some seasoning. Sell-out crowd and Big Noon Kickoff and the Barstool CFB Show will all be there. This game has all the feelings of a big one. One thing that worries me is all the interviews Coach Cig has been doing. It’s been A LOT of them. I know the Pat McAfee interview was moved from last week to this week, and he’s earned the attention, but still.

Auburn at Mizzou -4: I’m tailing the Insider’s MWP. Also, Hugh Freeze teams don’t beat ranked opponents (0-9 since 2020) and his Auburn teams are 1-6 SU as dawgs.

Alabama -3 at Tennessee: I’m betting on who I think is the better QB in this game. Nico has been sus in SEC games. Milroe is having a much better year. This is the epitome of a fake I.D. game. Also, while it’s a big game, this doesn’t feel like the game from two years ago, when Tennessee won 52-49 on a walkoff FG at home. That was one of the greatest games ever. This game will feel like both teams are walking on eggshells. Milroe’s feet are lighter than Nico’s.

Houston +5.5 at Kansas: Just two bad teams and one of them is getting too many points I think. Both coming off a bye. Houston (2-4) beat TCU before the break, 30-19, and Kansas (1-5) has lost five straight, including one to TCU. I read somewhere that Kansas might not have one its team captains, a starting LB. Feel free to fade this one.

NC State at California -9.5: The Wolfpack have not covered a single game this year and they’ve lost two straight home games. Now they’re making a cross-country flight (see a trend) against a scrappy Cal team. I don’t think NC State has any motivation to play this game. Cal at least got GameDay to come out to them.

USC at Maryland +7: Mainstream Bias Pick of the Week (4-2 in 2024)

Ball State at Vanderbilt -26.5: I love betting against bad teams and this is just that. Ball State are 2-4. Last week they beat Kent State (0-6), 37-35, but were favored by three. That was Kent State’s first time covering the spread this year. Vandy may not be Texas A&M from the Manziel years, but they’re pretty good. Diego Pavia has been favored by 20+ points in four career starts, one at Vandy, and he’s 4-0 ATS in those games.

Georgia +5 at Texas: I’m in agreement with the Insider regarding this pick. Texas hasn’t been tested this year. This feels like the right time to back Kirby. I’m not sure who wins this game, but you know it won’t be a blowout. Also, Georgia kinda needs to win this game so they’ll play like it. I can’t imagine a two-loss Georgia team making it to the SEC championship with losses to Bama and Texas. If the Dawgs lose, I don’t think they control their own path to the playoffs. The stats: against top-five teams, Kirby is 11-4 ATS while Sark is 2-8 SU and 4-6 ATS, 0-2 SU/ATS as a favorite. It’s the Dawgs.

———————-

SEC Insider picks of the weekend (3-2 last week / 12-18 in 2024, 45-43-2 overall):

*the following is verbatim*

Let me clear my throat….

I’ve backed the buckeyes twice and been burned twice. Never again. I bought into the hype and the defense. News flash, don’t ever buy into Ryan Day and Jim Knowles’ “Silver Bullets”. I said preseason when Ransom, Sawyer, JTT, Burke etc all decided to come back to “win a championship” that it was really because they didn’t have anywhere else to go. They’re all good college players who will not make it out of their rookie contracts/training camp in the NFL. These are the same guys who have never beaten Michigan or anything of note for that matter. Of course they came back to school. Trust your gut Insider!

Anyways, this has not been the start we wanted, but it’s all about how you respond. The 2nd half of the season begins this week. We’re trusting our gut from here on out….

“It’s time to turn the page”

Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (3-4 in 2024, 14-8 overall): Missouri -4 vs Auburn – Line opened at 7. I still think Missouri has its best football ahead of them. This team still has playoff hopes even tho it seems people are writing them off. Drink dials up an offensive masterclass.

Louisville +5 vs Miami (FL) – Big game Brohm. Sleepy noon kick and a sellout in the Ville. Upset alert IMO.

UK -2 at Florida – What a roller coaster this team has been. Defense travels here. Not sold on Lagway yet. UK plays better on the road it seems.

Georgia +4.5 at Texas – If you can get Georgia with points against anyone I think you take it. Texas hasn’t had a test like this yet. Ewers and the WRs could go nuclear on this Georgia secondary. That’s the battle to watch. I do not think UGA has played their best game yet. If Georgia can play 4 quarters of football they may win outright.

LSU -2 at Arkansas – People may think this is a letdown spot after an emotional game last week. That kind of thinking has gotten me killed this year. LSU has better football players. If Taylen Green is truly a go I’m not sure how effective he can be.

——————-

Prem League Advisor pick of the weekend (4-1 in 2024, 6-1 overall):

Newcastle ML -105

*the following is verbatim*

Let’s keep it simple fellas. I’ve been hearing the noise. “I only give heavy ML favorite parlays” “I could make money betting heavy favorites” Newcastle is a tough place to play. Up north, this team has left more to be desired to start the season. I think Newcastle gets their campaign going with a quality win against a solid side. Let’s ride

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CFB Week 7, 2024

griffinweinberg20

ATONEMENT.

a·tone·ment

noun

Definition(s): reparation for a wrong or injury; (in religious contexts) reparation or expiation for sin.

Origin: early 16th century (denoting unity or reconciliation, especially between God and man); from at one + the suffix -ment, influenced by medieval Latin adunamentum ‘unity’, and earlier onement from an obsolete verb one ‘to unite’.

Today is Yom Kippur, also known the Day of Atonement, the second of the High Holy days, but THE holiest day of the year in Judaism (Rosh Hashanah, the Jewish New Year, was last week).

Last (Friday) night, I attended services with my mom. I took time to reflect on my sins from the past year. I’d like to use this safe space to ask for forgiveness for a few things.

FORGIVE ME, for not fasting during this holiday, as-is custom during Yom Kippur, and instead, last night after services, eating the leftover pork fried rice and chicken w/broccoli from Johnny Chan 2 that my mother and I indulged in prior to services.

FORGIVE ME, for continuing to follow in the footsteps of the (anonymous) SEC Insider. They are a putrid 9-16 ATS this season. Last week, they went 2-4, losing the Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (Tennessee -13.5) and Alabama (-22.5) straight-up. I already have regrets on backing their MWP today. But my loyalty for this individual is too strong. I just can’t help myself. Our stars do align on one other game. You should not follow the Insider until things turn around. Perhaps repenting their sins is in their near future.

FORGIVE ME, for continuing to believe in Louisville football as a top-15 team. The signs showed us that fourth quarter luck played a big role in UofL starting out 3-0-1 ATS prior to last week. I backed them again, -6.5 vs SMU at home, and they trailed the whole game, losing 34-27. I shall follow the Cardinals no more on the gridiron. My toes became too crinkly.

FORGIVE ME, for spending my hard(ly) earned dollars on Bengals tickets and the Brown family. Without Joe Burrow, we wouldn’t have a pot to piss in. I’ve attended two Who Dey games this year, both ending in heart-breaking fashion, so I shall do that no more (unless we’re either playing for a playoff spot or are in the playoffs, somehow).

While not perfect (I am covering at a 59% clip, though), and there is much more to atone for, I feel comfortable moving into this New Year with a clear head. And I think it’s important to reflect on some of the positives from year’s last:

I am a proud Indiana Hoosier football fan, the first team in the realm to qualify for a bowl game, and a follower of the “Light the Cig” movement. In this blog, we are 4-0 ATS betting on the Hoosiers. Troy Aikman is heaping praise on Coach Cig. Together, we can all be undaunted.

I am a proud follower of the Prem League Advisor. They are 4-1 this year, 6-1 overall in this blog. No Prem this week, but I’m glad to have their services in this blog.

I am proud of my efforts to improve my eating habits and hit the gym almost every day before work. I shall carry that work ethic into this New Year.

I am grateful for YOU, the readers of this blog. Together, we can grow stronger and continue to dish out winners to those who seek them on a weekly basis. If there is anything you seek, answers or repentance or recommendations for a good delicatessen (Marx Bagels), I am here for you.

Now, before we get to the picks, I’d like to say that most of the stats I get are from the Action Network. Not all of them, but most of them. They do a great job of painting a picture. But every picture has its own interpretations.

My interpretations are hitting at a 59% clip, so far.

Alright. Happy Saturday. Let’s get to the picks.

CFB (9-7 last week / 48-33-1 in 2024 / 187-168-3 since 2022):

Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (5-1 in 2024, 14-7-1 overall): Arizona at BYU -3: Last (Friday) night, I also asked for forgiveness for not betting on BYU football yet this season, despite the mormon Cougars having a jewish QB, Jake Retzlaff, and being 5-0 ATS/SU this season. Time to back the tribe. Gut Yontif.

Friday: Northwestern at Maryland (under 45.5) – LOST

Clemson -20 at Wake Forest: Clemson is a good team. The Georgia game was an outlier. Since week one, Clemson has covered their next four games in MY book (last week I locked in at -14.5 before the line moved to Clemson -16.5 at closing. They beat Florida State 29-13. I can prove it, if you’d like, because of INTEGRITY.). An odd stat: in the game after playing Florida State, Clemson are 12-3 ATS under Dabo, winning by 25 ppg.

Washington at Iowa -2.5: Iowa is good. They got their shit rocked by tOSU last week but that was expected. Washington is mid. They traveled to Rutgers a couple weeks ago, their first B1G road game, and lost. They came back home and beat another mid team in Michigan. Redemption from the natty last year. Now they cross two timezones for a game in middle Earth. You think anyone on the Huskies has ever eaten a Casey’s pizza? This is another “welcome to the B1G” moment for Washington. After a loss, Kirk Ferentz is 15-5-1 ATS at home as a favorite or underdog of less than a touchdown.

Wisconsin at Rutgers (under 43.5): This just has the feelings of a classic B1G game. Wisconsin did score 52 last week but Purdue is just a bad team that already fired its offensive coordinator a few weeks ago, the great Graham Harrell. The Badgers have scored 21 and 10 points against their other two Power Five (Four) opponents, USC and Alabama, respectively. Against three Power opponents, Rutgers’ scoring has gone from 26 points to 21 points to seven points.

California at Pittsburgh -3.5: I am tailing the SEC Insider here because I believe in Pitt. They are 5-0 ATS/SU. I’ve seen lots of the mainstream bias heaping praise on their quarterback. Just gonna ride with it.

Texas -15.5 vs Oklahoma: Mainstream Bias pick of the week (3-2 in 2024)

Purdue at Illinois -23: As stated above, Purdue is not a good football team. They cannot score. Fellas keep de-committing from Purdue. Illinois is 4-1. I’m just betting against Purdue. Plain and simple.

Penn State at USC +5: I would not advise you to take this pick. I’m betting on Penn State having their annual meltdown a little earlier than the tOSU game in a few weeks. The Nittany Lions will have two losses this season. They can still win this game, but there has been so much negative attention on USC over the last couple weeks that it makes me feel good about this bet. This is basically my BATMBPOTW (Bet Against The Mainstream Bias Pick Of The Week).

Cincinnati +3.5 at UCF: This is a tail from a trusted UC Insider. I also think UCF are in shambles after losing at home, as 13 point favorites, to Colorado a couple weeks ago then losing at Florida, 24-13, as one-point road favorites last week. Bearcats are coming off a bye. Since last season, under Scott Satterfield, UC are 2-1 SU with a rest advantage, if that helps you at all.

Florida at Tennessee (1H -7.5): I’ve given you the stats in my previous blogs. Josh Heupel’s teams have covered the first half spread 67% of the time in his 6+ year coaching career. A new one: when his teams are laying -7 or more in the first half, they are 29-9-2 ATS in the first half. Tennessee didn’t cover -7.5 last week at Arkansas. There’s no way they don’t hit the number two weeks in a row, is there?

Air Force (1H +3.5) at New Mexico: In the past decade, Army, Navy and Air Force are 92-59 ATS as underdogs in the first half spread when facing non-service academy teams. Air Force has already covered in this spot against Baylor a few weeks ago. We’ve made this bet a few other times this year as well.

Ohio State at Oregon (1H under 26.5): Sources close the Buckeyes, and Joel Klatt, believe that tOSU will want to establish the run early on in this game. No stats. I just like the logic. I also REALLY wanna take Oregon +3 but I’m just not sure yet. I will probably take a side in this game but it’ll be a late add.

Ole Miss at LSU +3.5: You should actually not take this pick. I regret it. Against my best judgement, I tailed the SEC Insider again and his/her/their Mouth Watering Pick of the Week. They got bad info. Ole Miss will most likely have their top WR back. I should not have taken this this early in the week. Please advise.

Vanderbilt at Kentucky -13.5 AND under 44.5: Vanderbilt are not Texas A&M from the Manziel years. I love the Pavia story (great one in The Athletic this week), but I sense a letdown here. Since 2021, Vanderbilt are just 2-9 ATS after a win. In that same time, Kentucky are 15-9-1 ATS in the game following a win. Since 2021, in SEC games, Vanderbilt hit the under at a 54% clip while Kentucky games hit the under in conference games at a 63% clip. I feel better about the under than the spread.

SEC Insider picks of the weekend (2-4 last week / 9-16 in 2024, 42-41-2 overall):

*the following is verbatim*

Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (2-4 in 2024, 13-8 overall): LSU +3.5 vs Ole Miss – I think LSU may win outright. Ole Miss is massively overrated imo. No Trae Harris at WR for Ole Miss (*Editor’s note: Harris is probable to play, as of Friday night). Tiger Stadium at night getting 3.5? Sign me up.

Florida +15 at Tennessee –
Huge rivalry game here and know everyone is going to give Tennessee their best shot. I see this one being close. Can you believe Nico ran out of bounds on 4th down last week? Fraud alert

*Editor’s note: The following is a text message exchange between myself (Griff) and the SEC Insider (could be anyone).

SEC Insider: Please get rid of the Oklahoma game. New injury info just came to light. Replace it with South Carolina +21
Griff: What’s the mainstream bias saying? What did I just tell you about?
SEC Insider: Oklahoma is cooked at WR. I thought their top guy was gonna play
Griff: Whats your gut telling you to do? Dig deep
SEC Insider: Throw that game in the trash
Griff: Ok

South Carolina +21 vs Alabama

Oklahoma +14.5 vs Texas –
See above, major rivalry where anything can happen. Expecting a dawg fight. 2 huge weeks in a row for Texas. Think Texas could go a little vanilla and try to burn clock if they are up. Could be a back door situation if that happens.

Pitt -3.5 vs Cal –
Cal getting over an emotional loss to Miami and having to travel across country? No chance

tOSU -3 at Oregon –
Have you ever seen a better collection of players on a roster in college football? I think OSU matches up well. Can kill you on the ground or in the air. I’m out on Gabriel. I’m not reading too much into the time zone stats for this situation.

Prem League Advisor pick of the weekend (4-1 in 2024, 6-1 overall):

Prem League is on a bye week.

*Editor’s note: Pochettino is getting the fellas ready for action tonight against Panama. Folks are saying it’s a more anticipated debut than Arch Manning in the burnt orange. 9pm EST. TNT. I’ll take USMNT money line and Pulisic to score a goal at whatever his odds are.

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CFB Week 6, 2024

griffinweinberg20

We’re still winning.

We tip-toed that line last week (7-6-1), but winning is winning. However, some of the games we lost we’re pretty bad losses, so I need to clean that up and will address it below. But last week was significant for the blog for a few reasons.

The SEC Insider got back on track with a winning week, going 3-2. That’s a great sign because I think this individual got back to (mostly) picking games on their own without the help from other anonymous sources.

Because of this development, I’ve decided to tail (almost) all of the Insider’s picks this week and stray from mockery and verbal humiliation in this blog, a-la Will Ferrell dissing his dog. Good vibes from here on out.

On the other hand, the Prem League Advisor finally felt the hand of defeat, suffering their first loss in six picks. A -121 parlay couldn’t get the job done so the Advisor is going back to the drawing board, making another parlay, but this time including a team that is pretty much guaranteed to win. This parlay can’t lose two weeks in a row, can it? No chance. I’m all over it, and you should be too. The Advisor has promised to be better and I believe they will be. When promises are made in this blog, they are delivered.

Before we look back at last week, last night I went 1-1, taking the trendy Syracuse to cover against UNLV (they won in overtime) and Oregon -23 vs Michigan State. Fuck Jonathan Smith (Mich St coach) for kicking a field goal down 24 with less than a minute left. He came from Oregon State so there has to be some bad blood there and he no doubt knew what the spread was and wanted to piss off everyone who took Oregon to cover. Mission accomplished. That’s gonna be bad luck for MSU the rest of the year. I’m putting a hex on the Spartans. Christ almighty.

Alright.

Where Griff was WRONG:

Oklahoma State (+5.5) at Kansas Sate: They lost 42-20 and never had a chance. Mike Gundy did in fact let his team look bad two weeks in a row. Just an awful pick from me.

South Alabama (+20.5) at LSU: I took this solely because the SEC Insider had the other side and I wanted to fade this person. LSU won 42-10. I was being too much of a hater and I cannot do that anymore. In my Eugenio Suarez voice: “Good vize only boys!”

Where Griff was RIGHT:

Indiana (-7) vs Maryland: Hoosiers won 42-28. I was never worried about this. It was the Toretto and it delivered. IU might be a football school. You’ll be shocked to see what the Toretto is this week.

Clemson (-22.5) vs Stanford: I tailed the SEC Insider on this pick last week, despite hating on everything else they liked, and it paid off. Clemson rolled 40-14. Outside of the opening loss to Georgia, they have looked like the Clemson of old. Pretty sure they are plus money to make the CFP as well.

Ohio State (-23.5) vs Michigan State: Fuck Jonathan Smith. I gave you all the numbers that showed why tOSU was going to cover this number and they did, 38-7. They did not hit the over though (over 47.5). I got more numbers for the Buckeyes this week.

Alright. Happy Saturday. Let’s get to the picks.

CFB (7-6-1 last week / 40-26-1 in 2024 / 179-161-3 since 2022):

Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (4-1 in 2024, 13-7-1 overall): Indiana (TT o27.5) at Northwestern: Taking this specific pick from my friend’s at Bite Sized Bison. I don’t hate the spread either (IU -13.5), but I feel better that Indiana can score four touchdowns. They’ve hit that number each game this season.

Friday: Syracuse +6.5 at UNLV (Covered)

Friday: Michigan State at Oregon -23 (Fuck you, Jonathan Smith)

Army -13 at Tulsa: A lot goes into this pick, but two things are key: former IU coach Kevin Wilson leads Tulsa, so I’m fading them because right now, IU is ridding itself of the past and forging into the future. I’m doing the same. Also, Tulsa are not very good (2-3 overall and ATS). Army are 4-0, have covered all four games and may have the best offense in football. They have a +103 point differential. I love this.

Louisville -6.5 vs SMU: Dipping my toes back into the well until they become too crinkly. UofL gave us a miracle push last week with a late score to lose by seven. Really, Louisville has had three straight games where they needed something miraculous to happen in the fourth quarter to either cover or push. But it keeps happening. As for SMU, they killed Florida State last week (who gives a shit), crushed TCU 66-42 a couple weeks ago (TCU just lost to a now 2-3 Houston team last night) but did lose by three to a good BYU team before that. I’ve been on Louisville all year. I’ll keep falling into that well like a young Bruce Wayne (Batman Begins).

Boston College +1.5 at Virginia: This is strictly because Thomas Castellanos is back for BC and I can get them at plus money. I don’t know shit about Virginia football. Looks like they lost by 14 to Maryland, who Indiana beat pretty easily last week. If there is any pick to fade this week, it’s this one.

Iowa at Ohio State -18: I want to believe that tOSU is the best team in the country. There is no “demure” with this team. Always feels like they should be the top dawg even though Ryan Day was born on third base. So I’m gonna keep betting them like it. Since Day took over in 2019, OSU are 13-5-1 ATS at home in B1G games, favored in each one. In such games with lines between 10 and 20 points, they are 6-2 ATS. They’ve covered four (4) straight games, last on 10/7/23 vs Maryland (-17, W 37-17). I just want to believe.

Ole Miss -8.5 at South Carolina: Tailing the SEC Insider.

Alabama -22.5 at Vanderbilt: Tailing the SEC Insider.

Utah State at Boise State -27: I really just wanna bet on a Boise State game and this feels like the right time to do so. Ashton Jeanty is playing like a prime Cody Paul and Utah State gives up too many points (36 ppg). Boise averages 48 ppg. Set it and forget it.

Clemson -14.5 at Florida State: I asked a source about Florida State possibly playing better with out DJ You-Ain’t-Got-No-Alibi. Their response: “You watch that Glenn kid play the Orange bowl last year? He stinks too.”

Tennessee -13.5 AND 1H -7.5 at Arkansas: The spread is courtesy of the SEC Insider’s MWP. In six years as a head coach at UCF and Tennessee, Josh Heupel’s teams are 44-17-2 ATS in the first half – the most profitable ATS of 305 head coaches. That includes a record of 23-7-1 1H ATS away from home. Tennessee covered the 1H spread in week one vs Chattanooga (-24.5, leading 45-0), week two vs NC State (-4.5, leading 20-3), week 3 vs Kent State (-31.5, leading 65-0) and week 4 vs Oklahoma (-3.5, leading 19-3). Just follow the numbers.

Miami (FL) at California +10: Mainstream Bias pick of the week (2-2 in 2024)

Texas Tech +6.5 at Arizona: Texas Tech is playing much better recently with three straight wins, but this is more about Arizona. The Wildcats have been over-hyped all season, mainly because their QB and T-MAC (at WR) have been playing together since peewee. They were a trendy pick to upset Kansas State a couple weeks ago and got blown out and they beat Utah last week without Cam Rising. It’s easy to look at this game and think Arizona -6.5 is an easy play, but I just think Texas Tech is coming into form and will keep it close.

SEC Insider picks of the weekend (3-2 last week / 7-12 in 2024, 40-37-2 overall):

*the following is verbatim*

Let’s be honest – Nobody wants to hear my commentary after the poor start to the season. They just want results. Winning week last week (3-2), I feel the tide turning.

Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (2-3 in 2024, 13-7 overall): Tennessee -13.5 at Arkansas

Rutgers at Nebraska (over 40.5)

Louisville -6.5 vs SMU

Clemson -14.5 at Florida State

Bama -22.5 at Vanderbilt

Ole Miss -8.5 at South Carolina

Prem League Advisor pick of the weekend (3-1 in 2024, 5-1 overall):

*the following is verbatim*

Nothing else needs to be said. God bless.

Arsenal ML + West Ham ML +118