Category: Blog

Joe Burrow just gets hurt too much and the Bengals need a legitimate backup.

Joey injury history:

2017: broken bone in throwing hand

2020: brought COVID to the NFL then tore his ACL/MCL/structural damage/was run into by video assistant on bus ride to airport

2021: too scared to play in preseason

2022: offseason appendectomy (what even is that?)

2023: strained calf/tore ligament in wrist

2024: couldn’t even dap up Devin Booker or Bradley Beal

Taulia injury history:

2022: only missed one game despite being carted off the field after injuring his MCL

You tell me which list looks better.

Taulia is the B1Gs all-time leader in passing yards and completion percentage, basically in three seasons as a starter. Joe Burrow is not the SECs all-time leader in anything, however, he does have the NFL record for most times sacked in a single postseason.

Per an MSESPNBC study, NFL quarterbacks born in Ohio have the second lowest QB rating vs. expectation at -183.2. QBs born in Alabama, where Tagavailoa is from, are not in the top ten.

There’s still a chance Burrow could suck and there’s less of a chance that Tagavailoa will suck. Also, you can probably get Taulia in the 6th or 7th round so who cares about using a late pick on him. He could end up being the best quarterback of all-time.

I almost didn’t do it.

Could you imagine that? Picture me not writing this blog after the year we had in 2022. Rookie of the Year and he was top five in MVP voting. We finished 107-96 (53% after rounding up). But I almost didn’t do it. I just haven’t had the motivation. I didn’t bet Week 0, didn’t bet this (Thursday) evening’s games and haven’t looked at a single line (at this exact moment) for Saturday’s games. I must give credit to the (anonymous) SEC Insider for powering me with the strength to look deep into my soul to discover my true self. The pompous mechanism that is corporate America has made its way to rural Missouri and crawled its way into my brain like that disease in Barry Levinson’s “The Bay” (I know, you don’t know what this is). I promised not to complain about my job, so…

Recently, I haven’t felt 100%. Not sleeping great, feeling stuffed up, caught in the endless cycle of a typical 9-5 complacent but it’s more like 8-6 or 7 (again, not complaining). And ya know what? I (allegedly) have not placed a wager in almost two weeks. I knew something was wrong. I just couldn’t pinpoint the issue. So I just took a pause in writing this to look at the board and I’ve made two bets that I love. Last year, I read too much into the bias, promised to be better, and got us back on track. And we finished over fifty-percent (53% after rounding up). So why can’t we do that again? What’s stopping us? Nothing’s Gonna Stop Us Now (by Starship).

This is the best of the five seasons. There is no better feeling than waking up on Saturday morning, tossing an EPL bet (Brentford) and staring at the college football board like Smalls glaring at Wendy Peffercorn (you do know what that is). Kim Carnes just came on the bluetooth, so that means it’s time to get to the picks. I’m tailing all of the SEC Insider(could literally be anyone)’s picks.

CFB (107-96-1 in 2022):

Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (6-5-1): ECU (+36) vs Michigan – I do not know a single thing about this game outside of the fact that Harbaugh is suspended. What I think is there is no incentive for Michigan to blow out the Pirates and whoever the interim coach is has one job: just don’t lose this game. That’s it. I don’t think this random interim coach is gonna take too many risks because, if this person did and it failed, this person’s head would be on a stake. I think ECU sees this as an opportunity to steal a game without Harbaugh on the sidelines, but they will get blown out, it just won’t be by 36 points.

Miami (OH) at Miami (-17) – I’ve spent time on the campus in Oxford, Ohio. The dude who said (paraphrasing) “we’re the real Miami” is a liar. Love and Honor.

Viriginia at Tennesse (-28)

West Virginia at Penn State (-20.5)

North Carolina at South Carolina (+2.5) – there was also some bias that said Drake Maye won’t be good enough to save UNC’s defensive efficiencies

Coastal Carolina (+14.5) at UCLA

Ohio State (-30) at Indiana – I’ve been reading some deep analysis on the IU football team this year (Bite-Sized Bison by Taylor Lehman) and I am zero confident in the Hoosiers until Week 3.

Fresno State at Purdue (-3.5) – I know Brohm bolted but I think this line is an overreaction. Shout to Festus High School grad Arhmad Branch.

Buffalo at Wisconsin (-28) – Fickell is a good coach with big time recruits. And Buffalo is on the naughty list.

UMASS at Auburn (-35) – There is so much hype for UMASS right now. They beat New Mexico State last week. Let’s calm the hell down. Hugh Freeze got his way back to the SEC by being a good coach, not a good recruiter.

Nevada at Texas (-35) – Texas needs to make a statement and build more hype for this game in Tuscaloosa next week.

Northwestern at Rutgers (-6.5) – Took this from listening to Barstool Pick Em.

LSU (-2.5) at Florida State – also from Pick Em. I like the Brian Kelly revenge plot.

SEC Insider picks of the weekend (22-19-1 in 2022):

Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (8-4): “No mouth watering pick this week.
I need to see some teams play before I let my mouth water”

*the following is verbatim*

Tennessee -28
Showtime vols have a hot start. Hype train will be out of control in the hills of Tennessee. I think VA stinks and it will show. I’ve read Joe Milton can throw an orange 120 yards?!

Penn state -20.5
Another hype train set up for a hot start. Think the nittany lions could challenge for the big 10 title. Talent talent talent. Neal Brown is a sitting duck. Franklin looks to put it on em in week 1

Gamecocks -2.5
Strong close to 2022 for the gamecocks. Have to side with the SEC in matchups like these. I can picture Beamer taking a Mayo dump to the face. The content king will strike again.

Coastal Carolina +14.5
Won’t burn my source but I have on good authority that the Chanticleers win this out right. Lots of MAC players on this UCLA roster. The post DTR era should be interesting. Will be qb by committee situation. If you have 3 QBs do you even have 1? Grayson McCall is still in college apparently…

We’re staying afloat. Solid week last week but we want more winners than losers. It’s a simple concept. I like a lot of overs this week and it makes me nervous but there’s also a part of that that makes me feel good. I’m confused. Let’s get to the picks.

CFB (7-7 last week, 83-60-1 overall):

Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (5-4-1): Liberty at UCONN (+14.5) – bought the half. Liberty is good, but not that much gooder than UCONN. Huskies have covered six straight. Yeah Liberty went into WPS land last week and beat Arkansas, but was it that big of a shocker? Hugh Freeze had his guys prepped for that game and Arkansas are looking like frauds. Now it’s two former P5 coaches going against each other with their startup schools? Jim Mora will keep this close. – WIN

Tuesday: Ball State at Toledo (over 52.5) – LOSS

Wednesday: Buffalo at Central Michigan (-1.5) – WIN

Thursday: Tulsa at Memphis (-6.5) – WIN

Thursday: Georgia Southern (+3.5) at Louisiana Lafayette – LOSS

Indiana at Ohio State (over 57.5) – bought the half. The only concern here is if IU can hold up their end of the bargain because I think OSU will get at least 40 with ease – WIN

LSU at Arkansas (under 62.5) – it’s gonna be cold and windy in Fayetteville. Lot’s of the mainstream media think Arkansas might even win this game and, if they do, in my humble opinion, just my thoughts, I think they win in a low scoring game. WPS. – WIN

Temple at Houston (over 56.5) – Houston will get at least 30, probably a few more. I think their defense is bad enough to give Temple at least three touchdowns (Temple scored 54 last week but has only gotten more than 20 four times). This is a real gamble. – WIN

Maryland at Penn State (-10.5) – mainstream bias pick of the week – WIN

North Texas (+6) at UAB – another mainstream bias pick that many are saying could be an outright winner. Three straight wins and six straight covers for UNT, while UAB has lost three straight and has failed to cover in four straight. Could be a trap. But I’m in. – LOSS

Kansas State at Baylor (-2.5) – see below – LOSS

Georgia (-16.5) at Mississippi State – see below – WIN

TCU at Texas (over 64.5) – bought the half. The Insider (still don’t know) is on the road dog, but I like the over (assuming Ewers doesn’t get hurt). TCU has at least 34 in each game. The only times Texas hasn’t hit that number were against Bama (Ewers hurt) and Iowa State. Sonny Dykes isn’t a defensive coach. – LOSS

North Carolina at Wake Forest (over 77) – why the hell not? – LOSS

8-6 this week (overall: 91-66-1; Toretto’s picks: 6-4-1)

SEC Insider picks of the weekend (2-2 last week, 18-16-1 overall):

Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (8-2): Kansas State at Baylor (-2.5) – “Baylor has bounced back since the loss to WVU. Love the way Aranda has the boys playing.” – LOSS

Alabama at Ole Miss (+12) – “Lane Kiffin wants nothing more than to beat little Nick. The Tide have nothing to play for. The Rebs have everything to play for. Can you imagine the content Lane will pump if he beats Saban? The wheels are falling off in TTown. Don’t be surprised if the Rebs make their way to ATL for the SEC title..” – WIN

Georgia (-16.5) at Mississippi State – “You hear those cowbells? Dawgs have an opportunity to clinch an SEC East Title this weekend. The master motivator has this team rolling. Hangover spot? Take about 10 CBD drops, eat 4 Advil, chug a water… good to go.” – WIN

TCU (+7) at Texas – “#4 team in the country getting no respect? 7 point dogs? Can TCU knock another QB out of the game? Unprecedented stuff there. Something smells here.” – WIN

3-1 this week (overall: 21-17-1; mouthwatering picks: 8-3)

NFL (3-3-1 last week, 42-40-2 overall):

DEN at TEN (under 40) – WIN

NO at PIT (-1) – WIN

MIN (TT o19.5) at BUF – WIN

JAX (+9.5) at KC – LOSS

ARI at LAR (-3) – LOSS

DAL at GB (+3.5) – WIN

LAC at SF (under 45.5) – WIN

WAS at PHI (-7 1H) – LOSS

5-3 (47-43 overall)

We are still winning, folks. Last week we evened out a bit after that insane run of 29-9-1, but 9-7 in CFB is in the green and 6-6 in NFL, we’ll have ya. The SEC Insider (your guess is as good as mine) is back on track and the mouthwatering picks are hitting at such a clip that I’m going to drown if I keep winning off of em.

This week, we’re doing something special with the blog/article/post/you-name-it. All of our winnings this week are going to Caps For A Cause, a nonprofit organization committed to increasing skin cancer awareness. It was founded by a friend of mine, Bryce (Bruce) Demoret, “a soon to be doctor” (sick brag) that shares everyone on this planet’s affinity of absolutely hating cancer. A charitable organization that is close to me is N.I.C.K.’s Camp (Nothing’s Impossible for Cancer Kids), created by friends of my father and it’s been rolling on for maybe 30 years now. Pretty much everyone has a reason to believe in “FUCK CANCER”. So let’s beat that motherfucker named “cancer” into the ground and win every bet this weekend (excluding the Thursday night pick that lost) to support Caps For A Cause (or whichever cause you may support).

Let’s get to the picks.

CFB (9-7 last week, 76-53-1 overall):

Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (4-4-1): Texas Tech at TCU (-9) – I thought about the over (70.5) but I’m nervous about TTU holding up their end of the bargain. They got their ass kicked by Baylor last week (17 points, five INTs by three QBs). TCU can still play their way into the CFP. I feel good about this number. – WIN

Dooger Dem’s “Fuck Cancer” Game Of His Life: Michigan (-25) at Rutgers (Editor’s note: I’m adding this to my card, obviously) – WIN

(Thursday) Western Michigan at Bowling Green (-4.5) – bought the half. This opened at -1 but I still like it. Why? Because I think Western Michigan is just bad and they’re gonna have trouble scoring (16 points or less in 5 of 8 games while BGSU has scored less than 16 just twice this season). It’s a toss up. I want action on it. – LOSS

(Friday) Oregon State (+4.5) at Washington – Washington has been favored in every game this season (6-2 overall). They covered their first four games. They did not cover their last four games. I’m betting against Washington. – WIN

Air Force at Army (under 40.5) – idk what the stat is on the under in service academy games but it says to take the under, so I am. (Editor’s note: an article from the mainstream media on 12/9/21 has the under at 40-9-1 since 2005 in such games) – WIN

Kentucky at Mizzou (PK) – riding the Insider (see below) – LOSS

Maryland (+4.5) at Wisconsin – Maryland (6-2) has been an underdog once this season: +17 on the road at Michigan and they covered. Both teams coming off a bye last week. Wisconsin (4-4) beat Purdue two weeks ago. Wisconsin has not won two in a row this season. Maryland coach Mike Locksley is talking about what they can accomplish this season still. Wisconsin interim coach Jim Leonhard is talking about wanting to get the head coach job full-time (translation: he’s looking ahead to next year). – LOSS

Baylor (+3.5) at Oklahoma – there’s some mainstream bias involved with this pick. But also, Dave Aranda tried recruiting Brent Venables’ son to LSU when the former was coaching there but the young Venables chose Clemson instead. Grudge match? – WIN

Middle Tennessee State at Louisiana Tech (+2.5) – just three home games for Tech this season (they’ve covered all three). MTSU has been up and down all year (4-4). Tech has an extra day of rest after playing last Friday. – WIN

Oklahoma State at Kansas (over 64.5) – Kansas’ season is done but they’re still scoring (and giving up) a lot of points (scored at least 23 and given up at least 35 during three-game losing streak). IDK what happened to OK State last week but I don’t think they gut shutout again. I think this number is kinda low. – LOSS

UCF at Memphis (+3.5) – Memphis off a bye. In four home games this year they have three wins and a one point loss to Houston. UCF has only played on the road twice (win vs FAU and 21 point loss at ECU on 10/22). Home field matters in college. And UCF doesn’t know who their QB is yet. – LOSS

 Texas (-2.5) at Kansas State – riding the Insider (see below) – WIN

Auburn at Mississippi State (-12.5) – riding the Insider (see below) – LOSS

Hawaii (+27.5) at Fresno State – a little bias in this pick but a little too many points here that Fresno is laying. The Bulldogs (4-4) have (1) win this season by that much: vs the 2-6 New Mexico Lobos two weeks ago. Hawaii is bad, but their last three road games (all losses) have been within 27.5 (they got killed at Michigan early in the season). This is the Teremana game of the Week. – LOSS

**7-7 this week (83-60-1 overall, Toretto’s picks are 5-4-1)**

SEC Insider picks of the weekend (3-1 last week, 16-14-1 overall):

*A note from the (anonymous) Insider: “The SEC Insider stands with the Jewish community and condemns all anti-semitism.”

Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (7-2): Texas (-2.5) at Kansas State – “Texas coming off that bye in a bounce back spot after dropping one to OK state. QB controversy in the Little Apple? Gimme the Horns.” – WIN

Kentucky at Mizzou (PK) – “As stated previously, UK (sic) is frauds. Going back to the well. (sic) Mizzous front gave Georgia fits a few weeks back and UKs OL is weak. Not a good recipe for the cats.” – LOSS

Tennessee at Georgia (-8) – “Something smells with this Georgia game. I don’t know what it is I smell but I can certainly smell something. Assume that means I do not have covid.” – WIN

Auburn at Mississippi State (-12.5) – “Total chaos on the plains with the Aubs. Interim Head Coach Cadillac Williams May let Tank carry it 50 times. Wouldn’t be surprised if the only play calls he installed are probably HB sweep and HB dive.” – LOSS

**2-2 this week (18-16-1 overall, mouthwatering picks are 8-2)**

NFL (6-6 last week, 39-37-1 overall):

MIA at CHI (under 46) – LOSS

MIN at WAS (+3) – PUSH

GB at DET (TT over 23) – LOSS

BUF at NYJ (under 46) – WIN

LAC (-2.5) at ATL – WIN

LAR at TB (under 42.5) – WIN

Monday night: BAL at NO (over 46.5)

Caps For A Cause