Blog

Quick write-up. I’ll have boots on the ground for the UK-UGA game tomorrow so no time to write in the morning.

Went 6-7 last week (I added Arkansas live +6.5) with some bad screw jobs in the early slate. The Toretto hit for the second week in a row. The mainstream bias has me on a game tonight (Friday). Prem League is back this weekend which means a pick from the Advisor, who had boots on the ground in Europe last week.

Let’s get to the picks.

CFB (6-7 last week / 15-10 in 2024 / 154-145-2 since 2022):

Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (2-0 in 2024, 11-6-1 overall): North Texas +10 at Texas Tech: Tech held off Abilene Christian (?) 52-51 in overtime in week one then fell at Washington State, 37-16, last week. North Texas is 2-0 with wins at South Alabama (they scored 87 points Thursday night), 52-38, and a 15 pt home win vs who gives a shit. The over (69.5) makes sense here but 10 points vs the 129th ranked passing defense, while the UNT QB has 737 passing yards in two games, is too enticing.

UNLV +9.5 at Kansas (Friday): Mainstream Bias Pick of the Week (0-2 in 2024)

Missouri -14.5 vs Boston College: I just think Mizzou is head and shoulders better than BC and SEC owns ACC (see last week’s Tennessee pick and disregard the Auburn pick). BC has wins at Florida State (we know they suck now) and 56-0 vs Duquesso. Cool. Mizzou Coach Drink is trying to run up the score on their opponents to prove that his team belongs in the SEC title conversation. They’ve outscored G5 teams 89-0. Also cool. Drink needs to win big vs a P4 team to prove his theory. I’m gonna back him to do just that.

Oregon -16.5 at Oregon State: This is weird, right? Watching Barstool Pick Em this week helped set my brain straight on this. No reason for Oregon to be favored by this much at OSU. So I’m taking Oregon.

Texas A&M at Florida (under 47): Florida replaced Mertz at QB with a freshman, who played well against Samford, but will have to deal with a real defense this week and is probably pooping his pants. Notre Dame’s offense may not be that great, but A&M still looked good on D in that week one game. They beat McNeese St last week, 52-10, but I just think game one of SEC play will bring out the best of the defenses in this one.

Georgia State +10.5 vs Vanderbilt: Kinda like the Oregon-OSU game, this should be an easy bet on Vandy. But I think Georgia State has em in a good spot. Vandy will win, but the Panthers keep it close. Maybe a trap game for Vandy cause they’re at Mizzou next week and they’re riding high with two wins so they think they’ll have an easy win here vs 1-1 Georgia State and they’ll get too hyped up about that Mizzou game and won’t think too much of this game. I’m in my own head with this one. Definitely fade it.

Georgia -22 at Kentucky: Trailing the SEC Insider.

Air Force (1H +9.5) at Baylor: “In the past decade, Army, Navy and Air Force are 90-59 ATS as underdogs in the first half spread” when facing non-service academy teams. I’m not sure how much life Dave Arranda has left in him. Facing the option doesn’t help. Also, AF beat Baylor in a bowl game in 2022 by 15 points as a 3.5 point underdog, if that matters.

Indiana -3 at UCLA: Just like Donald J. Trump on Tuesday night, I’m taking the bait, because I just can’t resist it. Hoosiers favored at the Rose Bowl in primetime on Saturday night. You kidding me? I would ABSOLUTELY avoid taking this bet if I were you but I just can’t pass on it. But a stat for ya, IU has covered three straight ATS on the road going back to last season.

Colorado State +7 vs Colorado: Give me one reason why you’d wanna take Colorado in this game and I’ll tell you that’s a bad reason. Colorado has never been able to back up their talk. Rado St made this a huge game last year. It’s gonna be a huge game Saturday night. Rams QB Brayden Fowler-Nicolsi said, “…we’ll see how far Instagram followers gets them.” Colorado State wants the smoke. I want the Rams.

Tennessee (1H -31.5) vs Kent State: In six years as a head coach at UCF and Tennessee, Josh Heupel’s teams are “42-17-2 ATS in the first half – the most profitable ATS of 305 head coaches.” Tennessee covered the 1H spread in week one vs Chattanooga (-24.5, leading 45-0) and week two vs NC State (-4.5, leading 20-3). Just follow the numbers.

SEC Insider picks of the weekend (1-2 last week / 3-3 in 2024, 36-28-2 overall):

*the following is verbatim*

I want to preface this by saying that I didn’t like much of anything I saw on the board this week. But we are here to give picks so that’s what I am going to do.

Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (1-1 in 2024, 12-5 overall): Georgia -22 at UK

I think Stoops has quit on this team. He sounds defeated and wishes he was in College Station. I think Brock Vandagriff knows what’s on the other side of the ball and will be looking to tuck all game. Beck spreads it around and good D from the Dawgs. Will the fans show? Plenty of cheap tix online!

Oklahoma v Tulsa 1st half U 23.5
Was given this pick. I think OK D is pretty good and their offense kind of stinks.

Colorado State +7 (ML)
Revenge for the Rams. Shilo, the heart and soul of the team, is out. (You like those commas Griff?) (*Editor’s note: I do.) I’m going ML. This could be a pure hate play by me but this is where I am going.

Prem League Advisor pick of the weekend (1-0 in 2024, 3-0 overall): Man City + Man U ML parlay +100: Had drinks with a couple from Manchester the other night. World class banter. Did not ask who they supported. We will take both teams just in case in honor of Rory and Ella.

INTEGRITY.

in·teg·ri·ty

noun

Definition: the quality of being honest and having strong moral principles; moral uprightness. (“he is known to be a man of integrity”)

Origin: late Middle English; from French intégrité or Latin integritas, from integer, meaning ‘whole’ or ‘complete’.

————————————————————–

Integrity says everything about a man/woman/other.

I don’t understand how someone can go about their lives without having any. One who doesn’t have any integrity knows they don’t have integrity, or knows they are lacking integrity in a certain moment, yet they choose to go about their lives either not caring about the fact that they are deprived of integrity or that other people won’t recognize their absence of integrity.

We can see it.

It’s like when you’re golfing and one of your playing partners’ tee shots goes into the woods then they’re looking for their ball, alone, and suddenly they find it. Or, when one of your playing partners doesn’t feel like looking for their own tee shot so they quickly drive to the next ball nearest where their tee shot most-likely landed and put a leaf over the ball, shielding the logo and number, and try to hit it before you can can get there and utter the words, “I’m pretty sure that’s my ball.”

It was.

It’s like Judge Lance Ito ruling that OJ Simpson (R.I.P?) didn’t do it.

But we know.

Or Vegas voiding all tickets for the Kentucky (-26.5)/Southern Miss game last week because it was called in the third quarter due to inclement weather even though the Cats were up 31-0 at the time of cancellation and UK still were awarded the victory but you see gamblers counting that game on their records despite the fact that it was a void, not a push, but a void, and thus shouldn’t be counted on their records.

I’m not one of those gamblers.

I could say that I went 8-3 with my picks last week, but I’m an integrious person. I only went 7-3. I officially went 5-3 on my picks last Saturday, but I added USC +4 vs LSU Sunday night and Boston College +17.5 vs Florida State on Monday (I forgot to place my bet before the game started so I bet the game right after opening kickoff, which is why I got 17.5).

INTEGRITY. (*reminder, I have a low-paying job. $10 is one unit for me)

In my last post you all took my word that, in Week Zero, I bet Georgia Tech +10.5 vs FSU and North Dakota State +9.5 vs Colorado. And you accepted it like the God-fearing men/women/other most of you probably are.

INTEGRITY.

But even God loses some battles. I’m also 1-1 on the NFL through two games.

INTEGRITY.

We should all strive, not just for greatness, but to live with integrity. I won’t post my (very small) bet slips in the blog each week, but I’m happy to provide proof if anyone cares enough to ask.

Now, let’s get to the picks.

CFB (9-3 in 2024 / 148-138-2 since 2022):

Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (1-0 in 2024, 10-6-1 overall): Nicholls State at LSU (over 58.5): In 2022, LSU lost the opener to Florida State then won 65-17 vs a non-major in week two. In 2023, LSU lost to Florida State then beat a non-major 72-10 in week two. In 2024, LSU lost the opener to USC then played a non-major in week two…

Michigan +7 vs Texas: I just can’t pass up on taking the reigning champs as a home dog getting a touchdown. I like the under too, but after reading a great story about Michigan QB Davis Warren beating cancer in The Athletic this week, I’m on the Wolverines.

Cincinnati -2 vs Pitt: Just a gut feeling. Sorsby was slinging it for UC last week (vs Towson) and the Cats are getting back their best defensive player, DT Dontay Corleone.

Tennessee Tech at Georgia (under 62.5): The over never hits in these Georgia games. Kirby doesn’t care about blowing these kinds of teams out.

Louisville -28.5 vs Jacksonville State: I think UofL is a top-15 team and they will show it against Jax St.

Kentucky -9.5 vs South Carolina: Redemption.

Auburn -13 vs Cal: I have no idea what a school like Cal-Berkley is doing in Auburn, Alabama on a Saturday afternoon in September. Also, the SEC Insider’s mouth is watering at this game, so I love it.

Alabama -31 vs South Florida: Until Alabama shows it’s not the same team that Nick Saban coached for all those years, I’ll continue to hammer them (responsibly) against far inferior opponents.

Ohio State -37.5 vs Western Michigan: I have no idea why this spread is so low. Seems too easy to pick.

Tennessee -8.5 vs NC State: As you’ll see below, SEC owns ACC. Nico is real. Neutral site. I’m not over-thinking this.

Clemson -16.5 vs Appalachian State: Tailing the Insider here.

Colorado at Nebraska (over 55.5): Mainstream bias pick of the week (0-1 in 2024)

SEC Insider picks of the weekend (2-1 in 2024, 33-25-2 overall):

*the following is verbatim*

Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (1-0 in 2024, 12-4 overall): Auburn -13 vs Cal-
Cal is going to be a bad football team this year. 31-13 over UC Davis last week while UC Davis threw 3 (sic) Ints. Lots of excitement from the Plains this (sic) off season. Too many athletes on (sic) Aub and think Freeze uses this as a spot to try to impress the rest of the country. SEC owns ACC…

Clemson -16.5 vs Appalachian State
I think Dabo finds a way to rally the troops. Players are saying the right things in the media. Coach not so much. This team isn’t as bad as the score showed last week.

Oregon -21 vs Boise State
Boise ain’t running silly on this front 7 like they did last week. 3 time zones in 6 days for Boise. Boise gave up 45 to GSU – no defense. I see Gabriel and cast putting points up after (sic) lasts week low output.

Hand up mea culpa – subscribers received a Sabalenka/Navarro U 8.5 games in Set 1. Need to be better. (INTEGRITY.)

Prem League Advisor pick of the weekend (1-0 in 2024, 3-0 overall):

Bye week for the Prem and for the Advisor innit. Games resume next Saturday.

I started tracking what I eat on a daily basis a few months ago.

I wasn’t overweight and I didn’t have any health issues that required me to do so, but they say abs are made in the kitchen, so I wanted to see what was holding me back. Also, one of the big reasons why I got my tattoo was to motivate me to get in/stay in shape. What I discovered is how much sodium I was consuming in a day (about 2-3x the recommended amount), all the carbs and fat in some of the processed shit I was eating (goodbye, pretzels) and how much snacking I was doing. I was lifting 5x a week and kept my cardio up, but that wasn’t enough to get me to look like Ryan Gosling in The Fall Guy (a not-great movie).

Since early April, I’ve dropped about 20-25 lbs. while doing 10 minutes of core every day. Getting my 10,000 steps in almost every day has helped with that, too. I’m looking better, but I’m not quite ready to quit my (low-paying) day job to start modeling for Calvin Klein like Kate McKinnon in that SNL skit mocking Justin Bieber. But we’re making progress. That’s all we can do every day. Make a little progress.

For the second year in a row, I wasn’t going to write this blog again to start the season. Last year it was because my at-the-time job was getting overwhelming and the only thing I wanted to do at the end of the day was take a five-finger pour of Teremana to the face. This year, I was just lacking motivation. I stopped writing last season after my dad died and I hadn’t felt the urge to start again. I’ve barely even been gambling over the last few months and haven’t cared to put in the research for football season either (why am I saying that like it’s a bad thing?).

But I got a text the other day. It was from the SEC Insider. Then, the Prem League Advisor chimed in. The chat was going. The blood was flowing. Wheels turning. The bottle of Teremana (Blanco) in my freezer was staring at me like the Green Goblin mask.

I left the bottle in its place……………for now.

But the blog goes on. It must.

There was little-to-no research done for my picks this week. It’s Week 1. I don’t think it makes sense to deep-dive into these games because everyone has been prepping for months for this one game. I just looked at the lines and chose what I thought was right. I’m 2-0 so far (GT +10.5 vs FSU and NDSU +9.5 vs “We Comin” University). Why can’t we go 9-0 today?

Glad to be back. Let’s get to the picks.

CFB (2-0 in 2024 / 32-39-1 in 2023 / 141-135-2 since 2022):

Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (3-1 in 2023, 9-6-1 overall): Miami (FL) -2.5 at Florida – This is more about Florida just being bad than trusting Miami to win. Three straight losing seasons for the Gators and they still have Billy Napier and Graham Mertz. Why do we think it’s going to all-of-a-sudden be better? Mario Cristobal blowing that one game last year when he could’ve taken a knee but decided to run it instead definitely makes me nervous about taking The U, but Florida is just not gonna be good.

Georgia -13.5 vs Clemson – The line keeps moving in favor of Clemson bettors. I don’t care. We know Georgia is competing for a national championship. We can’t say the same about Clemson.

West Virginia +7.5 vs Penn State – Purely picked because of the atmosphere in Morgantown. I’ll for sure take a touchdown (+.5) if you’ll give it to me.

Akron at Ohio State (under 57) – Akron should not score a single point. I don’t think OSU keeps running up the score that high.

Alabama -32 vs Western Kentucky – I have not seen a single negative report out of Alabama camp over the last couple months. Now, I’m not on the message boards, but nothing major from the mainstream media tells me all is well in Tuscaloosa. This should be business as usual for DeBoer’s first game. He needs to make a statement as well.

UNLV at Houston (over 55.5) – Mainstream bias pick of the week.

Notre Dame at Texas A&M (under 46) – Mike Elko knows how to defend Riley Leonard. He also needs to win to get the fanbase fully invested in him. ND lost Joe Alt and another starter this offseason and I think their O-line is young in general. I just don’t see a lot of offense here.

Fresno St. at Michigan (1H under 23.5) – Tailing the SEC Insider’s Mouth Watering Pick of the Week, which is 11-4 overall.

Kentucky -26.5 vs Southern Mississippi – I’ve seen the Cats in action multiple times on NCAA 25 and know what they’re capable of. They HAVE to hit this number.

SEC Insider picks of the weekend (9-5-1 in 2023, 31-24-2 overall):

Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (3-0 in 2023, 11-4 overall): Fresno St. at Michigan (1H under 23.5)

Georgia -13.5 vs Clemson

LSU -4 vs USC

Prem League Advisor pick of the weekend (2-0 in 2023, 2-0 overall):

Brentford (-135 ML) vs Southampton

On Monday, I changed.

For better? For worse? Whoms’t is to judge? I’ll leave it up to the mainstream media. But I’ve officially scarred my body with the most recognizable piece of IP (intellectual property, Jeff) and there’s no going back (pun intended). I’ve had this idea for probably eight or nine years but I never had the balls to pull the trigger on it. There was no alcohol, no drugs, no outside influences that pushed me to get this monumental addition that will forever live on me. It was all me.

That’s where I went wrong through these first few weeks of the CFB season. I went 10-12 last week and I’m 28-28 overall on the year. There’s nothing wrong with being .500, but it’s unacceptable in my eyes. I’ve been absolutely moosed making these picks every night that I’ve written this blog. Each Thursday night just knocking backing multiple fingers worth of Teremana or cheap bourbon from the DCB (Discount Cigarettes and Beer) right down the road and a mix of some extracurriculars to top it off. I gotta lock in. I gotta be me and make these picks on my own merit.

So I’ve gone back to what I know best: Basil Hayden. It fueled me on the Bengals run to the Super Bowl a couple years ago and it’s my true bread and butter. It’s time to lock in.

Of note, the (unidentified) SEC Insider is on a roll. 2-0 on the mouthwatering picks, 7-4 overall in 2023, and a winning record since 2022. The Jane/John Doe that is the Prem League Advisor had a successful debut, hitting on a parlay that made us all some Jane/John dough. My NFL picks continue to suck. I went 3-5 last week and I’m 9-12 on the season, but this blog isn’t about that.

We are going to win as a unit this week. We just have to.

Let’s get to the picks.

CFB (28-30 in 2023 / 135-126-1 since 2022):

Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (2-1 in 2023, 8-6-1 overall): Arkansas at LSU (over 54.5) – LSU is actually good. Just forget about the FSU game in week one. I think they can score 42 on their own so we’ll bet on Arkansas to cover the rest.

Georgia State at Coastal Carolina (-6.5 and over 62) – GAST has at least 35 points in each game and they’ve played shit competition, the only time Coastal hasn’t hit 30 was at UCLA week one. I’m back on the mic for HSFB Thursday night so these are blind, set-it-and-forget-it picks. – DOUBLE LOSS

Wisconsin at Purdue (under 53.5) – A Friday night B1G game feels like it has the makings to be a traditional, ugly B1G game.

NC State at Virginia (over 47.5) – UVA has given up 49, 36, and 42 points in three games. That is all.

Oklahoma at Cincinnati (+14.5) – I’ll buy low on the Cats. Bad loss to Love and Honor, but Emory Jones is good and has played in big games like this. If it was 13.5 I may have stayed away.

Boston College (+13.5) at Louisville – I watched most of the IU-UofL game last week and I do not believe in the Cards. Each of BC’s games have been decided by three points or less.

FSU at Clemson (+2.5) – I’m gonna bet all the big games on Saturday. Dabo is 11-4 ATS as an underdog against ranked opponents.

Colorado at Oregon (-21) – I feel bad doing this cause I rode the Buffs each of the first few weeks, but this feels like a game that Oregon should win easily. They’re the better team plain and simple.

Ole Miss (+7) at Alabama – That video of Saban walking off the field soaked in rain water left a bad taste in my mouth. (Editor’s note: this pick was made prior to my receiving of the Insider’s picks, so I am a tad worried about this)

UCLA at Utah (over 52.5) – 2:30 CDT kickoff tells me the defenses won’t be up for this game and I love Pac-12 overs.

BYU at Kansas (over 54.5) – Jayhawks have Jalon Daniels back and they look good. BYU has 41 and 38 points in their last two. This screams the over.

Oregon State (-3) at Washington State – Mainstream bias influenced this decision.

OSU at Notre Dame (+3) – Yeah. Just my gut feeling. Apologies to those offended seeing this. (Editor’s note: this pick was made prior to my receiving of the Insider’s picks, so I am a tad worried about this)

Memphis (+6.5) vs Mizzou in St. Louis – Mizzou may be good, but I don’t think they’re a sure bet. Neutral game and I’m sure Memphis will travel well enough.

Buffalo at UL Lafayette (-10) – Another pick with mainstream influence involved.

SEC Insider picks of the weekend (7-4 in 2023, 29-23-1 overall):

*The following is verbatim

Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (2-0 in 2023, 10-4 overall): Bama -7
We are at the point where Bama’s back is officially up against the wall. People calling into question if the Saban era is over. One more loss and that will be the case. Do we really think the Saban era dies at the hands of Joey Freshwater? This is a no brainer. I think the USF game was good for the Tide big picture and solidifies Milroe as the guy. Joyless murder ball

Buckeyes – 3
There is absolutely no home field advantage here. Expect plenty of scarlet to be in that stadium. Hartman is good with time but I’ve been told the silver bullets are back. Expect Sawyer/JT to bring some heat. Get the studs out wide involved and get out of south bend with a 7-10 point win.

LSU -17.5
LSU rolled last week on the road in impressive fashion. I think they’re the best team in the division and get a mediocre Arkansas team in Death Valley at night. Train keeps rolling.

Oregon Colorado under 70
70 points is a lot. I think Colorado comes back to earth with Travis being out. Dan Lanning makes somewhat of a statement here on D. Oregon front on D will bully that Buffs OLine. I haven’t heard much out of coach prime this week…wonder why? Writing is on the wall. Not willing to spank the line. But think Oregon wins somewhat comfortably.

Prem League Advisor pick of the weekend (1-0): “Manchester United to win -135. Fading another recent promote this week. United will be fired up after conceding 4 goals to Bayern in their Champions League loss on Wednesday. I think this one could get out of hand early”