Blog

We’re staying afloat. Solid week last week but we want more winners than losers. It’s a simple concept. I like a lot of overs this week and it makes me nervous but there’s also a part of that that makes me feel good. I’m confused. Let’s get to the picks.

CFB (7-7 last week, 83-60-1 overall):

Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (5-4-1): Liberty at UCONN (+14.5) – bought the half. Liberty is good, but not that much gooder than UCONN. Huskies have covered six straight. Yeah Liberty went into WPS land last week and beat Arkansas, but was it that big of a shocker? Hugh Freeze had his guys prepped for that game and Arkansas are looking like frauds. Now it’s two former P5 coaches going against each other with their startup schools? Jim Mora will keep this close. – WIN

Tuesday: Ball State at Toledo (over 52.5) – LOSS

Wednesday: Buffalo at Central Michigan (-1.5) – WIN

Thursday: Tulsa at Memphis (-6.5) – WIN

Thursday: Georgia Southern (+3.5) at Louisiana Lafayette – LOSS

Indiana at Ohio State (over 57.5) – bought the half. The only concern here is if IU can hold up their end of the bargain because I think OSU will get at least 40 with ease – WIN

LSU at Arkansas (under 62.5) – it’s gonna be cold and windy in Fayetteville. Lot’s of the mainstream media think Arkansas might even win this game and, if they do, in my humble opinion, just my thoughts, I think they win in a low scoring game. WPS. – WIN

Temple at Houston (over 56.5) – Houston will get at least 30, probably a few more. I think their defense is bad enough to give Temple at least three touchdowns (Temple scored 54 last week but has only gotten more than 20 four times). This is a real gamble. – WIN

Maryland at Penn State (-10.5) – mainstream bias pick of the week – WIN

North Texas (+6) at UAB – another mainstream bias pick that many are saying could be an outright winner. Three straight wins and six straight covers for UNT, while UAB has lost three straight and has failed to cover in four straight. Could be a trap. But I’m in. – LOSS

Kansas State at Baylor (-2.5) – see below – LOSS

Georgia (-16.5) at Mississippi State – see below – WIN

TCU at Texas (over 64.5) – bought the half. The Insider (still don’t know) is on the road dog, but I like the over (assuming Ewers doesn’t get hurt). TCU has at least 34 in each game. The only times Texas hasn’t hit that number were against Bama (Ewers hurt) and Iowa State. Sonny Dykes isn’t a defensive coach. – LOSS

North Carolina at Wake Forest (over 77) – why the hell not? – LOSS

8-6 this week (overall: 91-66-1; Toretto’s picks: 6-4-1)

SEC Insider picks of the weekend (2-2 last week, 18-16-1 overall):

Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (8-2): Kansas State at Baylor (-2.5) – “Baylor has bounced back since the loss to WVU. Love the way Aranda has the boys playing.” – LOSS

Alabama at Ole Miss (+12) – “Lane Kiffin wants nothing more than to beat little Nick. The Tide have nothing to play for. The Rebs have everything to play for. Can you imagine the content Lane will pump if he beats Saban? The wheels are falling off in TTown. Don’t be surprised if the Rebs make their way to ATL for the SEC title..” – WIN

Georgia (-16.5) at Mississippi State – “You hear those cowbells? Dawgs have an opportunity to clinch an SEC East Title this weekend. The master motivator has this team rolling. Hangover spot? Take about 10 CBD drops, eat 4 Advil, chug a water… good to go.” – WIN

TCU (+7) at Texas – “#4 team in the country getting no respect? 7 point dogs? Can TCU knock another QB out of the game? Unprecedented stuff there. Something smells here.” – WIN

3-1 this week (overall: 21-17-1; mouthwatering picks: 8-3)

NFL (3-3-1 last week, 42-40-2 overall):

DEN at TEN (under 40) – WIN

NO at PIT (-1) – WIN

MIN (TT o19.5) at BUF – WIN

JAX (+9.5) at KC – LOSS

ARI at LAR (-3) – LOSS

DAL at GB (+3.5) – WIN

LAC at SF (under 45.5) – WIN

WAS at PHI (-7 1H) – LOSS

5-3 (47-43 overall)

We are still winning, folks. Last week we evened out a bit after that insane run of 29-9-1, but 9-7 in CFB is in the green and 6-6 in NFL, we’ll have ya. The SEC Insider (your guess is as good as mine) is back on track and the mouthwatering picks are hitting at such a clip that I’m going to drown if I keep winning off of em.

This week, we’re doing something special with the blog/article/post/you-name-it. All of our winnings this week are going to Caps For A Cause, a nonprofit organization committed to increasing skin cancer awareness. It was founded by a friend of mine, Bryce (Bruce) Demoret, “a soon to be doctor” (sick brag) that shares everyone on this planet’s affinity of absolutely hating cancer. A charitable organization that is close to me is N.I.C.K.’s Camp (Nothing’s Impossible for Cancer Kids), created by friends of my father and it’s been rolling on for maybe 30 years now. Pretty much everyone has a reason to believe in “FUCK CANCER”. So let’s beat that motherfucker named “cancer” into the ground and win every bet this weekend (excluding the Thursday night pick that lost) to support Caps For A Cause (or whichever cause you may support).

Let’s get to the picks.

CFB (9-7 last week, 76-53-1 overall):

Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (4-4-1): Texas Tech at TCU (-9) – I thought about the over (70.5) but I’m nervous about TTU holding up their end of the bargain. They got their ass kicked by Baylor last week (17 points, five INTs by three QBs). TCU can still play their way into the CFP. I feel good about this number. – WIN

Dooger Dem’s “Fuck Cancer” Game Of His Life: Michigan (-25) at Rutgers (Editor’s note: I’m adding this to my card, obviously) – WIN

(Thursday) Western Michigan at Bowling Green (-4.5) – bought the half. This opened at -1 but I still like it. Why? Because I think Western Michigan is just bad and they’re gonna have trouble scoring (16 points or less in 5 of 8 games while BGSU has scored less than 16 just twice this season). It’s a toss up. I want action on it. – LOSS

(Friday) Oregon State (+4.5) at Washington – Washington has been favored in every game this season (6-2 overall). They covered their first four games. They did not cover their last four games. I’m betting against Washington. – WIN

Air Force at Army (under 40.5) – idk what the stat is on the under in service academy games but it says to take the under, so I am. (Editor’s note: an article from the mainstream media on 12/9/21 has the under at 40-9-1 since 2005 in such games) – WIN

Kentucky at Mizzou (PK) – riding the Insider (see below) – LOSS

Maryland (+4.5) at Wisconsin – Maryland (6-2) has been an underdog once this season: +17 on the road at Michigan and they covered. Both teams coming off a bye last week. Wisconsin (4-4) beat Purdue two weeks ago. Wisconsin has not won two in a row this season. Maryland coach Mike Locksley is talking about what they can accomplish this season still. Wisconsin interim coach Jim Leonhard is talking about wanting to get the head coach job full-time (translation: he’s looking ahead to next year). – LOSS

Baylor (+3.5) at Oklahoma – there’s some mainstream bias involved with this pick. But also, Dave Aranda tried recruiting Brent Venables’ son to LSU when the former was coaching there but the young Venables chose Clemson instead. Grudge match? – WIN

Middle Tennessee State at Louisiana Tech (+2.5) – just three home games for Tech this season (they’ve covered all three). MTSU has been up and down all year (4-4). Tech has an extra day of rest after playing last Friday. – WIN

Oklahoma State at Kansas (over 64.5) – Kansas’ season is done but they’re still scoring (and giving up) a lot of points (scored at least 23 and given up at least 35 during three-game losing streak). IDK what happened to OK State last week but I don’t think they gut shutout again. I think this number is kinda low. – LOSS

UCF at Memphis (+3.5) – Memphis off a bye. In four home games this year they have three wins and a one point loss to Houston. UCF has only played on the road twice (win vs FAU and 21 point loss at ECU on 10/22). Home field matters in college. And UCF doesn’t know who their QB is yet. – LOSS

 Texas (-2.5) at Kansas State – riding the Insider (see below) – WIN

Auburn at Mississippi State (-12.5) – riding the Insider (see below) – LOSS

Hawaii (+27.5) at Fresno State – a little bias in this pick but a little too many points here that Fresno is laying. The Bulldogs (4-4) have (1) win this season by that much: vs the 2-6 New Mexico Lobos two weeks ago. Hawaii is bad, but their last three road games (all losses) have been within 27.5 (they got killed at Michigan early in the season). This is the Teremana game of the Week. – LOSS

**7-7 this week (83-60-1 overall, Toretto’s picks are 5-4-1)**

SEC Insider picks of the weekend (3-1 last week, 16-14-1 overall):

*A note from the (anonymous) Insider: “The SEC Insider stands with the Jewish community and condemns all anti-semitism.”

Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (7-2): Texas (-2.5) at Kansas State – “Texas coming off that bye in a bounce back spot after dropping one to OK state. QB controversy in the Little Apple? Gimme the Horns.” – WIN

Kentucky at Mizzou (PK) – “As stated previously, UK (sic) is frauds. Going back to the well. (sic) Mizzous front gave Georgia fits a few weeks back and UKs OL is weak. Not a good recipe for the cats.” – LOSS

Tennessee at Georgia (-8) – “Something smells with this Georgia game. I don’t know what it is I smell but I can certainly smell something. Assume that means I do not have covid.” – WIN

Auburn at Mississippi State (-12.5) – “Total chaos on the plains with the Aubs. Interim Head Coach Cadillac Williams May let Tank carry it 50 times. Wouldn’t be surprised if the only play calls he installed are probably HB sweep and HB dive.” – LOSS

**2-2 this week (18-16-1 overall, mouthwatering picks are 8-2)**

NFL (6-6 last week, 39-37-1 overall):

MIA at CHI (under 46) – LOSS

MIN at WAS (+3) – PUSH

GB at DET (TT over 23) – LOSS

BUF at NYJ (under 46) – WIN

LAC (-2.5) at ATL – WIN

LAR at TB (under 42.5) – WIN

Monday night: BAL at NO (over 46.5)

Caps For A Cause

**28-9-1.**

That’s my record in college football since I made that promise about three weeks ago. We went 10-4 last week in CFB. NFL is 12-10 in that same span (4-3 last week). Not as flashy as the CFB picks but folks those are winning numbers. We’re gonna keep it rolling (loud) this week with more winners.

I got a wedding to go to on Saturday so I’ll try to update the blog with NFL picks but I’m not guaranteeing that. However, I am guaranteeing that I did my homework this week and we’ll win again.

Let’s get to the picks.

CFB (67-46-1 overall):

Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (3-4-1): Ohio State at Penn State (+15.5) – the last time OSU won this game by more than 16 points was in 2015 (38-10 in Columbus). Since then, games at Penn State had the Nittany Lions winning in ’16, lose by one in ’18 and lose by 13 in the covid year. The Bucs aren’t looking ahead to anything here and neither are the Nittany Lions.

ECU (+3) at BYU – after covering their first two games, BYU is 0-6 ATS. ECU is 2-1 ATS as underdogs but this is more about not trusting BYU.

Boston College at UCONN (+7.5) – this is a both teams suck game so I’m taking the points. UCONN, after losing big to Cuse, Michigan and NC State, have covered four straight games (including the NC State game). BC’s only win this year (of their two total wins) by more than 7 points was a 38-17 win (shoutout Basil and Ellen Prifti).

Arkansas (-3.5) at Auburn – SEC Insider’s (still don’t know) mouthwatering pick

Miami (OH) at Akron (+8.5) – the Zips have covered twice in a row for me and this game is a lot like the last two. Why is Love and Honor laying 8.5 on the road? They beat Robert Morris by double digits but every other game has been a loss or a win by exactly three points.

Florida at Georgia (-22.5) – needed some convincing from the Insider to take this pick. It’s not a look ahead spot (Tennessee at Georgia is next week). This game matters to the Dawgs. It matters to Kirby (South Georgia native). Insider: “Oh man I think (Georgia) wins handily…(Georgia) is getting healthy…(Georgia’s) biggest rival. Take a gander at this.

New Mexico State (-2.5) at UMASS – mainstream bias pick of the week (need to keep track of these)

SMU at Tulsa (+2.5) – read something about Tanner Mordecai having a concussion so he might not play. Tulsa are 2-0 ATS as underdogs. I just have an inkling about this one

***LATE ADD***: Cincinnati at UCF (-0.5) – bought half

Northwestern at Iowa (under 37.5) – they can’t possibly go over this number, can they?

Colorado State (+27.5) at Boise State – this is an eye popping number. Boise is 5-2 but they haven’t won by 27 all year. CSU was the worst team in the country after four games but they’re getting better. Won two of the last three games, all decided by a combined 11 points. I just don’t see why Boise is laying this much (I clearly have a thing for making my picks based on that assessment)

Kentucky at Tennessee (-11.5) – bought the half. Another convincing pick from the Insider: “Night game in (sic) neyland I think they’ll be ready to go”

USC (-15.5) at Arizona – a little nervous about this one cause Arizona has a solid offense, bad season, could bring the energy for this game (the o/u is 76.5). But USC is off a bye (so is Arizona, for the record), they had the scare at Oregon State (who always plays the Trojans well) and USC lost the Utah game that Utah was just meant to win. Every other win has been by at least 16 points.

***LATE ADD***: Ole Miss (-2.5) at Texas A&M – took it after I saw the report of Jimbo canceling his production meeting with ESPN and his agent is in town

Pitt at North Carolina (-3) – can’t remember why I liked this game. This strategy worked last week, FYI (Editor’s note: I’m writing this at 8:30 am so no Teremana has been consumed, for the record)

MTSU at UTEP (-1.5) – there was some bias in this pick as well. However, I MTSU had that upset against a bad Miami team, they beat Colorado State (when they really sucked) and Texas State (?) early in the season. They’ve lost every game by at least 15 points. I’ll bet on the home team here.

SEC Insider picks of the weekend (13-13-1 overall):

Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (6-2): Arkansas (-3.5) at Auburn – “Harsin has lost the locker room. Portal going crazy. WPS my mouth is watering”

Cincinnati at UCF (-1.5)

Florida at Georgia (-22.5) – …continued analysis from above…“Jamon Dumas Johnson said this week they still have a bad taste in their mouth from 2020 and how those seniors went out with a loss there.”

Kentucky at Tennessee (-12) – …continued analysis from above…“My take still stands in Uk being frauds”

NFL (34-31-1 overall):

***above record includes Baltimore (+2.5) at Tampa Bay on TNF***

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Wowee-wow-wow-wow. Two weeks ago we got back on track. Last week we lit that shit on fire like Ghost Rider coming down the ramp about jump the length a football field with 100 yards worth of helicopters covering the turf (I really need to rewatch Ghost Rider cause that movie was awesome and also Wes Bentley).

13-2 in college football. And one of those losses was the (anonymous) SEC Insider’s mouthwatering pick so I was really like 13-1 (Editor’s note: I will continue to follow the mouthwatering picks). Just looking back on why I made my picks last week I was so fucking smart. But it does scare me. Because that’s hard to duplicate and now I’m a little over confident (I took Georgia Tech -2.5 Thursday night and they lost 16-9). I gotta keep my head clear (kinda hard when I’m drinking Teremana while writing this), stick to the science (when applicable) and just do my thing (whatever that means).

NFL went 1-2, but I won in terms of units. I really should be tracking my picks that way but that’s too much math and the Finite (no, not fortnite) math classes at IU burned my brain in ways that I don’t ever want to talk about again. I put 5 units on Bengals -3 and Burrow to Chase saved the day for the win and cover. Then I took over in Chiefs-Bills and live lined Chiefs before their final drive (Mahomes INT) just cause I had some money to work with and wanted action on the game. That was a move that was reflective of CFB Week 5 & NFL Week 4 so I need to stray away from that.

With all that said, let’s get to the picks:

CFB (57-43-1 overall):

Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (3-3-1): Syracuse at Clemson (-13.5) – nice win for Cuse over NC State last week, but they’ve also beaten Wagner, Virginia (by 2), Purdue (by 3) and their only away game of the season was a win at (an improved ) UCONN team. One away game this season! Now they go to Clemson. Outside of the dome. DJ is getting a lot better, Clemson could be a playoff team, I’m not overthinking this – LOSS

Akron (+18.5) at Kent State – literally the same reason I picked Akron last week (+13.5 vs CMU). Both teams suck. Why is Kent State getting this many points? – WIN

Iowa at Ohio State (-28.5) – this line has already moved to OSU -30. I read something about the Buckeyes getting healthy. Yeah Iowa’s got the good defense but both teams are coming off a bye. You think Ryan Day can’t figure this defense out? – WIN

Cincinnati (-3.5) at SMU – I’m mostly riding a friend of mine who seems to think UC rolls here. He’s slightly delusional but he’s been to this game at SMU before so I’ll trust him. UC coming off a bye too (though SMU played last Friday so they have an extra day of rest) – LOSS

Duke (+9) at Miami – I know Duke is fraudulent and they only beat Northwestern by 8, but each of their losses is by 8 or less points. After Miami’s first two sleeper games of the year (wins vs Bethune Cookman and Southern Missouri) they’re 0-4 against the spread and lost outright as favorites twice. I don’t trust the Canes. – WIN

Bowling Green (+6.5) at Central Michigan – can’t remember why I picked this one. I’d fade it (Editor’s note: was not drinking Teremana when I made this pick) – WIN

Marshall at James Madison (-12.5) – I like JMU in a bounce back game at home. They lost by 7 at a solid Georgia Southern team after getting to #25 in the polls. Back home for the first time in two weeks. I will say, Marshall has stayed within 10 points in each of their three losses (Editor’s note: was drinking Teremana when I made this pick) – LOSS

Boston College at Wake Forest (-20.5) – Wake Forest is an actual good team and Boston College is an actual bad team. Both teams off the bye, I’ll take the better team in every respect to win – WIN

Texas at Oklahoma State (over 60.5) – OK State with the points was on my mind but I think the total points is the better bet. Texas has played two great coaches/defenses in Bama and Iowa State and didn’t top 30 points. Every other game they’ve scored at least 34. Oklahoma State has at least 34 in each game and the over in their games has hit in four straight. – WIN

UCLA at Oregon (over 71.5) – kinda like OK State vs TCU last week, there’s so many points I just wanna be in on it. This game will be fun. (UCLA has 40 in every game besides one (32 in that one) and Oregon has at least 41 in each game besides the Georgia game) – WIN

Florida Atlantic at UTEP (+4) – mainstream bias pick of the week – WIN

Mississippi State at Alabama (-20.5) – bought the half point. If Bama loses this game, their season is over. I’m here to report that Bama’s season is not over. Bama has won this game by at least 24 points in four straight years. – WIN

Kansas State at TCU (-3.5) – rider – WIN

**went 10-3 Saturday, 10-4 on the week (updated CFB record: 67-46-1 overall…Toretto’s picks: 3-4-1)**

SEC Insider picks of the weekend (10-12-1 overall):

Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (5-2): Kansas State at TCU (-3.5) – “The TCU train keeps rolling. Can they win the (sic) big 12? Bearcat fans starting to think their transition to the Big 12 may not be as easy as they thought.” – WIN

Purdue at Wisconsin (-2.5) – WIN

Texas A&M at South Carolina (+3) – “Que (sic) Samdstorm.” (Editor’s note: this was not an initial pick by the Insider (no clue who it could be). I received the other three picks then replied ‘No SEC picks…🤔’ and this person responded ‘You’re right. I will add one. Gosh I’ve been in a slump’ and immediately responded with this pick” – WIN

UCLA (+6.5) at Oregon – “Bo Nix hasn’t fallen flat on his face in a while. Looking forward to true dual between him and DTR.” – LOSS

**went 3-1 (updated overall record: 13-13-1…mouthwatering picks: 6-2)**

NFL (29-28-1 overall):

ATL at CIN (over 47.5) – Bengals offense is starting to come together (wouldn’t be surprised if they put up 30 again), their run defense sucks and the Falcons are the best running team in the league so they could steal a couple touchdowns there, mix in a couple field goals and we got it

GB at WAS (+4.5) – why not? Can’t trust the Packers to beat the breaks off anyone (beat Tampa by 2, Chicago on SNF and the Saints in week two by 10), Commanders coming off a win and extended rest and Taylor Heinecke could bring some energy to the offense

TB at CAR (+13.5) – this is a science pick and it’s more about not trusting the Bucs. Plus the Panthers aren’t tanking, they just don’t need CMC to win games

NYJ at DEN (1H u17.5) – read something about the weather being not great for the first half of this game and maybe Brett Rypien needs a half to get into rhythm

KC at SF (u49.5) – gonna be windy in the Bay Area, 49ers have a lock down defense, just feel like this will be a slow game