Blog

Where Griff was WRONG:

Indiana at Oregon OVER 53.5: “I’ll take the points because both teams have great offenses and they don’t mind playing in a shootout-type of game. Feel free to fade this one.” – I should’ve trusted my heart. This was the most ‘I don’t know what to do with my hands,’ outcome imaginable. I remember last year, when IU was 2-0, they went on the road and beat UCLA in primetime on NBC. That was an, ‘oh shit, maybe this Cignetti guy is the real deal’ moment. Even when we were 5-0 going on the road to Northwestern, that was still a traditional B1G road game where the Hoosiers shit the bed. We only led by three (3) in Q4 but won 41-24. Cig went to the student section and shouted, ‘GO IU! GO IU!.’ Now he’s the third highest paid coach in college football and we’re on the road to 12-0. 12/6/25.

Washington State at Ole Miss -31.5: “As a home favorite of 30+ points since 2021, Kiffin and Ole Miss are 6-2-1 ATS, covering in four straight games.” – Ole Miss only won 24-21.

Wake Forest at Oregon State +3: “I’ve been a proponent of betting against the 0-6 Beavers this year. This week, the turn tables. This game means absolutely NOTHING to Wake Forest.” – Wake Forest won 39-14.

Where Griff was RIGHT:

Kansas at Texas Tech -14: “This is my team and I’m riding them until they tell me not to. 5-0 ATS. Let’s keep it going.” – Tech won 42-17.

Pitt +10 at Florida State: “I think FSU is joining my fraternity of fraudulent teams…Pitt made a QB change last week, going with a freshman over Eli Holstein, and beat Boston College 48-7. It feels sacrilegious to support a team that dropped a Jew the same week that Israeli hostages are being reunited with their families, but here we are.” – Pitt won outright 34-31.

Iowa -3 at Wisconsin: “This is a great spot to take Wisconsin, yeah? No. This blog has established that the Badgers are dead, even though everything is setup for them to win/cover here. In its last six (6) B1G night games on the road, Iowa is 2-4 SU. During the spring, Wisconsin players were doing 42 pushups after each practice, a reminder they gave up 42 points to Iowa in a loss last year. Maybe Wisconsin has had their sights set on this game all year and that’s why they suck? No. They suck because they suck. The pushups are way too gimmicky. I do that, and more, almost every day. Don’t fall for this. Take Iowa.” – Iowa won 37-0.

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Last week: 9-8-1 / In 2025: 50-46-3 / Since 2022: 304-290-7

Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (In 2025: 3-4 / Overall: 20-17-1): Texas Tech -7 at Arizona State – Tech is 6-0 ATS now. Not sure if Same Leavitt is suiting up for ASU. Give me a reason to not keep betting Texas Tech.

Washington at Michigan UNDER 51.5 – This is going to be an ugly game. You got Washington (5-1) starting at 9am PT/12pm ET. The Huskies have not given up more than 24 points all season. Washington’s games have gone UNDER the total in three (3) straight games. Michigan is 3-1 to the UNDER with Sherrone Moore as head coach (OVER is 2-0 with Biff Poggi).

LSU +1.5 at Vanderbilt – The last time Vandy was a favorite at home of 7 points or less was in 2019 (they beat Northern Illinois 24-18, did not cover the 7pt spread). Pavia and Co. have only been favored by single digits once in the last two years (-8.5 at Georgia State in 2024, lost SU 36-32). I don’t think Vandy has been tested enough this year. LSU’s offense hasn’t looked great (haven’t scored more than 20 points vs a P4 team) but their defense is great (have given up either 7 or 10 points in every game besides giving up 24 in a loss at Ole Miss). Tired of the parentheses yet? Take LSU in what should be a close game.

Georgia Tech +1.5 at Duke – Tailing the Insider (I’m a little nervous about this one though). Tech went 1-2 ATS as a road dawg last season. This is the first time in this spot for the Jackets this season. Duke has covered three straight as favorites of less than five (5) points and are coming off a bye.

Arizona at Houston +1.5 – After betting on these teams the last few weeks, I believe Houston is the better team. Only loss is to Texas Tech and they’re 4-2 ATS. Arizona’s biggest wins are over Kansas State (frauds) and Oklahoma State (bigger frauds). I should be taking Houston ml but I’ll play it safe.

West Virginia at UCF -7.5 – This blog has been monitoring WVU’s status all year and has determined the Mountaineers are not that good. We predicted their big win over Pitt in Week 3, but they haven’t done diddly since then. Three straight conference losses, all by at least 14 points. UCF is not a great team either (3-3 SU and ATS) but I don’t trust WVU on the road in this spot.

Michigan State at Indiana -27.5 – Under Coach Cig, IU is 5-2 ATS as a home favorite of at least 25 points. Michigan State just got humiliated at home by the emerging power that is UCLA. There’s nothing for them to prove in this game. Per Bite-Sized Bison, the Hoosiers may be susceptible to giving up a big play or two, but IU dominates MSU in every other metric. 12/6/25.

Ole Miss +7 at Georgia – There’s just no reason to believe Georgia will win this game by more than a touchdown. The best teams the Dawgs have played (Bama and Tennessee) were in games decided by a total of 6 points. Ole Miss escaped Washington State last week with a 24-21 win because Lane Kiffin has had this game on his mind for a while. The SEC is hard to read this year, but this game will be close, so take the points.

Texas A&M at Arkansas +7.5 – The second straight “I Really Just Wanna Bet On This Team” Game of the Week (1-0, Kent State beat UMass last week). I really wanna bet on Bobby Petrino. I didn’t last week when the Razorbacks covered against Tennessee (L 34-31 but covered +10.5). A&M has looked the part this whole year, but I gotta follow my gut.

Ohio State -25.5 at Wisconsin – Did you read my blurb about Wisconsin in the ‘Where Griff was RIGHT’ section? Go do that.

UNLV +13.5 at Boise State – I’m legitimately confused by this line. UNLV is 6-0. Boise is 4-2. I haven’t read anything about UNLV missing a key player to injury. Boise State coaches and the AD are asking fans to stay for the whole game this Saturday, but it’s a sold-out game. Definitely feel free to fade this one, but UNLV being that much of a dawg makes zero sense.

Oregon -17.5 at Rutgers +17.5 – I wanted to take Rutgers, but I remembered how good of a team Oregon is (despite losing at home to Indiana) and how good of a coach Dan Lanning is (despite being outcoached by Cig). The Ducks do not care about a cross-country flight to Piscataway or Rutgers celebrating Homecoming. Oregon is one of the best teams in the country. They will take care of business on the road, far away from home, because that’s what good teams do.

Texas at Kentucky +12.5 – Really, how good was Texas’ win over Oklahoma last week? Arch wasn’t spectacular (21/27-166-1td), Mateer shouldn’t have come back from his injury that soon (3 INTs) and Texas’ defense never really felt challenged. Kentucky is coming off a bye week. As a home dawg of at least 10 points since 2018, Stoops and the Cats are 5-1 ATS.

Penn State at Iowa -3 – I don’t think firing Franklin will put a jolt into Penn State. There’s no reason they can’t salvage their season, but it won’t start this week on the road at Iowa. The Hawkeyes are 5-1 ATS. Penn State is 0-6 ATS.

Tennessee +8.5 at Alabama – This is dangerous for me because of how much the blog likes Bama. They are 4-0-1 ATS after losing to Florida State in Week 1. The push was at Mizzou last week. Tennessee has failed to cover the spread in three straight games. This is a bad bet. Just fade this one.

Mizzou ml -122 at Auburn – Tailing the Insider.

Utah -3.5 at BYU – Utah is 5-1 SU. BYU is 6-0. But the Utes have been tested more than BYU has. Utah got spanked at home vs Texas Tech, covered the spread in a win over a bad West Virginia team and blew out Arizona State 42-10 (ASU did not have Sam Leavitt). According to my calculations, BYU’s only legit win is over Colorado (24-21, didn’t cover spread). They also beat WVU and Arizona but we’ve established those teams are bad, and Colorado may be as well. Give me Utah in the Holy War.

Cincinnati -21.5 at Oklahoma State – “I’m gonna continue to bet against OK St until they prove to be competitive.” I wrote that last week. I will write it again next week. They are 1-5 ATS. UC fucked us last week, but in this blog, we bet against the very bad teams no matter what.

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SEC Insider Picks of the Weekend

Last week: 1-2 / 2025 record: 8-13 / Since 2022: 62-72-3

*the following is verbatim*

Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (2-4 in 2025 / 16-17-1 overall): Missouri ml -122 at Auburn – I truly do not think Auburn can bounce back from what happened at the end of the 1st half against Georgia. They responded about as poorly as you can. From the AD to the Head Coach to the players. Hugh lost the locker room this week when they kicked that RB off the team. Pretty telling when all the players come out in support of the player. I expect Freeze gone soon.

Ohio State -25.5 at Wisconsin – Wisconsin is about as bad as it gets and this OSU train has no signs of stopping. Buckeyes roll.

Georgia Tech ml +100 at Duke – Insiders know I picked GT to win the conference pre season. Brent Key has these boys playing some football. I like the Jackets to get up for this noon kick on the road.

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Prem League Advisor Pick of the Weekend

2025 record: 2-3 / Since 2023: 10-9

Man City ML + Arsenal ML +109

No write up. Business decision. ML parlay top teams that’s the strategy

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Last week: 8-6 / In 2025: 41-38-2 / Since 2022: 295-282-6

Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (In 2025: 2-4 / Overall: 19-17-1): Kansas at Texas Tech -14 – This is my team and I’m riding them until they tell me not to. 5-0 ATS. Let’s keep it going.

Ohio State -14 at Illinois TTu 17.5 – Yeah, I’m doubling down on this game because OSU is proving to be the real deal again. The Bucks have not given up double digit points to anyone this year and they are 4-1 ATS. Illinois is not bad, even though the loss to Indiana should have relegated the Illini to the G5, but they are nowhere close to Ohio State’s level.

Alabama at Mizzou +3 – Eli Drinkwitz and Mizzou are 7-1 ATS and SU as a home dawg of less than 10 points since 2020. They got a good run game. If this game were in Tuscaloosa, I’d take Bama -7, but the Crimson Tide have not been great as road favorites under DeBoer (2-4 ATS, 1-1 with a spread of less than 10 points).

Pitt +10 at Florida State – I think FSU is joining my fraternity of fraudulent teams. That win over Bama in Week 1 is starting to feel very distant. The Noles have lost two straight and did not cover either game. They’re other two wins are against Kent State and something called ‘ETAM.’ Pitt made a QB change last week, going with a freshman over Eli Holstein, and beat Boston College 48-7. It feels sacrilegious to support a team that dropped a Jew the same week that Israeli hostages are being reunited with their families, but here we are.

UCF at Cincinnati -10.5 AND OVER 54.5 – This is where I get myself in trouble. Nipp at Noon. UC is hot. The Cats are getting a lot of national attention right now. The OVER has hit in four straight games (at least 54 total points scored each of those games). UCF is on a two-game skid, SU and ATS. 54 and 57 total points have been scored in those games. I’m a little scared of this one, but I’m following the bread crumbs.

Houston -14.5 at Oklahoma State – I’m gonna continue to bet against OK St until they prove to be competitive. Houston must be deflated after getting blown out, 35-11, at home against Texas Tech last week. That was their Super Bowl. But this blog loves Texas Tech and knows they are real contender this year and the Cougars are still 4-1 overall. The number is ugly, sure, but Oklahoma State is just as ugly and they ran out of money to buy any makeup.

Washington State at Ole Miss -31.5 – As a home favorite of 30+ points since 2021, Kiffin and Ole Miss are 6-2-1 ATS, covering in four straight games. Ole Miss plays at Georgia next week. If you wanna stay away cause you think this is a look-ahead game, I won’t shame you for that.

UMass at Kent State -2.5 – I think these are the two worst teams in the country. I just want to bet on this game. That’s all. Give me the home team by less than a field goal.

Indiana at Oregon OVER 53.5 – I have skewed vision with this game because I want IU to win but, as you’ll read in the Insider’s section below, there is some childish behavior going on with IU’s DC and I do not like that. It’s also the cross-timezone thing. I’ll take the points because both teams have great offenses and they don’t mind playing in a shootout-type of game. Feel free to fade this one.

Iowa State -2.5 at Colorado – Tailing the Insider.

Nebraska at Maryland +7 – Maryland has covered two straight games as an underdog (+10.5 at Wisconsin and +5.5 vs Washington). They blew the win last week vs Washington, but they still covered. Nebraska is on the road for the first time all year in this game. The Huskers are not a team to be trusted as a touchdown favorite on the road. I’ve seen them enough this year and I don’t believe they can do it.

Wake Forest at Oregon State +3 – I’ve been a proponent of betting against the 0-6 Beavers this year. This week, the turn tables. This game means absolutely NOTHING to Wake Forest. It’s not a conference game. It’s all the way across the country. They have a bye next week. I think they mail it in. Meanwhile, I think Oregon State looks at this as maybe their only shot at a P4 win this year. That’s enough to get them up for this game. And if Wake were that much better of a team than Oregon State, the spread would be much higher.

Florida +7.5 at Texas A&M – This is my “The SEC Is Pretty Equal All Around This Year So Take Underdogs Of At Least One Touchdown” Game of the Week. If DJ Lagway is able to take his confidence he earned from the Texas game last week, we’ll cover this game.

Iowa -3 at Wisconsin – This is a great spot to take Wisconsin, yeah? No. This blog has established that the Badgers are dead, even though everything is setup for them to win/cover here. In its last six (6) B1G night games on the road, Iowa is 2-4 SU. During the spring, Wisconsin players were doing 42 pushups after each practice, a reminder they gave up 42 points to Iowa in a loss last year. Maybe Wisconsin has had their sights set on this game all year and that’s why they suck? No. They suck because they suck. The pushups are way too gimmicky. I do that, and more, almost every day. Don’t fall for this. Take Iowa.

Michigan +2.5 at USC – I’m just taking the better team here, but this is a weird game. Michigan has yet to cover a spread with Sherrone Moore as head coach this season (2-0 with Biff Poggi). USC has failed to cover three straight. In the end, I think Michigan makes more plays on offense.

Georgia -4 at Auburn – Auburn is not a good football team, even in a watered down SEC. They have an advantage coming off a bye and playing at home, but I don’t trust them. Jackson Arnold is very bland. They are 0-2 in the SEC. However, Georgia is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games as a road favorite, including three consecutive ATS losses with the number less than four (4) points. Maybe I jumped the gun on this one.

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SEC Insider Picks of the Weekend

Last week: 2-1 / 2025 record: 7-11 / Since 2022: 61-70-3

*the following is verbatim*

Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (2-4 in 2025 / 16-17-1 overall): Ohio State -14 at Illinois – I can’t get the Illinois v Indiana game out of my head. Buckeyes haven’t given up double digits this year and we still haven’t seen the true rolodex of this Buckeye offense. Buckeyes big.

Indiana at Oregon -7 – Why is Indiana’s Defensive Coordinator tweeting at people about the size ability of his D-Line in the days leading up to the game. Fake tough guy behavior. Time zone travel continues to be a problem in the B1G. Google me.

Iowa State -2.5 at Colorado – I like the Clones to bounce back here. I still think they’re a good football team. Lots of non football distractions in Boulder this week. Prayers up to Prime.

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Prem League Advisor Pick of the Weekend

2025 record: 2-3 / Since 2023: 10-9

I guess the Prem is on a bye again. What the hell is this guy/girl/random individual even doing on this blog?

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Last week: 7-12 / In 2025: 33-32-2 / Since 2022: 287-276-6

Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (In 2025: 2-3 / Overall: 19-16-1): Wisconsin at Michigan -17.5 – Wisconsin is dead. We know this. Bryce Underwood is starting to look like HIM. Even if you don’t think he’s HIM, Underwood has been HIM against lesser competition this year. My only concern is Sherrone Moore taking the clipboard back from Biff Poggi. But I don’t think that stops Michigan rolling at B1G Noon.

Illinois at Purdue +9.5 – I put zero stock into Illinois’ win over USC last week. The Trojans are not good in central and eastern timezones. Again, we know this. We also know the Illini are on a rollercoaster with a blowout at Indiana and last week’s miracle win. Purdue is coming off a bye. Rollercoasters always come back down. We could see Spoilermaker this weekend.

Iowa State at Cincinnati ML -122 – They proved me wrong in winning at Kansas last week. Sorsby is trying to get himself drafted and UC fans always show up for big games like this. Iowa State lost a couple of CBs for the season last week and UC may get DT Dontay “The Godfather” Corleone back for the first time in a month. Since 2019, Matt Campbell is 3-7 ATS as a road favorite of 4.5 points or less. And the UNDER is 7-3 in those games.

Clemson v UNC OVER 46.5 – Tailing the Insider.

Oklahoma State at Arizona -20.5 – OSU is deader than dead. They fire Gundy then lose by 18 to a shitty Baylor team. They covered the spread though. But now they hit the road with less than what they had last week. OSU fired its DC. The Director of Player Development yelled at a kid on the sideline (wah wah) and got suspended. That kid then transferred. Arizona is not hot shit by any means. Got their ass kicked by Iowa State last week, 39-14. But they’re 3-1 with some cupcake wins at home. This is strictly a bet against Oklahoma State.

Vanderbilt at Alabama -10.5 – So Kirby Smart does have a Bama problem. But I should’ve stuck to my guns about what I think Alabama is this year. We rode them two straight weeks after losing to Florida State. Then, I let my emotions get the best of me last week. Bama may very well be the best team in the SEC. This is a revenge game. I’m just trusting my gut on this. But the numbers are not with me. At Vandy, Diego Pavia is 6-0 ATS as a road dawg, including four (4) SU wins.

Penn State -24.5 at UCLA – James Franklin is 5-1 ATS as a road dawg of 21 points or more at Penn State. UCLA is another dead team. I don’t care about the cross-country disadvantage for Penn State. UCLA won’t be able to do diddly against the Nittany Lions’ defense.

Washington at Maryland +5.5 – I really like the Maryland freshman QB. I DO care about Washington going cross-country after being fired up to host OSU last Saturday. This will be a huge letdown spot for a Washington team that a lot of the country is high on. Throw Maryland ml in your parlays for a little extra juice.

Michigan State at Nebraska OVER 49.5 – The over has hit in three straight MSU games by an average of about 21 points. That’s a lot. The over has hit in three straight Nebraska games by an average of about 13 points. That’s also a lot. I like Michigan St with the points as well, but I LOVE the over.

Kent State at Oklahoma -45.5 – Since last year, Kent State is 0-4 ATS as underdogs of at least 45 points. They’ve lost those games (at Penn St, Texas Tech, Tennessee and Florida State) by a combined score of 255-24.

Miami (FL) -4.5 at Florida State – Tailing the Insider.

Texas Tech -12.5 at Houston – I’ve been all in on Texas Tech this year and I’m not wavering when it feels like the rest of the country is this week. TTU is coming off a bye. Last time we saw them, they proved to the country what they can be when they beat the brakes off Utah on B1G Noon. Now, Houston has been planning for this rivalry game. They only beat Oregon State by three last Friday, failing to cover for the first time all year. They’ll be ready. But Tech will prove to be too much.

Duke at California +3 – This is Duke’s third road game in four weeks and it will be a 10:30pm ET (7:30 PT) start for them. Cal is coming back from Boston College with a 28-24 win. This is their first home game in three weeks. I know I flip-flop on the whole timezone thing, but I’m betting against Duke in this spot and hoping that Cal freshman QB can find his groove in front of his home crowd.

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SEC Insider Picks of the Weekend

Last week: 1-2 / 2025 record: 5-10 / Since 2022: 59-69-3

*the following is verbatim*

Folks – I’m not quite sure where we turn from here. 10 steps backwards. 2 steps forward. Then another 5 steps backwards last week. But, you know how you get out of a slump? You keep swinging. “Don’t give up. Don’t ever give up.“

Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (1-4 in 2025 / 15-17-1 overall): Miami (FL) -4.5 at Florida State – Inexcusable loss last week for FSU. I think we put far too much stock into what they are after beating Alabama week 1. My take? FSU is a fraud. I believe Miami is a true natty contender. Beck has seen plenty of tough road environments. Give me the Canes.

Mississippi State +15.5 at Texas A&M – Line opened at 13.5. Miss State is undefeated against the spread this year. I doubted them last week and I was wrong. Hand up. How bout the job Jeff Lebby has done? Lebby is from Texas – went to Oklahoma. This one means something to him.

Clemson v UNC OVER 46.5 – UNC simply cannot stop anyone. Dabo and co know they need to make a splash here against a big name/inferior opponent. This is the kind of spot where he can run it up and brag to the media about it after.

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Prem League Advisor Pick of the Weekend

2025 record: 2-2 / Since 2023: 10-8

*the following is verbatim*

Leeds Double Chance + Man U ML +121

Devastating last week to lose in the 97th minute but that’s why we watch. This week we start with Leeds. This line makes no sense, only +175 on the ML against Tottenham. I sprinkled Leeds ML in my discord but for the pick of the week let’s stick with double chance. Adding in Man U in a must win scenario. Sunderland is solid but I feel like these are the games Man U wins to give fans hope.

What a week this has been.

After working close to 12 hours, going 11-4-1 myself on the picks, the SEC Insider coming back from the dead with a 2-1 day and the Prem League Advisor winning for the second straight week, I spent my Saturday night at the local Bdubs.

I spent 2.5 hours chopping it up with a guy named (I THINK) John. Early 50s, kinda looks like blonde Luke Combs with a shorter beard, says he’s one of the top guys at his construction company. Seven kids. Pro-Kirk, pro-choice, anti-vax. Great guy. I had anywhere from 1-5 tall Miller Lites.

I get home around 10 pm EST. Get a text from my brother that he has an extra ticket for the Bengals @ Vikings game Sunday (him and his buddies have been planning this trip for a couple months).

Fuck it.

I sleep for about 2.5 hours. Wake up, shower and shave. Hit the road around 3 am EST. It’s about 6.5 hours to drive to Minneapolis. I only stop twice.

Before my brother and his buddies meet me at this bar, I’m sitting next to this kid named (I can confirm) Austin. Mid-20s, from the city, went to school at North Dakota State. He pats me on the back (I’m wearing my #85 orange Tee Higgins jersey).

“You from Cincy?”

We chop it up for about 30 minutes over a couple draft beers. It’s 9:30 am CST. Most of the conversation revolved around CFB gambling. He hit a 5-leg parlay the day before. $100 to win $1,800. Great guy.

If you’re still reading this, I think you know how the Bengals game went. Lost 48-10. The WORST loss in franchise history. A literal all-time defensive performance from Vikings DB Isaiah Rodgers. Great stadium. Maybe the coolest stadium I’ve ever been in.

I left midway through the 3rd quarter when we went down 41-3.

Drove about 6.5 hours back to Marquette. I only stopped twice. Got back home at 9:55 pm EST.

Let’s skip to Wednesday. My story was about a 2 hour 15 minute drive away into the central timezone. I have to work on a laptop when I’m done at this county board meeting. The board voted to move the county’s 4-H coordinator from full-time to part-time. People were pissed. Kids were crying. The board had its reasons. The meeting began at 5 pm CST. This isn’t the point.

Since I’m on a laptop, I need WiFi. The only place in town that I saw would be open after 10 pm CST (with access to WiFi) was this bar. They were playing music of course, lots of TVs (‘Iron Man 2’ was on one of them, pretty sweet), Guardians-Tigers game on a few flatscreens.

This may have been the worst overall writing/editing experience I’ve had since I started this job. I won’t get into the issues I was having with the laptop, but it was all of the issues. It was loud in this place. I missed my deadline. The story ended up airing the next day.

I was so frustrated, depressed, just miserable while sitting in this bar (I was sitting at a table, not the actual bar).

Cursing to myself. “You dumb fuck.” “Stupid fucking idiot.” “Fuck this laptop, man.” “Goddamn clanker.”

I finished up my night at about 10:30 pm CT. A 2.5 hour drive back to work is waiting for me. The bar is basically empty besides two people sitting there and the bartender. They’re all friends. After I pack up, I walk up to the bar.

Me: “Hey, what’s that shot where I take it then you slap me in the face?”

Bartender: “A hurricane shot.”

Me: “Yeah I’ll take one of those please.”

She slapped me in the ear. It hurt.

I got back to work around 1:30 am EST. No stops.

I don’t feel like I’ve fully recovered from a lack of sleep this last week. I still have another 12 hour day staring me in the face on Saturday.

But before we get to this Saturday, let’s look back at last Saturday.

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Where Griff was WRONG:

Florida +7.5 at Miami (FL): “This line should be A LOT bigger.” – I still think it should have been bigger. Second week in a row Florida +7.5 has ended up in this part of the blog. They are just as dead as Wisconsin and I am done betting on them.

UNLV at Miami (OH) +2.5: “The Rebels are crossing three timezones to play in Oxford, Ohio? For a noon kickoff? Whoever scheduled this game for UNLV needs to be fired. Love and Honor.” – Folks, we had this one and let it slip away. Miami (OH) was up 14 in the 4th quarter before losing by three. UNLV moves to 4-0. Miami (OH) moves to 0-3.

SMU +7 at TCU: “The Iron Skillet rivalry is coming to an end because TCU chose to end it…I know nothing about these teams besides TCU beating North Carolina in Week 1. This is a spite bet.” – Same story as Miami (OH). SMU had a 96% chance to cover with 10:30 left in the game, leading by three. TCU took the lead back a minute later and scored again a few minutes after that to cover. I prefer the air fryer to the skillet anyway.

Where Griff was RIGHT:

Arkansas at Memphis +7.5: “(Memphis) HC Ryan Silverfield is 5-2 ATS as a home dawg since 2020. Arkansas had a chance to take down Ole Miss last week, who played their backup QB, and couldn’t do it. Now they have to go on the road…and win by a touchdown? No thanks.” – Memphis won 32-31. Silverfield is now 6-2 ATS as a home dawg. The Toretto has now hit two weeks in a row after an 0-2 start.

Texas Tech at Utah UNDER 57.5: “This is the first real game for each team. Both are 3-0 but their opponents’ combined record is 1-11. Kickoff is at 10 a.m. local time…I think both offenses will need to adjust to facing better defenses. Could also be a good spot for a 1H under bet.” – The 1H under did hit as well. I got a little nervous cause only 13 points were scored through the first three quarters but there were 31 points in the fourth.

Maryland +10 at Wisconsin: “I just think Wisconsin is cooked. They’re already talking about this being a must win game.” – Maryland won 27-10. I thought Fickell was a perfect hire for Wisconsin, but I also thought Archie Miller was a perfect hire for Indiana basketball in 2017. Archie got four years. I’m not sure Fickell sees year four.

Let’s get to the picks.

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Last week: 11-4-1 / In 2025: 26-20-2 / Since 2022: 280-264-6

Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (In 2025: 2-2 / Overall: 19-15-1): UCF +6 at Kansas State: This line is so damn fishy but I’m taking the bait. KSU is 1-3 and have no reason begin favored in any game right now. UCF are 3-0, riding high after beating North Carolina by three scores and they are playing for their former OL coach who died on Sunday. Everything is pointing in UCF’s direction for this game. I’m not sure what I’m missing here.

Notre Dame -4.5 at Arkansas: I think Notre Dame is still a top 10 team that lost to two very good teams to start the year. I think Arkansas is quickly deflating after their last two weeks. Sam Pittman might be the next P4 coach to go down.

USC at Illinois +6.5: This is all about USC not playing up to par in the eastern or central timezone. They failed to cover 20.5 points at Purdue a couple weeks ago. Action Network tells me, “Since 2013, USC is 1-12 outright and just 1-13 ATS when playing in Central and Eastern time.”

Duke at Syracuse OVER 61.5: These are two of the worst defenses in the country. Duke gives up 32 ppg and Syracuse gives up 28 ppg. My math tells me those numbers add up to 60. I’ve mentioned Duke QB Darian Mensah being very turnover prone, so if he can play clean against a bad defense, Duke will have no trouble scoring. Cuse lost its starting QB in the win at Clemson last week. The kid who stepped in was supposed to be the starter before QB Angeli transferred in. I’m betting on him wanting to prove to everyone that he shoulda been the starter all along, and HC Fran Brown will give him every opportunity to do so in the home dome.

Cincinnati at Kansas -4.5: UC HC Scott Satterfield, as a road dawg between 1-7 points, is 3-4-1 ATS. This is just a pure gut feeling and very fade-able.

South Alabama at North Texas -12.5: USA (1-3) and UNT (4-0) are very different. South Alabama wants to run the ball, and is good at it, but that hasn’t helped them in the win column. UNT’s coach is rumored for a P4 job after this season and continuing to win will help his case. They’re QB hasn’t thrown a pick this year and he’s completing over 70% of his passes with more than 1,000 yards. I love this pick.

Utah State at Vanderbilt -22.5: Diego Pavia and Vandy are 3-1 ATS as favorites of at least three touchdowns since last season. The only game they didn’t cover was a 10 point win vs Ball State last year.

Indiana -7.5 at Iowa: I got the bug. IU can score the shit out of it. Iowa gave up 28 points to Rutgers last week. I think we can all agree that Indiana is better than Rutgers. Coach Cig is coming for blood.

LSU at Ole Miss OVER 55.5: I’m just doing what Lane is telling us to do.

Auburn at Texas A&M -6.5: Auburn beat writers aren’t confident in the Tigers in this game. Why should we be? A&M coming off a bye, their next three games are at home, I think they’re in a comfortable place to win by at least a touchdown.

Utah at West Virginia +13.5: Back to it. Utah finally played a real team last week in Texas Tech and got embarrassed at home. Now it’s a cross-country game in Morgantown. WVU got blown out at Kansas, but we knew that was gonna happen. This is the “I Think I Have the WVU Crystal Ball” Game of the Week.

California at Boston College OVER 52.5: Yes, Cal lost 34-0 to SDSU last week. Yes, their three wins are against two awful teams and a Minnesota team traveling out west. But that freshman QB is still pretty solid, I think. Sure, BC is 1-2, but they’ve scored 66 and 40 in two of those games. I don’t know what I’m doing taking this game. Just fade it.

San Diego State at Northern Illinois UNDER 43.5: From all the bias I’ve read, I feel good about this one. NIU (1-2) averages about 13 ppg but they’re getting stronger in the run game. NIU is back home after two straight road losses to Maryland and Mississippi St. They’ll wanna do anything to get a win at home, which means grinding it out when they have the ball. That SDSU (2-1) team was blown out by Washington State and has another win vs Stony Brook. Wash St just got blown out by Washington. I think SDSU is a volatile team doing that think I like: traveling to a different time zone. This game will be ugly.

Tennessee at Mississippi State OVER 63.5: Pretty sure this is the most O/Us I’ve had in a blog so far this year. MSU (4-0) is at home for the 4th straight game. They’ve put up 63 and 38 points the last two games and upset Arizona State before that. Scoring isn’t an issue, and it won’t be against Tennessee. Hell, the Vols let UAB score 24 points last week while Trent Dilfer was taking pictures of the Neyland crowd from the sideline. We know what Tennessee can do on offense. Only thing I’m worried about is this being UT’s first road game of the year.

Arizona at Iowa State -6: Arizona’s (3-0) only notable win is a six point win against Kansas State. This blog has categorized KSU as dead. So that win is irrelevant. Both teams are coming off a bye. Now, ISU (4-0) also beat Kansas State this year, 24-21, in Ireland. But I’m choosing to put my faith in Matt Campbell to have his guys ready against an inferior Big 12 opponent.

Alabama at Georgia -3: Nick Saban is not walking through that door. First off, Bama has not been a road dawg since 2015, ironically against Georgia. I’ve been on Bama’s side in this blog since its week 1 loss to Florida State. But their next two wins were against Who-The-Fuck-Cares University and a dead Wisconsin team. We got Bama at the right time, now it’s time to let them go. Yes, Kirby is 1-6 vs Bama in his career, but there is a ‘1’ in that record. My prediction: that old hag from Guntersville, AL ends up back in the news calling for DeBoer’s job once again.

Oregon +3.5 at Penn State: I don’t know who wins, but I don’t think the winner wins by more than three points. I thought about doing a Penn State 1Q ml bet, a successful bet many times last year, but I don’t think Oregon is gonna be that phased by the White Out. I know it’s the cross-timezone trip for Oregon, and they didn’t cover at Northwestern a couple weeks ago. We also know James Franklin doesn’t win these games often (4-20 vs top 10 teams). We know Charlie Kirk was a big Oregon fan and apparently was gonna be at this game and there will be free TPUSA shirts passed out at the game. We also know this game is just gonna fuckin rock to watch. I don’t trust Penn State being favored by this much. That’s all this is.

UMass at Missouri -44.5: I really like this. Mizzou (4-0) has looked good. Wins of 61-6 and 52-10 over nobodys. 42-31 over Kansas and a 29-20 SEC-opening win over South Carolina. Mizzou also has a bye next week before going to Tuscaloosa. UMass (0-3) is not good. Mizzou HC Eli Drinkwitz will run it up.

BYU -6.5 at Colorado: BYU (3-0) doesn’t have any big wins, they’ve just done what they’ve been expected to do. Colorado (2-2) seems confused and I think Coach Prime doesn’t care as much with his boys in the NFL now. I think the Buffs have like three quarterbacks which means they don’t have one. I imagine a lot of people will take Colorado here cause they’re a home dawg vs a top 25 team. This blog is not doing that.

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SEC Insider Picks of the Weekend

Last week: 2-1 / 2025 record: 4-8 / Since 2022: 58-67-3

*the following is verbatim*

Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (1-3 in 2025 / 15-16-1 overall): Cincinnati at Kansas -4.5 – UC lost a home game in Kansas this season already. Do we really think they can win one on the road? Daniels and company too much for the Bearcats.

Kentucky at South Carolina -6.5 – Gamecocks need one here and you gotta fade UK. I think they stink. Give me Lanorris and the Cocks in a get right game at home. Too much Sandstorm

Tennessee -7.5 at Mississippi State – I really do think the Vols are a playoff team. They should have beat Georgia. Lots of points incoming.

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Prem League Advisor Pick of the Weekend

2025 record: 2-1 / Since 2023: 10-7

*the following is verbatim*

Liverpool Double Chance + Man City -1.5 -119

I can’t not include Liverpool in the pick this week. I almost went Liverpool ML but think palace at home could scratch out a draw. This City v. Burnley game could get out of hand. Anytime I see a favorite this big it’s normally a blowout by half. City just needs to hold on and not let any back door goals in.

I’m tired.

Tired from work. Twice this week, the second I stepped back in the office coming back from a story, I had to rush out to cover a car crash. This eliminates about an hour of time I have to work on a story. It’s not fun, but it’s the job. Not complaining, just informing. I didn’t leave work last night (this morning) until after 12:30 a.m. ET, didn’t get to bed until about 2:30 a.m. ET yet I woke up at 8 a.m. ET to get this blog done. I’ve worked about 30 hours in three days. Again, not complaining.

Tired from winning. Week 1 was not great, but Week 2 we went 12-11-1 and last week we went 9-6. Winning isn’t exhausting, but the process of providing winners can be. It takes many hours to select the games I bet on each week. Couple that with working an average of 10 hours a day, I don’t have a lot of free time. Instead of going to the beach or making new friends or going to a bar or going to the movies or having sex, I’m putting money in your pockets and mine. Not complaining, just informing.

Tired of the SEC Insider. He/She/Whomever is 2-7 on the year. The mouthwatering pick is 0-3. Last week, I tailed the Insider on each pick cause I wanted to bring some confidence back to this individual. MISTAKE. If I wasn’t so kind and caring and supportive of the Insider, we could’ve went 9-3 and put ourselves over .500 on the year. Not complaining, just informing.

And then there’s the Prem League Advisor. Does anybody actually care about the Advisor’s picks? I don’t know. But we got back on track with a win last week. They’ll try to get us started on a good note Saturday with another parlay.

Speaking of last week…

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Where Griff was WRONG:

Trusting the SEC Insider: Georgia at Tennessee TT u22.5, Vanderbilt at South Carolina -3 and Texas A&M at Notre Dame -6.5.

Florida +7.5 at LSU: “At Florida on the road in SEC games with a single-digit spread, Napier is 3-1 ATS.” – Make it 3-2. I felt pretty spoiled with the way this game was going, but five (5) INTs from DJ Lagway and one hell of a final run from LSU were too much for the Gators. Napier isn’t lasting the whole season.

Where Griff was RIGHT:

The other two games where I was wrong: Oklahoma at Temple +23.5 (“I don’t recommend tailing me on this one.”) and Ohio at Ohio State -28.5 (“It does feel like (the spread) should be a lot higher, though.”). I was right to have bad feelings about those games, but I took em anyway. Just can’t help myself sometimes.

The Toretto, Wisconsin at Alabama -20.5: “I just think Bama is who we thought they were before Week 1.” – Luke Fickell is also not the answer at Wisconsin.

Pitt at WVU +7.5: “Last week was the preparation. This week is the execution.” – The trap game. West Virginia loses at Ohio U. the week before, then upsets Pitt in the Backyard Brawl. Too easy.

Let’s get to this week’s picks.

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Last week: 9-6 / In 2025: 15-16-1 / Since 2022: 269-260-5

Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (In 2025: 1-2 / Overall: 18-15-1): Arkansas at Memphis +7.5 – This is a huge game for Memphis (3-0). Their HC Ryan Silverfield is 5-2 ATS as a home dawg since 2020. Arkansas had a chance to take down Ole Miss last week, who played their backup QB, and couldn’t do it. Now they have to go on the road to the place where Johnny Manziel played his last professional football game on American soil (for the AAF Memphis Express, March 30th, 2019, when he got concussed by his own teammate and was eating McNuggets in the tunnel during the 3rd quarter, and his team lost to the Orlando Apollos, 34-31. Don’t believe me? I was there.) and win by a touchdown? No thanks.

Texas Tech at Utah UNDER 57.5 – This is the first real game for each team. Both are 3-0 but their opponents’ combined record is 1-11. Kickoff is at 10 a.m. local time. I don’t wanna bet against Texas Tech just yet but this also feels like a good time to remember that Kyle Wittingham wins these kinds of games at Utah. End of the day, I think both offenses will need to adjust to facing better defenses. Could also be a good spot for a 1H under bet.

Maryland +10 at Wisconsin – I just think Wisconsin is cooked. They’re already talking about this being a must win game. The Badgers may still have their backup QB starting this game and the Maryland freshman QB has been pretty good. Maryland’s coach is 12-22 ATS as a road underdog. Fickell is 3-7 ATS as a home favorite of eight (8) points or more.

SMU +7 at TCU – The Iron Skillet rivalry is coming to an end because TCU chose to end it. They’ve played over 100 times. TCU didn’t want to keep it going. I know nothing about these teams besides TCU beating North Carolina in Week 1. This is a spite bet.

UNLV at Miami (OH) +2.5 – The Rebels are crossing three timezones to play in Oxford, Ohio? For a noon kickoff? Whoever scheduled this game for UNLV needs to be fired. Love and Honor.

Oregon State +35.5 at Oregon 1Q -9.5 – Oregon State (0-3) may be the worst team in the country, but this is still a rivalry game, and five touchdowns is a lot. Oregon is also at Penn State next weekend. Dan Lanning wants to leave this game clean. They jump out to a big lead early and the backups will be in after halftime.

Auburn at Oklahoma -7 – Oklahoma has looked like the real deal this year. Revenge game for Auburn QB Jackson Arnold but it would be different if Auburn were the home team here. Kinda like Duke’s Darian Mensah facing Tulane last week, Arnold won’t be able to handle the pressure.

Michigan -2.5 at Nebraska – I like Poggi-ball. He let Bryce Underwood play his brand of football last week and it worked. Sure, it was against Central Michigan, but it worked. Meanwhile, Nebraska has lost 27 straight games vs ranked teams. Dylan Raiola looks good, but Nebraska hasn’t played any serious competition this year. I wouldn’t be shocked if Michigan wins this game by two touchdowns.

Purdue at Notre Dame -25.5 – The Irish need to win convincingly for the rest of the season, and it has to start here. This is THE pick to fade of mine this weekend.

Kent State at Florida State -45.5 – Since last year, Kent State is 0-3 ATS as underdogs of at least 45 points. They’ve lost those games (at Penn St, Texas Tech and Tennessee) by a combined score of 189-14.

Temple +23.5 at Georgia Tech – I think what happened to Temple last week against Oklahoma will help them in the long run. A stat I read: GT HC Brent Key is 15-6 ATS as an underdog but 4-6-1 ATS as a favorite (2-5-1 ATS at home).

West Virginia at Kansas -12.5 – This blog is putting WVU through the gauntlet. Huge letdown at Ohio followed by emotional win at home vs Pitt followed by away game at a rival. Rich Rodriguez is 15-27 ATS as a road dawg, worst record in college football. I don’t think they have it in em to keep this game close.

Florida +7.5 at Miami (FL) – This line should be A LOT bigger. I learned my lesson last week taking OSU -28.5 vs Ohio U.

Illinois at Indiana -6 – This is the first IU game I will be able to watch all year. I gotta take the Hoosiers to cover.

Michigan State at USC OVER 55.5 – Both teams can score. It’s an 8 pm PT/11 pm ET kickoff so maybe Michigan State’s defense will be a little sleepy. I’m gonna wake up Sunday morning with an easy win in the bank.

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SEC Insider Picks of the Weekend

Last week: 0-3 / 2025 record: 2-7 / Since 2022: 56-66-3

*the following is verbatim*

Alright – [sic] time re-evaluate. I’ve watched nothing. I’ve read nothing. I’ve consumed nothing. We’re going strictly off of what my eyes have seen. And I know these eyes know ball. Or [sic] atleast they did once upon a time.

Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (0-3 in 2025 / 14-16-1 overall): Florida at Miami (FL) -7.5 – Canes might be the best team in the country. Things are bad for Florida. It’s not a matter of if, but when for Napier. Canes big.

Iowa -2.5 at Rutgers – my eyes after week 1 tell me Rutgers stinks. I think Iowa is scrappy. Give me the Hawkeyes

Illinois +6 at Indiana – Illinois impressed me against Duke. Indiana hasn’t played anyone. They’ve run it up against no one. Google me.

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Prem League Advisor Pick of the Weekend

Last week: 1-0 / 2025 record: 1-1 / Since 2023: 9-7

*the following is verbatim*

Brighton Double Chance + Liverpool ML -104

Sticking with the parlays [sic] these week and setting up a perfect Saturday for the lads. Liverpool v. Everton at 7:30 AM EST to start the morning off right. I think this match will be closer than a lot of people think but you can’t not bet on Liverpool at the moment. Parlay that into a 10:00 AM EST match of Brighton v. Tottenham and you’ve got yourself a morning. Brighton at home and Tottenham broke our hearts 2 weeks ago, I like our double chance.