Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (6-4-1): Ilinois at Michigan (-17.5)
Wednesday: EMU (+7.5) at Kent State: – WIN
Wednesday: Miami Ohio (+1) at Northern Illinois – WIN
Friday: USF (+14.5) at Tulsa – WIN
ULL (+24) at Florida State
Houston (+6) at ECU
Georgia (-22.5) at Kentucky
Texas at Kansas (+9)
Tennessee (-22.5) at South Carolina
New Mexico State (+29) at Mizzou
USC at UCLA (over 76.5)
SEC Insider picks of the weekend (3-1 last week, 21-17-1 overall):
Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (8-3):Georgia (-22.5) at Kentucky – “As stated UK is/are (sic?) frauds. Dawgs peaking at right time”
Tennessee (-22) at South Carolina – “Vols looking to add some much needed style points. Beamer and the cocks fading. Can the vols make the playoff? Need a big win here.”
Western Kentucky at Auburn (-5.5) – “Cadillac and the boys are playing spirited football. They want to finish in a high note. Line feels disrespectful. SEC”
We are still winning, folks. Last week we evened out a bit after that insane run of 29-9-1, but 9-7 in CFB is in the green and 6-6 in NFL, we’ll have ya. The SEC Insider (your guess is as good as mine) is back on track and the mouthwatering picks are hitting at such a clip that I’m going to drown if I keep winning off of em.
This week, we’re doing something special with the blog/article/post/you-name-it. All of our winnings this week are going to Caps For A Cause, a nonprofit organization committed to increasing skin cancer awareness. It was founded by a friend of mine, Bryce (Bruce) Demoret, “a soon to be doctor” (sick brag) that shares everyone on this planet’s affinity of absolutely hating cancer. A charitable organization that is close to me is N.I.C.K.’s Camp (Nothing’s Impossible for Cancer Kids), created by friends of my father and it’s been rolling on for maybe 30 years now. Pretty much everyone has a reason to believe in “FUCK CANCER”. So let’s beat that motherfucker named “cancer” into the ground and win every bet this weekend (excluding the Thursday night pick that lost) to support Caps For A Cause (or whichever cause you may support).
Let’s get to the picks.
CFB (9-7 last week, 76-53-1 overall):
Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (4-4-1): Texas Tech at TCU (-9) – I thought about the over (70.5) but I’m nervous about TTU holding up their end of the bargain. They got their ass kicked by Baylor last week (17 points, five INTs by three QBs). TCU can still play their way into the CFP. I feel good about this number. – WIN
Dooger Dem’s “Fuck Cancer” Game Of His Life: Michigan (-25) at Rutgers (Editor’s note: I’m adding this to my card, obviously) – WIN
(Thursday) Western Michigan at Bowling Green (-4.5) – bought the half. This opened at -1 but I still like it. Why? Because I think Western Michigan is just bad and they’re gonna have trouble scoring (16 points or less in 5 of 8 games while BGSU has scored less than 16 just twice this season). It’s a toss up. I want action on it. – LOSS
(Friday)Oregon State (+4.5) at Washington – Washington has been favored in every game this season (6-2 overall). They covered their first four games. They did not cover their last four games. I’m betting against Washington. – WIN
Air Force at Army (under 40.5) – idk what the stat is on the under in service academy games but it says to take the under, so I am. (Editor’s note: an article from the mainstream media on 12/9/21 has the under at 40-9-1 since 2005 in such games) – WIN
Kentucky at Mizzou (PK) – riding the Insider (see below) – LOSS
Maryland (+4.5)at Wisconsin – Maryland (6-2) has been an underdog once this season: +17 on the road at Michigan and they covered. Both teams coming off a bye last week. Wisconsin (4-4) beat Purdue two weeks ago. Wisconsin has not won two in a row this season. Maryland coach Mike Locksley is talking about what they can accomplish this season still. Wisconsin interim coach Jim Leonhard is talking about wanting to get the head coach job full-time (translation: he’s looking ahead to next year). – LOSS
Baylor (+3.5)at Oklahoma – there’s some mainstream bias involved with this pick. But also, Dave Aranda tried recruiting Brent Venables’ son to LSU when the former was coaching there but the young Venables chose Clemson instead. Grudge match? – WIN
Middle Tennessee State at Louisiana Tech(+2.5) – just three home games for Tech this season (they’ve covered all three). MTSU has been up and down all year (4-4). Tech has an extra day of rest after playing last Friday. – WIN
Oklahoma State at Kansas (over 64.5) – Kansas’ season is done but they’re still scoring (and giving up) a lot of points (scored at least 23 and given up at least 35 during three-game losing streak). IDK what happened to OK State last week but I don’t think they gut shutout again. I think this number is kinda low. – LOSS
UCF at Memphis (+3.5) – Memphis off a bye. In four home games this year they have three wins and a one point loss to Houston. UCF has only played on the road twice (win vs FAU and 21 point loss at ECU on 10/22). Home field matters in college. And UCF doesn’t know who their QB is yet. – LOSS
Texas (-2.5) at Kansas State – riding the Insider (see below) – WIN
Auburn at Mississippi State (-12.5) – riding the Insider (see below) – LOSS
Hawaii (+27.5) at Fresno State – a little bias in this pick but a little too many points here that Fresno is laying. The Bulldogs (4-4) have (1) win this season by that much: vs the 2-6 New Mexico Lobos two weeks ago. Hawaii is bad, but their last three road games (all losses) have been within 27.5 (they got killed at Michigan early in the season). This is the Teremana game of the Week. – LOSS
**7-7 this week (83-60-1 overall, Toretto’s picks are 5-4-1)**
SEC Insider picks of the weekend (3-1 last week, 16-14-1 overall):
*A note from the (anonymous) Insider:“The SEC Insider stands with the Jewish community and condemns all anti-semitism.”
Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (7-2):Texas (-2.5) at Kansas State – “Texas coming off that bye in a bounce back spot after dropping one to OK state. QB controversy in the Little Apple? Gimme the Horns.” – WIN
Kentucky at Mizzou (PK) – “As stated previously, UK (sic) is frauds. Going back to the well. (sic) Mizzous front gave Georgia fits a few weeks back and UKs OL is weak. Not a good recipe for the cats.” – LOSS
Tennessee at Georgia (-8) – “Something smells with this Georgia game. I don’t know what it is I smell but I can certainly smell something. Assume that means I do not have covid.” – WIN
Auburn at Mississippi State (-12.5) – “Total chaos on the plains with the Aubs. Interim Head Coach Cadillac Williams May let Tank carry it 50 times. Wouldn’t be surprised if the only play calls he installed are probably HB sweep and HB dive.” – LOSS
**2-2 this week (18-16-1 overall, mouthwatering picks are 8-2)**
That’s my record in college football since I made that promise about three weeks ago. We went 10-4 last week in CFB. NFL is 12-10 in that same span (4-3 last week). Not as flashy as the CFB picks but folks those are winning numbers. We’re gonna keep it rolling (loud) this week with more winners.
I got a wedding to go to on Saturday so I’ll try to update the blog with NFL picks but I’m not guaranteeing that. However, I am guaranteeing that I did my homework this week and we’ll win again.
Let’s get to the picks.
CFB (67-46-1 overall):
Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (3-4-1): Ohio State at Penn State (+15.5) – the last time OSU won this game by more than 16 points was in 2015 (38-10 in Columbus). Since then, games at Penn State had the Nittany Lions winning in ’16, lose by one in ’18 and lose by 13 in the covid year. The Bucs aren’t looking ahead to anything here and neither are the Nittany Lions.
ECU (+3) at BYU – after covering their first two games, BYU is 0-6 ATS. ECU is 2-1 ATS as underdogs but this is more about not trusting BYU.
Boston College at UCONN (+7.5) – this is a both teams suck game so I’m taking the points. UCONN, after losing big to Cuse, Michigan and NC State, have covered four straight games (including the NC State game). BC’s only win this year (of their two total wins) by more than 7 points was a 38-17 win (shoutout Basil and Ellen Prifti).
Miami (OH) at Akron (+8.5) – the Zips have covered twice in a row for me and this game is a lot like the last two. Why is Love and Honor laying 8.5 on the road? They beat Robert Morris by double digits but every other game has been a loss or a win by exactly three points.
Florida at Georgia (-22.5) – needed some convincing from the Insider to take this pick. It’s not a look ahead spot (Tennessee at Georgia is next week). This game matters to the Dawgs. It matters to Kirby (South Georgia native). Insider: “Oh man I think (Georgia) wins handily…(Georgia) is getting healthy…(Georgia’s) biggest rival. Take a gander at this.
New Mexico State (-2.5) at UMASS – mainstream bias pick of the week (need to keep track of these)
SMU at Tulsa (+2.5) – read something about Tanner Mordecai having a concussion so he might not play. Tulsa are 2-0 ATS as underdogs. I just have an inkling about this one
***LATE ADD***: Cincinnati at UCF (-0.5) – bought half
Northwestern at Iowa (under 37.5) – they can’t possibly go over this number, can they?
Colorado State (+27.5) at Boise State – this is an eye popping number. Boise is 5-2 but they haven’t won by 27 all year. CSU was the worst team in the country after four games but they’re getting better. Won two of the last three games, all decided by a combined 11 points. I just don’t see why Boise is laying this much (I clearly have a thing for making my picks based on that assessment)
Kentucky at Tennessee (-11.5) – bought the half. Another convincing pick from the Insider: “Night game in (sic) neyland I think they’ll be ready to go”
USC (-15.5) at Arizona – a little nervous about this one cause Arizona has a solid offense, bad season, could bring the energy for this game (the o/u is 76.5). But USC is off a bye (so is Arizona, for the record), they had the scare at Oregon State (who always plays the Trojans well) and USC lost the Utah game that Utah was just meant to win. Every other win has been by at least 16 points.
***LATE ADD***: Ole Miss (-2.5) at Texas A&M – took it after I saw the report of Jimbo canceling his production meeting with ESPN and his agent is in town
Pitt at North Carolina (-3) – can’t remember why I liked this game. This strategy worked last week, FYI (Editor’s note: I’m writing this at 8:30 am so no Teremana has been consumed, for the record)
MTSU at UTEP (-1.5)– there was some bias in this pick as well. However, I MTSU had that upset against a bad Miami team, they beat Colorado State (when they really sucked) and Texas State (?) early in the season. They’ve lost every game by at least 15 points. I’ll bet on the home team here.
SEC Insider picks of the weekend (13-13-1 overall):
Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (6-2):Arkansas (-3.5)at Auburn – “Harsin has lost the locker room. Portal going crazy. WPS my mouth is watering”
Cincinnati at UCF (-1.5)
Florida at Georgia (-22.5) – …continued analysis from above…“Jamon Dumas Johnson said this week they still have a bad taste in their mouth from 2020 and how those seniors went out with a loss there.”
Kentucky at Tennessee (-12) – …continued analysis from above…“My take still stands in Uk being frauds”
NFL (34-31-1 overall):
***above record includes Baltimore (+2.5) at Tampa Bay on TNF***
13-2 in college football. And one of those losses was the (anonymous) SEC Insider’s mouthwatering pick so I was really like 13-1 (Editor’s note: I will continue to follow the mouthwatering picks). Just looking back on why I made my picks last week I was so fucking smart. But it does scare me. Because that’s hard to duplicate and now I’m a little over confident (I took Georgia Tech -2.5 Thursday night and they lost 16-9). I gotta keep my head clear (kinda hard when I’m drinking Teremana while writing this), stick to the science (when applicable) and just do my thing (whatever that means).
NFL went 1-2, but I won in terms of units. I really should be tracking my picks that way but that’s too much math and the Finite (no, not fortnite) math classes at IU burned my brain in ways that I don’t ever want to talk about again. I put 5 units on Bengals -3 and Burrow to Chase saved the day for the win and cover. Then I took over in Chiefs-Bills and live lined Chiefs before their final drive (Mahomes INT) just cause I had some money to work with and wanted action on the game. That was a move that was reflective of CFB Week 5 & NFL Week 4 so I need to stray away from that.
With all that said, let’s get to the picks:
CFB (57-43-1 overall):
Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (3-3-1): Syracuse at Clemson (-13.5) – nice win for Cuse over NC State last week, but they’ve also beaten Wagner, Virginia (by 2), Purdue (by 3) and their only away game of the season was a win at (an improved ) UCONN team. One away game this season! Now they go to Clemson. Outside of the dome. DJ is getting a lot better, Clemson could be a playoff team, I’m not overthinking this – LOSS
Akron (+18.5) at Kent State – literally the same reason I picked Akron last week (+13.5 vs CMU). Both teams suck. Why is Kent State getting this many points? – WIN
Iowa atOhio State (-28.5) – this line has already moved to OSU -30. I read something about the Buckeyes getting healthy. Yeah Iowa’s got the good defense but both teams are coming off a bye. You think Ryan Day can’t figure this defense out? – WIN
Cincinnati (-3.5) at SMU – I’m mostly riding a friend of mine who seems to think UC rolls here. He’s slightly delusional but he’s been to this game at SMU before so I’ll trust him. UC coming off a bye too (though SMU played last Friday so they have an extra day of rest) – LOSS
Duke (+9)at Miami – I know Duke is fraudulent and they only beat Northwestern by 8, but each of their losses is by 8 or less points. After Miami’s first two sleeper games of the year (wins vs Bethune Cookman and Southern Missouri) they’re 0-4 against the spread and lost outright as favorites twice. I don’t trust the Canes. – WIN
Bowling Green (+6.5) at Central Michigan – can’t remember why I picked this one. I’d fade it (Editor’s note: was not drinking Teremana when I made this pick) – WIN
Marshall at James Madison (-12.5) – I like JMU in a bounce back game at home. They lost by 7 at a solid Georgia Southern team after getting to #25 in the polls. Back home for the first time in two weeks. I will say, Marshall has stayed within 10 points in each of their three losses (Editor’s note: was drinking Teremana when I made this pick) – LOSS
Boston College at Wake Forest (-20.5) – Wake Forest is an actual good team and Boston College is an actual bad team. Both teams off the bye, I’ll take the better team in every respect to win – WIN
Texas at Oklahoma State (over 60.5) – OK State with the points was on my mind but I think the total points is the better bet. Texas has played two great coaches/defenses in Bama and Iowa State and didn’t top 30 points. Every other game they’ve scored at least 34. Oklahoma State has at least 34 in each game and the over in their games has hit in four straight. – WIN
UCLA at Oregon (over 71.5) – kinda like OK State vs TCU last week, there’s so many points I just wanna be in on it. This game will be fun. (UCLA has 40 in every game besides one (32 in that one) and Oregon has at least 41 in each game besides the Georgia game) – WIN
Florida Atlantic at UTEP (+4) – mainstream bias pick of the week – WIN
Mississippi State at Alabama (-20.5) – bought the half point. If Bama loses this game, their season is over. I’m here to report that Bama’s season is not over. Bama has won this game by at least 24 points in four straight years. – WIN
Kansas State at TCU (-3.5) – rider – WIN
**went 10-3 Saturday, 10-4 on the week (updated CFB record: 67-46-1 overall…Toretto’s picks: 3-4-1)**
SEC Insider picks of the weekend (10-12-1 overall):
Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (5-2): Kansas State at TCU (-3.5) – “The TCU train keeps rolling. Can they win the (sic) big 12? Bearcat fans starting to think their transition to the Big 12 may not be as easy as they thought.” – WIN
Purdue at Wisconsin (-2.5) – WIN
Texas A&M at South Carolina (+3) – “Que (sic) Samdstorm.” (Editor’s note: this was not an initial pick by the Insider(no clue who it could be). I received the other three picks then replied ‘No SEC picks…🤔’ and this person responded ‘You’re right. I will add one. Gosh I’ve been in a slump’ and immediately responded with this pick” – WIN
UCLA (+6.5) at Oregon – “Bo Nix hasn’t fallen flat on his face in a while. Looking forward to true dual between him and DTR.” – LOSS
ATL at CIN (over 47.5) – Bengals offense is starting to come together (wouldn’t be surprised if they put up 30 again), their run defense sucks and the Falcons are the best running team in the league so they could steal a couple touchdowns there, mix in a couple field goals and we got it
GB at WAS (+4.5) – why not? Can’t trust the Packers to beat the breaks off anyone (beat Tampa by 2, Chicago on SNF and the Saints in week two by 10), Commanders coming off a win and extended rest and Taylor Heinecke could bring some energy to the offense
TB at CAR (+13.5) – this is a science pick and it’s more about not trusting the Bucs. Plus the Panthers aren’t tanking, they just don’t need CMC to win games
NYJ at DEN (1H u17.5) – read something about the weather being not great for the first half of this game and maybe Brett Rypien needs a half to get into rhythm
KC at SF (u49.5) – gonna be windy in the Bay Area, 49ers have a lock down defense, just feel like this will be a slow game
I promised last week that we’d get back on track, and right on track we are. 5-4-1 in college football and 7-5 in the NFL (*Editor’s note: it should be 7-4 in NFL but I decided to take a pick that someone I know designated as “the lock of the day” when it in fact was not a lock. That team failed to score any points. I will not be riding this person’s picks anymore)
Last week started as a disaster but a late Saturday afternoon winning streak sent me into the green and provided mostly good vibes for the rest of the weekend. And how about that SEC Insider (any guesses?) getting right on track? A good bounce back in the mouthwatering pick and the only blemish was trusting noted pervert Brent Musberger.
So we’re rolling along and throwing out winners for another week. Let’s get to the picks.
CFB (44-40-1 overall):
Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (2-3-1): Nebraska (+14) at Purdue – Purdue’s only game this year decided by more than 14 points? A 56-0 win over the now 1-4 Indiana State Cyclones. Nebraska lost their first game under their new head coach (?) but have won the last two. 14 points is just too much. – WIN
Central Michigan at Akron (+13.5) – A good old-fashioned science pick. They’re both 1-5 so idk why the hell Central Michigan is laying that much on the road. Maybe if I did some research it’d make sense but that’s not happening – WIN
Penn State at Michigan (-6.5) – bought the half. I’ll take the Wolverines in the Big House in a big game. Plus, Penn State has screwed me a couple times this year. – WIN
UCONN (+9.5) at Ball State – a little mainstream bias came with this pick but Ball State’s last three games have been decided by nine points or less and, after losing to Syracuse, Michigan and NC State in consecutive weeks, UCONN’s playing a more realistic schedule and has won the last two. – WIN
Alabama at Tennessee (+7.5) – bought the half. Have to bet on this game and I wanna believe in Rocky Top – WIN
Vanderbilt at Georgia (-38) – Dawgs have the bye week before playing Florida, I think they wanna keep the #1 ranking so they blow out Vandy easy – WIN
Oklahoma State at TCU (over 68) – this could be a bad play but it’s a fun one to bet on. At least 34 points in every game for OK State and at least 38 for TCU in every game. So the under will definitely hit. – WIN
Wisconsin (-7.5) at Michigan State – I don’t trust Mel Tucker to rally the troops for this one. He made some comments in a press conference about consistency and other coach-speak stuff. I think he’s fine with getting bought out from that $95 million contract and I’ll ride with the interim coach thing for Wisconsin again – LOSS
Memphis (+5.5) at ECU – mainstream bias. The source said five points is too much and, just looking at ECU’s schedule, they haven’t done anything great since that first game against NC State and that wasn’t even that impressive. Congrats, you beat USF by 20 points. I’ll ride with the bias – WIN
Mississippi State (-4)at Kentucky – always riding with the Insider – LOSS
*I will absolutely add to the card
Late adds:
Kansas at Oklahoma (over 65) – WIN
Iowa State (+15.5) at Texas – WIN
Monmouth at Maine (over 60.5) – Matthew 28:19 > Larry David says if you like lobster it doesn’t mean you should convince the world to eat lobster > the seafood capital state of the United States? Maine > it’s Homecoming for the Black Bears and they host Monmouth > Monmouth averages about 40 per game and nearly 500 yards of offense while Maine is averaging over 418 yards and 22 points per game over the last three – WIN
Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (5-1):Mississippi State (-4)at Kentucky – “I think (Kentucky) are one of the most overrated teams in the country with or without (Will Levis)” – LOSS
Penn State (+7) at Michigan – LOSS
Vanderbilt at Georgia (-38and over 56.5) – COVERED SPREAD, LOST OVER
USC at Utah (-3) – LOSS
BONUS GOLF PICK OF THE WEEK: Sepp Straka top-10 finish at the ZOZO thing – “Straka last 3 starts on Zoysia (?) grass (sic) 2,3,2″ (*Editor’s note: Straka is currently T-49 and Even after two rounds) – LOSS (*Editor’s note: I will no longer be accepting golf bets on this blog and I won’t count this as a loss against the overall record, it’s just a loss of trust)
Bengals (-3) at Saints – that’s it. The winnings from yesterday are going into this. Must win for the Who Deys. Saints’ top three receivers and Lattimore are out. Return to New Orleans for Burrow and Chase (and Collins). Burrow was wearing Chase’s national championship jersey into the superdome. Funny stat though: Andy Dalton is 2-0 vs the Bengals (Cowboys won in 2020 and Bears won in 2021).
**will probably take the over in Chiefs-Bills and some side on the SNF game**
Well last week sucked. The two games I felt were absolute locks (Georgia and Indiana) were in fact, not locks. It was a great start to the week with the Bengals taking care of business against the Dolphins (thoughts and prayers) but almost nothing went right after that. The Houston overs trend is dead (*Editor’s note: I wrote this before Houston-Memphis hit the over on Friday night), USC is no longer a ride or die pick, and some fool at my friend’s engagement party told me to trust the mainstream bias and take Virginia +2 against Duke. Final score? Vagina-17 Duke-38. Ya know, someone once told me, “Alcohol and mainstream bias is no way to go through life, son.” Truer words have never been spoken. (*Editor’s note: I took SMU on Wednesday night so we’re 0-1 this week)
College football finished 4-8.
I will say I made some smart picks. UTSA TT was easy, OU +11.5 (Ohio, Reid), and Kansas will be on the card once more this week.
NFL? Actually decent. 6-4-1 (BUF -3 pushed). Thought I did worse but a winning week is a winning week. Would love to do that again but it’ll be a negative start to the week with this Thursday night game making me want to drink another glass of Teremana (I took Broncos -3 and as I’m writing this it’s 12-9 Colts in OT)
(*Editor’s note: Nathaniel Hackett is a fucking idiot).
An important note: I think the week was destined to fail because I didn’t put in the effort on last week’s blog, and that’s on me. The SEC Insider (your guess is as good as mine) sent me two wrong lines and I only caught one of em. Just lazy by me.
I just want to say one thing.
To the fans and everybody in my blog’s Nation, I’m sorry, extremely sorry.
I promise you one thing, a lot of good will come out of this.
Let’s get to the picks.
CFB (39-37 overall)
Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (2-3): TCU at Kansas (+7) – I’m riding the Kansas train. TCU has beaten Colorado (one of the worst teams in the country), Texas State (?), an awful SMU team and Oklahoma (They’ll be good under Venables, just not this year). Kansas has been tested and will show out for this one. – PUSH
Texas at Oklahoma (over 65.5) – Red River rivalry – LOSS
Tennessee at LSU (+3) – riding with the Insider here – LOSS
Buffalo at Bowling Green (+2.5) – bought half point. Mainstream bias pick – LOSS
Kent State at Miami Ohio (+5) – this is me not trusting Kent State still. Love and Honor pick of the week – WIN
Wisconsin (-10.5) at Northwestern – Northwestern sucks. Mutual decision firing at Wisconsin this week. Feels like an easy win – WIN
**Late add: Utah at UCLA (over 64.5) – WIN
Kansas State at Iowa State (+1.5) – feels like a “Matt Campbell will get talked about in NFL circles again” type of game. Cyclones can absolutely win this – WIN
**Went 5-3-1 on Saturday. Updated record: 44-40-1 overall**
SEC Insider picks of the weekend (7-7-1 overall):
Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (4-1):Ole Miss (-17) at Vanderbilt – WIN
South Carolina (+6)at Kentucky – WIN
Tennessee at LSU (+3) – (sic) “a home team getting points, what’s better than that?” Musberger – LOSS
Quick write-up. CFB went 10-7 last week and NFL 5-4. SEC Insider’s mouthwatering picks are now 4-0. The Bengals came through in a huge spot against Miami. I took -4 and TT o26.5 so thank the lord for Teddy two (2) gloves finding an open Vonn Bell and Joe Burrow getting the job done at the end. I’ll probably tweet out the NFL picks once I get a good look at the Sunday slate. Onto the CFB picks:
CFB (35-28 overall):
Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (2-2): Georgia (-27.5) at Missouri – I had this Saturday night and the SEC Insider (remains anonymous) confirmed it. Dawgs kept Kent State too close last week so Kirby probably kicked their ass in practice. Mizzou had a devastating loss. UGA rolls.
Tulane at Houston (over 54.5) – just keep riding the Houston overs (4-0 this season)
UTSA (TT o34) at MTSU – let down game for MTSU after beating Miami and only time UTSA didn’t hit that number was when they scored 20 in a loss at Texas.
Michigan at Iowa (+11.5) – there’s just something about top 5 teams going to Kinnick Stadium (there is a stat but I’m not looking it up). Only thing that scares me is this isn’t a night game (11 am central kickoff)
Ohio (+11.5) at Kent State – Kent state gave their souls to try and win at Sanford Stadium. They’re in the graveyard like Spurrier’s visor
Northwestern at Penn State (-24.5) – Northwestern may be the worst power 5 team in the nation and they’re too focused on building smaller stadiums instead of covering spreads
Iowa State at Kansas (+3) – home dogs and Kansas might be for real
LSU (-7.5) at Auburn – Bryan Harsin probably pooped his pants after escaping for a win against Mizzou. He’s gonna have diarrhea this week. And LSU’s loss to Florida State is looking better and better each week
Indiana (+4.5)– at Nebraska – this has my science written all over it. Why is Nebraska favored in any game? Tom Allen is probably a fraud but he can beat Nebraska. And That former Nebraska coach who also called Tom Allen a fraud (“clown”) got skirted on social media for all the wrong reasons
Arizona State at USC (-24.5) – Toretto’s pick last week couldn’t get it done but Oregon State has a history of giving USC fits. Arizona State is a program in shambles. I’m not overthinking this one
SEC Insider picks of the weekend (7-4-1 overall):
Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (4-0): Georgia (-27.5) at Missouri – “mouthwatering faucet rain river” (*Editor’s note: ?)
Kentucky at Ole Miss (+7)
Oklahoma State at Baylor (-2) – *Editor’s note: the Insider texted me Baylor +2 but they, in fact, are not +2, so this is pending (*Editor’s note to the Editor’s note: “I had it flipped my fault”)… -2 it is
Big rebound last weekend. I think read into a little bit of bias when I was making picks a couple of weeks ago and it threw me off. Last week was like Martin Lawrence asking “The Sledgehammer” to teach Big Mac math, but instead of him actually teaching her math, “The Sledgehammer” taught me to ignore the math and trust the science that is me simply looking at a line and liking it. (Editor’s note: I understand not everyone will get that reference but “Rebound” is a classic 2000s comedy and I won’t apologize for it). Also, it’s a lot easier to make picks when you’re drinking (responsibly) and the group chat says they’re taking a side and you throw your money on that (still, responsibly).
All-in-all, we went 6-7 in college football and 5-4 on the NFL. That’s an even 11-11 (thanks Big Mac). The Toretto pick hit again and I’ll be following that algorithm again this week by taking USC. I actually went 1-3 on picks from the group chat so really I had a winning week if you look at it. The SEC Insider went 1-2 but the mouthwatering pick moved to 3-0 with the Dawgs rolling again.
NFL picks woulda looked a lot better if not for the AFC North looking like a train wreck. Save for the Steelers hitting the under, I was in the contingent of Browns & Ravens backers that just crushed our collective souls. And then the Bengals. At the end of the day, we rebounded. Let’s get to the picks:
CFB (25-21 overall):
Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (2-1): USC (-6.5)at Oregon State – ride or die
Maryland at Michigan (-16.5)
Clemson at Wake Forest (+7.5 AND over 55.5) – the science loved these picks from the jump.
Central Michigan at Penn State (-27.5)– CMU lost to some “USA” team a couple of weeks ago, so let’s call this America’s Pick of the Week.
Duke at Kansas (-7.5) – ESPN should’ve sent Jay Bilas and Dickie V to call this game with Reece Davis. Duke has played some bums so far so I’ll take my neighboring state.
James Madison (+7.5) at App. State – this would’ve been my “take it or leave it” pick if USC didn’t cover last week.
Indiana at Cincinnati (-16.5) – As an IU alum, I know when to not get your hopes up about Indiana football when things seem like they’re going in the right direction. I’ve had a lot of training as a Bengals fan.
Southern Miss. at Tulane (-12.5) – this is strictly betting against Brett Favre.
Vanderbilt at Alabama (-40.5) – negative publicity around Vandy and the science just loved this one.
Kansas State at Oklahoma (-12.5)– I think the Sooners are just really good and need to be favored by more in games against far inferior opponents. Translation: the line is too low.
Hawaii (+4.5)at New Mexico St. – these teams suck, this should be a pickem so take the points.
SEC Insider picks of the weekend (4-4-1 overall):
Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (3-0): Arkansas (+2.5)at Texas A&M – “what looks to be a big year for the Hogs playing in former Hog Jerry Jones (sic) palace? What could go wrong?”
Duke at Kansas (-7.5)
James Madison (+7.5) at App. State
NFL (*8-12 overall):
*Browns -4.5was the TNF pick*
BAL (-2.5)at NE – this line is too fishy to not take. I might be dumb.
BUF (-4.5 AND over 52.5) at MIA – taking the over because you have to in this game and I ultimately think the Bills are the best team in the league.
KC (-5.5)at IND – again, too fishy so I’m taking the bait.
GB AT TB (under 42.5) – trust the science
SF (-1.5)at DEN – Jimmy G back under the lights feels right and I think Hackett won’t be able to handle primetime again. In fact, Hackett might be a fraud.
Last week could not have gone any better. The team went 13-6 and Dom Toretto’s pick (USC -32.5) was an easy hit.
There were a few late adds from the initial blog (NC -11.5, Michigan -30.5, Troy +21.5 and the over in LSU-FSU). Those picks went 2-2. Also, the SEC Insider (whoever that may be) went 1-0-1. Shoulda bought the half point to bring Arkansas down to -6.5 like my psycho ass. And instead of “toying with the idea” of taking Florida ml, the kid (could also be an adult) needs to learn to just pull the trigger.
Anyway, I didn’t do much research for Week 1 so I’ll do the same for this week. The SEC Insider and I (good grammar) are on the opposite side of a few games so we’ll see who’s the smarter one after this week. I’ll point out the mainstream bias in my picks when they happen, but let’s get into it.
Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (1-0): Alabama (-20.5) at Texas
I think Bama wins by three touchdowns. Saban is gonna give Sarkisian a “welcome to the SEC” moment. He lost to Jimbo and Kirby last season, first times he’s ever lost to a former assistant (I believe), and I think he knows that and wants to prove a point here.
Louisville at UCF (-6.5) – there was a little mainstream bias in this one.
Arkansas State at Ohio State (-44.5) – also this one.
Tennessee at Pitt (+6.5) – my friend’s sibling went Tennessee. This friend told me their sibling drafted Gronk in fantasy earlier this week. I took Pitt immediately.
Appalachian State at Texas A&M (-18.5) – I don’t think App St. can put together a competitive game in College Station after what happened last week.
Houston at Texas Tech (over 62.5) – these two teams just scream “over”…so I bet they combine for 20 total points. I’m doing it anyway.
ODU at ECU (over 51.5) – there’s some mainstream bias here but I also think ECU will go for it a lot more after their kicker absolutely blew chunks last week (be nice Griff).
USC (-7.5) at Stanford – Dom Toretto is the poster boy for “ride or die” so I’m rolling with them again.
Baylor at BYU (over 53.5) – Big Cat’s Game of the Year.
SEC Insider picks of the weekend:
Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (1-0): Tennessee (-6) at Pitt
Alabama at Texas (+20)
South Carolina (+8.5) at Arkansas – I will probably add this one to my card
Kentucky at Florida (-6)
(*Editor’s note: The Insider told me their picks after I already put mine in so that’s why the lines are different on Tenn-Pitt and Bama-Texas)
Dun dun duh-duh-dun dun…duh-duh-duh-duh-duh-duh-duh-duh-DUN.
Can’t believe the NFL is back. I’m excited to get disappointed by my fantasy team and gamble with money I shouldn’t be gambling with (responsibly). College football Week 1 was a success, from both a viewing perspective and (allegedly) my venmo account. Now it’s time for the NFL to follow suit.
Hard Knocks was pretty good and it got me thinking about ATS records for teams that were on the show, only for their Week 1 games. I couldn’t find that specific stat anywhere so I did the research myself, using Pro Football Reference (*Editor’s note: Tampa Bay was on Hard Knocks in 2017 but their season opener against the Dolphins was postponed because of Hurricane Irma, so I did not count their first game that was played in Week 2 (in which they covered as favorites and the under hit)):
Hard Knocks team ATS in Week 1: 8-7-1
HK outright wins as underdogs: 2
Opponent outright wins as underdogs: 5
Under is 11-5
2001: Ravens, -10.5, o/u 33.5…Final CHI (6) at BAL (17)
2002: Cowboys, -8.5, o/u 33.5…Final: DAL (10) at HOU (19)
2007: Chiefs, +3, o/u 38…Final: KC (3) at HOU (20)
2008: Cowboys, -6, o/u 48.5…Final: DAL (28) at CLE (10)
2009: Bengals, -5, o/u 41…Final: DEN (12) at CIN (7) (Brandon Stokley can kiss-my-anthia)
2010: Jets, -1, o/u 36.5…Final: BAL (10) at NYJ (9)
2012: Dolphins, +13.5, o/u 41.5…Final: MIA (10) at HOU (30)
2013: Bengals, +3, o/u 41.5…Final: CIN (21) at CHI (24)
2014: Falcons, +3, o/u 51.5…Final: NO (34) at ATL (37) in OT
2016: Rams, -2.5, o/u 43…Final: LAR (0) at SF (28)
2018: Browns, +3.5, o/u 41…Final: PIT (21) at CLE (21)
2019: Raiders, +3, o/u 42.5…Final: DEN (16) at OAK (24)
2020: Chargers, -2.5, o/u 41.5…Final: LAC (16) at CIN (13)
2020: Rams, -1, o/u 52…Final: DAL (17) at LAR (20)
2021: Cowboys, +8.5, o/u 52…Fina:DAL (29) at TB (31)
2022: Lions (+4) vs. Eagles, o/u 48.5
Lions are at home so they seem like a sexy pick, especially cause Hard Knocks teams have covered in five straight Week 1 games, but I just can’t do it. However, I will be confidently betting the under.
More picks are below some futures I’m taking.
Seahawks Under 5.5 Regular Season Wins (+115)
I am so down on the Seahawks this year. I think they may be the worst team in the league. Do you really trust Geno Smith and Drew Lock?
Bobby Wagner is gone, that’s gonna hurt the morale for the defense and the locker room. Plus money here is a steal.
Bengals Over 10 Regular Season Wins (even money)
If the Bengals don’t win 11 games this year then something didn’t go right. (*Editor’s note: Rams o/u is 10.5 I think, which is appealing, but this Stafford elbow stuff freaks me out so I’m staying away from that)
AFC North winner: Bengals (+120)
Why are the Ravens the outright favorite? WHO DEY.
AFC South winner: Jaguars (+640)
Just doing this one for fun. Maybe Doug Pedersen will be the difference. Maybe Trevor Lawrence makes a Joe Burrow-esque second-year leap. Maybe the Colts and Titans underperform.
NFC North winner: Vikings (+230)
This is a mainstream bias pick. If the hype around Kevin O’Connell is real and the Kirk Cousins/Mike Zimmer drama was bringing the team down, this could very well happen. This is also me banking on Aaron Rodgers really missing a true #1 wideout.
MVP: Jalen Hurts (+2100)
Also a bit of a mainstream bias pick but this is really good value.
Onto to the *tentative picks:
Bills at Rams (ml +115) & o52 – I forgot to buy the half point but it’s always the over for the first game of the season. Rams ml because I’m pretty sure McVay’s got a great record when he gets extra time to prepare and it’s a home dog.
Dom Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” NFL Pick of the Weekend: Steelers at Bengals (-6.5) – WHO DEY.
Saints at Falcons (+5.5) – I could absolutely see the Falcons getting wrecked but I’ll tell ya why I like them here: Dennis Allen has the bad HC record (like 8-28, I think (*Editor’s note: yeah I stopped doing actual research cause it took me a while to look up those Hard Knocks numbers and I need to go to bed)) and Arthur Smith will throw everything he’s got into this game because the Falcons won’t have a good chance to win much more after this one.
Eagles at Lions (Under 48.5) – Following the numbers on this one.
Broncos (-6.5) at Seahawks – Again, I just don’t like Seattle at all this year. Give me the Russ revenge game and LET’S RIDE.
It just feels different. I woke up this (Thursday) morning, September 1st, with an extra pep in my step. Whenever I work the midnight shift, I’ll wake up the next morning at 8am, open up my right eye (it takes a few minutes for the left eye to start functioning), scroll the phone for about a half hour, finally get up, make some coffee and start my day (i.e. sit on my couch for an hour and watch the Dan Patrick Show). But that wasn’t the case today. No, sir. Today I woke up, opened both of my eyes and scrolled the phone for about 20 minutes before making some coffee and staring at the board (with DP on in the background). I had a good week 0, going 3-1, which is important for two (2) reasons: I can’t afford to gamble so I have to win and that gave me some confidence when looking at the board this week. There’s very little mainstream bias in my picks, mostly gut feelings, so we shall see. Below my picks I will have my SEC insider’s picks of the weekend. Happy college football Week 1 everybody. (Editor’s note: I’ll almost always buy a half point because I hate pushing and I’m paranoid enough to think the whole number will always hit)
Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week: Rice at USC (-32.5)
WVU (+7.5) at Pitt
Ball St. at Tennessee (-35.5)
Houston at UTSA (over 61.5) – bought half point
Oregon at Georgia (-16.5) – bought half point
Cincinnati at Arkansas (-6.5) – bought half point
Texas St. at Nevada (ml -115)
MTSU at James Madison (-5.5)– bought half point
Army at Coastal Carolina (over 53.5)– bought half point
UMass at Tulsa (over 59)
Late add: Miami (OH) at Kentucky (-16.5)
Georgia St. at South Carolina (-12.5)
Notre Dame at Ohio St. (-16.5) – bought half point
*Late add: ND-OSU o58.5 – bought half point
Boise St. (ml +120) at Oregon St.
SEC Insider picks of the weekend:
Mouth Watering Pick of the Week: Georgia -17
Cincinnati at Arkansas (-7)
“I am toying with the idea of Florida ml (+125)” at home vs. Utah
It was just one of those days when you wake up don’t wanna do shit. However, I did go for a hike after the third movie to get my daily dose of Vitamin D (sidebar: I think nature is cool except for everything that nature has to offer i.e. spider webs, the sound of something moving through the woods then you look over and it’s just a squirrel running, the thought of a bear/snake/vulture/sex offender appearing out of nowhere to challenge you, walking into a spider web, etc.). Here are my thoughts on those movies:
S#!%house, or, Shithouse (2020): I first heard about this when Cooper Raiff went on the Bill Simmons podcast. Can’t believe it took me this long to see it. Raiff is the star/director/writer/producer/editor of the small-budget film with this description: “A lonely college freshman forges a strong connection with his resident assistant during a fraternity party.” It’s simple but there’s a lot to take away from it. His next movie may be better than this one.
Cha Cha Real Smooth (2022): This is Cooper Raiff’s next movie. Here’s the synopsis: “A young man who works as a Bar Mitzvah party host strikes up a friendship with a mother and her autistic daughter.” Dakota Johnson is the mother and she is a perfect partner for Raiff. Just a really good movie.
Army of Thieves (2021): It’s a prequel to Army of the Dead, the Zack Snyder zombie-heist movie starring Dave Bautista, and was actually pretty good. The storytelling is good, it’s kind of funny, but most importantly, actor/director Matthias Schweighöfer made me appreciate his character in Dead a lot more. (You can enjoy this movie without watching Army of the Dead)
Not Okay (2022): A legit good movie. It’s not like Denis Villeneuve-good or Oscar worthy but it’s good. Zoey Deutch is the ideal actress for this generation. Dylan O’Brien is hilarious and plays his cringe-worthy character to a ‘T’ (shoutout to American Assassin, btw).
Deep Water (2022): Eh. It’s a mystery-thriller-romance thing that’s not bad but I didn’t like it like I thought I would. I think it was adapted from a book or a play and it’s easy to see that (sidebar: I hate movies that were originally written as plays despite really wanting to like them, see Killer Joe). Stay for Ben Affleck and Ana de Armas.
“The Rehearsal” on HBO is the new funniest show on TV.
I’m on the record saying “Nathan For You” is the funniest TV show ever made and I stand by it. Nathan Fielder just gets comedy. I heard this on a podcast but can’t remember who said it but this person had an analogy that went: “The Rehearsal” is to “Nathan For You” what “Better Call Saul” is to “Breaking Bad” and that is correct. I don’t know if “The Rehearsal” will be better than Nathan Fielder’s first act but it is good because of what came before it.
I was recently awarded the #1 pick in my fantasy football draft.
I’m nervous. I’m looked at as inferior in my league because of my ineptitude to win. I know: you don’t care. Moving on.
I’m looking at NFL regular season win totals.
I love Seattle u5.5 and I got it at +115. I think that is the lock of the season. No Russell Wilson, Chris Carson retiring, stacked NFC West…just take it and don’t look back. I kinda like the Lions u6.5 and I feel like the Vikings could be a playoff team this year but I’m not as confident about taking them to win 10 games. Also, I hate it, but Steelers o7.5 is a good bet. Mike Tomlin just knows how to win.
The Reds blew it up again.
I’m not happy about it but at least they did it the right way. You get some top prospects from the Mariners and Twins and some other guys from some other teams for some other players you weren’t going to keep for long. Great. I hate betting on prospects to turn into actual major league talent but the Reds have all the best shortstops in the game in their farm system so someone has to pan out. Now they won’t try to compete for the playoffs for another 2-4 years and when they don’t make it they’ll trade Jonathan India and Tyler Stephenson and probably Hunter Greene and I’m already getting prepared for that. Thankfully the Bengals got their shit together and are actually trying to win. (Sidebar: I’ll be rooting for the Mariners the rest of the way after their trade for Curt Casali.)
Dude Perfect will provide and alternate stream for “Thursday Night Football” on Amazon.
I moved to Farmington in May of 2021 from Loveland, Ohio (a tad north of Cincinnati). Before that I spent a couple years working in football video departments for the Cincinnati Bengals, Tampa Bay Vipers (XFL), and Orlando Apollos (AAF). I am a graduate of Indiana University – Bloomington in 2018 with a degree in sports broadcasting. I had a dedicated mentor who always challenged me to work hard and improve my skills. I earned the opportunity to call numerous sports and gained a tremendous amount of experience.
In my spare time, I like checking out local bars or savoring a nice glass (or two) of bourbon or Teremana. I love a good movie (anything from the Fast & Furious to Prisoners to Hot Rod) or a TV show to binge (I own the world record for watching Game of Thrones in the shortest amount of time).
I placed some futures in my Week 1 blog. There was more bad than good…
Ohio State: under 10.5 wins (-140): “Kinda shocked it was -140 to the under. I thought I would be a contrarian with this pick. They went all in last season, Last Dance-style, and it worked but the follow-up is usually underwhelming in these situations. I think they lose three games.” – Big miss.
Penn State: over 10.5 wins (-105): “They’re trying to be this year’s Buckeyes. They plucked DC Jim Knowles from Columbus, Allar is back, they got a bunch of dudes who returned instead of going to the draft. Everyone doubted Ryan Day the same way they are doubting James Franklin. I’m not going to ignore the similarities. Not picking them to win it all, but if their only loss is to tOSU, they hit this number.” – B1G miss.
Vanderbilt: under 5.5 wins(-125): “Last year was cute. Everyone has the book on Pavia and Co. now. Vandy is going back to the shitter of the SEC.” – That didn’t turn out well.
Alabama: over 9.5 wins (-120): “Even after last year, they’re still Alabama. Deboer gets his OC Ryan Grubb back, who he worked with at Washington when Penix was the QB. The Bama QB Simpson has been riding the pine for two years and got a chance to learn Deboer’s system. It wouldn’t shock me if they go 12-0.” – 10-2 (as of now) but we’ll take that!
Now to last week’s games…
Where Griff was WRONG:
Miami (FL) at Pitt +7: “I’m going to keep riding the ‘Duz Cruise.’ The only game Pitt has not covered since switching QBs was against Notre Dame, the game Narduzzi said didn’t matter. Miami will lose, Notre Dame will win their game, making things easier on the CFP Committee.” – Miami won 38-7.
UAB at Tulsa -9.5: “UAB is bad vibes. They got guys stabbing their own teammates, only 3-8 ATS and they haven’t covered in four straight…Feel free to fade, but it’s trouble in paradise for the Blazers.” – UAB won 31-24.
LSU at Oklahoma -10: “I’m not sure how LSU is gonna score in this game. They’re averaging 15 ppg since BK got fired. Now, I don’t think Oklahoma puts up a lot of points either. Also, I’m too much of a pussy to take the UNDER 36.5. But Oklahoma will win 24-9.” – Should’ve taken the under. OU won 17-13.
Where Griff was RIGHT:
Texas A&M at Texas +2.5: “…I think Texas A&M has not been tested by a complete team since playing Notre Dame more than two months ago. Texas is not complete. But they are more capable than the rest of the shit fucks the Aggies have been playing the last couple months.” – Texas won 27-17.
Cincinnati at TCU -3.5: “The Cardiac Cats are in full-on cardiac arrest. Losers of 3 straight, SU and ATS. UC fans will be calling for Scott Satterfield’s job again this offseason.” – TCU won 45-23.
Virginia Tech at Virginia -8.5: “It’s not the James Franklin era yet. I think UVA has a little chip on their shoulder, too…Virginia was +5.5 at Duke last week and won 34-17. I think they feel disrespected by that line…Virginia wins 31-11.” – Virginia did win by 20 points, 27-7.
Now, let’s get to this week’s picks.
Last week: 12-12 / In 2025: 114-103-6 / Since 2022: 368-347-10
Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (In 2025: 5-10 / Overall: 22-23-1): B1G: Indiana +4 vs OSU (in Indianapolis, IN) – You thought.
Sun Belt: Troy at James Madison -23.5 – The Dukes need all the style points they can get.
Conference USA: Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State +2.5 – Jax State is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS at home this season. They already beat Kennesaw State this season, on November 15th, 35-26. I don’t know anything else about these teams.
AAC: North Texas -2.5 at Tulane – This blog has enjoyed the fruits of betting on the Mean Green for a while now. I’m not stopping now.
Mountain West: UNLV +4.5 at Boise State – Another game I don’t know anything about. Boise has beaten UNLV 9 straight times, including earlier this season in Boise, 56-31. Both teams are 5-1 ATS this year. Whatever.
Big 12: BYU vs Texas Tech -12.5 (in Arlington, TX) – Like North Texas, I just can’t turn away from betting on TTU. They have covered every game that QB Behren Morten has started. Why will it change this week?
MAC: Miami (OH) +2.5 vs Western Michigan (in Detroit, MI) – Love and Honor. Since 2005, in this conference championship game, dawgs are 14-5-1 ATS.
SEC: Georgia vs Alabama +2.5 (in Atlanta, GA) – Kirby has a Bama problem (1-7 SU and 3-5 ATS vs the Tide). Georgia didn’t even wanna be in this game either. Playing in the SEC Championship feels like a punishment. Bama wants to be here.
ACC: Duke vs Virginia -3.5 (in Charlotte, NC) – I like where my head was at with Virginia last week: they’re playing like they’ve been disrespected all year. Hypothetically, Duke winning would be funny because it means the ACC would probably be left out of the playoff. Realistically, Duke is not going to win, or cover. Virginia wins by two touchdowns.
SEC Insider Picks of the Weekend
Last week: 2-1 / 2025 record: 22-20 / Since 2022: 76-79-3
*the following is verbatim*
One last dance. All of the marbles on the line. All you fuckers counted us out. It got so bad that the Advisor and I were trying to figure out ways to kill ourselves off of this blog. Griff even threatened to expose our identity if we didn’t shape up. We scratched, we clawed. Now we have a chance to go out as winners, or [sic] atleast as .500 bettors…
Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (6-7 in 2025 / 20-20-1 overall): Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State +2.5 – “What’s better than a home team getting points?” – Brent Musburger. I love this Jacksonville State team. They say it’s hard to beat the same team twice. That theory be damned. Cocks win The C-USA Title.
Miami (OH) +2.5 vs Western Michigan – Miami topped Western Michigan back in October. New QB at the [sic] healm for the Red Hawks. Same result incoming. 3rd straight MAC Championship for Miami. Do they start to build the statue for Coach Chuck Martin when he brings this one home?
Georgia -2.5 vs Alabama – As I’ve always said, it’s hard to beat the same team twice. Kirby Smart is 3-0 when facing a team for the 2nd time in a season. both teams are banged up. I’ve been down on Georgia but looking back, Bama played damn near perfect to beat them the first go round. Dawgs.
Ohio State -4 vs Indiana – I just think the Buckeyes have more horses here on both sides of the ball. This should be a great game but at the end of the day, defense wins championships. Buckeyes D should slow down the O and the Buckeyes O should score plenty. I’m not buying the distractions with Hartline leaving. Ryan Day is too good of a coach to let that happen.
Prem League Advisor Pick of the Weekend
2025 record: 5-6 / Since 2023: 13-12
*the following is verbatim*
Liverpool ML -120
Now most people would say, “Well since AI picked a winner last week, let’s go back to AI.” Let me tell you something, run from AI, build hard skills, escape the matrix, it’s a bubble.
Anyway, Liverpool has been garbage recently and I think we are getting some value here. Leeds is on my “Never bet again” list so this is a perfect storm. Let’s get 3 in a row and end the season strong
For Joe Burrow, telling the haters and losers to “Kiss-my-anthia” and delivering the Bengals a Thanksgiving win over the Ravens (h/t the defense).
For Labatt Blue, the beer I consumed while sitting at Remie’s Tavern after working 8.5 long, hard, strenuous hours on Thanksgiving Day.
For 4-wheel drive, for which our company cars are equipped with that allowed me to navigate my way through a literal blizzard the last two days while still finding a way to do my job.
For snow tires, for which my 2016 Toyota Corolla is now equipped with that makes traversing through 10-15 inches of snow and 55 mph winds much easier.
For myself, for not turning into Edward Snowed-in in the midst of an actual fucking blizzard.
For this blog, for providing all of you a total record of 15-6-1 on picks last week (h/t SEC Insider going 3-0 and Prem League Advisor going 1-0).
And for reflection, for which we must do in order to keep improving as people, and as gamblers…
Where Griff was WRONG:
Louisville +2.5 at SMU: “Weird line alert…SMU by a field goal is too easy. Louisville is also 3-0 ATS on the road this year.” – SMU won 38-6.
Kansas +4.5 at Iowa State: “Jayhawks are 3-0 ATS vs Iowa State each of the last three seasons. Kansas was dawgs each game…This game is a pickem in my book.” – Iowa State won 38-14.
Kansas State at Utah -17.5: “KSU had a moment of redemption for a couple weeks but it’s all gone now…Utah has won three straight games by a combined 104 points. Don’t be afraid to take the OVER 51.5 either.” – Shoulda taken the over. Utah won 51-47.
Where Griff was RIGHT:
Illinois at Wisconsin +8.5: “I’m betting on the Badgers to pull off another upset at home. Moneyline is probably the play.” – Wisconsin won 27-10.
Pitt +2.5 at Georgia Tech: “This one does matter to Pitt. Let’s see if Narduzzi can back up his words.” – Pitt won 42-28.
Baylor at Arizona -7: “I love betting against Baylor. They’re now 2-8 ATS…Some may see this as a letdown game for Arizona after taking down UC in Nippert Stadium. That makes me laugh out loud. This offseason, UC fans were shitting on the program and Coach Satterfield. No one expected the Cats to be good this year. The only thing that was confirmed last week was that UC is who we thought they were: frauds. Arizona is playing good ball. Take them.” – Arizona won 41-17.
*BONUS – BYU -2.5 at Cincinnati: “Please read what I wrote about UC regarding the Baylor/Arizona game.” – BYU won 26-14.
Let’s get to this week’s picks.
Last week: 11-6-1 / In 2025: 102-91-6 / Since 2022: 356-335-10
Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (In 2025: 4-10 / Overall: 21-23-1): Temple at North Texas -19.5 – Do you really think it’s gonna stop this week? If so, just take Temple moneyline.
Ole Miss -7 at Mississippi State – I’m not worried about any of the Lane rumors. Kiffin is 4-1 in the Egg Bowl, with wins by 12, 10, 10 and 7 points.
Utah at Kansas OVER 59.5 – Course correction from last week. Utah games have gone OVER in four straight. Utah is averaging 51 ppg over that span. Strangely, the Utes allowed 7 points to Colorado, then 14 to UC, then 28 to Baylor then 47 to Kansas St. I don’t think Utah will allow Kansas to score 100 points, but I’m confident the numbers will add up in our favor.
Iowa at Nebraska +6.5 – This is fadeable because I’m just following recent history. The last time this game was decided by more than 7 points was in 2017 (Iowa 56-14). Nebraska has only won once since 2018, but they are 4-2-1 ATS in that time.
Georgia -14 vs Georgia Tech – I feel like this is gonna bite me in the ass, because of the rivalry-ness of this game, but I cannot come to grips with Georgia Tech being able to compete with the Dawgs. Their seasons are going in opposite directions. Also, in 2018 and 2021, when UGA failed to cover 40+ point spreads the week before this game, Georgia ended up covering against the Yellow Jackets.
Texas A&M at Texas +2.5 – I think A&M does not have a great defense. I think Georgia is the best team in the SEC. I think Texas has figured out how to score the football (except for scoring 10 at Georgia, the best SEC team). I think Texas A&M has not been tested by a complete team since playing Notre Dame more than two months ago. Texas is not complete. But they are more capable than the rest of the shit fucks the Aggies have been playing the last couple months.
Ohio State at Michigan +10 – It all comes down to Bryce Underwood. If he game-manages, Michigan will cover, maybe even win. If he looks like a scared freshman, OSU will cover. After last year, how can you trust the Bucks in this game?
Miami (FL) at Pitt +7 – I’m going to keep riding the “Duz Cruise.” The only game Pitt has not covered since switching QBs was against Notre Dame, the game Narduzzi said didn’t matter. Miami will lose, Notre Dame will win their game, making things easier on the CFP Committee.
Texas Tech -23.5 at West Virginia – Texas Tech has still covered every game that QB Behren Morton has started. He is expected to start again on Saturday. Tech has also beaten West Virginia by 38 and 37 points in two of the last three seasons. Maybe the OVER in this game could be good, too.
Houston +3 at Baylor – This line makes no sense. Baylor has no reason to be favored. Typically, this would mean I should take Baylor, but I can’t do it. They’re 2-9 ATS. Maybe the Bears are favored because Dave Aranda got the vote of confidence this week? I don’t know. I just can’t back them.
UAB at Tulsa -9.5 – UAB is bad vibes. They got guys stabbing their own teammates, only 3-8 ATS and they haven’t covered in four straight. Looks like Tulsa has covered 4 of its last 5 games (2-1 ATS as a favorite in 2025). Feel free to fade, but it’s trouble in paradise for the Blazers.
Oregon -7 at Washington – I think the sharp play here is Oregon 2H -3.5, but I’m not here to give frisky picks like that. It’s gonna be a competitive game, and first half, but Oregon will pull away in the second half. 6.5 is obviously a much better number, so look for that, but Oregon should be able to handle business.
LSU at Oklahoma -10 – I’m not sure how LSU is gonna score in this game. They’re averaging 15 ppg since BK got fired. Now, I don’t think Oklahoma puts up a lot of points either. Also, I’m too much of a pussy to take the UNDER 36.5. But Oklahoma will win 24-9.
Vandy +3 at Tennessee – This could be the last chance we get to bet on Diego Pavia in a meaningful game (bowl games don’t matter anymore and a Vandy loss means no CFP). We don’t need Vandy to win, we just need them to cover, and the Dores are 9-2 ATS this season.
Penn State -13.5 at Rutgers – The Scarlet Knights (5-6) will not go bowling. Recently, they did not cover at OSU, beat a downtrodden Maryland team, got blown out by an Illinois team that is not as good as we thought they were and barely beat Purdue. Meanwhile, State Penn has won two straight and covered 4 of its last 5 games. The Nittany Lions (5-6) WILL go bowling.
Cincinnati at TCU -3.5 – The Cardiac Cats are in full-on cardiac arrest. Losers of 3 straight, SU and ATS. UC fans will be calling for Scott Satterfield’s job again this offseason.
James Madison -21.5 at Coastal Carolina – JMU needs style points to convince the Committee to let them in the CFP. Also, they have beaten Coastal by 32, 42 and 40 points each of the last three seasons.
Virginia Tech at Virginia -8.5 – It’s not the James Franklin era yet. I think UVA has a little chip on their shoulder, too. They’ve been painted as a weak top-25 team this whole season but they can still win the ACC. Virginia was +5.5 at Duke last week and won 34-17. I think they feel disrespected by that line. Virginia Tech is going to have trouble scoring in this game. Virginia wins 31-11.
Maryland +4 at Michigan State – It’s a classic both-teams-suck-so-take-the-points game. In the B1G, Maryland is 1-7 and MSU is 0-8. MSU should be 3-point favorites just because it’s a home game so I’ll gladly take the extra point.
Rice at South Florida -28.5 – When USF wins, they cover the spread. When they lose, they do not cover. Do you think USF will lose this game? If so, just take Rice moneyline.
Alabama -5.5 at Auburn – Tailing the Insider but I hate this.
UCLA at USC OVER 58.5 – UCLA has allowed 56, 48 and 48 points in three of the last four games. USC has played two tough defenses in back-to-back weeks (Oregon and Iowa). The Trojans will benefit from playing a soft defense. But I don’t trust them to win by 23 (they haven’t done it vs a P4 team this season). Maybe USC TT o40.5 is a good play, but I’ll settle for the OVER.
Northwestern at Illinois -7.5 – Illinois’ only home loss this season is to Ohio State (also an ATS loss). The Illini are 5-0 ATS at home in the other games. Ignore the loss at Wisconsin last week. Just take Illinois.
Notre Dame -31.5 at Stanford – The Cardinal got their feel-good moment of the season when they beat Cal 31-10. The Notre Dame train is coming through.
SEC Insider Picks of the Weekend
Last week: 3-0 / 2025 record: 20-19 / Since 2022: 74-78-3
*the following is verbatim*
Don’t look now, but I think me and the advisor have got our swagger back. Feast week, Rivalry week, Thanksgiving Triple header. Who’s got it better than us?
❌outh Watering Pick of the Week (5-7 in 2025 / 19-20-1 overall):Ohio State -10 at Michigan – I think the dam finally breaks in this rivalry, and breaks big time. Surely this can’t go on forever. It’s clear OSU is the better team. Day seems to have a different demeanor this week. The gold pants are coming back to the Buckeye State.
Alabama –5.5 at Auburn – Normally I’d buy into all the spooky hocus pocus juju that goes into playing this game at Jordan-Hare, but I’ve grown. I’ve learned. I still remember that stretch where no one was playing better football than the Tide. Back against the wall fighting for a chance at a playoff birth and SEC title appearance. RTR.
Vandy at Tennessee -3 – Fuck Diego Pavia. Do we really think Vandy should be in the conversation to play in this post season tournament? Do we really think TN is going to let Vanderbilt win the state championship? In Neyland Stadium? And leave the door open to a playoff birth? I still like the pieces on this Vols team. GBO
Prem League Advisor Pick of the Weekend
2025 record: 4-6 / Since 2023: 12-12
*the following is verbatim*
Both-Teams-To-Score (BTTS): Everton vs Newcastle -132
I was accused falsely last week of using ChatGPT to make picks, you know what that means? This week ChatGPT will be making our pick. “Given both teams have showed tendencies to concede — especially Newcastle away — the “both teams score” market might offer reasonable value”
It’s 7:36 p.m. ET. I’m almost done with my drive from Escanaba back to work in Negaunee (it’s about an hour-and-a-half drive). I get this text message:
That’s not good.
I’m about five minutes away from a gas station, so, after a quick glance at the text, I pull into the gas station to fill up and respond (I swear this is what happened. I DID NOT text and drive. I’m serious.).
Here is my response:
I get a text back within one minute of that reply:
I don’t know if this is real at this point. People get scammed all the time. Hell, I’ve been scammed before.
When I was living in Columbus in the summer of 2019, I was doing an internship and didn’t have a job on the side. One day, I Googled “easiest ways to make money.” I clicked on this website and, essentially, this company would send me three checks worth about $2,000, I deposit those into my account then I had to go buy random shit at like Best Buy or Meijer that this company wanted to do tests and surveys on. I would have to ship those items back to this company. Then I would receive another check for $2,000 that I would get to keep for myself.
I got those checks sent to me. I didn’t deposit them into my bank account. I didn’t buy any of that shit they wanted me to buy. I kept getting texts/calls/emails from this company asking for my bank info.
SCAMMED.
I was an idiot. I was desperate. Hand up.
But I learned. Now, I was prepared. I wouldn’t fall for a scam ever again.
Back to those texts from Tuesday night.
About five minutes after the last text, I get a call from a Honolulu phone number. I don’t where people in the PNC fraud department work but Honolulu seems like a reasonable place to me. It’s about 2:45 p.m. local time for them at the time I received the call. Normal work hours.
The beginning of the conversation feels like a typical “someone is trying to steal form your bank account” phone call (I have had my debit card info stolen a couple of times so I know what those phone calls are like). Then this guy I’m talking to says a Zelle payment of $3,500 was scheduled for 8:30 p.m. that night and if I don’t put in a “reversal code” ASAP then I would be out $3,500.
Now I’m getting skeptical.
We’re about 15 minutes into the phone call. He (I’m assuming it’s a ‘he’) told me to click ‘add contact’ in my Zelle account, type in my full name, then type in the reversal code, which was told to me in this manner: 5-1-7-3, 6-8-9-1, 2-8.
Type that in a different way, and it’s: 517-368-9128.
Now it’s confirmed.
This fucking idiot wanted me to send $3,500 to this phone number while using my name.
I was prepared to handle a moment like this from my own experience about six years ago.
So, I called him (still assuming it’s a ‘him’) out on his bullshit.
“You almost got me you mother fucker.”
“You fucking dumbass.”
“You really think I’m that dumb?!?”
I was. I’m not anymore.
But there’s one detail I should’ve noticed at the very start of this shenanigans that would’ve saved me time and energy. Check the punctuation after each the beginning of each text:
A dash and a colon.
That basically translates to [sic].
I’m smarter than I was. But we all make mistakes. So let’s rehash some from last week…
Where Griff was WRONG:
South Carolina at Texas A&M -19.5: “Next week, A&M will play a tune-up game against Samford followed by the season finale at Texas. Next week is the week to fade A&M, not this week. Set it and forget it.” – A&M won 31-30.
Memphis +3 at ECU: “I have this game as Memphis -3. ECU is only favored because of what they’ve done recently…Memphis got upset at by Tulane on national TV their last time out. But Memphis is the better team…2-0 ATS as a dawg this season. Tigers ml.” – Memphis lost 31-27.
Penn State at Michigan State +7: “Why is Penn State favored? And by that much? Because they almost beat Indiana last week? MSU has covered four (4) straight games as a dawg. Both of these teams suck.” – Penn State won 28-10.
Where Griff was RIGHT:
Oklahoma +6 at Alabama: “They want you to take Alabama. All the Tide have to do is win by a touchdown. It should be simple. I’m not falling for it. If the line were 7.5, I’d take Bama. But this number is too weird.” – OU won 23-21.
Arkansas +6 at LSU: “This number is way too big for two shitty teams. Since Bobby Petrino’s coup, Arkansas has lost three (3) games by three (3) points each and another loss to Auburn by nine (9) points.” – LSU won 23-22.
North Texas -17.5 at UAB: “North Texas is 7-2 SU and ATS. When they lose games, they also lose ATS. Do you think North Texas will lose this game? If so, just take UAB moneyline.” – UNT won 53-24.
Now, let’s get to this week’s picks.
Last week: 8-9 / In 2025: 91-85-5 / Since 2022: 345-329-9
Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (In 2025: 3-9 / Overall: 20-22-1):Charlotte +43.5 at Georgia and OVER 53.5 – We need to make up some ground with “The Toretto” and the Dawgs just don’t cover these games. Since 2018, Georgia is 0-3 ATS in its three November non-conference home games. They’ve been -41.5, -42.5 and -52.5. All three games have hit the OVER as well. Also, since 2018, Georgia is 0-5 ATS in any November home game when favored by at least 35 points. Those games are 4-1 to the OVER. Beating up Charlotte doesn’t matter to the Dawgs. Coming out of this game healthy does.
Mizzou at Oklahoma -7.5 – I don’t trust the new Mizzou QB in this environment. The kid has 327 passing yards in three games and he can’t run (-32 rush yards in those games). Mizzou did NOT look good against Vandy and Texas A&M (good teams). Mizzou DID look good against Mississippi State (bad team). I think the #8 ranked Sooners are a good team. So I’m gonna take them.
Rutgers at Ohio State -31.5 – I’m not worried about Michigan being in OSU’s headlights. I am worried about a backdoor cover, though.
Louisville +2.5 at SMU – Weird line alert. SMU is a much better team right now and can still win the ACC. UofL would need the miracle of miracles to make the ACC title game and has lost two straight. SMU by a field goal is too easy. Louisville is also 3-0 ATS on the road this year.
Kansas +4.5 at Iowa State – Jayhawks are 3-0 ATS vs Iowa State each of the last three seasons. Kansas was dawgs each game (+2.5, +2.5, +3.5). Both teams are underperforming this year. Both teams are 4-6 ATS. This game is a pickem in my book.
Baylor at Arizona -7 – I love betting against Baylor. They’re now 2-8 ATS. Arizona has won three straight games (2-1 ATS in that time). Some may see this as a letdown game for Arizona after taking down UC in Nippert Stadium. That makes me laugh out loud. This offseason, UC fans were shitting on the program and Coach Satterfield. No one expected the Cats to be good this year. The only thing that was confirmed last week was that UC is who we thought they were: frauds. Arizona is playing good ball. Take them.
USF -21.5 at UAB – We played this game last week when North Texas beat UAB. When UAB wins, they cover the spread. When they lose, they do not cover. When USF wins, they cover the spread. When they lose, they do not cover. Do you think USF will lose this game? If so, just take UAB moneyline.
USC at Oregon -9.5 – I thought this line would be closer to a touchdown. For that reason, I’m taking the Ducks. Also, USC is 1-3 ATS on the road this season.
Arkansas +9.5 at Texas – Since Bobby Petrino’s coup, the Hogs, though 0-5 SU, have not lost a game by double digits. That includes games at Tennessee and vs Texas A&M. They’ll find a way to be competitive.
Kentucky at Vandy -8.5: re: the Insider below. “Dores by 2 scores.”
Duke at North Carolina +7 – Each of the last three season, this game has been decided by no more than three (3) points. Duke is collapsing, having lost 3 of its last 4 games, all as favorites (also 1-3 ATS in that time). UNC needs to win to make a bowl game so they have some more motivation.
Kansas State at Utah -17.5 – KSU had a moment of redemption for a couple weeks but it’s all gone now. Losing to Texas Tech by 23 followed by just an 8 point win over Oklahoma State last week. Keep in mind, Ok St is the worst P4 team in the nation. Utah has won three straight games by a combined 104 points. Don’t be afraid to take the OVER 51.5 either.
Pitt +2.5 at Georgia Tech – This one does matter to Pitt. Let’s see if Narduzzi can back up his words.
Tennessee at Florida +4 – In these teams’ last 7 games, Florida is 6-1 ATS. Florida as a dawg since 2002: 8-1 ATS. The last 5 times this game was played in The Swamp: Florida is 4-1 ATS. The Gators have the Vols’ number.
Illinois at Wisconsin +8.5 – I do not advise you to tail me here. Wisconsin cannot score points; they’ve scored 27 points in their last 5 games. But they’re playing better defense and have covered three straight games. I’m betting on the Badgers to pull off another upset at home. Moneyline is probably the play.
North Texas -17.5 at Rice – North Texas is 8-2 SU and ATS. When they lose games, they also lose ATS. Do you think North Texas will lose this game? If so, just take Rice moneyline.
BYU -2.5 at Cincinnati – Please read what I wrote about UC regarding the Baylor/Arizona game.
SEC Insider Picks of the Weekend
Last week: 2-1 / 2025 record: 17-19 / Since 2022: 71-78-3
*the following is verbatim*
SEC cupcake week is upon us. Not good for the brand! All eyes in Cincinnati this week for the prime time game of the week. Dave Portnoy vs Skyline Chili…. 0.0!
Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (4-7 in 2025 / 18-20-1 overall): Arkansas at Texas -8.5: I think I’m 0-fer on picking the Horns this year. Something has to give. Texas and Sark know they need a strong close to the season. They may be crazy enough to believe they can still get into the dance. Texas D is strong. Arch and co are close. Style points incoming. Hook Em.
Kentucky at Vandy -8.5: Speaking of style points. Vandy is also playing for a shot at a playoff birth, maybe? I’m low on UK as those who actually read what I have to say know. Vandy is a good football team and should be highly motivated. Dores by 2 scores.
Charlotte at Georgia UNDER 53.5: Georgia is going to have to cover this on their own and I’m not seeing that. They hardly cover, let alone cover these mega spreads. Nothing to gain and too much to lose in this one. Get the JV’s in there early Coach.
Prem League Advisor Pick of the Weekend
2025 record: 3-6 / Since 2023: 11-12
*the following is verbatim*
Brighton ML -110
Appreciate you if you’ve made it this far in the blog. We’re throwing darts blind this year. Brighton and Brentford are tied in the table right now with 16 points. I think Brighton is a much better club from what I’ve seen this year. Brighton at home also, feels like a layup. Let’s get back on track
Last week: 7-5 / In 2025: 83-76-5 / Since 2022: 337-320-9
Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (In 2025: 3-8 / Overall: 20-21-1): Texas at Georgia OVER 49.5 – I’m getting UGA-Tennessee shootout vibes. In Georgia’s ranked games this year, they’ve given up 41, 35, and 24 points. Meanwhile, Texas has scored 45 and 34 points its last two games. Arch is getting comfortable. Georgia’s defense isn’t that scary anymore. Plus, if YouTube TV and Disney strike a deal before this game, this game is 100% hitting the OVER. It has to. The people would deserve that. That’s a big part of this bet. Let’s go Iger! (Editor’s note: LFG)
South Carolina at Texas A&M -19.5 – Next week, A&M will play a tune-up game against Samford followed by the season finale at Texas. Next week is the week to fade A&M, not this week. Set it and forget it.
Michigan at Northwestern UNDER 40.5 – The only Michigan games that have gone OVER with Sherrone Moore coaching were Week 1 (Week 1 results don’t matter) and against Michigan State (maybe the worst P4 defense in the country). Now you’re playing at Wrigley Field in weird conditions.
Notre Dame -12.5 at Pitt – Narduzzi said it: Pitt could lose by 100 and still make the CFP. This game does not matter to them. Beating a ranked team matters to ND.
Arizona at UC -6 – The Bearcats (I believe) can still make the Big 12 Championship game if they win out. Getting blown out by Utah was not good, but that line (+11.5) was always fishy. Now, UC is 2-0 ATS with a rest advantage this year, which they’ll have against Arizona. Pump It Up.
Arkansas +6 at LSU – This number is way too big for two shitty teams. Since Bobby Petrino’s coup, Arkansas has lost three (3) games by three (3) points each and another loss to Auburn by nine (9) points.
Tennessee Tech +22.5 at Kentucky
North Texas -17.5 at UAB – North Texas is 7-2 SU and ATS. When they lose games, they also lose ATS. Do you think North Texas will lose this game? If so, just take UAB moneyline.
Oklahoma +6 at Alabama – They want you to take Alabama. All the Tide have to do is win by a touchdown. It should be simple. I’m not falling for it. If the line were 7.5, I’d take Bama. But this number is too weird.
Penn State at Michigan State +7 – Why is Penn State favored? And by that much? Because they almost beat Indiana last week? MSU has covered four (4) straight games as a dawg. Both of these teams suck. I’d take the OVER but I’m worried about these teams’ ability to score against each other. You may think this line is similar and fishy, like the game above, but it’s not. It’s just wrong. Trust me.
NC State +14.5 at Miami (FL) – Makes total sense to fade me on this one. I don’t watch either team that much. But Mario Cristobal’s Hurricanes usually drop off late in the season and his team is 2-4 ATS in November since 2024. This year, Miami is 1-3 ATS in the last four (4) games. NC State upset Georgia Tech a couple weeks ago and are coming off a bye. Maybe we catch the Wolfpack at the right time.
UCF at Texas Tech -23.5 – The Red Raiders are 9-0 ATS in games QB Behren Morton has started this year. Morton is probable for this game.
Memphis +3 at ECU – I have this game as Memphis -3. ECU is only favored because of what they’ve done recently: won three straight games 41-27, 45-14, 48-22, but those opponents’ combined record is 8-20 and 3-9 in the AAC. ECU only covered the spread in two of those games. Memphis got upset at by Tulane on national TV their last time out. But Memphis is the better team. 8-2 SU and ATS and 2-0 ATS as a dawg this season. Tigers ml.
North Carolina +5.5 at Wake Forest – UNC is just playing good football right now. They’ve covered three of the last four won two straight games. The defense has been good, giving up 10, 15, 17 and 21 points in the last four. In Wake’s last three games, they’ve scored 7, 13 and 16 points. I’m not sure about taking the UNDER (38.5) but I am sure about taking UNC.
Florida at Ole Miss -11.5 – Just one of those lines you look at and immediately know which side you’re taking.
Utah -8.5 at Baylor – I just have a problem with Baylor. They’re 2-7 ATS and 1-4 ATS at home. Utah is 7-2 ATS. There’s not much else to this one.
UCLA at Ohio State -32.5 – The honeymoon is over. UCLA has lost two straight. Ryan Day knows how to play against Nico (Bucks beat Vols 42-17 in Columbus last year). OSU’s defense is even better this year. UCLA should not score double digits this game.
Mississippi State at Mizzou -7 – Tailing the Insider.
SEC Insider Picks of the Weekend
Last week: 1-2 / 2025 record: 15-18 / Since 2022: 69-77-3
*the following is verbatim*
3 weeks to go. I’ve been about as disappointed in myself as the Louisiana Governor is in Brian Kelly and Scott Woodward. If you’re fading me, congrats thus far. It’s time to go play spoiler and win the year on a high note.
Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (3-7 in 2025 / 17-20-1 overall): TCU at BYU -3 – Get right spot for BYU here after getting beat down last week. 8:15PM kick in Provo? Expect the fans to be all hopped up on Sugar and ready to go. Cougars by 10+.
Mississippi State at Missouri -7 – Look for Missouri to run silly on Miss State here. I think Zollers has some good tools and should settle in here with another week of practice. Tough to play that A&M D in your first start. Tigers roll.
Arizona at Cincinnati -6 – My friends in Cincinnati think the Bearcats can still win the Big12. If that’s the case, you go and beat this AZ team by a TD. Welcome to Nip at Noon you west coasters.
Oklahoma State at Kansas -24.5: “’I’m gonna continue to bet against OK St until they prove to be competitive.’ I wrote that three weeks ago. I wrote it two weeks ago. I wrote it last week. I will write it again next week.” – Kansas won 38-21. It had to end sometime.
UCF +3 at Baylor: “Baylor is 1-7 ATS this year. Like Texas, you cannot trust this team as a favorite. They’ve lost two straight after coming off a bye. UCF has covered in two straight and they are coming off their bye week.” – Baylor won 30-3.
Georgia Tech -5.5 at NC State: “Haynes King and the Yellow Jackets are for real. In year’s past, NC State would be enticing to take in this spot. But the Wolfpack have lost 4 of the last 5 games SU and ATS (its only win was against Campbell (?)). Tech has covered three straight games and are 2-1 ATS on the road this year.” – NC State won 48-36.
Where Griff was RIGHT:
Navy at North Texas -6.5: “This week’s “I Really Just Wanna Bet On This Team” Game of the Week (2-0 this season).” – Mean Green won 31-17.
Army at Air Force UNDER 48.5: “This game has gone UNDER in every game for the last 11 years.” – 12 straight years now. Army won 20-17.
Pitt -14 at Stanford: “Pitt is 4-0 ATS since making the QB change…I’m gonna keep riding the hot hand.” – Pitt won 35-20.
Last week: 7-11-1 / In 2025: 76-71-5 / Since 2022: 330-315-9
Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (In 2025: 3-7 / Overall: 20-20-1):Indiana -14.5 at Penn State
BYU at Texas Tech -10.5
Ohio State -29.5 at Purdue
Texas A&M -6.5 at Mizzou
Oregon at Iowa +6.5
Duke at UConn +9.5
Auburn at Vandy -6.5
Stanford at North Carolina -7.5
LSU +10 at Alabama
Navy at Notre Dame -26.5
Florida at Kentucky +3
Nebraska at UCLA -1.5
SEC Insider Picks of the Weekend
Last week: 2-1 / 2025 record: 14-16 / Since 2022: 68-75-3
*the following is verbatim*
Rocky Flop last week. Remind me to never buy into a potential atmosphere play again. Nonetheless a positive week.
Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (3-6 in 2025 / 17-19-1 overall):Florida -3 at Kentucky – This Gator team probably should’ve beat Georgia last week. They flashed and you can tell they have plenty of dudes on each side of the ball. I like Billy 2.0 and think UK is about as bad as it gets. Give me the Gators here to bounce back.
Texas A&M -6.5 at Mizzou – I’ve been a doubter but I’ve been proven wrong I believe. Drink could have 1 foot out the door as he is a hot name for these open jobs. The players hear that stuff. Distraction alert. Gig Em.
Oregon -6.5 at Iowa – Oregon has all of their goals ahead of them. Lanning knows he’s got to build this thing to a crescendo as the years closes. Early and often for the Ducks. I see them winning by 10+.
Prem League Advisor Pick of the Weekend
2025 record: 3-5 / Since 2023: 11-11
*the following is verbatim*
Arsenal ML + Chelsea ML -119
Prem advisor has never been so low. Loser of 2 straight and 3 of his/her last 4. They/them need a bye week but the show must go on. Arsenal is a wagon and we should have been fading wolves every week. I see both Arsenal and Chelsea cruising on Saturday
Griffin Weinberg 