Author: griffinweinberg20

I placed some futures in my Week 1 blog. There was more bad than good…

Ohio State: under 10.5 wins (-140): “Kinda shocked it was -140 to the under. I thought I would be a contrarian with this pick. They went all in last season, Last Dance-style, and it worked but the follow-up is usually underwhelming in these situations. I think they lose three games.” – Big miss.

Penn State: over 10.5 wins (-105): “They’re trying to be this year’s Buckeyes. They plucked DC Jim Knowles from Columbus, Allar is back, they got a bunch of dudes who returned instead of going to the draft. Everyone doubted Ryan Day the same way they are doubting James Franklin. I’m not going to ignore the similarities. Not picking them to win it all, but if their only loss is to tOSU, they hit this number.” – B1G miss.

Indiana: over 8.5 win (+100): “I got to.” – B1G hit.

Vanderbilt: under 5.5 wins (-125): “Last year was cute. Everyone has the book on Pavia and Co. now. Vandy is going back to the shitter of the SEC.” – That didn’t turn out well.

Alabama: over 9.5 wins (-120): “Even after last year, they’re still Alabama. Deboer gets his OC Ryan Grubb back, who he worked with at Washington when Penix was the QB. The Bama QB Simpson has been riding the pine for two years and got a chance to learn Deboer’s system. It wouldn’t shock me if they go 12-0.” – 10-2 (as of now) but we’ll take that!

Now to last week’s games…

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Where Griff was WRONG:

Miami (FL) at Pitt +7: “I’m going to keep riding the ‘Duz Cruise.’ The only game Pitt has not covered since switching QBs was against Notre Dame, the game Narduzzi said didn’t matter. Miami will lose, Notre Dame will win their game, making things easier on the CFP Committee.” – Miami won 38-7.

UAB at Tulsa -9.5: “UAB is bad vibes. They got guys stabbing their own teammates, only 3-8 ATS and they haven’t covered in four straight…Feel free to fade, but it’s trouble in paradise for the Blazers.” – UAB won 31-24.

LSU at Oklahoma -10: “I’m not sure how LSU is gonna score in this game. They’re averaging 15 ppg since BK got fired. Now, I don’t think Oklahoma puts up a lot of points either. Also, I’m too much of a pussy to take the UNDER 36.5. But Oklahoma will win 24-9.” – Should’ve taken the under. OU won 17-13.

Where Griff was RIGHT:

Texas A&M at Texas +2.5: “…I think Texas A&M has not been tested by a complete team since playing Notre Dame more than two months ago. Texas is not complete. But they are more capable than the rest of the shit fucks the Aggies have been playing the last couple months.” – Texas won 27-17.

Cincinnati at TCU -3.5: “The Cardiac Cats are in full-on cardiac arrest. Losers of 3 straight, SU and ATS. UC fans will be calling for Scott Satterfield’s job again this offseason.” – TCU won 45-23.

Virginia Tech at Virginia -8.5: “It’s not the James Franklin era yet. I think UVA has a little chip on their shoulder, too…Virginia was +5.5 at Duke last week and won 34-17. I think they feel disrespected by that line…Virginia wins 31-11.” – Virginia did win by 20 points, 27-7.

Now, let’s get to this week’s picks.

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Last week: 12-12 / In 2025: 114-103-6 / Since 2022: 368-347-10

Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (In 2025: 5-10 / Overall: 22-23-1): B1G: Indiana +4 vs OSU (in Indianapolis, IN) – You thought.

Sun Belt: Troy at James Madison -23.5 – The Dukes need all the style points they can get.

Conference USA: Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State +2.5 – Jax State is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS at home this season. They already beat Kennesaw State this season, on November 15th, 35-26. I don’t know anything else about these teams.

AAC: North Texas -2.5 at Tulane – This blog has enjoyed the fruits of betting on the Mean Green for a while now. I’m not stopping now.

Mountain West: UNLV +4.5 at Boise State – Another game I don’t know anything about. Boise has beaten UNLV 9 straight times, including earlier this season in Boise, 56-31. Both teams are 5-1 ATS this year. Whatever.

Big 12: BYU vs Texas Tech -12.5 (in Arlington, TX) – Like North Texas, I just can’t turn away from betting on TTU. They have covered every game that QB Behren Morten has started. Why will it change this week?

MAC: Miami (OH) +2.5 vs Western Michigan (in Detroit, MI) – Love and Honor. Since 2005, in this conference championship game, dawgs are 14-5-1 ATS.

SEC: Georgia vs Alabama +2.5 (in Atlanta, GA) – Kirby has a Bama problem (1-7 SU and 3-5 ATS vs the Tide). Georgia didn’t even wanna be in this game either. Playing in the SEC Championship feels like a punishment. Bama wants to be here.

ACC: Duke vs Virginia -3.5 (in Charlotte, NC) – I like where my head was at with Virginia last week: they’re playing like they’ve been disrespected all year. Hypothetically, Duke winning would be funny because it means the ACC would probably be left out of the playoff. Realistically, Duke is not going to win, or cover. Virginia wins by two touchdowns.

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SEC Insider Picks of the Weekend

Last week: 2-1 / 2025 record: 22-20 / Since 2022: 76-79-3

*the following is verbatim*

One last dance. All of the marbles on the line. All you fuckers counted us out. It got so bad that the Advisor and I were trying to figure out ways to kill ourselves off of this blog. Griff even threatened to expose our identity if we didn’t shape up. We scratched, we clawed. Now we have a chance to go out as winners, or [sic] atleast as .500 bettors…

Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (6-7 in 2025 / 20-20-1 overall): Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State +2.5 – “What’s better than a home team getting points?” – Brent Musburger. I love this Jacksonville State team. They say it’s hard to beat the same team twice. That theory be damned. Cocks win The C-USA Title.

Miami (OH) +2.5 vs Western Michigan – Miami topped Western Michigan back in October. New QB at the [sic] healm for the Red Hawks. Same result incoming. 3rd straight MAC Championship for Miami. Do they start to build the statue for Coach Chuck Martin when he brings this one home?

Georgia -2.5 vs Alabama – As I’ve always said, it’s hard to beat the same team twice. Kirby Smart is 3-0 when facing a team for the 2nd time in a season. both teams are banged up. I’ve been down on Georgia but looking back, Bama played damn near perfect to beat them the first go round. Dawgs.

Ohio State -4 vs Indiana – I just think the Buckeyes have more horses here on both sides of the ball. This should be a great game but at the end of the day, defense wins championships. Buckeyes D should slow down the O and the Buckeyes O should score plenty. I’m not buying the distractions with Hartline leaving. Ryan Day is too good of a coach to let that happen.

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Prem League Advisor Pick of the Weekend

2025 record: 5-6 / Since 2023: 13-12

*the following is verbatim*

Liverpool ML -120

Now most people would say, “Well since AI picked a winner last week, let’s go back to AI.” Let me tell you something, run from AI, build hard skills, escape the matrix, it’s a bubble.

Anyway, Liverpool has been garbage recently and I think we are getting some value here. Leeds is on my “Never bet again” list so this is a perfect storm. Let’s get 3 in a row and end the season strong

I’m THANKFUL for many things this year.

For Joe Burrow, telling the haters and losers to “Kiss-my-anthia” and delivering the Bengals a Thanksgiving win over the Ravens (h/t the defense).

For Labatt Blue, the beer I consumed while sitting at Remie’s Tavern after working 8.5 long, hard, strenuous hours on Thanksgiving Day.

For 4-wheel drive, for which our company cars are equipped with that allowed me to navigate my way through a literal blizzard the last two days while still finding a way to do my job.

For snow tires, for which my 2016 Toyota Corolla is now equipped with that makes traversing through 10-15 inches of snow and 55 mph winds much easier.

For myself, for not turning into Edward Snowed-in in the midst of an actual fucking blizzard.

For this blog, for providing all of you a total record of 15-6-1 on picks last week (h/t SEC Insider going 3-0 and Prem League Advisor going 1-0).

And for reflection, for which we must do in order to keep improving as people, and as gamblers…

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Where Griff was WRONG:

Louisville +2.5 at SMU: “Weird line alert…SMU by a field goal is too easy. Louisville is also 3-0 ATS on the road this year.” – SMU won 38-6.

Kansas +4.5 at Iowa State: “Jayhawks are 3-0 ATS vs Iowa State each of the last three seasons. Kansas was dawgs each game…This game is a pickem in my book.” – Iowa State won 38-14.

Kansas State at Utah -17.5: “KSU had a moment of redemption for a couple weeks but it’s all gone now…Utah has won three straight games by a combined 104 points. Don’t be afraid to take the OVER 51.5 either.” – Shoulda taken the over. Utah won 51-47.

Where Griff was RIGHT:

Illinois at Wisconsin +8.5: “I’m betting on the Badgers to pull off another upset at home. Moneyline is probably the play.” – Wisconsin won 27-10.

Pitt +2.5 at Georgia Tech: “This one does matter to Pitt. Let’s see if Narduzzi can back up his words.” – Pitt won 42-28.

Baylor at Arizona -7: “I love betting against Baylor. They’re now 2-8 ATS…Some may see this as a letdown game for Arizona after taking down UC in Nippert Stadium. That makes me laugh out loud. This offseason, UC fans were shitting on the program and Coach Satterfield. No one expected the Cats to be good this year. The only thing that was confirmed last week was that UC is who we thought they were: frauds. Arizona is playing good ball. Take them.” – Arizona won 41-17.

*BONUS – BYU -2.5 at Cincinnati: “Please read what I wrote about UC regarding the Baylor/Arizona game.” – BYU won 26-14.

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Let’s get to this week’s picks.

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Last week: 11-6-1 / In 2025: 102-91-6 / Since 2022: 356-335-10

Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (In 2025: 4-10 / Overall: 21-23-1): Temple at North Texas -19.5 – Do you really think it’s gonna stop this week? If so, just take Temple moneyline.

Ole Miss -7 at Mississippi State – I’m not worried about any of the Lane rumors. Kiffin is 4-1 in the Egg Bowl, with wins by 12, 10, 10 and 7 points.

Utah at Kansas OVER 59.5 – Course correction from last week. Utah games have gone OVER in four straight. Utah is averaging 51 ppg over that span. Strangely, the Utes allowed 7 points to Colorado, then 14 to UC, then 28 to Baylor then 47 to Kansas St. I don’t think Utah will allow Kansas to score 100 points, but I’m confident the numbers will add up in our favor.

Iowa at Nebraska +6.5 – This is fadeable because I’m just following recent history. The last time this game was decided by more than 7 points was in 2017 (Iowa 56-14). Nebraska has only won once since 2018, but they are 4-2-1 ATS in that time.

Georgia -14 vs Georgia Tech – I feel like this is gonna bite me in the ass, because of the rivalry-ness of this game, but I cannot come to grips with Georgia Tech being able to compete with the Dawgs. Their seasons are going in opposite directions. Also, in 2018 and 2021, when UGA failed to cover 40+ point spreads the week before this game, Georgia ended up covering against the Yellow Jackets.

Texas A&M at Texas +2.5 – I think A&M does not have a great defense. I think Georgia is the best team in the SEC. I think Texas has figured out how to score the football (except for scoring 10 at Georgia, the best SEC team). I think Texas A&M has not been tested by a complete team since playing Notre Dame more than two months ago. Texas is not complete. But they are more capable than the rest of the shit fucks the Aggies have been playing the last couple months.

Ohio State at Michigan +10 – It all comes down to Bryce Underwood. If he game-manages, Michigan will cover, maybe even win. If he looks like a scared freshman, OSU will cover. After last year, how can you trust the Bucks in this game?

Miami (FL) at Pitt +7 – I’m going to keep riding the “Duz Cruise.” The only game Pitt has not covered since switching QBs was against Notre Dame, the game Narduzzi said didn’t matter. Miami will lose, Notre Dame will win their game, making things easier on the CFP Committee.

Texas Tech -23.5 at West Virginia – Texas Tech has still covered every game that QB Behren Morton has started. He is expected to start again on Saturday. Tech has also beaten West Virginia by 38 and 37 points in two of the last three seasons. Maybe the OVER in this game could be good, too.

Houston +3 at Baylor – This line makes no sense. Baylor has no reason to be favored. Typically, this would mean I should take Baylor, but I can’t do it. They’re 2-9 ATS. Maybe the Bears are favored because Dave Aranda got the vote of confidence this week? I don’t know. I just can’t back them.

UAB at Tulsa -9.5 – UAB is bad vibes. They got guys stabbing their own teammates, only 3-8 ATS and they haven’t covered in four straight. Looks like Tulsa has covered 4 of its last 5 games (2-1 ATS as a favorite in 2025). Feel free to fade, but it’s trouble in paradise for the Blazers.

Oregon -7 at Washington – I think the sharp play here is Oregon 2H -3.5, but I’m not here to give frisky picks like that. It’s gonna be a competitive game, and first half, but Oregon will pull away in the second half. 6.5 is obviously a much better number, so look for that, but Oregon should be able to handle business.

LSU at Oklahoma -10 – I’m not sure how LSU is gonna score in this game. They’re averaging 15 ppg since BK got fired. Now, I don’t think Oklahoma puts up a lot of points either. Also, I’m too much of a pussy to take the UNDER 36.5. But Oklahoma will win 24-9.

Vandy +3 at Tennessee – This could be the last chance we get to bet on Diego Pavia in a meaningful game (bowl games don’t matter anymore and a Vandy loss means no CFP). We don’t need Vandy to win, we just need them to cover, and the Dores are 9-2 ATS this season.

Penn State -13.5 at Rutgers – The Scarlet Knights (5-6) will not go bowling. Recently, they did not cover at OSU, beat a downtrodden Maryland team, got blown out by an Illinois team that is not as good as we thought they were and barely beat Purdue. Meanwhile, State Penn has won two straight and covered 4 of its last 5 games. The Nittany Lions (5-6) WILL go bowling.

Cincinnati at TCU -3.5 – The Cardiac Cats are in full-on cardiac arrest. Losers of 3 straight, SU and ATS. UC fans will be calling for Scott Satterfield’s job again this offseason.

James Madison -21.5 at Coastal Carolina – JMU needs style points to convince the Committee to let them in the CFP. Also, they have beaten Coastal by 32, 42 and 40 points each of the last three seasons.

Virginia Tech at Virginia -8.5 – It’s not the James Franklin era yet. I think UVA has a little chip on their shoulder, too. They’ve been painted as a weak top-25 team this whole season but they can still win the ACC. Virginia was +5.5 at Duke last week and won 34-17. I think they feel disrespected by that line. Virginia Tech is going to have trouble scoring in this game. Virginia wins 31-11.

Maryland +4 at Michigan State – It’s a classic both-teams-suck-so-take-the-points game. In the B1G, Maryland is 1-7 and MSU is 0-8. MSU should be 3-point favorites just because it’s a home game so I’ll gladly take the extra point.

Rice at South Florida -28.5 – When USF wins, they cover the spread. When they lose, they do not cover. Do you think USF will lose this game? If so, just take Rice moneyline.

Alabama -5.5 at Auburn – Tailing the Insider but I hate this.

UCLA at USC OVER 58.5 – UCLA has allowed 56, 48 and 48 points in three of the last four games. USC has played two tough defenses in back-to-back weeks (Oregon and Iowa). The Trojans will benefit from playing a soft defense. But I don’t trust them to win by 23 (they haven’t done it vs a P4 team this season). Maybe USC TT o40.5 is a good play, but I’ll settle for the OVER.

Northwestern at Illinois -7.5 – Illinois’ only home loss this season is to Ohio State (also an ATS loss). The Illini are 5-0 ATS at home in the other games. Ignore the loss at Wisconsin last week. Just take Illinois.

Notre Dame -31.5 at Stanford – The Cardinal got their feel-good moment of the season when they beat Cal 31-10. The Notre Dame train is coming through.

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SEC Insider Picks of the Weekend

Last week: 3-0 / 2025 record: 20-19 / Since 2022: 74-78-3

*the following is verbatim*

Don’t look now, but I think me and the advisor have got our swagger back. Feast week, Rivalry week, Thanksgiving Triple header. Who’s got it better than us?

❌outh Watering Pick of the Week (5-7 in 2025 / 19-20-1 overall): Ohio State -10 at Michigan – I think the dam finally breaks in this rivalry, and breaks big time. Surely this can’t go on forever. It’s clear OSU is the better team. Day seems to have a different demeanor this week. The gold pants are coming back to the Buckeye State.

Alabama –5.5 at Auburn – Normally I’d buy into all the spooky hocus pocus juju that goes into playing this game at Jordan-Hare, but I’ve grown. I’ve learned. I still remember that stretch where no one was playing better football than the Tide. Back against the wall fighting for a chance at a playoff birth and SEC title appearance. RTR.

Vandy at Tennessee -3 – Fuck Diego Pavia. Do we really think Vandy should be in the conversation to play in this post season tournament? Do we really think TN is going to let Vanderbilt win the state championship? In Neyland Stadium? And leave the door open to a playoff birth? I still like the pieces on this Vols team. GBO

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Prem League Advisor Pick of the Weekend

2025 record: 4-6 / Since 2023: 12-12

*the following is verbatim*

Both-Teams-To-Score (BTTS): Everton vs Newcastle -132

I was accused falsely last week of using ChatGPT to make picks, you know what that means? This week ChatGPT will be making our pick. “Given both teams have showed tendencies to concede — especially Newcastle away — the “both teams score” market might offer reasonable value”

I was nearly scammed out of $3,500 Tuesday night.

NEARLY.

It’s 7:36 p.m. ET. I’m almost done with my drive from Escanaba back to work in Negaunee (it’s about an hour-and-a-half drive). I get this text message:

That’s not good.

I’m about five minutes away from a gas station, so, after a quick glance at the text, I pull into the gas station to fill up and respond (I swear this is what happened. I DID NOT text and drive. I’m serious.).

Here is my response:

I get a text back within one minute of that reply:

I don’t know if this is real at this point. People get scammed all the time. Hell, I’ve been scammed before.

When I was living in Columbus in the summer of 2019, I was doing an internship and didn’t have a job on the side. One day, I Googled “easiest ways to make money.” I clicked on this website and, essentially, this company would send me three checks worth about $2,000, I deposit those into my account then I had to go buy random shit at like Best Buy or Meijer that this company wanted to do tests and surveys on. I would have to ship those items back to this company. Then I would receive another check for $2,000 that I would get to keep for myself.

I got those checks sent to me. I didn’t deposit them into my bank account. I didn’t buy any of that shit they wanted me to buy. I kept getting texts/calls/emails from this company asking for my bank info.

SCAMMED.

I was an idiot. I was desperate. Hand up.

But I learned. Now, I was prepared. I wouldn’t fall for a scam ever again.

Back to those texts from Tuesday night.

About five minutes after the last text, I get a call from a Honolulu phone number. I don’t where people in the PNC fraud department work but Honolulu seems like a reasonable place to me. It’s about 2:45 p.m. local time for them at the time I received the call. Normal work hours.

The beginning of the conversation feels like a typical “someone is trying to steal form your bank account” phone call (I have had my debit card info stolen a couple of times so I know what those phone calls are like). Then this guy I’m talking to says a Zelle payment of $3,500 was scheduled for 8:30 p.m. that night and if I don’t put in a “reversal code” ASAP then I would be out $3,500.

Now I’m getting skeptical.

We’re about 15 minutes into the phone call. He (I’m assuming it’s a ‘he’) told me to click ‘add contact’ in my Zelle account, type in my full name, then type in the reversal code, which was told to me in this manner: 5-1-7-3, 6-8-9-1, 2-8.

Type that in a different way, and it’s: 517-368-9128.

Now it’s confirmed.

This fucking idiot wanted me to send $3,500 to this phone number while using my name.

I was prepared to handle a moment like this from my own experience about six years ago.

So, I called him (still assuming it’s a ‘him’) out on his bullshit.

“You almost got me you mother fucker.”

“You fucking dumbass.”

“You really think I’m that dumb?!?”

I was. I’m not anymore.

But there’s one detail I should’ve noticed at the very start of this shenanigans that would’ve saved me time and energy. Check the punctuation after each the beginning of each text:

A dash and a colon.

That basically translates to [sic].

I’m smarter than I was. But we all make mistakes. So let’s rehash some from last week…

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Where Griff was WRONG:

South Carolina at Texas A&M -19.5: “Next week, A&M will play a tune-up game against Samford followed by the season finale at Texas. Next week is the week to fade A&M, not this week. Set it and forget it.” – A&M won 31-30.

Memphis +3 at ECU: “I have this game as Memphis -3. ECU is only favored because of what they’ve done recently…Memphis got upset at by Tulane on national TV their last time out. But Memphis is the better team…2-0 ATS as a dawg this season. Tigers ml.” – Memphis lost 31-27.

Penn State at Michigan State +7: “Why is Penn State favored? And by that much? Because they almost beat Indiana last week? MSU has covered four (4) straight games as a dawg. Both of these teams suck.” – Penn State won 28-10.

Where Griff was RIGHT:

Oklahoma +6 at Alabama: “They want you to take Alabama. All the Tide have to do is win by a touchdown. It should be simple. I’m not falling for it. If the line were 7.5, I’d take Bama. But this number is too weird.” – OU won 23-21.

Arkansas +6 at LSU: “This number is way too big for two shitty teams. Since Bobby Petrino’s coup, Arkansas has lost three (3) games by three (3) points each and another loss to Auburn by nine (9) points.” – LSU won 23-22.

North Texas -17.5 at UAB: “North Texas is 7-2 SU and ATS. When they lose games, they also lose ATS. Do you think North Texas will lose this game? If so, just take UAB moneyline.” – UNT won 53-24.

Now, let’s get to this week’s picks.

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Last week: 8-9 / In 2025: 91-85-5 / Since 2022: 345-329-9

Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (In 2025: 3-9 / Overall: 20-22-1): Charlotte +43.5 at Georgia and OVER 53.5 – We need to make up some ground with “The Toretto” and the Dawgs just don’t cover these games. Since 2018, Georgia is 0-3 ATS in its three November non-conference home games. They’ve been -41.5, -42.5 and -52.5. All three games have hit the OVER as well. Also, since 2018, Georgia is 0-5 ATS in any November home game when favored by at least 35 points. Those games are 4-1 to the OVER. Beating up Charlotte doesn’t matter to the Dawgs. Coming out of this game healthy does.

Mizzou at Oklahoma -7.5 – I don’t trust the new Mizzou QB in this environment. The kid has 327 passing yards in three games and he can’t run (-32 rush yards in those games). Mizzou did NOT look good against Vandy and Texas A&M (good teams). Mizzou DID look good against Mississippi State (bad team). I think the #8 ranked Sooners are a good team. So I’m gonna take them.

Rutgers at Ohio State -31.5 – I’m not worried about Michigan being in OSU’s headlights. I am worried about a backdoor cover, though.

Louisville +2.5 at SMU – Weird line alert. SMU is a much better team right now and can still win the ACC. UofL would need the miracle of miracles to make the ACC title game and has lost two straight. SMU by a field goal is too easy. Louisville is also 3-0 ATS on the road this year.

Kansas +4.5 at Iowa State – Jayhawks are 3-0 ATS vs Iowa State each of the last three seasons. Kansas was dawgs each game (+2.5, +2.5, +3.5). Both teams are underperforming this year. Both teams are 4-6 ATS. This game is a pickem in my book.

Baylor at Arizona -7 – I love betting against Baylor. They’re now 2-8 ATS. Arizona has won three straight games (2-1 ATS in that time). Some may see this as a letdown game for Arizona after taking down UC in Nippert Stadium. That makes me laugh out loud. This offseason, UC fans were shitting on the program and Coach Satterfield. No one expected the Cats to be good this year. The only thing that was confirmed last week was that UC is who we thought they were: frauds. Arizona is playing good ball. Take them.

USF -21.5 at UAB – We played this game last week when North Texas beat UAB. When UAB wins, they cover the spread. When they lose, they do not cover. When USF wins, they cover the spread. When they lose, they do not cover. Do you think USF will lose this game? If so, just take UAB moneyline.

USC at Oregon -9.5 – I thought this line would be closer to a touchdown. For that reason, I’m taking the Ducks. Also, USC is 1-3 ATS on the road this season.

Arkansas +9.5 at Texas – Since Bobby Petrino’s coup, the Hogs, though 0-5 SU, have not lost a game by double digits. That includes games at Tennessee and vs Texas A&M. They’ll find a way to be competitive.

Kentucky at Vandy -8.5: re: the Insider below. “Dores by 2 scores.”

Duke at North Carolina +7 – Each of the last three season, this game has been decided by no more than three (3) points. Duke is collapsing, having lost 3 of its last 4 games, all as favorites (also 1-3 ATS in that time). UNC needs to win to make a bowl game so they have some more motivation.

Kansas State at Utah -17.5 – KSU had a moment of redemption for a couple weeks but it’s all gone now. Losing to Texas Tech by 23 followed by just an 8 point win over Oklahoma State last week. Keep in mind, Ok St is the worst P4 team in the nation. Utah has won three straight games by a combined 104 points. Don’t be afraid to take the OVER 51.5 either.

Pitt +2.5 at Georgia Tech – This one does matter to Pitt. Let’s see if Narduzzi can back up his words.

Tennessee at Florida +4 – In these teams’ last 7 games, Florida is 6-1 ATS. Florida as a dawg since 2002: 8-1 ATS. The last 5 times this game was played in The Swamp: Florida is 4-1 ATS. The Gators have the Vols’ number.

Illinois at Wisconsin +8.5 – I do not advise you to tail me here. Wisconsin cannot score points; they’ve scored 27 points in their last 5 games. But they’re playing better defense and have covered three straight games. I’m betting on the Badgers to pull off another upset at home. Moneyline is probably the play.

North Texas -17.5 at Rice – North Texas is 8-2 SU and ATS. When they lose games, they also lose ATS. Do you think North Texas will lose this game? If so, just take Rice moneyline.

BYU -2.5 at Cincinnati – Please read what I wrote about UC regarding the Baylor/Arizona game.

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SEC Insider Picks of the Weekend

Last week: 2-1 / 2025 record: 17-19 / Since 2022: 71-78-3

*the following is verbatim*

SEC cupcake week is upon us. Not good for the brand! All eyes in Cincinnati this week for the prime time game of the week. Dave Portnoy vs Skyline Chili…. 0.0!

Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (4-7 in 2025 / 18-20-1 overall): Arkansas at Texas -8.5: I think I’m 0-fer on picking the Horns this year. Something has to give. Texas and Sark know they need a strong close to the season. They may be crazy enough to believe they can still get into the dance. Texas D is strong. Arch and co are close. Style points incoming. Hook Em.

Kentucky at Vandy -8.5: Speaking of style points. Vandy is also playing for a shot at a playoff birth, maybe? I’m low on UK as those who actually read what I have to say know. Vandy is a good football team and should be highly motivated. Dores by 2 scores.

Charlotte at Georgia UNDER 53.5: Georgia is going to have to cover this on their own and I’m not seeing that. They hardly cover, let alone cover these mega spreads. Nothing to gain and too much to lose in this one. Get the JV’s in there early Coach.

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Prem League Advisor Pick of the Weekend

2025 record: 3-6 / Since 2023: 11-12

*the following is verbatim*

Brighton ML -110

Appreciate you if you’ve made it this far in the blog. We’re throwing darts blind this year. Brighton and Brentford are tied in the table right now with 16 points. I think Brighton is a much better club from what I’ve seen this year. Brighton at home also, feels like a layup. Let’s get back on track

Last week: 7-5 / In 2025: 83-76-5 / Since 2022: 337-320-9

Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (In 2025: 3-8 / Overall: 20-21-1): Texas at Georgia OVER 49.5 – I’m getting UGA-Tennessee shootout vibes. In Georgia’s ranked games this year, they’ve given up 41, 35, and 24 points. Meanwhile, Texas has scored 45 and 34 points its last two games. Arch is getting comfortable. Georgia’s defense isn’t that scary anymore. Plus, if YouTube TV and Disney strike a deal before this game, this game is 100% hitting the OVER. It has to. The people would deserve that. That’s a big part of this bet. Let’s go Iger! (Editor’s note: LFG)

South Carolina at Texas A&M -19.5 – Next week, A&M will play a tune-up game against Samford followed by the season finale at Texas. Next week is the week to fade A&M, not this week. Set it and forget it.

Michigan at Northwestern UNDER 40.5 – The only Michigan games that have gone OVER with Sherrone Moore coaching were Week 1 (Week 1 results don’t matter) and against Michigan State (maybe the worst P4 defense in the country). Now you’re playing at Wrigley Field in weird conditions.

Notre Dame -12.5 at Pitt – Narduzzi said it: Pitt could lose by 100 and still make the CFP. This game does not matter to them. Beating a ranked team matters to ND.

Arizona at UC -6 – The Bearcats (I believe) can still make the Big 12 Championship game if they win out. Getting blown out by Utah was not good, but that line (+11.5) was always fishy. Now, UC is 2-0 ATS with a rest advantage this year, which they’ll have against Arizona. Pump It Up.

Arkansas +6 at LSU – This number is way too big for two shitty teams. Since Bobby Petrino’s coup, Arkansas has lost three (3) games by three (3) points each and another loss to Auburn by nine (9) points.

Tennessee Tech +22.5 at Kentucky

North Texas -17.5 at UAB – North Texas is 7-2 SU and ATS. When they lose games, they also lose ATS. Do you think North Texas will lose this game? If so, just take UAB moneyline.

Oklahoma +6 at Alabama – They want you to take Alabama. All the Tide have to do is win by a touchdown. It should be simple. I’m not falling for it. If the line were 7.5, I’d take Bama. But this number is too weird.

Penn State at Michigan State +7 – Why is Penn State favored? And by that much? Because they almost beat Indiana last week? MSU has covered four (4) straight games as a dawg. Both of these teams suck. I’d take the OVER but I’m worried about these teams’ ability to score against each other. You may think this line is similar and fishy, like the game above, but it’s not. It’s just wrong. Trust me.

NC State +14.5 at Miami (FL) – Makes total sense to fade me on this one. I don’t watch either team that much. But Mario Cristobal’s Hurricanes usually drop off late in the season and his team is 2-4 ATS in November since 2024. This year, Miami is 1-3 ATS in the last four (4) games. NC State upset Georgia Tech a couple weeks ago and are coming off a bye. Maybe we catch the Wolfpack at the right time.

UCF at Texas Tech -23.5 – The Red Raiders are 9-0 ATS in games QB Behren Morton has started this year. Morton is probable for this game.

Memphis +3 at ECU – I have this game as Memphis -3. ECU is only favored because of what they’ve done recently: won three straight games 41-27, 45-14, 48-22, but those opponents’ combined record is 8-20 and 3-9 in the AAC. ECU only covered the spread in two of those games. Memphis got upset at by Tulane on national TV their last time out. But Memphis is the better team. 8-2 SU and ATS and 2-0 ATS as a dawg this season. Tigers ml.

North Carolina +5.5 at Wake Forest – UNC is just playing good football right now. They’ve covered three of the last four won two straight games. The defense has been good, giving up 10, 15, 17 and 21 points in the last four. In Wake’s last three games, they’ve scored 7, 13 and 16 points. I’m not sure about taking the UNDER (38.5) but I am sure about taking UNC.

Florida at Ole Miss -11.5 – Just one of those lines you look at and immediately know which side you’re taking.

Utah -8.5 at Baylor – I just have a problem with Baylor. They’re 2-7 ATS and 1-4 ATS at home. Utah is 7-2 ATS. There’s not much else to this one.

UCLA at Ohio State -32.5 – The honeymoon is over. UCLA has lost two straight. Ryan Day knows how to play against Nico (Bucks beat Vols 42-17 in Columbus last year). OSU’s defense is even better this year. UCLA should not score double digits this game.

Mississippi State at Mizzou -7 – Tailing the Insider.

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SEC Insider Picks of the Weekend

Last week: 1-2 / 2025 record: 15-18 / Since 2022: 69-77-3

*the following is verbatim*

3 weeks to go. I’ve been about as disappointed in myself as the Louisiana Governor is in Brian Kelly and Scott Woodward. If you’re fading me, congrats thus far. It’s time to go play spoiler and win the year on a high note.

Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (3-7 in 2025 / 17-20-1 overall): TCU at BYU -3 – Get right spot for BYU here after getting beat down last week. 8:15PM kick in Provo? Expect the fans to be all hopped up on Sugar and ready to go. Cougars by 10+.

Mississippi State at Missouri -7 – Look for Missouri to run silly on Miss State here. I think Zollers has some good tools and should settle in here with another week of practice. Tough to play that A&M D in your first start. Tigers roll.

Arizona at Cincinnati -6 – My friends in Cincinnati think the Bearcats can still win the Big12. If that’s the case, you go and beat this AZ team by a TD. Welcome to Nip at Noon you west coasters.

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Prem League Advisor Pick of the Weekend

2025 record: 3-6 / Since 2023: 11-12

Bye week.

Where Griff was WRONG:

Oklahoma State at Kansas -24.5: “’I’m gonna continue to bet against OK St until they prove to be competitive.’ I wrote that three weeks ago. I wrote it two weeks ago. I wrote it last week. I will write it again next week.” – Kansas won 38-21. It had to end sometime.

UCF +3 at Baylor: “Baylor is 1-7 ATS this year. Like Texas, you cannot trust this team as a favorite. They’ve lost two straight after coming off a bye. UCF has covered in two straight and they are coming off their bye week.” – Baylor won 30-3.

Georgia Tech -5.5 at NC State: “Haynes King and the Yellow Jackets are for real. In year’s past, NC State would be enticing to take in this spot. But the Wolfpack have lost 4 of the last 5 games SU and ATS (its only win was against Campbell (?)). Tech has covered three straight games and are 2-1 ATS on the road this year.” – NC State won 48-36.

Where Griff was RIGHT:

Navy at North Texas -6.5: “This week’s “I Really Just Wanna Bet On This Team” Game of the Week (2-0 this season).” – Mean Green won 31-17.

Army at Air Force UNDER 48.5: “This game has gone UNDER in every game for the last 11 years.” – 12 straight years now. Army won 20-17.

Pitt -14 at Stanford: “Pitt is 4-0 ATS since making the QB change…I’m gonna keep riding the hot hand.” – Pitt won 35-20.

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Last week: 7-11-1 / In 2025: 76-71-5 / Since 2022: 330-315-9

Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (In 2025: 3-7 / Overall: 20-20-1): Indiana -14.5 at Penn State

BYU at Texas Tech -10.5

Ohio State -29.5 at Purdue

Texas A&M -6.5 at Mizzou

Oregon at Iowa +6.5

Duke at UConn +9.5

Auburn at Vandy -6.5

Stanford at North Carolina -7.5

LSU +10 at Alabama

Navy at Notre Dame -26.5

Florida at Kentucky +3

Nebraska at UCLA -1.5

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SEC Insider Picks of the Weekend

Last week: 2-1 / 2025 record: 14-16 / Since 2022: 68-75-3

*the following is verbatim*

Rocky Flop last week. Remind me to never buy into a potential atmosphere play again. Nonetheless a positive week.

Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (3-6 in 2025 / 17-19-1 overall): Florida -3 at Kentucky – This Gator team probably should’ve beat Georgia last week. They flashed and you can tell they have plenty of dudes on each side of the ball. I like Billy 2.0 and think UK is about as bad as it gets. Give me the Gators here to bounce back.

Texas A&M -6.5 at Mizzou – I’ve been a doubter but I’ve been proven wrong I believe. Drink could have 1 foot out the door as he is a hot name for these open jobs. The players hear that stuff. Distraction alert. Gig Em.

Oregon -6.5 at Iowa – Oregon has all of their goals ahead of them. Lanning knows he’s got to build this thing to a crescendo as the years closes. Early and often for the Ducks. I see them winning by 10+.

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Prem League Advisor Pick of the Weekend

2025 record: 3-5 / Since 2023: 11-11

*the following is verbatim*

Arsenal ML + Chelsea ML -119

Prem advisor has never been so low. Loser of 2 straight and 3 of his/her last 4. They/them need a bye week but the show must go on. Arsenal is a wagon and we should have been fading wolves every week. I see both Arsenal and Chelsea cruising on Saturday