I placed some futures in my Week 1 blog. There was more bad than good…
Ohio State: under 10.5 wins (-140): “Kinda shocked it was -140 to the under. I thought I would be a contrarian with this pick. They went all in last season, Last Dance-style, and it worked but the follow-up is usually underwhelming in these situations. I think they lose three games.” – Big miss.
Penn State: over 10.5 wins (-105): “They’re trying to be this year’s Buckeyes. They plucked DC Jim Knowles from Columbus, Allar is back, they got a bunch of dudes who returned instead of going to the draft. Everyone doubted Ryan Day the same way they are doubting James Franklin. I’m not going to ignore the similarities. Not picking them to win it all, but if their only loss is to tOSU, they hit this number.” – B1G miss.
Indiana: over 8.5 win (+100): “I got to.” – B1G hit.
Vanderbilt: under 5.5 wins (-125): “Last year was cute. Everyone has the book on Pavia and Co. now. Vandy is going back to the shitter of the SEC.” – That didn’t turn out well.
Alabama: over 9.5 wins (-120): “Even after last year, they’re still Alabama. Deboer gets his OC Ryan Grubb back, who he worked with at Washington when Penix was the QB. The Bama QB Simpson has been riding the pine for two years and got a chance to learn Deboer’s system. It wouldn’t shock me if they go 12-0.” – 10-2 (as of now) but we’ll take that!
Now to last week’s games…
Where Griff was WRONG:
Miami (FL) at Pitt +7: “I’m going to keep riding the ‘Duz Cruise.’ The only game Pitt has not covered since switching QBs was against Notre Dame, the game Narduzzi said didn’t matter. Miami will lose, Notre Dame will win their game, making things easier on the CFP Committee.” – Miami won 38-7.
UAB at Tulsa -9.5: “UAB is bad vibes. They got guys stabbing their own teammates, only 3-8 ATS and they haven’t covered in four straight…Feel free to fade, but it’s trouble in paradise for the Blazers.” – UAB won 31-24.
LSU at Oklahoma -10: “I’m not sure how LSU is gonna score in this game. They’re averaging 15 ppg since BK got fired. Now, I don’t think Oklahoma puts up a lot of points either. Also, I’m too much of a pussy to take the UNDER 36.5. But Oklahoma will win 24-9.” – Should’ve taken the under. OU won 17-13.
Where Griff was RIGHT:
Texas A&M at Texas +2.5: “…I think Texas A&M has not been tested by a complete team since playing Notre Dame more than two months ago. Texas is not complete. But they are more capable than the rest of the shit fucks the Aggies have been playing the last couple months.” – Texas won 27-17.
Cincinnati at TCU -3.5: “The Cardiac Cats are in full-on cardiac arrest. Losers of 3 straight, SU and ATS. UC fans will be calling for Scott Satterfield’s job again this offseason.” – TCU won 45-23.
Virginia Tech at Virginia -8.5: “It’s not the James Franklin era yet. I think UVA has a little chip on their shoulder, too…Virginia was +5.5 at Duke last week and won 34-17. I think they feel disrespected by that line…Virginia wins 31-11.” – Virginia did win by 20 points, 27-7.
Now, let’s get to this week’s picks.
Last week: 12-12 / In 2025: 114-103-6 / Since 2022: 368-347-10
Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (In 2025: 5-10 / Overall: 22-23-1): B1G: Indiana +4 vs OSU (in Indianapolis, IN) – You thought.
Sun Belt: Troy at James Madison -23.5 – The Dukes need all the style points they can get.
Conference USA: Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State +2.5 – Jax State is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS at home this season. They already beat Kennesaw State this season, on November 15th, 35-26. I don’t know anything else about these teams.
AAC: North Texas -2.5 at Tulane – This blog has enjoyed the fruits of betting on the Mean Green for a while now. I’m not stopping now.
Mountain West: UNLV +4.5 at Boise State – Another game I don’t know anything about. Boise has beaten UNLV 9 straight times, including earlier this season in Boise, 56-31. Both teams are 5-1 ATS this year. Whatever.
Big 12: BYU vs Texas Tech -12.5 (in Arlington, TX) – Like North Texas, I just can’t turn away from betting on TTU. They have covered every game that QB Behren Morten has started. Why will it change this week?
MAC: Miami (OH) +2.5 vs Western Michigan (in Detroit, MI) – Love and Honor. Since 2005, in this conference championship game, dawgs are 14-5-1 ATS.
SEC: Georgia vs Alabama +2.5 (in Atlanta, GA) – Kirby has a Bama problem (1-7 SU and 3-5 ATS vs the Tide). Georgia didn’t even wanna be in this game either. Playing in the SEC Championship feels like a punishment. Bama wants to be here.
ACC: Duke vs Virginia -3.5 (in Charlotte, NC) – I like where my head was at with Virginia last week: they’re playing like they’ve been disrespected all year. Hypothetically, Duke winning would be funny because it means the ACC would probably be left out of the playoff. Realistically, Duke is not going to win, or cover. Virginia wins by two touchdowns.
SEC Insider Picks of the Weekend
Last week: 2-1 / 2025 record: 22-20 / Since 2022: 76-79-3
*the following is verbatim*
One last dance. All of the marbles on the line. All you fuckers counted us out. It got so bad that the Advisor and I were trying to figure out ways to kill ourselves off of this blog. Griff even threatened to expose our identity if we didn’t shape up. We scratched, we clawed. Now we have a chance to go out as winners, or [sic] atleast as .500 bettors…
Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (6-7 in 2025 / 20-20-1 overall): Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State +2.5 – “What’s better than a home team getting points?” – Brent Musburger. I love this Jacksonville State team. They say it’s hard to beat the same team twice. That theory be damned. Cocks win The C-USA Title.
Miami (OH) +2.5 vs Western Michigan – Miami topped Western Michigan back in October. New QB at the [sic] healm for the Red Hawks. Same result incoming. 3rd straight MAC Championship for Miami. Do they start to build the statue for Coach Chuck Martin when he brings this one home?
Georgia -2.5 vs Alabama – As I’ve always said, it’s hard to beat the same team twice. Kirby Smart is 3-0 when facing a team for the 2nd time in a season. both teams are banged up. I’ve been down on Georgia but looking back, Bama played damn near perfect to beat them the first go round. Dawgs.
Ohio State -4 vs Indiana – I just think the Buckeyes have more horses here on both sides of the ball. This should be a great game but at the end of the day, defense wins championships. Buckeyes D should slow down the O and the Buckeyes O should score plenty. I’m not buying the distractions with Hartline leaving. Ryan Day is too good of a coach to let that happen.
Prem League Advisor Pick of the Weekend
2025 record: 5-6 / Since 2023: 13-12
*the following is verbatim*
Liverpool ML -120
Now most people would say, “Well since AI picked a winner last week, let’s go back to AI.” Let me tell you something, run from AI, build hard skills, escape the matrix, it’s a bubble.
Anyway, Liverpool has been garbage recently and I think we are getting some value here. Leeds is on my “Never bet again” list so this is a perfect storm. Let’s get 3 in a row and end the season strong
Griffin Weinberg 