I’m THANKFUL for many things this year.
For Joe Burrow, telling the haters and losers to “Kiss-my-anthia” and delivering the Bengals a Thanksgiving win over the Ravens (h/t the defense).
For Labatt Blue, the beer I consumed while sitting at Remie’s Tavern after working 8.5 long, hard, strenuous hours on Thanksgiving Day.
For 4-wheel drive, for which our company cars are equipped with that allowed me to navigate my way through a literal blizzard the last two days while still finding a way to do my job.
For snow tires, for which my 2016 Toyota Corolla is now equipped with that makes traversing through 10-15 inches of snow and 55 mph winds much easier.
For myself, for not turning into Edward Snowed-in in the midst of an actual fucking blizzard.
For this blog, for providing all of you a total record of 15-6-1 on picks last week (h/t SEC Insider going 3-0 and Prem League Advisor going 1-0).
And for reflection, for which we must do in order to keep improving as people, and as gamblers…
Where Griff was WRONG:
Louisville +2.5 at SMU: “Weird line alert…SMU by a field goal is too easy. Louisville is also 3-0 ATS on the road this year.” – SMU won 38-6.
Kansas +4.5 at Iowa State: “Jayhawks are 3-0 ATS vs Iowa State each of the last three seasons. Kansas was dawgs each game…This game is a pickem in my book.” – Iowa State won 38-14.
Kansas State at Utah -17.5: “KSU had a moment of redemption for a couple weeks but it’s all gone now…Utah has won three straight games by a combined 104 points. Don’t be afraid to take the OVER 51.5 either.” – Shoulda taken the over. Utah won 51-47.
Where Griff was RIGHT:
Illinois at Wisconsin +8.5: “I’m betting on the Badgers to pull off another upset at home. Moneyline is probably the play.” – Wisconsin won 27-10.
Pitt +2.5 at Georgia Tech: “This one does matter to Pitt. Let’s see if Narduzzi can back up his words.” – Pitt won 42-28.
Baylor at Arizona -7: “I love betting against Baylor. They’re now 2-8 ATS…Some may see this as a letdown game for Arizona after taking down UC in Nippert Stadium. That makes me laugh out loud. This offseason, UC fans were shitting on the program and Coach Satterfield. No one expected the Cats to be good this year. The only thing that was confirmed last week was that UC is who we thought they were: frauds. Arizona is playing good ball. Take them.” – Arizona won 41-17.
*BONUS – BYU -2.5 at Cincinnati: “Please read what I wrote about UC regarding the Baylor/Arizona game.” – BYU won 26-14.
Let’s get to this week’s picks.
Last week: 11-6-1 / In 2025: 102-91-6 / Since 2022: 356-335-10
Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (In 2025: 4-10 / Overall: 21-23-1): Temple at North Texas -19.5 – Do you really think it’s gonna stop this week? If so, just take Temple moneyline.
Ole Miss -7 at Mississippi State – I’m not worried about any of the Lane rumors. Kiffin is 4-1 in the Egg Bowl, with wins by 12, 10, 10 and 7 points.
Utah at Kansas OVER 59.5 – Course correction from last week. Utah games have gone OVER in four straight. Utah is averaging 51 ppg over that span. Strangely, the Utes allowed 7 points to Colorado, then 14 to UC, then 28 to Baylor then 47 to Kansas St. I don’t think Utah will allow Kansas to score 100 points, but I’m confident the numbers will add up in our favor.
Iowa at Nebraska +6.5 – This is fadeable because I’m just following recent history. The last time this game was decided by more than 7 points was in 2017 (Iowa 56-14). Nebraska has only won once since 2018, but they are 4-2-1 ATS in that time.
Georgia -14 vs Georgia Tech – I feel like this is gonna bite me in the ass, because of the rivalry-ness of this game, but I cannot come to grips with Georgia Tech being able to compete with the Dawgs. Their seasons are going in opposite directions. Also, in 2018 and 2021, when UGA failed to cover 40+ point spreads the week before this game, Georgia ended up covering against the Yellow Jackets.
Texas A&M at Texas +2.5 – I think A&M does not have a great defense. I think Georgia is the best team in the SEC. I think Texas has figured out how to score the football (except for scoring 10 at Georgia, the best SEC team). I think Texas A&M has not been tested by a complete team since playing Notre Dame more than two months ago. Texas is not complete. But they are more capable than the rest of the shit fucks the Aggies have been playing the last couple months.
Ohio State at Michigan +10 – It all comes down to Bryce Underwood. If he game-manages, Michigan will cover, maybe even win. If he looks like a scared freshman, OSU will cover. After last year, how can you trust the Bucks in this game?
Miami (FL) at Pitt +7 – I’m going to keep riding the “Duz Cruise.” The only game Pitt has not covered since switching QBs was against Notre Dame, the game Narduzzi said didn’t matter. Miami will lose, Notre Dame will win their game, making things easier on the CFP Committee.
Texas Tech -23.5 at West Virginia – Texas Tech has still covered every game that QB Behren Morton has started. He is expected to start again on Saturday. Tech has also beaten West Virginia by 38 and 37 points in two of the last three seasons. Maybe the OVER in this game could be good, too.
Houston +3 at Baylor – This line makes no sense. Baylor has no reason to be favored. Typically, this would mean I should take Baylor, but I can’t do it. They’re 2-9 ATS. Maybe the Bears are favored because Dave Aranda got the vote of confidence this week? I don’t know. I just can’t back them.
UAB at Tulsa -9.5 – UAB is bad vibes. They got guys stabbing their own teammates, only 3-8 ATS and they haven’t covered in four straight. Looks like Tulsa has covered 4 of its last 5 games (2-1 ATS as a favorite in 2025). Feel free to fade, but it’s trouble in paradise for the Blazers.
Oregon -7 at Washington – I think the sharp play here is Oregon 2H -3.5, but I’m not here to give frisky picks like that. It’s gonna be a competitive game, and first half, but Oregon will pull away in the second half. 6.5 is obviously a much better number, so look for that, but Oregon should be able to handle business.
LSU at Oklahoma -10 – I’m not sure how LSU is gonna score in this game. They’re averaging 15 ppg since BK got fired. Now, I don’t think Oklahoma puts up a lot of points either. Also, I’m too much of a pussy to take the UNDER 36.5. But Oklahoma will win 24-9.
Vandy +3 at Tennessee – This could be the last chance we get to bet on Diego Pavia in a meaningful game (bowl games don’t matter anymore and a Vandy loss means no CFP). We don’t need Vandy to win, we just need them to cover, and the Dores are 9-2 ATS this season.
Penn State -13.5 at Rutgers – The Scarlet Knights (5-6) will not go bowling. Recently, they did not cover at OSU, beat a downtrodden Maryland team, got blown out by an Illinois team that is not as good as we thought they were and barely beat Purdue. Meanwhile, State Penn has won two straight and covered 4 of its last 5 games. The Nittany Lions (5-6) WILL go bowling.
Cincinnati at TCU -3.5 – The Cardiac Cats are in full-on cardiac arrest. Losers of 3 straight, SU and ATS. UC fans will be calling for Scott Satterfield’s job again this offseason.
James Madison -21.5 at Coastal Carolina – JMU needs style points to convince the Committee to let them in the CFP. Also, they have beaten Coastal by 32, 42 and 40 points each of the last three seasons.
Virginia Tech at Virginia -8.5 – It’s not the James Franklin era yet. I think UVA has a little chip on their shoulder, too. They’ve been painted as a weak top-25 team this whole season but they can still win the ACC. Virginia was +5.5 at Duke last week and won 34-17. I think they feel disrespected by that line. Virginia Tech is going to have trouble scoring in this game. Virginia wins 31-11.
Maryland +4 at Michigan State – It’s a classic both-teams-suck-so-take-the-points game. In the B1G, Maryland is 1-7 and MSU is 0-8. MSU should be 3-point favorites just because it’s a home game so I’ll gladly take the extra point.
Rice at South Florida -28.5 – When USF wins, they cover the spread. When they lose, they do not cover. Do you think USF will lose this game? If so, just take Rice moneyline.
Alabama -5.5 at Auburn – Tailing the Insider but I hate this.
UCLA at USC OVER 58.5 – UCLA has allowed 56, 48 and 48 points in three of the last four games. USC has played two tough defenses in back-to-back weeks (Oregon and Iowa). The Trojans will benefit from playing a soft defense. But I don’t trust them to win by 23 (they haven’t done it vs a P4 team this season). Maybe USC TT o40.5 is a good play, but I’ll settle for the OVER.
Northwestern at Illinois -7.5 – Illinois’ only home loss this season is to Ohio State (also an ATS loss). The Illini are 5-0 ATS at home in the other games. Ignore the loss at Wisconsin last week. Just take Illinois.
Notre Dame -31.5 at Stanford – The Cardinal got their feel-good moment of the season when they beat Cal 31-10. The Notre Dame train is coming through.
SEC Insider Picks of the Weekend
Last week: 3-0 / 2025 record: 20-19 / Since 2022: 74-78-3
*the following is verbatim*
Don’t look now, but I think me and the advisor have got our swagger back. Feast week, Rivalry week, Thanksgiving Triple header. Who’s got it better than us?
❌outh Watering Pick of the Week (5-7 in 2025 / 19-20-1 overall): Ohio State -10 at Michigan – I think the dam finally breaks in this rivalry, and breaks big time. Surely this can’t go on forever. It’s clear OSU is the better team. Day seems to have a different demeanor this week. The gold pants are coming back to the Buckeye State.
Alabama –5.5 at Auburn – Normally I’d buy into all the spooky hocus pocus juju that goes into playing this game at Jordan-Hare, but I’ve grown. I’ve learned. I still remember that stretch where no one was playing better football than the Tide. Back against the wall fighting for a chance at a playoff birth and SEC title appearance. RTR.
Vandy at Tennessee -3 – Fuck Diego Pavia. Do we really think Vandy should be in the conversation to play in this post season tournament? Do we really think TN is going to let Vanderbilt win the state championship? In Neyland Stadium? And leave the door open to a playoff birth? I still like the pieces on this Vols team. GBO
Prem League Advisor Pick of the Weekend
2025 record: 4-6 / Since 2023: 12-12
*the following is verbatim*
Both-Teams-To-Score (BTTS): Everton vs Newcastle -132
I was accused falsely last week of using ChatGPT to make picks, you know what that means? This week ChatGPT will be making our pick. “Given both teams have showed tendencies to concede — especially Newcastle away — the “both teams score” market might offer reasonable value”
Griffin Weinberg 