Where Griff was WRONG:
Auburn at Arkansas -3: “Auburn is officially dead to this blog. Hugh Freeze is getting fired. Jackson Arnold is not HIM. Arkansas is due for a win under Petrino and it will come at the hand of the Tigers.” – Auburn won 33-24.
Illinois +3.5 at Washington: “This line SCREAMS Washington. That’s not even bait. It’s stupidity. All Illinois has done this year is win and cover in every single game besides the two games vs the two best teams in the country, OSU and Indiana. People have been hyping up Washington all year as “under-appreciated,” but they are 3-4 ATS. I think this line is a joke and recommend taking Illinois ml as well.” – Washington won 42-25.
Houston at Arizona St -7: “I’ve enjoyed betting on Houston most of this season, which means I am more than qualified to know when to bet against them. We faded the Cougars against Texas Tech a few weeks ago. ASU has a healthy Sam Leavitt and is ranked again (#24). I like the Sun Devils at home.” – Houston won 24-16.
Where Griff was RIGHT:
Oklahoma State at Texas Tech -37.5: “’I’m gonna continue to bet against OK St until they prove to be competitive.’ I wrote that two weeks ago. I wrote it last week. I will write it again next week.” – Texas Tech won 42-0.
South Florida at Memphis +6: “Both teams are 6-1 SU and ATS. Why is South Florida #18 in the AP poll but Memphis is unranked? I don’t know. Memphis, as a 24 point favorite, lost to UAB last week. Maybe UAB got a little jolt from firing Trent Dilfer and, perhaps, Memphis was looking ahead to this game? Meanwhile, USF had “the two best wins in the country” to begin the season: “upsetting” then-ranked Boise State (now 5-2) and “upsetting” then-ranked Florida (just fired head coach) before losing 49-12 at Miami (FL). I think these teams are equals. This line is way too big.” – Memphis won 34-31.
Virginia at UNC +10.5: “After examining Virginia’s schedule thus far, I’ve determined they are not that serious of a contender (full disclosure: I have not watched a single snap of theirs this season). Their best win is a 30-27 win at Louisville three weeks ago as a 6.5 point dawg. UofL is a fine team at 5-1, but last week’s win at Miami (FL) was more about the Canes looking like ass and Carson Beck throwing four (4) picks. UNC managed to go to California last week and cover as 7.5 point dawgs. I think they show up for this one.” – Virginia won 17-16.
Last week: 9-6-1 / In 2025: 69-60-4 / Since 2022: 323-304-8
Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (In 2025: 3-6 / Overall: 20-19-1): Oklahoma State at Kansas -24.5 – “I’m gonna continue to bet against OK St until they prove to be competitive.” I wrote that three weeks ago. I wrote it two weeks ago. I wrote it last week. I will write it again next week.
Penn State TT u13.5 and at Ohio State -19.5 – Set it and forget it.
Vandy +3 at Texas – I cannot trust Texas in any game that they are favored. Why would you?
West Virginia at Houston -12.5 – The Cougars are 4-1 ATS as a favorite this year. Rich Rodriguez is 8-15 ATS as a double-digit dawg in his career. WVU has lost five straight games SU. All bad vibes for the Mountaineers and Houston is still playing for a chance to get to the Playoff.
Navy at North Texas -6.5 – This week’s “I Really Just Wanna Bet On This Team” Game of the Week (2-0 this season). The Mean Green (7-1) are the best team not enough people are talking about. They beat Army 45-38 a little over a month ago so we don’t have to be concerned about the military academy stuff. UNT is also 6-2 ATS and Navy is 2-5 ATS.
UCF +3 at Baylor – Baylor is 1-7 ATS this year. Like Texas, you cannot trust this team as a favorite. They’ve lost two straight after coming off a bye. UCF has covered in two straight and they are coming off their bye week.
Army at Air Force UNDER 48.5 – This game has gone UNDER in every game for the last 11 years.
Georgia -7 at Florida – Georgia has been favored in this game five (5) straight years now. The Dawgs covered the last four by an average of 21.5 points. Do you really think this Florida team is any better than the last four? We will find out if Billy Napier was the problem or if the Gators are just a B-tier program now.
Texas Tech at Kansas State +7.5 – This is crazy for me, considering all the praise I’ve given Texas Tech and how many times I’ve called Kansas State frauds. But I think ‘gotcha culture’ is coming for the Red Raiders. They host BYU next week, the best team remaining on their schedule. KSU has covered four (4) straight games now, three (3) straight as dawgs.
Michigan State at Minnesota -3.5 – I’m reading way too much about Michigan State probably firing its coach after the season. The Spartans (3-5) have lost five straight games SU. Minnesota isn’t much better with a 5-3 overall record, but no one is talking about PJ Fleck getting fired. I understand if the .5 in 3.5 will scare you away. This is a very fadeable pick.
Pitt -14 at Stanford – Pitt is 4-0 ATS since making the QB change. This is the biggest they’ve been favored in that stretch, and they got the cross-country game, but Stanford also went to Miami (FL) last week and lost 42-7 so they could have some jet lag. I’m gonna keep riding the hot hand.
Mississippi State +4.5 at Arkansas – Like Texas and Baylor, why is Arkansas favored? The Bulldogs, meanwhile, are 4-1 ATS as dawgs this year.
Purdue at Michigan -21 – I hate this pick. Michigan does not blow teams out (biggest win this year over a P4 team is by 17 points). Purdue does not get blown out (one loss this year by more than 21 points). But last week, Michigan scored 30 points for the first time since Week 1 with Sherrone Moore coaching and I think they might be finding a groove on offense. Confused yet? Me too. Don’t tail me on this one.
South Carolina at Ole Miss -12.5 – Tailing the Insider.
Georgia Tech -5.5 at NC State – Haynes King and the Yellow Jackets are for real. In year’s past, NC State would be enticing to take in this spot. But the Wolfpack have lost 4 of the last 5 games SU and ATS (its only win was against Campbell (?)). Tech has covered three straight games and are 2-1 ATS on the road this year.
Oklahoma at Tennessee -3 – I’ve lost faith in Oklahoma. Mateer coming back too early from his injury ruined it for the Sooners. Neyland@Night.
Wake Forest at Florida State -10.5 – Mainstream Bias Pick of the Week. I loved Wake Forest. The bias got to me. FSU is coming off a bye and Mike Norvell is 9-2 ATS after a bye. I guess Thomas Castellanos was injured but now he’s expected to play? And FSU is getting some big-time cornerback back from injury? The Noles have lost four (4) straight ATS. Wake Forest has won four (4) straight ATS. I’m not following the logic, I’m following the bias.
Hawaii +1.5 at San Jose State – Hawaii is 6-2 ATS. San Jose St is 3-4 ATS. Fall (back) asleep and wake up Sunday morning with an extra hour of sleep and a win.
SEC Insider Picks of the Weekend
Last week: 1-2 / 2025 record: 12-15 / Since 2022: 66-74-3
*the following is verbatim*
Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (3-5 in 2025 / 17-18-1 overall): Oklahoma at Tennessee -2.5 – Dark [sic for ‘mode’ not ‘made’] made – Activated. Neyland black out incoming. I’ve got goose bumps just thinking about it. I don’t think Oklahoma is as good as they were made out to be. I like this TN team a lot. If Aguilar can get time, he will pick this Sooner D [sic for ‘apart’ not ‘a part’] a part
South Carolina at Ole Miss -12.5 – Can Beamer get his team up to play after last weeks heart break? I think the players have to be [sic] of his corn ball talk with no results this year. Rebs at home are no joke. Look for some style points. I see Lane wanting to stick it to Beamer
Penn State at Ohio State -19.5 – Why the hell not? Has Penn State shown you anything to that makes you think they can keep this within 3 scores? I can’t remember a team as dominant yet feels somehow no one really talk about them like the Buckeyes. They are a freight train and no one can stop them besides themselves at this point. Bucks – B1G!
Prem League Advisor Pick of the Weekend
2025 record: 3-4 / Since 2023: 11-10
*the following is verbatim*
Brentford Double Chance -120
Sitting on my couch last Saturday watching our parlay lose killed me. This is a get right week. I am introducing a new strategy called, “Fade the easy ML bet [sic for no punctuation]” Crystal Palace is -110 to win. A simple [sic for ‘bettor’ not ‘better’] better would say, wow -110 that’s easy, I like that number, it reminds me of the bets I normally make! We are not a simple [sic] better, we take the opposite. Brentford win or draw.
Griffin Weinberg 