The ship is sinking but there is still a chance to make it out alive.
I was 8-9 last week with a couple of live bets on Georgia 
and Texas A&M (L). The SEC Insider couldn’t hit water if he/she/they fell out of a boat. And the Prem League Advisor may as well be little Jack falling towards the bottom of the ocean.
But Rose has enough room on that piece of wood, and we can still survive, Mythbuster’s be damned. The three of us LOSERS. will float in the water for a little while, lose some weight, then hop on that shit and make our way to land. We are coming out of this on top. Conference championship week is for winners. And we will be winners. Forget everything that’s happened over the last month-plus. Tonight (Friday) is when we get back on track.
I am betting on all the conference title games. Can’t wait. As usual, here are the stats from Evan Abrams at the Action Network I like to use.
Let’s get to the picks.
Last week: 8-9 / In 2024: 99-99-2 / Since 2022: 238-234-4
Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (Last week: 0-1 / 2024 record: 7-7 / Overall: 16-13-1): ACC: SMU vs Clemson +3 – This is such a great spot for Clemson because 1) they have no business being in this game, 2) the end of the season has been chaotic so Clemson will probably end up stealing a spot in the playoff and 3) Clemson has lost three consecutive games ATS entering the title game and, over the last decade, teams entering a conference championship on a 3+ game ATS losing streak are 7-0 SU/ATS in the title game. I’m definitely sprinkling money line as well. Clemson winning and SMU getting left out while Bama gets an at-large just makes too much sense.
Conference USA: Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State -4 – I’ve not watched one snap from either of these teams this year, so I’m relying on the stats. They played last week and WKU won on a walk-off field goal. Jax State was a half point favorite. This is the fifth time a conference championship will be played when the opponents played each other the previous week. The team that won the previous game went 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS in the the title game. JSU it is.
Mountain West: UNLV vs Boise State -3.5 – Boise State has already beaten UNLV this season, 29-24, at the end of October. I don’t care about betting stats for this game, I’m just betting on Boise to not screw this up and to give us Ashton Jeanty against a P4 team on a national stage. It would be very upsetting to not see Jeanty in the playoff. I appreciate UNLV getting to this point with all the Sluka drama they went through earlier in the year but Jeanty is the storyline. He had 128 yards on 33 carries in the previous game, his lowest total this season. He’s going well over that tonight (Friday). A stat, though: UNLV has lost three straight ATS vs Boise State.
AAC: Tulane at Army +5 and 1H +2.5 – Tulane blew it on Thanksgiving and I think they blow it again tonight (Friday). All they had to do was beat Memphis, at home, as 12.5 point favorites and then they would be in line to get into the playoff. Fifteen teams have entered their conference title game of a SU loss as a double-digit favorite; they are 5-10 SU/ATS in their title games. Army has lost two straight games ATS. Teams going into the conference title game on a 2+ game ATS losing streak are 24-15 ATS in the championship game since 2010. The first half bet is something I did a decent amount earlier this year. Since 2014, when service academy teams are underdogs vs non-service teams, they are 96-66 ATS in the first half. Army is at home, too. They could easily win this game.
Big 12: Arizona State vs Iowa State +1.5 – I’m going against my gut on this one. Arizona State is the obvious choice because of how well they are playing but I think Iowa State has at least one more late game-winning drive in them. ASU has the best player on the field in Cam Skattebo but I love ISU quarterback Rocco Becht. He’s gonna be a top ten pick in a couple of years. And Matt Campbell is great as an underdog, going 36-23-3 ATS at Iowa State and Toledo. If they can find a way to slow down Skattebo, Iowa State will come away with this one.
SEC: Texas vs Georgia – The Lisan Al-Gaib will be making his pick on College Gameday Saturday morning. Whatever the Maud’Dib says, goes. As written.
MAC: Ohio vs Miami (OH) ml -125 – Love and Honor. An aesthetically pleasing color matchup in Detroit. This should be a fun game. I’m going with Miami because of how good Ohio is playing. The Bobcats are on a five game SU/ATS win streak. Since 2017, teams playing in their Conference Championship game on a 5+ game SU and ATS win streak are 2-5 SU and 0-6-1 ATS. Arizona State also qualify under this stat, just FYI.
Sun Belt: Marshall +5.5 at Louisiana Lafayette – Two more teams I know nothing about, Jon Snow. But Marshall is 5-0 ATS as dawgs this season. That’s all.
B1G: Penn State vs Oregon ml -116 – I’m not trusting James Franklin in a big game. Against top five opponents, Franklin is 1-16 SU and 5-12 ATS. I’m just not trusting him. As for the -116 I got, that was a profit boost on Draft Kings. Oregon is -164 on the money line but, with the boost, I felt fine taking them to just win instead of -3.5.
SEC Insider Picks of the Weekend
Last week: 1-2 / 2024 record: 19-33-1 / Overall: 52-58-3
*the following is verbatim*
If you’ve been fading me I reckon you’ve had a pretty big year at the window. Let’s see if we can finish on a high note.
Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (3-8-1 in 2024 / 14-12-1 overall): MAC Championship: Ohio vs Miami (OH) ml -125 – All hail Chuck Martin. Miami’s beat em once and I think they’ve got the goods to beat em again. Better coach, better academics. Give me the Red Hawks.
SEC Championship: Texas vs Georgia +2.5 – if you can get Georgia, with points, in the state of Georgia, you have to take it, right? Do we really think Texas is going to just tim waltz their way to a conference championship in year 1? Think again.
Big 12 Championship: Iowa State vs Arizona State -1.5 – Who’s hotter than Coach Dilly and the Sun Devils? What a story this has been. Iowa State is boring and wins ugly. Skattebo goes for 140 yards at 2TDs. Run the Damn Ball.
Prem League Advisor Pick of the Weekend
Last week: 0-1 / 2024 record: 6-5 / Since 2023: 8-5
*the following is verbatim*
Liverpool ML + Man City ML parlay +127
“Yeah let’s bet on a team I haven’t watched all year.” Im (sic) not sure what I was thinking last week that’s on me. Let’s get back to betting on quality football teams. Liverpool is the best team in the league right now and Mo Salah is the best player in the league. City has been awful lately losing 4 out of their last 5. I think with that said, really good ML value for a top team in the league who will get back on track.
Griffin Weinberg 