Very bad.
We went 6-16. Basically everything that could go wrong, did go wrong. The SEC Insider went 0-3 (not surprised). The Prem League Advisor, though, handed us a Saturday morning winner.
Hectic week so no long write-up, but I have 12 Saturday plays for you. The Insider has a Friday game on their board and we’ll start Saturday with another dub on the pitch.
I am 1-0 this week after hitting on Kent State/Buffalo over 48.5. I got more stats from the Action Network’s Evan Abrams. Let’s have ourselves a great holiday weekend.
Last week: 6-16 / In 2024: 92-90-2 / Since 2022: 231-225-4
Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (Last week: 0-1 / 2024 record: 7-6 / Overall: 16-12-1): Tennessee at Vanderbilt +10.5: Vanderbilt is now 7-0 ATS as dawgs of 7 or more points. What makes you think this game is going to be any different? Tennessee is magically back in the CFP race and I got a feeling they could squander their chance at a bid. Last weekend was crazy enough to make me believe that Vandy could win this outright. I may just sprinkle it.
Michigan at Ohio State OVER 42.5: Since 2013, the over is a perfect 10-0 in Michigan and Ohio State matchups, going over the total by 16.6 PPG. You telling me that Ryan Day, with a 10x better roster than Michigan, doesn’t want to run up the score on Michigan? OSU may hit the over themselves! Set it and forget it.
Kansas -1 at Baylor: Kansas is the hottest team in the country and they need to win this to get bowl-eligible. I’m going to ride the wave.
Louisville at Kentucky +4: In their last five meetings, Kentucky is 5-0 SU/ATS vs. Louisville — the longest such streak for either team in the last 100 years. In the last four meetings Kentucky has entered, where they had a worse record than Louisville, the Wildcats won SU and ATS dating back to 2016. Kentucky is also 4-0 ATS as a home dawg this season.
Notre Dame at USC +7.5: As a favorite of 7 points or more vs. USC, Notre Dame is 7-2 SU but just 2-7 ATS over the last 40 years. The Fighting Irish haven’t covered the spread on the road in USC since 2012, losing four in a row, going 1-3 SU in those games. USC has confidence after switching QBs two games ago. Notre Dame hasn’t played any good, non-service academy offenses since beating Louisville, 31-24, on September 28th. If USC can have even a little bit of offensive success, they can cover.
Maryland at Penn State -24: James Franklin has won ten games in his coaching career by 3 pts or less, his teams are 10-0 SU/ATS in their next game, covering by almost 18 PPG. Over the last two seasons, as a favorite of 20-30 points, Penn State is 4-1 ATS (they didn’t cover vs UCLA this year).
Arizona State at Arizona TT o20.5 and OVER 53.5: Arizona is not going bowling, which means this is probably the last game QB Noah Fifita and WR Tetairoa McMillan will ever play together. They are longtime friends. T-Mac is going top-five in the draft next year. I think Arizona will throw the ball around and these two will want to have a huge game to end their careers. Arizona State has allowed every opponent to score 21 points besides Kansas State (14) and Utah (19). When Arizona State is favored, the over is 5-1 this year.
NC State at North Carolina -3 and OVER 54.5: Kinda like the above statement, this is it for Mack Brown. He’s been fired, but he’s still coaching this game. His guys are gonna have some more motivation to send out their coach on a high note. When NC State is an underdog, the over is 4-0 this year. NC State also needs to win to get to a bowl game. UNC can get scored on. I should take NC State to cover this game, but I think UNC will win. Just need them to hit that number.
Miami at Syracuse +11 and OVER 67: Every week, what do I say? When Miami plays a competent offense, take the over. I don’t care if it hasn’t hit for two straight weeks. Syracuse has scored 31, 33, 31 and 38 points recently. I’m not jumping off the wagon at this point. And for the spread? What gives you the confidence that Miami will win this one with ease? Every one of their games feels like a nail-biter, so I’ll take Syracuse in the dome.
Oklahoma at LSU -5.5: I know this may be a stupid bet but I’m betting on Oklahoma having a letdown after taking down Bama last week. That game could not have gone any better for the Sooners, but Jalen Milroe was terrible and may have lost that game for Bama by himself. Here’s the stat: From Oklahoma’s side, they’ve come off a SU win as an underdog twice under Brent Venables and lost its next game ATS both times. Why not?
Texas at Texas A&M +5.5: This goes back to last week when Mike Elko basically told the world that A&M was focused on Texas, not Auburn. So it was not surprising to see the Aggies lose to Auburn. I’m betting on Elko telling us the truth and Texas not being able to perform against quality opponents.
New Mexico -3 at Hawaii: Since 1990, teams with exactly five wins (who are coming off of a win), who face a team in the regular season, in Week 14 or later, who has four wins or less, are 37-12-1 SU and 29-20-1 ATS. New Mexico is 5-6 while Hawaii is 4-7. New Mexico just upset Washington State as 10.5 point dawgs (they won 38-35). Hawaii have lost two straight. 11pm EST kickoff. I just wanna wake up with a green check mark next to this game.
SEC Insider Picks of the Weekend
Last week: 0-3 / 2024 record: 18-31-1 / Overall: 51-56-3
*the following is verbatim*
Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (3-7-1 in 2024 / 14-11-1 overall): Michigan at Ohio State -20: This is the biggest day of Ryan Day’s life. He has to win this game. He has to avenge the last 3. He’s the world’s smallest man so I can see him puffing his chest and running this up, scoring late, etc. I would argue this may be his best team and they very well can win it all.
Georgia Tech at Georgia -19.5: I think the Georgia O has turned a corner the last 2 weeks. Big time atmosphere. You can’t “look ahead” to the SEC Championship when you don’t know who you will play.
Miami (FL) at Syracuse +11
I’ve got news for everyone, Miami isn’t that good. Cuse can score with them. This moment is very big for The U. I’m fading
Prem League Advisor Pick of the Weekend
Last week: 1-0 / 2024 record: 6-4 / Since 2023: 8-4
Ipswich Town Double Chance +105
*the following is verbatim*
This is a team I’ve been waiting to bet on. Finally get a line that is worth it. Recent promote this year, I watched them in the EFL last year a little but hand up haven’t gotten to watch much of them this year. Excited to support the little guy on Saturday
Griffin Weinberg 