DISAPPOINTED.
dis·ap·point·ed
adjective
Definition 1: (of hopes or expectations) prevented from being realized.
Definition 2: (of a person) sad or displeased because someone or something has failed to fulfill one’s hopes or expectations.
Origin: late Middle English (in the sense ‘deprive of a position’); from Old French desappointer .
I’m DISAPPOINTED. in myself.
As of last Sunday night, my record over the last five weeks was 34-37-1. That may not look terrible to the naked eye, but that is unacceptable by this blog’s standards. Overall this season, we still stand on the right side of history with a record of 75-62-2. But that number is beginning to smell like onions and ketchup. I tried to use POSITIVITY. last week to turn the tide but it resulted in a 4-5 week (3-5 on the blog but I live bet Georgia -3.5 when DJ Lagway went down with a hammy injury. Georgia won 34-20).
We weren’t all LOSERS. last week, though. It was great to see the SEC Insider finish 2-1. One of his/hers/not-sure’s picks was South Carolina +3 vs Texas A&M and this person even predicted an outright win for the Gamecocks. They did win, 44-20. Some sound logic used by the Insider last week has me feeling good about their prospects this week. However, the Mouth Watering Pick of the Week is still in fade territory. Just 3-5-1 this year with a big miss on Clemson last week. I’m gonna stay POSITIVE. It’s a 3-0 week for the Insider.
And how about the Prem League Advisor? The blog pick was Newcastle Double Chance -130, but this individual saw a sign: “A close companion of mine just started a book in which the main character is in the Premier League, the team he plays for… Blackcastle. I have a personal play on Newcastle ML +280.” Blackcastle beat Arsenal, 1-0, and got us started on a great note last Saturday. POSITIVE. vibes across the pond and I can’t wait to start 1-0 on this glorious day once again.
Now let’s get to why I’m DISAPPOINTED. in myself.
Where Griff was WRONG:
Navy -11 at Rice: “Yes, Rice fired their head coach this week…I’m not worried about that…I think Navy can loosen up with the Notre Dame game out of the way and play like a champion today.” Rice won 24-10. A colossal failure on the Toretto. I could not have been more confident in this. I’m gonna blame this loss on the game being delayed by weather for like five hours.
Oregon at Michigan UNDER 45: “Oregon is giving up 14 points or less to teams not named Ohio State or Boise State. Would you put Michigan’s offense in the same class as OSU or BSU? Didn’t think so…No matter what, the Wolverines aren’t putting up points here.” Michigan won 38-17. I shouldn’t have gotten too fancy and just taken the spread instead. I almost did. I’m not happy with myself about this one.
Louisville at Clemson -10.5: “No one has bet on more UofL games this season than me. We know the Cards have a bad defense. Clemson off a bye…they’re beating their ACC counterparts by an average of 19 points in six games. I don’t see why that changes here.” Louisville won 33-21. Clemson never had a chance. UofL outscored them 23-0 in the middle quarters. This is the official dagger in Clemson’s chances of getting to the CFP.
Where Griff was RIGHT:
Duke at Miami (FL) OVER 54.5: “If Miami is playing a competent offense, the over will hit.” Miami won 53-31 and almost hit the over themselves. They’ve only gone under the total once this year and it was against Florida State, a non-competent offense. Miami are at Georgia Tech today and the total is at 63.5. As of this writing, Haynes King is questionable to play. In two games without him, GT have only scored 13 and 6 points. If he plays, I’m gonna take the over. If he doesn’t I’m gonna stay away.
Kansas State -13 at Houston: “This is a dumb, illogical pick that I have no business making. I couldn’t help myself…You can fade this one with confidence.” Houston won 24-19. When I think that I know I’m wrong, I’m usually right about it. I’m good for at least one of these a week now which should result in an easy bet for you to make.
Today is gonna be a great day. I am starting the day at 2-0 after betting on MACtion earlier this week (Central Michigan TT u16.5 and Ohio -20.5). We’re gonna be special today. Let’s get to the picks.
Last week: 4-5 / In 2024: 75-62-2 / Since 2022: 214-197-4
Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (7-3 in 2024, 16-9-1 overall): Michigan at Indiana -14: What else do you need to see? The Hoosiers are THEM. IU hasn’t been favored against Michigan since 1968. This isn’t a look-ahead spot for IU since they have the bye next week. Michigan might be looking to put out the Cig for what the coach said in his first public appearance as Indiana’s coach. I think Cig wants to prove that statement right.
West Virginia at Cincinnati -4.5: I don’t think West Virginia are all that good. They’re 4-4 with a win over an FCS team and wins against Arizona (3-6), Oklahoma State (3-6) and Kansas (2-6). I don’t think UC is that much better but they got a win over Arizona State (6-2) and a home game after a bye week (WVU are also off a bye). The Cats are 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS as a favorite this year. I’m gonna roll with them in a close one.
Iowa State at Kansas +3: Yeah I know I just disrespected Kansas a little but I was just drawn to this one. Jayhawks have looked improved recently by beating Houston 42-14, losing a close rivalry game at Kansas State 29-27, then detoxing with a bye week. Iowa State didn’t have their fourth quarter magic in their first loss of the season to Texas Tech. Still, I feel like this line should be like 7.5 or higher. That’s just weird to me. Kansas it is.
Georgia at Ole Miss +3 and OVER 54.5: I think Georgia has proven to be the best team in the SEC, but they still got their flaws. Carson Beck has looked so bad in so many spots this year. He’s thrown eight interceptions his last three games. But Georgia has still managed to score 30 points in every game this year besides one (13 at Kentucky). Ole Miss can be scored on. I’m betting on Beck throwing a few INTs that’ll give Ole Miss a few more scoring opportunities. And Lane Kiffin loves being a home dawg. He’s 3-0 ATS in that situation at Ole Miss with one win each of the last three years, not counting COVID. Final score: Georgia 29, Ole Miss 28. Georgia forces a safety at some point in the game.
Colorado at Texas Tech OVER 62.5: It’s a lot of points but this is a fun game to bet on. Texas Tech has given up 59, 41 and 35 in three of their last five games. Colorado also has a vulnerable defense but they can score 40 points any random night. Shadeur isn’t worried about second semester. Texas Tech had that emotional win at Iowa State last week but now they can ride that momentum into a home game on FOX. I think both teams show up for this one.
South Carolina at Vanderbilt +4.5: Why are we doubting this team? At home? They’re 6-0 ATS as an underdog. This actually makes no sense. I took this line Thursday morning and it’s now at 6.5. I love it even more. I’m not as impressed about South Carolina’s win over Texas A&M last week cause they had a week to scout Marcel Reese. I think that LSU-A&M game says more about LSU’s in-game adjustments than anything else. Unless Pavia is not playing, you take Vandy as a dawg at home.
UCF at Arizona State OVER 55.5: Dumb illogical bet I have no business making. I seem to lose every one of these bets. I’ll stop one of these days.
Alabama at LSU +3: Also doubles as the Mainstream Bias Pick of the Week (5-2 in 2024). It’s LSU as a dawg in a home night game. You really think I’m gonna pass up on that opportunity? I’ll probably sprinkle ML on this too. The only reason I feel nervous about this is because of what you’ll read below. But it’s gotta turn positive at some point, right?
SEC Insider Picks of the Weekend
Last week: 2-1 / In 2024: 17-23-1 / Overall: 50-48-3
*the following is verbatim*
Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (3-6-1 in 2024 / 14-10-1 overall): Alabama at LSU ML – Another “Welcome to the SEC” moment for Coach DeBoer. How much different would you feel about LSU if Marcel Reed doesn’t come in for A&M and spoil that game? I still love this Tigers team. Night game in Death Valley? Live Tiger on the field? Livvy Dunne and Paul Skenes? Someone play Neck.
Georgia -2.5 at Ole Miss
I think if you can get Georgia to win by a field goal against anyone, you have take it. Surely Beck snaps out of this funk eventually, right? I like Smart in a big game situation over Kiffin. Watch the lines of scrimmage on both sides here. Who do you like in a trench war?
South Carolina at Vanderbilt +6.5
I’m riding with the Dores and Pavia until the wheels fall off. You just simply cannot bet against Diego Pavia. Last week felt like SC’s Super Bowl. I don’t trust Beamer to string together a 3rd win on the road here.
Prem League Advisor Pick of the Weekend
Last week: 1-0 / In 2024: 5-3 / Since 2023: 7-3
*the following is verbatim*
Crystal Palace Double Chance + West Ham Double Chance -107
Boy the early games on Saturday are brutal. No signs this week, back to picking quality teams and expecting a result. Both these teams at home and they are the better side in both games. I expect a draw at worst from both. Let’s start the Saturday off right again.
Griffin Weinberg 