POSITIVITY.
pos·i·tiv·i·ty
noun
Definition: the practice of being, or tendency to be, positive or optimistic in attitude.
Origin: It was derived from the adjective “positive” and the suffix “-ity”. The word “positive” has multiple origins, including borrowings from French and Latin. The earliest known use of “positive” was in the Middle English period (1150—1500), and is found in the writing of Geoffrey Chaucer.
Down here on the blog, times aren’t that great recently. But we need to have some POSITIVITY.
I went 7-7 last week, but that’s kind of a cop-out considering I only deliver you fine folks my Saturday picks. I was 2-0 last Friday night, but the blog picks were 5-7. So that’s three straight losing weeks. I could let things fly off the rails at this point, but my overall record this year is still in the green, at 69-57-2. POSITIVITY.
The SEC Insider (probably a good thing this person is still anonymous) is in the midst of the driest of dry spells. Another losing week last week (1-2). Losing overall (15-22-1). I thought last week was when things would turn in the right direction for this individual, but it’s actually this week. The Insider is going 3-0. POSITIVITY.
The Prem League Advisor couldn’t be performing any worse. After starting off 3-0 this year, their picks have gone 1-3 since. Last week was supposed to get them back on track, a classic ML parlay with a sure-fire winner in Man City, but Brighton blew it by giving up two goals near the 90th minute to draw Wolves. It’s bad times across the pond for the Advisor, but he/she/who saw a sign this week. A sign that’ll bring a winner. POSITIVITY.
Where Griff was WRONG:
Ohio State -25.5 vs Nebraska: “Under Ryan Day, in B1G games right off a bye week, NOT including the 2020 COVID season, Buckeyes are 5-0 ATS.” LOSER. Make that 5-1 ATS in that situation. I could not have been more confident in Ohio State beating the shit out of Nebraska last week but, alas, Ryan Day is still the head coach in Columbus. He was born on third base. Can’t win the big game. Makes Buckeye fans nervous every week he steps on the sideline. You’ll be fascinated with how I’m leaning in the OSU-Penn State. POSITIVITY.
LSU +2.5 at Texas A&M: “I have zero reason to doubt LSU at this point of the season. They just find ways to win games.” LOL. LSU was up 17-7 at half before losing 38-23. This quote did not account for Texas A&M bringing in Marcel Reese to shred the LSU defense in the second half. The Tigahs looked clueless trying to defend a running QB like Reece and they got their asses kicked because of it.
Michigan State +4 at Michigan: “I’m not overthinking this one. Just take the Spartans.” I should’ve over-thought it. Michigan won 24-17 and looked competent, not good, but competent at quarterback with Davis Warren. This wasn’t a bad loss in terms of score, but it was bad in terms of logic.
Where Griff was RIGHT:
Indiana -6.5 vs Washington: The Toretto is now 7-2 on the season and many thanks belong the the Hoosiers for that. I was never worried about them. IU won 31-17 with a backup QB. I absolutely love my pick for the Toretto this week.
Recognizing the dumb, illogical picks that I have no business making. That would be Mississippi State +6.5 vs Arkansas (Arkansas won 58-25) and Florida State at Miami (FL) over 54.5 (Miami won 36-14). It would’ve been a winning week for the blog had I not taken these picks. I knew these picks were LOSERS. but I still took them. I see this as a good loss in terms of logic, but a bad loss in terms of the score. POSITIVITY.
Wisconsin (1Q +2.5) vs Penn State: “Wisconsin needs to start quick in this game because Penn State has been very good in the second half of games this year…I’ll bank on the Badgers looking like a top-5 team for at least the first quarter of this one.” This is the sharpest pick I’ve made this year. The Badgers won the first quarter, 3-0, then got outscored the rest of the way and lost 28-13. They probably could’ve won outright but Penn State knows how to run a good pick-six and turned the game with one of those to start the second half.
My card is much smaller than usual this week because I’m trying to be smarter with my picks. It’s gonna work. POSITIVITY.
Happy Saturday. Let’s get to the picks.
Last week: 7-7 / In 2024: 69-57-2 / Since 2022: 208-192-4
Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (7-2 in 2024, 16-8-1 overall): Navy -11 at Rice: This is a classic high school football scenario. “Little brother (Navy)” dominates the first part of their schedule, builds momentum, looks like they can challenge “big brother (Notre Dame)”, but “big brother” is just simply a better team and beats “little brother” with ease (ND 51-14). But, there’s still a lot to play for and “little brother” is still better than all the other scrubs on their schedule and rolls through the second half of the regular season. Navy are 6-1. Rice are 2-6. Yes, Rice fired their head coach this week, but the guy was there 6+ years and lost over half his games. I’m not worried about that. Rice already lost to Army 37-14 this season. I think Navy can loosen up with the Notre Dame game out of the way and play like a champion today.
Air Force at Army -21.5: It’s service academy week on the blog. Army (7-0) are a good team, yeah? Air Force (1-6) are a bad team, yeah? Air Force lost to the other service academy team, Navy, 34-7 about a month ago. Always take the under in these games, but don’t be afraid to bet the spread on the sure-fire better team.
Ohio State (ML -165) at Penn State: I just wanna be safe. The LOSERS. were dissecting this matchup and found too many correlations to the Georgia-Texas game. Like UGA, OSU has already played a top-5 team on the road, and lost. Like Texas, Penn State’s starting QB is (most likely) coming back from an injury to start the game. So many correlations. This is a toss-up but I’m banking on OSU to make less game-altering mistakes. I kinda like the under here as well. I also want OSU to keep winning so, if Indiana stays undefeated, that game in Columbus just means a little more.
Duke at Miami (FL) OVER 54.5: If Miami is playing a competent offense, the over will hit. Florida State is not a competent football team. Duke has failed to hit 21 points just once (14 at Georgia Tech). Miami’s defense is just so bad. Last week’s bet on the over against FSU was dumb and I knew it. I made this pick with ease.
Indiana at Michigan State TT u21.5: Once again, when it comes to IU football analysis, you should read the BSB. I’m tailing the pick there but it’s at a better price now on Draft Kings. Against FBS opponents, Michigan State has scored over 20 points just twice. Their offense is not great. I’m not on the spread cause I’m not sure what Kurtis Rourke’s balls are gonna look like………………….after having thumb surgery last week. If I see him spin it well on the Hoosiers’ opening drive, I may just live bet their spread.
Kansas State -13 at Houston: This is a dumb, illogical pick that I have no business making. I couldn’t help myself. Just betting against Houston. They beat a flailing Utah team by three last week after losing to a flailing Kansas team by 28 the week before. They’ve also been shutout twice this year. Kansas State should, in theory, win this game without any issue. You can fade this one with confidence.
Oregon at Michigan UNDER 45: Two really good defenses. Oregon is giving up 14 points or less to teams not named Ohio State or Boise State. Would you put Michigan’s offense in the same class as OSU or BSU? Didn’t think so. Maybe Oregon blows them out, but maybe Michigan, who has had this game circled on their calendar all year, show a little more fight and give Oregon a few haymakers. If Michigan does keep it close, it’ll be a low scoring game. No matter what, the Wolverines aren’t putting up points here.
Louisville at Clemson -10.5: No one has bet on more UofL games this season than me. We know the Cards have a bad defense. Clemson off a bye. Maybe the over is the play here but Clemson are beating their ACC counterparts by an average of 19 points in six games. I don’t see why that changes here.
SEC Insider Picks of the Weekend
Last week: 1-2 / In 2024: 15-22-1 / Overall: 48-47-3
*the following is verbatim*
Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (3-5-1 in 2024, 14-9-1 overall): Louisville at Clemson -10.5: All the Tigers have done since losing to Georgia week 1 is take care of business. Love Dabo and company coming off a bye with a night game in Death Valley. Louisville has been in 6 straight dog fights. They need a bye in the worst way. Give me the Tigers
Vanderbilt +7.5 at Auburn:
Anyone remember Diego Pavia leading New Mexico State into Jordan-Hare and defeating Auburn last year? De Ja Vu. I love this Vanderbilt team and do not think this Auburn team is any good.
Texas A&M at South Carolina +3:
I have a hard time believing in A&M this week. Big emotional comeback win last week. Let’s be honest, LSU should have won that game last week. We’ve got plenty of tape on on Marcel Reed and game-planned for him this week. I like this Gamecock front to get after them. Sellers limits TO’s, Cocks win outright. Tough environment here too. Someone play Sandstorm
Prem League Advisor Pick of the Weekend
Last week: 0-1 / In 2024: 4-3 / Since 2023: 6-3
Arsenal at Newcastle (Double Chance -130):
*the following is verbatim*
There’s so much I want to say this week but the people only care about results, not words. Major sign came to me Friday morning indicating Newcastle. A close companion of mine just started a book in which the main character is in the Premier League, the team he plays for… Blackcastle. I have a personal play on Newcastle ML +280. Let’s start the day off right this week.
Griffin Weinberg 