We’ve entered the “fake I.D.” weekend of college football.
It’s an incredible slate today and I could not be happier to to be alive for it. But some teams are gonna wish this day never happened. Is Texas really the #1 team in the country or have they just been stuffing little kids in lockers? Is Georgia a legit title contender or are they just another cog in the SEC machine? The loser of Bama/Tennessee will be known as the “Steven Glansberg” of college football.
Can Indiana handle all the noise or will it be another letdown in a big spot? There’s a lot to love about today and we’ll get to it, but let’s go back real quick.
I went 8-9 last week, bringing us to 56-42-1 on the year, but you all did better than me. I whiffed on a Friday night game and I ended up taking tOSU -3.5 at Oregon. You really can’t trust the Buckeyes in these big games, can you? So, while I ended up with a losing record, the rest of you were bestowed another winning day at 8-7. Winning’s winning. But it could’ve been much better. Wisconsin/Rutgers nearly hit the under until the Badgers figured out how score in the second half (42-7, 35 total points scored in 2H), Cal scored the only points of the second half at Pitt (6) and covered the 3.5 when we had Pitt (17-15 Pitt) and Illinois (-23.5) got outscored 40-19 in the second half against Purdue but still won 50-49 in OT.
But a loss is a loss is a loss. Let’s keep knocking at that door.
Where Griff was WRONG:
I need to stop taking games solely based off a good trend I see. Tennessee failed to cover the first half spread for the second straight week and they looked awful in the process. I think we need to cool the talk on Nico. He’s still young and he’ll be the man at some point but it doesn’t look like it’s happening this year. And the “bet the first half spread on service academy dawgs vs non-service academy teams” strategy had no chance. Air Force is bad and looked that way against New Mexico. I need to get back to the basics and let the stats justify my picks.
I should not have bet Kentucky to beat Vandy by two (2) touchdowns. That was just a bad bet and I should have had faith in Pavia. Vandy won 20-13. We did hit the under, but that was another case of letting the trends make the pick.
Where Griff was RIGHT:
The Toretto is now 5-1 on the season after BYJew took care of business against Arizona. The Cougs are now 7-0 after grinding one out against Oklahoma State last night and are kind of like the Indiana of the Big 12. Only difference is BYU have a ranked win against Kansas State. I’ll dip my toes back into that well.
My BATMBPOTW (Bet Against The Mainstream Bias Pick Of The Week) was USC +5 and they barely got it, but they did got it. The Trojans’ condom has broken and it looks like they’ve pulled out of the season. Up next is a road trip to Maryland. That’s called foreshadowing.
The SEC Insider (your guess is as good as mine) actually ended up on the positive side with a 3-2 record. Their change from Oklahoma ATS to South Carolina ATS was a greater maneuver since the invention of the Heimlich. That gives me hope for this weekend with how they are seeing the board. You should still tail at your own discretion, but that’s the kinda move that gets you back on track. One boop for the Insider.
The Prem League Advisor is back with another pick after the lads had a bye week. I always recommend following along, as this individual is 4-1 this season on their picks. No moneyline parlay today. Just a straight winner.
Like last week, here’s the link to the Action Network page that has a bunch of good stats/trends that I use.
I did bet on Purdue last night (+28.5 vs Oregon), and they lost 35-0, so I’m 0-1 to start the week. That’s typical these days. Y’all should be glad I don’t let you take my Friday picks. They have been awful.
Alright. Happy Saturday. Let’s get to the picks.
CFB (8-9 last week / 56-42-1 in 2024 / 195-177-3 since 2022):
Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (6-1 in 2024, 15-7-1 overall): UCF at Iowa State -13.5: Since getting blown out at home to Colorado, UCF has lost at the lowly Florida Gators and at home to Cincinnati, a game I’m sure that many UCF students looked at before the season and said to their buddies,”We win that game and I could see us being 5-1, maybe 6-0 if everything goes right.” It hasn’t. This team only has the Gasparilla Bowl to play for with a 3-3 record. Iowa State are 6-0 and have covered five straight, including two as road favorites. They’re just a better team.
Virginia +21 at Clemson: I’ve been high on Clemson for a couple weeks now, but some advanced stats (a.k.a bias) helped me take Virginia. Also, yeah, Clemson has been beating the hell outta teams, but who have they played? All teams with losing records besides Georgia, their only loss: Wake Forest (2-4), FSU (poop emoji, didn’t cover), Stanford (2-4), NC State (3-4), App State (2-4). Virginia is at least 4-2. Virginia coach Tony Elliot worked under Dabo from 2011-2021 and this is their first time coaching against each other. In Clemson’s last 10 games as a 20+ point home favorite, their only 3-7 ATS. But they have covered two of their last three.
Wake Forest at UCONN ML -125: I saw a tweet that Dan Hurley was lobbying for fans to get out to the game and it’s Homecoming for UConn (4-2). I also just stated that Wake is not good so I’m standing on business. That’s about it.
Wisconsin at Northwestern (over 41.5): Wisconsin has figured out how to putt and Northwestern’s offense isn’t too shabby, either. Wisconsin has at least 21 in every game besides the Bama game (10) and 94 points in their last two. NW has scored at least 20 points in every game besides the one they played at Washington (5). Both teams are 4-1 to the over over their last five games.
Miami (FL) at Louisville (over 59.5): I just needed a one-week break from betting on a Louisville game. I’d love to take them +5 here but I’m more confident in the over. The U hasn’t scored less than 38 points in each game. I’ve watched enough UofL to know their defense is not great but they can also put up points. Something chaotic is going to happen in this game. I don’t see how this doesn’t hit.
Arizona State at Cincinnati -4.5: Skattebo. Scat-uh-boo. Great name. Gotta have a bad game. That’s how UC covers. They gotta stop RB Cam Skattebo. He’s electric. More broken tackles on the year than Ashton Jeanty and this sick video of one of his touchdowns. He’ll be the focal point of their offense because ASU’s starting quarterback is out so UC has to take away the run. And they’re crossing timezones. Homecoming for UC. Yeah, the Devils were picked last in the Big 12 and now they’re 5-1. They beat Utah without healthy Cam Rising, Kansas (major letdown) by four, and every win is by eight or less points. I’ll take the Cats.
UCLA at Rutgers (under 41): UCLA hasn’t scored 20 points in a game this season. Their offensive explosion isn’t coming in a cross-country trip to Piscataway. Rutgers has seven each of the last two games. Rutgers -5 may be the more sexy bet, but you know what’s more sexy? Money. And the money lies (lay?) on the under.
Nebraska at Indiana (1H -3.5): As much as I wanna take the game spread (-6.5), I’m more confident in the first half. This game will come down to the last five minutes. Nebraska is the best team IU will have seen so far. I think the Hoosiers win, but it’ll be close. The Huskers have played one road game this year: at Pur-don’t. They scored zero points in the first half. I think Raiola(?) still needs some seasoning. Sell-out crowd and Big Noon Kickoff and the Barstool CFB Show will all be there. This game has all the feelings of a big one. One thing that worries me is all the interviews Coach Cig has been doing. It’s been A LOT of them. I know the Pat McAfee interview was moved from last week to this week, and he’s earned the attention, but still.
Auburn at Mizzou -4: I’m tailing the Insider’s MWP. Also, Hugh Freeze teams don’t beat ranked opponents (0-9 since 2020) and his Auburn teams are 1-6 SU as dawgs.
Alabama -3 at Tennessee: I’m betting on who I think is the better QB in this game. Nico has been sus in SEC games. Milroe is having a much better year. This is the epitome of a fake I.D. game. Also, while it’s a big game, this doesn’t feel like the game from two years ago, when Tennessee won 52-49 on a walkoff FG at home. That was one of the greatest games ever. This game will feel like both teams are walking on eggshells. Milroe’s feet are lighter than Nico’s.
Houston +5.5 at Kansas: Just two bad teams and one of them is getting too many points I think. Both coming off a bye. Houston (2-4) beat TCU before the break, 30-19, and Kansas (1-5) has lost five straight, including one to TCU. I read somewhere that Kansas might not have one its team captains, a starting LB. Feel free to fade this one.
NC State at California -9.5: The Wolfpack have not covered a single game this year and they’ve lost two straight home games. Now they’re making a cross-country flight (see a trend) against a scrappy Cal team. I don’t think NC State has any motivation to play this game. Cal at least got GameDay to come out to them.
USC at Maryland +7: Mainstream Bias Pick of the Week (4-2 in 2024)
Ball State at Vanderbilt -26.5: I love betting against bad teams and this is just that. Ball State are 2-4. Last week they beat Kent State (0-6), 37-35, but were favored by three. That was Kent State’s first time covering the spread this year. Vandy may not be Texas A&M from the Manziel years, but they’re pretty good. Diego Pavia has been favored by 20+ points in four career starts, one at Vandy, and he’s 4-0 ATS in those games.
Georgia +5 at Texas: I’m in agreement with the Insider regarding this pick. Texas hasn’t been tested this year. This feels like the right time to back Kirby. I’m not sure who wins this game, but you know it won’t be a blowout. Also, Georgia kinda needs to win this game so they’ll play like it. I can’t imagine a two-loss Georgia team making it to the SEC championship with losses to Bama and Texas. If the Dawgs lose, I don’t think they control their own path to the playoffs. The stats: against top-five teams, Kirby is 11-4 ATS while Sark is 2-8 SU and 4-6 ATS, 0-2 SU/ATS as a favorite. It’s the Dawgs.
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SEC Insider picks of the weekend (3-2 last week / 12-18 in 2024, 45-43-2 overall):
*the following is verbatim*
Let me clear my throat….
I’ve backed the buckeyes twice and been burned twice. Never again. I bought into the hype and the defense. News flash, don’t ever buy into Ryan Day and Jim Knowles’ “Silver Bullets”. I said preseason when Ransom, Sawyer, JTT, Burke etc all decided to come back to “win a championship” that it was really because they didn’t have anywhere else to go. They’re all good college players who will not make it out of their rookie contracts/training camp in the NFL. These are the same guys who have never beaten Michigan or anything of note for that matter. Of course they came back to school. Trust your gut Insider!
Anyways, this has not been the start we wanted, but it’s all about how you respond. The 2nd half of the season begins this week. We’re trusting our gut from here on out….
“It’s time to turn the page”
Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (3-4 in 2024, 14-8 overall): Missouri -4 vs Auburn – Line opened at 7. I still think Missouri has its best football ahead of them. This team still has playoff hopes even tho it seems people are writing them off. Drink dials up an offensive masterclass.
Louisville +5 vs Miami (FL) – Big game Brohm. Sleepy noon kick and a sellout in the Ville. Upset alert IMO.
UK -2 at Florida – What a roller coaster this team has been. Defense travels here. Not sold on Lagway yet. UK plays better on the road it seems.
Georgia +4.5 at Texas – If you can get Georgia with points against anyone I think you take it. Texas hasn’t had a test like this yet. Ewers and the WRs could go nuclear on this Georgia secondary. That’s the battle to watch. I do not think UGA has played their best game yet. If Georgia can play 4 quarters of football they may win outright.
LSU -2 at Arkansas – People may think this is a letdown spot after an emotional game last week. That kind of thinking has gotten me killed this year. LSU has better football players. If Taylen Green is truly a go I’m not sure how effective he can be.
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Prem League Advisor pick of the weekend (4-1 in 2024, 6-1 overall):
Newcastle ML -105
*the following is verbatim*
Let’s keep it simple fellas. I’ve been hearing the noise. “I only give heavy ML favorite parlays” “I could make money betting heavy favorites” Newcastle is a tough place to play. Up north, this team has left more to be desired to start the season. I think Newcastle gets their campaign going with a quality win against a solid side. Let’s ride
Griffin Weinberg 