ATONEMENT.
a·tone·ment
noun
Definition(s): reparation for a wrong or injury; (in religious contexts) reparation or expiation for sin.
Origin: early 16th century (denoting unity or reconciliation, especially between God and man); from at one + the suffix -ment, influenced by medieval Latin adunamentum ‘unity’, and earlier onement from an obsolete verb one ‘to unite’.
Today is Yom Kippur, also known the Day of Atonement, the second of the High Holy days, but THE holiest day of the year in Judaism (Rosh Hashanah, the Jewish New Year, was last week).
Last (Friday) night, I attended services with my mom. I took time to reflect on my sins from the past year. I’d like to use this safe space to ask for forgiveness for a few things.
FORGIVE ME, for not fasting during this holiday, as-is custom during Yom Kippur, and instead, last night after services, eating the leftover pork fried rice and chicken w/broccoli from Johnny Chan 2 that my mother and I indulged in prior to services.
FORGIVE ME, for continuing to follow in the footsteps of the (anonymous) SEC Insider. They are a putrid 9-16 ATS this season. Last week, they went 2-4, losing the Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (Tennessee -13.5) and Alabama (-22.5) straight-up. I already have regrets on backing their MWP today. But my loyalty for this individual is too strong. I just can’t help myself. Our stars do align on one other game. You should not follow the Insider until things turn around. Perhaps repenting their sins is in their near future.
FORGIVE ME, for continuing to believe in Louisville football as a top-15 team. The signs showed us that fourth quarter luck played a big role in UofL starting out 3-0-1 ATS prior to last week. I backed them again, -6.5 vs SMU at home, and they trailed the whole game, losing 34-27. I shall follow the Cardinals no more on the gridiron. My toes became too crinkly.
FORGIVE ME, for spending my hard(ly) earned dollars on Bengals tickets and the Brown family. Without Joe Burrow, we wouldn’t have a pot to piss in. I’ve attended two Who Dey games this year, both ending in heart-breaking fashion, so I shall do that no more (unless we’re either playing for a playoff spot or are in the playoffs, somehow).
While not perfect (I am covering at a 59% clip, though), and there is much more to atone for, I feel comfortable moving into this New Year with a clear head. And I think it’s important to reflect on some of the positives from year’s last:
I am a proud Indiana Hoosier football fan, the first team in the realm to qualify for a bowl game, and a follower of the “Light the Cig” movement. In this blog, we are 4-0 ATS betting on the Hoosiers. Troy Aikman is heaping praise on Coach Cig. Together, we can all be undaunted.
I am a proud follower of the Prem League Advisor. They are 4-1 this year, 6-1 overall in this blog. No Prem this week, but I’m glad to have their services in this blog.
I am proud of my efforts to improve my eating habits and hit the gym almost every day before work. I shall carry that work ethic into this New Year.
I am grateful for YOU, the readers of this blog. Together, we can grow stronger and continue to dish out winners to those who seek them on a weekly basis. If there is anything you seek, answers or repentance or recommendations for a good delicatessen (Marx Bagels), I am here for you.
Now, before we get to the picks, I’d like to say that most of the stats I get are from the Action Network. Not all of them, but most of them. They do a great job of painting a picture. But every picture has its own interpretations.
My interpretations are hitting at a 59% clip, so far.
Alright. Happy Saturday. Let’s get to the picks.
CFB (9-7 last week / 48-33-1 in 2024 / 187-168-3 since 2022):
Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (5-1 in 2024, 14-7-1 overall): Arizona at BYU -3: Last (Friday) night, I also asked for forgiveness for not betting on BYU football yet this season, despite the mormon Cougars having a jewish QB, Jake Retzlaff, and being 5-0 ATS/SU this season. Time to back the tribe. Gut Yontif.
Friday: Northwestern at Maryland (under 45.5) – LOST
Clemson -20 at Wake Forest: Clemson is a good team. The Georgia game was an outlier. Since week one, Clemson has covered their next four games in MY book (last week I locked in at -14.5 before the line moved to Clemson -16.5 at closing. They beat Florida State 29-13. I can prove it, if you’d like, because of INTEGRITY.). An odd stat: in the game after playing Florida State, Clemson are 12-3 ATS under Dabo, winning by 25 ppg.
Washington at Iowa -2.5: Iowa is good. They got their shit rocked by tOSU last week but that was expected. Washington is mid. They traveled to Rutgers a couple weeks ago, their first B1G road game, and lost. They came back home and beat another mid team in Michigan. Redemption from the natty last year. Now they cross two timezones for a game in middle Earth. You think anyone on the Huskies has ever eaten a Casey’s pizza? This is another “welcome to the B1G” moment for Washington. After a loss, Kirk Ferentz is 15-5-1 ATS at home as a favorite or underdog of less than a touchdown.
Wisconsin at Rutgers (under 43.5): This just has the feelings of a classic B1G game. Wisconsin did score 52 last week but Purdue is just a bad team that already fired its offensive coordinator a few weeks ago, the great Graham Harrell. The Badgers have scored 21 and 10 points against their other two Power Five (Four) opponents, USC and Alabama, respectively. Against three Power opponents, Rutgers’ scoring has gone from 26 points to 21 points to seven points.
California at Pittsburgh -3.5: I am tailing the SEC Insider here because I believe in Pitt. They are 5-0 ATS/SU. I’ve seen lots of the mainstream bias heaping praise on their quarterback. Just gonna ride with it.
Texas -15.5 vs Oklahoma: Mainstream Bias pick of the week (3-2 in 2024)
Purdue at Illinois -23: As stated above, Purdue is not a good football team. They cannot score. Fellas keep de-committing from Purdue. Illinois is 4-1. I’m just betting against Purdue. Plain and simple.
Penn State at USC +5: I would not advise you to take this pick. I’m betting on Penn State having their annual meltdown a little earlier than the tOSU game in a few weeks. The Nittany Lions will have two losses this season. They can still win this game, but there has been so much negative attention on USC over the last couple weeks that it makes me feel good about this bet. This is basically my BATMBPOTW (Bet Against The Mainstream Bias Pick Of The Week).
Cincinnati +3.5 at UCF: This is a tail from a trusted UC Insider. I also think UCF are in shambles after losing at home, as 13 point favorites, to Colorado a couple weeks ago then losing at Florida, 24-13, as one-point road favorites last week. Bearcats are coming off a bye. Since last season, under Scott Satterfield, UC are 2-1 SU with a rest advantage, if that helps you at all.
Florida at Tennessee (1H -7.5): I’ve given you the stats in my previous blogs. Josh Heupel’s teams have covered the first half spread 67% of the time in his 6+ year coaching career. A new one: when his teams are laying -7 or more in the first half, they are 29-9-2 ATS in the first half. Tennessee didn’t cover -7.5 last week at Arkansas. There’s no way they don’t hit the number two weeks in a row, is there?
Air Force (1H +3.5) at New Mexico: In the past decade, Army, Navy and Air Force are 92-59 ATS as underdogs in the first half spread when facing non-service academy teams. Air Force has already covered in this spot against Baylor a few weeks ago. We’ve made this bet a few other times this year as well.
Ohio State at Oregon (1H under 26.5): Sources close the Buckeyes, and Joel Klatt, believe that tOSU will want to establish the run early on in this game. No stats. I just like the logic. I also REALLY wanna take Oregon +3 but I’m just not sure yet. I will probably take a side in this game but it’ll be a late add.
Ole Miss at LSU +3.5: You should actually not take this pick. I regret it. Against my best judgement, I tailed the SEC Insider again and his/her/their Mouth Watering Pick of the Week. They got bad info. Ole Miss will most likely have their top WR back. I should not have taken this this early in the week. Please advise.
Vanderbilt at Kentucky -13.5 AND under 44.5: Vanderbilt are not Texas A&M from the Manziel years. I love the Pavia story (great one in The Athletic this week), but I sense a letdown here. Since 2021, Vanderbilt are just 2-9 ATS after a win. In that same time, Kentucky are 15-9-1 ATS in the game following a win. Since 2021, in SEC games, Vanderbilt hit the under at a 54% clip while Kentucky games hit the under in conference games at a 63% clip. I feel better about the under than the spread.
SEC Insider picks of the weekend (2-4 last week / 9-16 in 2024, 42-41-2 overall):
*the following is verbatim*
Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (2-4 in 2024, 13-8 overall): LSU +3.5 vs Ole Miss – I think LSU may win outright. Ole Miss is massively overrated imo. No Trae Harris at WR for Ole Miss (*Editor’s note: Harris is probable to play, as of Friday night). Tiger Stadium at night getting 3.5? Sign me up.
Florida +15 at Tennessee –
Huge rivalry game here and know everyone is going to give Tennessee their best shot. I see this one being close. Can you believe Nico ran out of bounds on 4th down last week? Fraud alert
*Editor’s note: The following is a text message exchange between myself (Griff) and the SEC Insider (could be anyone).
SEC Insider: Please get rid of the Oklahoma game. New injury info just came to light. Replace it with South Carolina +21
Griff: What’s the mainstream bias saying? What did I just tell you about?
SEC Insider: Oklahoma is cooked at WR. I thought their top guy was gonna play
Griff: Whats your gut telling you to do? Dig deep
SEC Insider: Throw that game in the trash
Griff: Ok
South Carolina +21 vs Alabama
Oklahoma +14.5 vs Texas –
See above, major rivalry where anything can happen. Expecting a dawg fight. 2 huge weeks in a row for Texas. Think Texas could go a little vanilla and try to burn clock if they are up. Could be a back door situation if that happens.
Pitt -3.5 vs Cal –
Cal getting over an emotional loss to Miami and having to travel across country? No chance
tOSU -3 at Oregon –
Have you ever seen a better collection of players on a roster in college football? I think OSU matches up well. Can kill you on the ground or in the air. I’m out on Gabriel. I’m not reading too much into the time zone stats for this situation.
Prem League Advisor pick of the weekend (4-1 in 2024, 6-1 overall):
Prem League is on a bye week.
*Editor’s note: Pochettino is getting the fellas ready for action tonight against Panama. Folks are saying it’s a more anticipated debut than Arch Manning in the burnt orange. 9pm EST. TNT. I’ll take USMNT money line and Pulisic to score a goal at whatever his odds are.
Griffin Weinberg 