We’re still winning.
We tip-toed that line last week (7-6-1), but winning is winning. However, some of the games we lost we’re pretty bad losses, so I need to clean that up and will address it below. But last week was significant for the blog for a few reasons.
The SEC Insider got back on track with a winning week, going 3-2. That’s a great sign because I think this individual got back to (mostly) picking games on their own without the help from other anonymous sources.
Because of this development, I’ve decided to tail (almost) all of the Insider’s picks this week and stray from mockery and verbal humiliation in this blog, a-la Will Ferrell dissing his dog. Good vibes from here on out.
On the other hand, the Prem League Advisor finally felt the hand of defeat, suffering their first loss in six picks. A -121 parlay couldn’t get the job done so the Advisor is going back to the drawing board, making another parlay, but this time including a team that is pretty much guaranteed to win. This parlay can’t lose two weeks in a row, can it? No chance. I’m all over it, and you should be too. The Advisor has promised to be better and I believe they will be. When promises are made in this blog, they are delivered.
Before we look back at last week, last night I went 1-1, taking the trendy Syracuse to cover against UNLV (they won in overtime) and Oregon -23 vs Michigan State. Fuck Jonathan Smith (Mich St coach) for kicking a field goal down 24 with less than a minute left. He came from Oregon State so there has to be some bad blood there and he no doubt knew what the spread was and wanted to piss off everyone who took Oregon to cover. Mission accomplished. That’s gonna be bad luck for MSU the rest of the year. I’m putting a hex on the Spartans. Christ almighty.
Alright.
Where Griff was WRONG:
Oklahoma State (+5.5) at Kansas Sate: They lost 42-20 and never had a chance. Mike Gundy did in fact let his team look bad two weeks in a row. Just an awful pick from me.
South Alabama (+20.5) at LSU: I took this solely because the SEC Insider had the other side and I wanted to fade this person. LSU won 42-10. I was being too much of a hater and I cannot do that anymore. In my Eugenio Suarez voice: “Good vize only boys!”
Where Griff was RIGHT:
Indiana (-7) vs Maryland: Hoosiers won 42-28. I was never worried about this. It was the Toretto and it delivered. IU might be a football school. You’ll be shocked to see what the Toretto is this week.
Clemson (-22.5) vs Stanford: I tailed the SEC Insider on this pick last week, despite hating on everything else they liked, and it paid off. Clemson rolled 40-14. Outside of the opening loss to Georgia, they have looked like the Clemson of old. Pretty sure they are plus money to make the CFP as well.
Ohio State (-23.5) vs Michigan State: Fuck Jonathan Smith. I gave you all the numbers that showed why tOSU was going to cover this number and they did, 38-7. They did not hit the over though (over 47.5). I got more numbers for the Buckeyes this week.
Alright. Happy Saturday. Let’s get to the picks.
CFB (7-6-1 last week / 40-26-1 in 2024 / 179-161-3 since 2022):
Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (4-1 in 2024, 13-7-1 overall): Indiana (TT o27.5) at Northwestern: Taking this specific pick from my friend’s at Bite Sized Bison. I don’t hate the spread either (IU -13.5), but I feel better that Indiana can score four touchdowns. They’ve hit that number each game this season.
Friday: Syracuse +6.5 at UNLV (Covered)
Friday: Michigan State at Oregon -23 (Fuck you, Jonathan Smith)
Army -13 at Tulsa: A lot goes into this pick, but two things are key: former IU coach Kevin Wilson leads Tulsa, so I’m fading them because right now, IU is ridding itself of the past and forging into the future. I’m doing the same. Also, Tulsa are not very good (2-3 overall and ATS). Army are 4-0, have covered all four games and may have the best offense in football. They have a +103 point differential. I love this.
Louisville -6.5 vs SMU: Dipping my toes back into the well until they become too crinkly. UofL gave us a miracle push last week with a late score to lose by seven. Really, Louisville has had three straight games where they needed something miraculous to happen in the fourth quarter to either cover or push. But it keeps happening. As for SMU, they killed Florida State last week (who gives a shit), crushed TCU 66-42 a couple weeks ago (TCU just lost to a now 2-3 Houston team last night) but did lose by three to a good BYU team before that. I’ve been on Louisville all year. I’ll keep falling into that well like a young Bruce Wayne (Batman Begins).
Boston College +1.5 at Virginia: This is strictly because Thomas Castellanos is back for BC and I can get them at plus money. I don’t know shit about Virginia football. Looks like they lost by 14 to Maryland, who Indiana beat pretty easily last week. If there is any pick to fade this week, it’s this one.
Iowa at Ohio State -18: I want to believe that tOSU is the best team in the country. There is no “demure” with this team. Always feels like they should be the top dawg even though Ryan Day was born on third base. So I’m gonna keep betting them like it. Since Day took over in 2019, OSU are 13-5-1 ATS at home in B1G games, favored in each one. In such games with lines between 10 and 20 points, they are 6-2 ATS. They’ve covered four (4) straight games, last on 10/7/23 vs Maryland (-17, W 37-17). I just want to believe.
Ole Miss -8.5 at South Carolina: Tailing the SEC Insider.
Alabama -22.5 at Vanderbilt: Tailing the SEC Insider.
Utah State at Boise State -27: I really just wanna bet on a Boise State game and this feels like the right time to do so. Ashton Jeanty is playing like a prime Cody Paul and Utah State gives up too many points (36 ppg). Boise averages 48 ppg. Set it and forget it.
Clemson -14.5 at Florida State: I asked a source about Florida State possibly playing better with out DJ You-Ain’t-Got-No-Alibi. Their response: “You watch that Glenn kid play the Orange bowl last year? He stinks too.”
Tennessee -13.5 AND 1H -7.5 at Arkansas: The spread is courtesy of the SEC Insider’s MWP. In six years as a head coach at UCF and Tennessee, Josh Heupel’s teams are 44-17-2 ATS in the first half – the most profitable ATS of 305 head coaches. That includes a record of 23-7-1 1H ATS away from home. Tennessee covered the 1H spread in week one vs Chattanooga (-24.5, leading 45-0), week two vs NC State (-4.5, leading 20-3), week 3 vs Kent State (-31.5, leading 65-0) and week 4 vs Oklahoma (-3.5, leading 19-3). Just follow the numbers.
Miami (FL) at California +10: Mainstream Bias pick of the week (2-2 in 2024)
Texas Tech +6.5 at Arizona: Texas Tech is playing much better recently with three straight wins, but this is more about Arizona. The Wildcats have been over-hyped all season, mainly because their QB and T-MAC (at WR) have been playing together since peewee. They were a trendy pick to upset Kansas State a couple weeks ago and got blown out and they beat Utah last week without Cam Rising. It’s easy to look at this game and think Arizona -6.5 is an easy play, but I just think Texas Tech is coming into form and will keep it close.
SEC Insider picks of the weekend (3-2 last week / 7-12 in 2024, 40-37-2 overall):
*the following is verbatim*
Let’s be honest – Nobody wants to hear my commentary after the poor start to the season. They just want results. Winning week last week (3-2), I feel the tide turning.
Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (2-3 in 2024, 13-7 overall): Tennessee -13.5 at Arkansas
Rutgers at Nebraska (over 40.5)
Louisville -6.5 vs SMU
Clemson -14.5 at Florida State
Bama -22.5 at Vanderbilt
Ole Miss -8.5 at South Carolina
Prem League Advisor pick of the weekend (3-1 in 2024, 5-1 overall):
*the following is verbatim*
Nothing else needs to be said. God bless.
Arsenal ML + West Ham ML +118
Griffin Weinberg 