Fellas, lady fellas, we’re 33-20 on the season after going 9-3 last week.
I may have to introduce a paywall with how well this season has gone for us.
I’m joking. I’d never. I don’t even know how to set that up.
Last week was fantastic…for some of us. The Prem League Adviser continues to wow us all with a perfect 5-0 record overall, 3-0 in 2024. Leicester came back late and saved the parlay last Saturday and we got another parlay to kick off this Saturday.
We do need to have another talk about the SEC Insider. After a 1-4 week, this (anonymous) person is just 4-11 in 2024 and on the brink of falling under .500 overall. The Insider is already 0-1 this week after taking The U to cover -17.5 last night. Just another reason why I like posting this blog Saturday morning instead of Thursday or Friday. I’m always thinking about the best interests of my readers. Maybe the SEC Insider should stick to picking SEC games? Until we see positive results from him/her/who knows, I’d take their picks with a grain of salt.
I’m 1-1 this week. Last night I took Miami (FL) 1H TT over 19.5, which lost, but I live bet The U to win after Virginia Tech decided to run a fake field goal instead of making it a 13 point game. That was the most idiotic thing I’ve seen since Mario Cristobal ran a play instead of kneeing it last season and Miami went on to lose. I’d like to think that Cristobal was thinking the same thing when he saw VT do that and he knew his team was gonna win last night. And I think it’s pretty clear that the hail mary was incomplete. The guy(s) didn’t complete the process of the catch. Nobody on VT ever has full control of the ball. The call to reverse it to incomplete looks bad because the refs called it a touchdown on the field initially.
Let’s go back to last week.
Where Griff was WRONG:
Mississippi State (+6.5) never had a chance. I faded the Insider on everything but they got the other side of this one right. Florida won 45-28 and Miss St. might be the worst team in the SEC.
I wrote that I hated OSU -40 after I did the research, and I was right about that, but I still made the pick for them to cover. I even made the case to take the over 52.5 instead and I still didn’t do that. OSU beat Marshall 49-14. The Buckeyes never cover those huge spreads and they don’t give a shit about non-conference opponents. I will probably be taking them this week against Michigan State.
Notre Dame could’ve gone for the cover at the end of their 28-3 win over Miami (OH) but they didn’t. 27.5 points was too much. Their offense is not good. They’re playing Louisville this week, whom I’ve been riding all year, and I will continue to do so.
Where Griff was RIGHT:
Indiana University is a football school. The Hoosiers are 4-0 and beating the shit out of everything in their way right now. They covered 28 points vs Charlotte in a 52-14 win and now they open B1G play at home. The train keeps on rolling.
Taking Utah to beat Oklahoma State made me nervous because it’s the first time I’ve faded the Insider’s mouth watering pick, but it was the correct thing to do. OK St. made a late comeback that fell short in a game that Utah controlled throughout, even without Cam Rising. I will most likely continue my trend of fading the Insider, for the most part, until further notice.
Following two historical trends has been working pre-tay good. Tennessee covered the first half spread for the fourth time this season when they led Oklahoma 19-3 at half last week. Service academy teams keep covering their first half spread when they are underdogs. Navy (+6 1H) was up 28-17 over Memphis after the first 30 minutes. I’m gonna dip my toes back into those wells again.
Alright. Happy Saturday. Let’s get to the picks.
CFB (9-3 last week / 33-20 in 2024 / 172-155-2 since 2022):
Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (3-1 in 2024, 12-7-1 overall): Indiana -7 vs Maryland: Two weeks in a row I’m tailing the Hoosiers to make a big splash. Last week I wrote, “I don’t think Coach Cig is worried about Maryland” before what was a potential trap game vs Charlotte. I was right. And it still rings true today. Maryland’s offense is one-dimensional with receiver Tai Felton taking in 54 targets already. The Terps can throw the ball, but so can Indiana. Like Coach Cig, I’m not worried about Maryland.
Oklahoma State +5.5 at Kansas State: I think the public is all over Kansas State so I’m fading gen pop. OK St looked awful against Utah last week and I don’t see Mike Gundy letting his team play that bad two weeks in a row. Kansas State may win the game, but I think the Pokes will look like the better team.
Arkansas +5.5 at Texas A&M (*late add): Arkansas’ offense looks like one of the best in the country. Taylen Green is awesome. This is just a pick-it-and-rip-it pick.
Louisville +7 at Notre Dame: I’ve been riding UofL all season and I will continue to do so. Notre Dame does not have a great offense. Louisville does. The total is 45.5. Notre Dame is not blowing out the Cardinals. This game will be close. If I did not go with IU as the Toretto this week, this game would be my pick.
North Carolina +1.5 at Duke: Mainstream Bias pick of the week (1-2 in 2024)
Clemson -22.5 vs Stanford: I am following the SEC Insider here. They make some convincing points.
Ohio State -23.5 at Michigan State AND over 47.5: Since Ryan Day took over in 2019, OSU is 4-1 ATS as 20 to 29.5 point favorites on the road. All five instances are B1G games. They did not cover their most recent game, 26.5 points at Maryland, in 2022. The over is also 5-0 in those games with the lowest point total being 49.5 points at Northwestern in 2019.
Penn State -18 vs Illinois: There is mainstream bias involved with this pick, but it’s also like Oregon-Oregon State a couple weeks ago. Illinois has looked too good to be 18 point dawgs, so I’m just taking Penn State. It’s also a 7:30 EST kickoff so I like the Nittany Lions at home in the night game.
South Alabama +20.5 at LSU (*late add)
Florida State (TT u20) at SMU (*late add)
*I will probably add to the card.
SEC Insider picks of the weekend (1-4 last week / 4-11 in 2024, 37-36-2 overall):
*the following is verbatim*
Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (1-3 in 2024, 12-7 overall): LSU -20.5 vs South Alabama: Beautiful weather in Baton Rouge. LSU has better football players. Better coaches. They should beat a mid major by 3 scores, right?
Miami U -17 vs Virginia Tech (*Editor’s note: you’re welcome)
Imo The U is approaching “take them at whatever the line is” territory. Insiders get this one on Friday to get the party started.
Ok St v Kansas St U 57.5
I don’t think this game gets to the 50s. Ollie Gordon and Avery Johnson could be the biggest 2 frauds in the country. But SEC Insider, Avery Johnson is only 19! Cut him some slack! – Look how much Jayson Tatum has accomplished as a 19 year old. Yep teams who will look to run the ball. Think Gundy will have this team prepared after a loss last week.
Clemson -22 vs Stanford
Name your price situation. Think everyone overreacted to Clemsons week 1 loss. Clemsons offense rolling. Stanford has to fly back across the country after being in NY last week. Total let down spot after that upset over Cuse. Clemson is more physical and Stanford will not have ever seen a night game environment like this.
Cincinnati +3.5 at Texas Tech
My trusted insider can’t be wrong AGAIN can he? This UC team should be undefeated and feels a bit slept on. Hard fought W for Texas Tech last week, think they throw up a stinker.
Prem League Advisor pick of the weekend (3-0 in 2024, 5-0 overall):
Nottingham Forest Double Chance + Brentford Double Chance / Parlay -121
*the following is verbatim*
The people may say, “-121” (sic) cmon prem advisor anyone can hit those, to that I respond, “A win is a win.”
I’m sticking with the Saturday morning 10 AM EST matches as they have been good to us. Forest is on fire this year, playing some great ball. Brentford at home, needing a result against a struggling West Ham squad. I see both of these teams picking up at least a point Saturday.
Griffin Weinberg 