CFB Week 4, 2024

Fellas, lady fellas, we’re doing pretty good. Pre-tay, pre-tay, pretty good.

We’re 24-16 to start this college football season (full disclosure: I took San Jose St. +12.5 last night. I may need to start releasing this prior to Friday night) and went 8-6 last week. I added a few live bets last week (Bama -13.5, LSU +5.5 and Georgia -6.5), going 2-1 there, but we would’ve been over .500 regardless. That’s the name of the game, right? To win over 50% of the bets? Well, we’re at a 60% success rate so far with one losing week (6-7 week 2).

The SEC Insider, though, is off to a rough start in 2024. Just 3-7 overall, 0-3 last week and already 0-1 this week with a parlay that couldn’t even make it to Saturday. Maybe I shouldn’t be posting this blog until Saturday morning.

And a special shoutout the Prem League Advisor. Guy (or gal) is 4-0 overall and 2-0 on picks this year. I always take the Saturday morning Prem League bet and you should as well.

Let’s recap last week, Colin Cowherd-style, beginning with the worst losses, because of INTEGRITY.

Where Griff was WRONG:

I took the wrong side in the Toretto. North Texas (miserably) failed to cover +10 at Texas Tech, losing 66-21, even though I wrote that the over made sense. I had the right idea, but just took the wrong side, and for that, I’m sorry. It’s the first loss on the Toretto this year. I promise I will do better.

As mentioned, trailing the (anonymous) SEC Insider has not been great in 2024. Shoutout to Kentucky for having an electric atmosphere at Kroger Field in what was one of the most memorable games I’ve ever been to (I saw someone get punched in left eye and the left temple, kinda sick). But Georgia just couldn’t do anything on offense most of the game and only won 13-12, as a 22-point favorite, thanks to Mark Stoops being a worse game manager than Nathaniel Hackett. Take a fucking chance, Mark! You think field goals are gonna win you a game against the (former) #1 team in the country? You’re in plus territory with under two minutes then take a penalty and end up punting? Maybe go for it on at least one fourth down. He was probably dreaming of College Station that entire night and now he’s never gonna get another opportunity like that. Mark Stoops’ career will die in Lexington.

Colorado State never had a chance. I didn’t watch a second of this game because it started at the same time as UK-UGA and I’m glad I didn’t. Colorado won 28-9 and Shedeur gave Rams QB Brayden Fowler-Nicolsi all the smoke. Just a bad miscalculation from me.

Side note: I still don’t think Shedeur should be a first round pick next year but some dumb GM (in Cleveland, probably) will throw all their eggs in the Sanders basket and they will be rewarded with whatever is depressing to find in an egg on an Easter egg hunt. Perhaps a Werther’s Original. I imagine a Werther’s Original would be upsetting for a child born after 2010 to find in an Easter egg. I would love a Werther’s Original right now.

Where Griff was RIGHT:

Oregon covered 16.5 in their 49-14 win over Oregon State. I knew that line was just weird as hell and I’m glad I stuck to my gut on it.

Georgia State beat Vandy straight up, 36-32, despite being 10.5 point dawgs. I shoulda sprinkled moneyline but I’ll take the ATS win.

The Hoosiers absolutely steamrolled UCLA, 42-13, in a primetime victory in the Rose Bowl. Coach Cig is turning around this program and I’m actually enjoying following IU football for the first time since Nate Sudfeld was the quarterback.

Happy Saturday. Let’s get to the picks.

CFB (8-6 last week / 24-16 in 2024 / 163-151-2 since 2022):

Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (2-1 in 2024, 11-7-1 overall): Indiana -28 vs Charlotte: IU starts Big Ten play next week at home vs Maryland, so this could be seen as a trap game. I don’t think Coach Cig is worried about Maryland. Right after he got hired, he went to Assembly Hall and called out Ohio State, Michigan and Purdue. He said. “I don’t take a backseat to anybody and don’t plan on starting now.” Does that sound like a guy who is worried about Maryland? IU has outscored their three inferior opponents 150-23 this season. I think Cig wants to inflict pain upon Charlotte.

Mississippi State +6.5 vs Florida AND over 58: I’m fading the SEC Insider here. In what world should Florida be favored by nearly a TD on the road in the SEC? I don’t care that Miss St got blown out at home by Toledo last week. Billy Napier should NEVER be a favorite again. Florida is 1-7 ATS in their last eight. Since 2021, they’re 5-9 ATS on the road and the over is 10-4 in those games.

Ohio State -40 vs Marshall: Hand up, I hate this pick, but I made it before I did some research. OSU is 4-5-1 ATS as a favorite of 39 or more since 2017 and just 1-3-1 since 2022. I just felt that OSU should easily cover this off a bye and with the expectations they have. However, the overs in such games are 7-3 in that same time-span. O/U as of this writing is 52.5.

Navy (1H +6) vs Memphis: “In the past decade, Army, Navy and Air Force are 91-59 ATS as underdogs in the first half spread” when facing non-service academy teams. We hit this with Air Force vs Baylor last week so I’m riding again. Also, I’m not sure how good Memphis really is. A win against Florida State is meaningless now.

Notre Dame -27.5 vs Miami (OH): Since 2017, ND is 7-2 ATS in September when playing with at least one loss. Since the 2017 season, after a win by 20+ points, they are 23-14-1 ATS.

Louisville -10 vs Georgia Tech: As I wrote a couple weeks ago, I think Louisville is a top-15 team (right now they are #19) and they will continue to show it. Off a bye and covering 29 and 39.5 point spreads so far is a great sign for this team. GT, meanwhile, has a win vs a shitty FSU team in Ireland, wins vs Georgia State and Vermont, and a loss at Syracuse, who lost to Stanford in the Dome last night. I don’t know how good GT is, I just think UofL is a whole lot better. And shoutout to Roman Reigns and Cody Rhodes for that Smackdown promo at GT last night. Very cool from the WWE.

Utah -1 at Oklahoma State: This is a big play for me because I’m fading the SEC Insider’s MWP. Just can’t trust this individual right now. Their head is not in the right space. Perhaps the upcoming election is taking a toll on this person. Reports are that Cam Rising is playing. Since 2020, in ranked vs ranked matchups, favorites are 124-93-5 ATS. Note: Nebraska did lose last night as a favorite vs Illinois in such matchup.

Miami (FL) -16.5 at South Florida: Yeah, USF played a good game in Tuscaloosa before getting torched in the final minutes of that game. Cam Ward will be in New York for the Heisman ceremony. Over the last 20 years, Miami (FL) is 15-4 ATS when playing another Florida team on the road or at a neutral site.

Tennessee (1H -3.5) at Oklahoma: In six years as a head coach at UCF and Tennessee, Josh Heupel’s teams are “43-17-2 ATS in the first half – the most profitable ATS of 305 head coaches. That includes a record of 22-7-1 1H ATS away from home.” Tennessee covered the 1H spread in week one vs Chattanooga (-24.5, leading 45-0), week two vs NC State (-4.5, leading 20-3) and week 3 vs Kent State (-31.5, leading 65-0). Just follow the numbers.

Oregon State -5 vs Purdue: Since 2021, Oregon State are 16-4 ATS in home games when they are favored by less than a touchdown. Since 2021, the Beavers are 5-0 SU/ATS at home off a straight-up loss. This line has moved to 3.5.

SEC Insider picks of the weekend (0-3 last week / 3-7 in 2024, 36-32-2 overall):

*Editors note: last week, this Insider (could be anyone) texted me “Oklahoma v Tulsa 1st half U 23.5” even though Oklahoma played Tulane and Oklahoma State played Tulsa. Hand up, I should’ve caught that. But we should all take caution with this person’s picks until we see some more wins.

*the following is verbatim*

Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (1-2 in 2024, 12-6 overall): Oklahoma State -2.5 vs Utah (*Editor’s note: I can confirm that OK St is hosting Utah today) – Gundy and the Pokes are 17-6 in games where the spread is -3/+3 in the last 10 years. Utah 2-7 in last 9 road games against ranked teams. This Cam Rising stuff is getting tired. Is he hurt or not? Just weird. Love Gundy and this team and think they’re poised for a run.

Ohio State -39.5 vs Marshall – If tOSU is who we think they are they should win by 50. Look for the offense and the silver bullets to really be clicking with conference play starting next week

ECU +6.5 vs Liberty – I think Liberty is fraudulent. A trusted CFB insider loves this play. My colleague can’t be wrong two weeks in a row can they? (*Editor’s note: the Insider is a tad skeptical of this play after learning that potential 1st round pick from ECU, CB Shavon Revel Jr., tore his ACL in practice this week, texting me, “May need an edit”)

Florida -6 vs Mississippi State – as bad as Florida is, Mississippi State could be 10x worse. Full rebuild in Starkville. What the hell happened against Toledo last week? Word is MSU (sic) didnt have a player good enough to start for Toledo. That’s sad.

Bonus parlay (!!!): Ok State -2.5/Vandy +20/Tenn -7/ECU +6/Ark +3/Tulane -3/Cuse -9 – LOSS (Cuse lost by two at home to Stanford last night)

We’re all due for a 7 legger to hit eh? (*Editor’s note: we’re not)

Prem League Advisor pick of the weekend (2-0 in 2024, 4-0 overall):

Tottenham ML + Leicester City Double Chance / Parlay +118

Tottenham has had a really tough schedule to start losing to both Arsenal and Newcastle. At Home Saturday I expect a hungry team to come out with the win. Leicester has Everton at Home. I think Everton get relegated this year. I would think at worst this is a draw but think Leicester is the better side.