Quick write-up. I’ll have boots on the ground for the UK-UGA game tomorrow so no time to write in the morning.
Went 6-7 last week (I added Arkansas live +6.5) with some bad screw jobs in the early slate. The Toretto hit for the second week in a row. The mainstream bias has me on a game tonight (Friday). Prem League is back this weekend which means a pick from the Advisor, who had boots on the ground in Europe last week.
Let’s get to the picks.
CFB (6-7 last week / 15-10 in 2024 / 154-145-2 since 2022):
Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (2-0 in 2024, 11-6-1 overall): North Texas +10 at Texas Tech: Tech held off Abilene Christian (?) 52-51 in overtime in week one then fell at Washington State, 37-16, last week. North Texas is 2-0 with wins at South Alabama (they scored 87 points Thursday night), 52-38, and a 15 pt home win vs who gives a shit. The over (69.5) makes sense here but 10 points vs the 129th ranked passing defense, while the UNT QB has 737 passing yards in two games, is too enticing.
UNLV +9.5 at Kansas (Friday): Mainstream Bias Pick of the Week (0-2 in 2024)
Missouri -14.5 vs Boston College: I just think Mizzou is head and shoulders better than BC and SEC owns ACC (see last week’s Tennessee pick and disregard the Auburn pick). BC has wins at Florida State (we know they suck now) and 56-0 vs Duquesso. Cool. Mizzou Coach Drink is trying to run up the score on their opponents to prove that his team belongs in the SEC title conversation. They’ve outscored G5 teams 89-0. Also cool. Drink needs to win big vs a P4 team to prove his theory. I’m gonna back him to do just that.
Oregon -16.5 at Oregon State: This is weird, right? Watching Barstool Pick Em this week helped set my brain straight on this. No reason for Oregon to be favored by this much at OSU. So I’m taking Oregon.
Texas A&M at Florida (under 47): Florida replaced Mertz at QB with a freshman, who played well against Samford, but will have to deal with a real defense this week and is probably pooping his pants. Notre Dame’s offense may not be that great, but A&M still looked good on D in that week one game. They beat McNeese St last week, 52-10, but I just think game one of SEC play will bring out the best of the defenses in this one.
Georgia State +10.5 vs Vanderbilt: Kinda like the Oregon-OSU game, this should be an easy bet on Vandy. But I think Georgia State has em in a good spot. Vandy will win, but the Panthers keep it close. Maybe a trap game for Vandy cause they’re at Mizzou next week and they’re riding high with two wins so they think they’ll have an easy win here vs 1-1 Georgia State and they’ll get too hyped up about that Mizzou game and won’t think too much of this game. I’m in my own head with this one. Definitely fade it.
Georgia -22 at Kentucky: Trailing the SEC Insider.
Air Force (1H +9.5) at Baylor: “In the past decade, Army, Navy and Air Force are 90-59 ATS as underdogs in the first half spread” when facing non-service academy teams. I’m not sure how much life Dave Arranda has left in him. Facing the option doesn’t help. Also, AF beat Baylor in a bowl game in 2022 by 15 points as a 3.5 point underdog, if that matters.
Indiana -3 at UCLA: Just like Donald J. Trump on Tuesday night, I’m taking the bait, because I just can’t resist it. Hoosiers favored at the Rose Bowl in primetime on Saturday night. You kidding me? I would ABSOLUTELY avoid taking this bet if I were you but I just can’t pass on it. But a stat for ya, IU has covered three straight ATS on the road going back to last season.
Colorado State +7 vs Colorado: Give me one reason why you’d wanna take Colorado in this game and I’ll tell you that’s a bad reason. Colorado has never been able to back up their talk. Rado St made this a huge game last year. It’s gonna be a huge game Saturday night. Rams QB Brayden Fowler-Nicolsi said, “…we’ll see how far Instagram followers gets them.” Colorado State wants the smoke. I want the Rams.
Tennessee (1H -31.5) vs Kent State: In six years as a head coach at UCF and Tennessee, Josh Heupel’s teams are “42-17-2 ATS in the first half – the most profitable ATS of 305 head coaches.” Tennessee covered the 1H spread in week one vs Chattanooga (-24.5, leading 45-0) and week two vs NC State (-4.5, leading 20-3). Just follow the numbers.
SEC Insider picks of the weekend (1-2 last week / 3-3 in 2024, 36-28-2 overall):
*the following is verbatim*
I want to preface this by saying that I didn’t like much of anything I saw on the board this week. But we are here to give picks so that’s what I am going to do.
Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (1-1 in 2024, 12-5 overall): Georgia -22 at UK
I think Stoops has quit on this team. He sounds defeated and wishes he was in College Station. I think Brock Vandagriff knows what’s on the other side of the ball and will be looking to tuck all game. Beck spreads it around and good D from the Dawgs. Will the fans show? Plenty of cheap tix online!
Oklahoma v Tulsa 1st half U 23.5
Was given this pick. I think OK D is pretty good and their offense kind of stinks.
Colorado State +7 (ML)
Revenge for the Rams. Shilo, the heart and soul of the team, is out. (You like those commas Griff?) (*Editor’s note: I do.) I’m going ML. This could be a pure hate play by me but this is where I am going.
Prem League Advisor pick of the weekend (1-0 in 2024, 3-0 overall): Man City + Man U ML parlay +100: Had drinks with a couple from Manchester the other night. World class banter. Did not ask who they supported. We will take both teams just in case in honor of Rory and Ella.
Griffin Weinberg 