The air just smells better.
I hope you found some time last Saturday to touch the grass and just take it all in. I sure did. So much so that I burned my skull because I was stupid to not put sunscreen on so I was forced to wear a beanie when I went for a run this (Thursday) afternoon (2.01 mi/8:01 pace up-hill up-wind). I just started the peeling process.
What a boring week one of college football. Outside of the Colorado-TCU game it was a complete dud. But man-oh-man did it feel good to open up the (alleged) gambling account again and (allegedly) fire off a healthy dose of bets. We went 8-7 last week. I added Clemson-Duke o55 and now Dabo may not be back next season. But I can’t complain because we finished over 50% for the week. And the Toretto hit which was the easiest pick I’ll make all year. Love and Honor is not the real Miami.
And now we add NFL into the mix. I got some futures I’m enthralled by, Chiefs spread tonight (Thursday) and Sunday picks to make (I haven’t decided if I’m locking in NFL picks at this very moment. Scroll down to see what I decided.)
The SEC Insider (insert gif of Will Ferrell and Cheri Oteri as the spartan cheerleaders saying “I don’t know, I don’t know”) went a rather fine 3-1 in their season debut. The only loss for the Insider was South Carolina, and the line I was given by this unknown homosapien was -2.5, when, in fact, THE (not the real) USC was actually +2.5. I just noticed that a few minutes ago. So…
I’d also like to announce the addition of new segment: the Prem League Advisor. Only thing better than waking up on Saturday morning and watching a ball get kicked around is (legally) gambling on that game which said ball is getting kicked around. That will always be at the bottom of the blog. (Editors note: As I’m writing this, I went to double-check the line of the Tottenham game and discovered that there is no EPL this weekend. The Advisor is not off to a good start.)
Let’s get to the picks.
CFB (8-7 lin 2023 / 115-103-1 since 2022):
Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (1-0 in 2023, 7-5-1 overall): Nebraska at Colorado (-2): Deion is here.
Indiana State at Indiana (u45.5): I think ISU scored zero in week one and IU doesn’t have an offense capable of a blowout like they’re projected to have.
Illinois at Kansas (-3): I looked at this line and wondered why Kansas was only favored by a field goal, then I read that Jalon Daniels was out week one, but now he’s back for this game, so why wouldn’t I take Kansas? It’s too obvious.
Notre Dame (-7.5) at NC State: Let’s all acknowledge that Sam Hartman is is just older than everyone and that actually does matter.
Ball State at Geaorgia (u52): I don’t think Ball State scores. I don’t think Georgia puts up 50.
Marshall at East Carolina (+3): Marshall beat some nobody week one and ECU lost at Michigan like they were supposed to. I don’t know who the HC is but I respect the hell out of kicking that last-second FG to avoid the shutout.
Cincinnati (+7.5) at Pitt: See above. Pitt beats Wofford and UC scores 66 points against a more-known team in EKU. It’s not easy to score 66 points.
James Madison (-6.5) at Virginia: I know JMU is a legitimate D1 team now but this line is just too funny to not take. A dumb guy like myself would think Virginia is the easy bet here.
Utah at Baylor (+8): Dave Arranda can’t be that bad of a coach. This is a great bounce back spot for Baylor. I bet Utah was prepping the backup QB the whole summer. Now Arranda has tape on him.
Ole Miss at Tulane (+7.5): Why not Tulane? Pick em guys sold me on it.
Iowa at Iowa State (u36.5): It just has to go under.
UTEP (-2) at Northwestern: Wildcats will not win without Pat Fitzgerald.
App State at UNC (058): Just like last year.
Ohio at FAU (-3.5): a Rico Bosco pick. Tom Hermann at home in a non-power 5 game. May add the over here at a later time.
Oregon (-6.5) at Texas Tech: Always follow the Insider.
Texas at Alabama (-7): I think both coaches were planning for this game all summer instead of their week one games. Saban is a better coach than Sarkisian (I had to google his name because I forgot).
UCONN (+3) at Georgia State: Is Jim Mora not the coach anymore? What’s going on here?
Oklahoma State (-3) at Arizona State: What I remember about ASU is they have sanctions and fallout from Herm Edwards. Mike Gundy is a sure thing.
Stanford at USC (o69.5): USC just puts up points and has a bad defense and Stanford scored 37 on the road at Hawaii week one. This feels like a plug-and-play.
NFL (I stopped this blog week 11 of NFL last year and I don’t feel like going through my receipts to add up the totals, so we’re 0-0 right now):
Futures:
Arizona Cardinals under 4.5 wins: It’s full tank mode. I dont’t care what their schedule looks like. Gannon will get fired after this year too. He’s an obvious scapegoat. Like Gibby form iCarly.
Cincinnati Bengals over 11 wins: The only games the Bengals lose are divisional games. And they’re not losing five divisional games.
New England Patriots 0ver 7 wins: A real OC is there now (Bill O’Brien), Pats sent Zappe and Willis to the pracatice squad because they believe in Mac Jones, and they’ll still have a good defense. They will win at least two home divisional games and one more on the road. The other five wins will be there.
Week 1:
Detroit at KC (-4.5): don’t doubt Mahomes in week one.
TBA…
SEC Insider picks of the weekend (3-1 in 2023, 25-20-1 overall):
*the following is verbatim
Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (0-0 in 2023, 8-4 overall): Oregon (-6.5) at Texas Tech – I know I know…. Bo Nix on the road yadda yadda yadda. Why don’t we praise Bo like we praised Tebow? I don’t get it. I don’t think we’ve seen someone work as hard as Bo has worked this off-season. Bo’s last year in college – the road game blues are no more. We may see Bo in New York later this year. Texas Tech stinks and is banged up- 2OTs at Wyoming and a L? Oregon gets healthy this week too. More push-ups incoming for the mascot duck.
New Mexico State +10
Holy disrespect – New Mexico State beat liberty at in November by about 100 last year. Has that much really changed? I see NMS using this as a motivation point. I’m out on liberty in the post Hugh Freeze era.
Pitt -7.5
We’re fading the bearcats and Emory Jones this year. Glad UC had their moment last weekend against EKU because the crash and burn starts this week. Pitt plays hard nosed ball. Satterfield and UL beat Pitt last year, Narduzzi looking for revenge #H2P
Oklahoma State -3
This one comes down to coaching for me. I’ve watched a few Dillingham interviews recently and this guy can’t be a real human being. He just speaks in ism’s and catch phrases. Give me a break. Give me “I’m a man, I’m 40”. Feels like gundy needs a road win – road has felt rocky in Stillwater lately.
Prem League Advisor pick of the weekend (0-0): Should be 0-1 in my opinion
Griffin Weinberg 