Category: Blog

Big rebound last weekend. I think read into a little bit of bias when I was making picks a couple of weeks ago and it threw me off. Last week was like Martin Lawrence asking “The Sledgehammer” to teach Big Mac math, but instead of him actually teaching her math, “The Sledgehammer” taught me to ignore the math and trust the science that is me simply looking at a line and liking it. (Editor’s note: I understand not everyone will get that reference but “Rebound” is a classic 2000s comedy and I won’t apologize for it). Also, it’s a lot easier to make picks when you’re drinking (responsibly) and the group chat says they’re taking a side and you throw your money on that (still, responsibly).

All-in-all, we went 6-7 in college football and 5-4 on the NFL. That’s an even 11-11 (thanks Big Mac). The Toretto pick hit again and I’ll be following that algorithm again this week by taking USC. I actually went 1-3 on picks from the group chat so really I had a winning week if you look at it. The SEC Insider went 1-2 but the mouthwatering pick moved to 3-0 with the Dawgs rolling again.

NFL picks woulda looked a lot better if not for the AFC North looking like a train wreck. Save for the Steelers hitting the under, I was in the contingent of Browns & Ravens backers that just crushed our collective souls. And then the Bengals. At the end of the day, we rebounded. Let’s get to the picks:

CFB (25-21 overall):

Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (2-1): USC (-6.5) at Oregon State – ride or die

Maryland at Michigan (-16.5)

Clemson at Wake Forest (+7.5 AND over 55.5) – the science loved these picks from the jump.

Central Michigan at Penn State (-27.5) – CMU lost to some “USA” team a couple of weeks ago, so let’s call this America’s Pick of the Week.

Duke at Kansas (-7.5) – ESPN should’ve sent Jay Bilas and Dickie V to call this game with Reece Davis. Duke has played some bums so far so I’ll take my neighboring state.

James Madison (+7.5) at App. State – this would’ve been my “take it or leave it” pick if USC didn’t cover last week.

Indiana at Cincinnati (-16.5) – As an IU alum, I know when to not get your hopes up about Indiana football when things seem like they’re going in the right direction. I’ve had a lot of training as a Bengals fan.

Southern Miss. at Tulane (-12.5) – this is strictly betting against Brett Favre.

Vanderbilt at Alabama (-40.5) – negative publicity around Vandy and the science just loved this one.

Kansas State at Oklahoma (-12.5) – I think the Sooners are just really good and need to be favored by more in games against far inferior opponents. Translation: the line is too low.

Hawaii (+4.5) at New Mexico St. – these teams suck, this should be a pickem so take the points.

SEC Insider picks of the weekend (4-4-1 overall):

Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (3-0): Arkansas (+2.5) at Texas A&M – “what looks to be a big year for the Hogs playing in former Hog Jerry Jones (sic) palace? What could go wrong?”

Duke at Kansas (-7.5)

James Madison (+7.5) at App. State

NFL (*8-12 overall):

*Browns -4.5 was the TNF pick*

BAL (-2.5) at NE – this line is too fishy to not take. I might be dumb.

BUF (-4.5 AND over 52.5) at MIA – taking the over because you have to in this game and I ultimately think the Bills are the best team in the league.

KC (-5.5) at IND – again, too fishy so I’m taking the bait.

GB AT TB (under 42.5) – trust the science

SF (-1.5) at DEN – Jimmy G back under the lights feels right and I think Hackett won’t be able to handle primetime again. In fact, Hackett might be a fraud.

Last week could not have gone any better. The team went 13-6 and Dom Toretto’s pick (USC -32.5) was an easy hit.

There were a few late adds from the initial blog (NC -11.5, Michigan -30.5, Troy +21.5 and the over in LSU-FSU). Those picks went 2-2. Also, the SEC Insider (whoever that may be) went 1-0-1. Shoulda bought the half point to bring Arkansas down to -6.5 like my psycho ass. And instead of “toying with the idea” of taking Florida ml, the kid (could also be an adult) needs to learn to just pull the trigger.

Anyway, I didn’t do much research for Week 1 so I’ll do the same for this week. The SEC Insider and I (good grammar) are on the opposite side of a few games so we’ll see who’s the smarter one after this week. I’ll point out the mainstream bias in my picks when they happen, but let’s get into it.

Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (1-0): Alabama (-20.5) at Texas

I think Bama wins by three touchdowns. Saban is gonna give Sarkisian a “welcome to the SEC” moment. He lost to Jimbo and Kirby last season, first times he’s ever lost to a former assistant (I believe), and I think he knows that and wants to prove a point here.

Louisville at UCF (-6.5) – there was a little mainstream bias in this one.

Arkansas State at Ohio State (-44.5) – also this one.

Tennessee at Pitt (+6.5) – my friend’s sibling went Tennessee. This friend told me their sibling drafted Gronk in fantasy earlier this week. I took Pitt immediately.

Appalachian State at Texas A&M (-18.5) – I don’t think App St. can put together a competitive game in College Station after what happened last week.

Houston at Texas Tech (over 62.5) – these two teams just scream “over”…so I bet they combine for 20 total points. I’m doing it anyway.

ODU at ECU (over 51.5) – there’s some mainstream bias here but I also think ECU will go for it a lot more after their kicker absolutely blew chunks last week (be nice Griff).

USC (-7.5) at Stanford – Dom Toretto is the poster boy for “ride or die” so I’m rolling with them again.

Baylor at BYU (over 53.5) – Big Cat’s Game of the Year.

SEC Insider picks of the weekend:

Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (1-0): Tennessee (-6) at Pitt

Alabama at Texas (+20)

South Carolina (+8.5) at Arkansas – I will probably add this one to my card

Kentucky at Florida (-6)

(*Editor’s note: The Insider told me their picks after I already put mine in so that’s why the lines are different on Tenn-Pitt and Bama-Texas)

Dun dun duh-duh-dun dun…duh-duh-duh-duh-duh-duh-duh-duh-DUN.

Can’t believe the NFL is back. I’m excited to get disappointed by my fantasy team and gamble with money I shouldn’t be gambling with (responsibly). College football Week 1 was a success, from both a viewing perspective and (allegedly) my venmo account. Now it’s time for the NFL to follow suit.

Hard Knocks was pretty good and it got me thinking about ATS records for teams that were on the show, only for their Week 1 games. I couldn’t find that specific stat anywhere so I did the research myself, using Pro Football Reference (*Editor’s note: Tampa Bay was on Hard Knocks in 2017 but their season opener against the Dolphins was postponed because of Hurricane Irma, so I did not count their first game that was played in Week 2 (in which they covered as favorites and the under hit)):

Hard Knocks team ATS in Week 1: 8-7-1

HK outright wins as underdogs: 2

Opponent outright wins as underdogs: 5

Under is 11-5

2001: Ravens, -10.5, o/u 33.5…Final CHI (6) at BAL (17)

2002: Cowboys, -8.5, o/u 33.5…Final: DAL (10) at HOU (19)

2007: Chiefs, +3, o/u 38…Final: KC (3) at HOU (20)

2008: Cowboys, -6, o/u 48.5…Final: DAL (28) at CLE (10)

2009: Bengals, -5, o/u 41…Final: DEN (12) at CIN (7) (Brandon Stokley can kiss-my-anthia)

2010: Jets, -1, o/u 36.5…Final: BAL (10) at NYJ (9)

2012: Dolphins, +13.5, o/u 41.5…Final: MIA (10) at HOU (30)

2013: Bengals, +3, o/u 41.5…Final: CIN (21) at CHI (24)

2014: Falcons, +3, o/u 51.5…Final: NO (34) at ATL (37) in OT

2015: Texans, -1, o/u 41…Final: KC (27) at HOU (20)

2016: Rams, -2.5, o/u 43…Final: LAR (0) at SF (28)

2018: Browns, +3.5, o/u 41…Final: PIT (21) at CLE (21)

2019: Raiders, +3, o/u 42.5…Final: DEN (16) at OAK (24)

2020: Chargers, -2.5, o/u 41.5…Final: LAC (16) at CIN (13)

2020: Rams, -1, o/u 52…Final: DAL (17) at LAR (20)

2021: Cowboys, +8.5, o/u 52…Fina: DAL (29) at TB (31)

2022: Lions (+4) vs. Eagles, o/u 48.5

Lions are at home so they seem like a sexy pick, especially cause Hard Knocks teams have covered in five straight Week 1 games, but I just can’t do it. However, I will be confidently betting the under.

More picks are below some futures I’m taking.

Seahawks Under 5.5 Regular Season Wins (+115)

I am so down on the Seahawks this year. I think they may be the worst team in the league. Do you really trust Geno Smith and Drew Lock?

Bobby Wagner is gone, that’s gonna hurt the morale for the defense and the locker room. Plus money here is a steal.

Bengals Over 10 Regular Season Wins (even money)

If the Bengals don’t win 11 games this year then something didn’t go right. (*Editor’s note: Rams o/u is 10.5 I think, which is appealing, but this Stafford elbow stuff freaks me out so I’m staying away from that)

AFC North winner: Bengals (+120)

Why are the Ravens the outright favorite? WHO DEY.

AFC South winner: Jaguars (+640)

Just doing this one for fun. Maybe Doug Pedersen will be the difference. Maybe Trevor Lawrence makes a Joe Burrow-esque second-year leap. Maybe the Colts and Titans underperform.

NFC North winner: Vikings (+230)

This is a mainstream bias pick. If the hype around Kevin O’Connell is real and the Kirk Cousins/Mike Zimmer drama was bringing the team down, this could very well happen. This is also me banking on Aaron Rodgers really missing a true #1 wideout.

MVP: Jalen Hurts (+2100)

Also a bit of a mainstream bias pick but this is really good value.

Onto to the *tentative picks:

Bills at Rams (ml +115) & o52 – I forgot to buy the half point but it’s always the over for the first game of the season. Rams ml because I’m pretty sure McVay’s got a great record when he gets extra time to prepare and it’s a home dog.

Dom Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” NFL Pick of the Weekend: Steelers at Bengals (-6.5) – WHO DEY.

Saints at Falcons (+5.5) – I could absolutely see the Falcons getting wrecked but I’ll tell ya why I like them here: Dennis Allen has the bad HC record (like 8-28, I think (*Editor’s note: yeah I stopped doing actual research cause it took me a while to look up those Hard Knocks numbers and I need to go to bed)) and Arthur Smith will throw everything he’s got into this game because the Falcons won’t have a good chance to win much more after this one.

Eagles at Lions (Under 48.5) – Following the numbers on this one.

Broncos (-6.5) at Seahawks – Again, I just don’t like Seattle at all this year. Give me the Russ revenge game and LET’S RIDE.

It just feels different. I woke up this (Thursday) morning, September 1st, with an extra pep in my step. Whenever I work the midnight shift, I’ll wake up the next morning at 8am, open up my right eye (it takes a few minutes for the left eye to start functioning), scroll the phone for about a half hour, finally get up, make some coffee and start my day (i.e. sit on my couch for an hour and watch the Dan Patrick Show). But that wasn’t the case today. No, sir. Today I woke up, opened both of my eyes and scrolled the phone for about 20 minutes before making some coffee and staring at the board (with DP on in the background). I had a good week 0, going 3-1, which is important for two (2) reasons: I can’t afford to gamble so I have to win and that gave me some confidence when looking at the board this week. There’s very little mainstream bias in my picks, mostly gut feelings, so we shall see. Below my picks I will have my SEC insider’s picks of the weekend. Happy college football Week 1 everybody. (Editor’s note: I’ll almost always buy a half point because I hate pushing and I’m paranoid enough to think the whole number will always hit)

Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week: Rice at USC (-32.5)

WVU (+7.5) at Pitt

Ball St. at Tennessee (-35.5)

Houston at UTSA (over 61.5) – bought half point

Oregon at Georgia (-16.5) – bought half point

Cincinnati at Arkansas (-6.5) – bought half point

Texas St. at Nevada (ml -115)

MTSU at James Madison (-5.5) – bought half point

Army at Coastal Carolina (over 53.5) – bought half point

UMass at Tulsa (over 59)

• Late add: Miami (OH) at Kentucky (-16.5)

Georgia St. at South Carolina (-12.5)

Notre Dame at Ohio St. (-16.5) – bought half point

*Late add: ND-OSU o58.5 – bought half point

Boise St. (ml +120) at Oregon St.

SEC Insider picks of the weekend:

Mouth Watering Pick of the Week: Georgia -17

Cincinnati at Arkansas (-7)

“I am toying with the idea of Florida ml (+125)” at home vs. Utah

When’s the last time you asked yourself, “What the fuck am I doing?”

Take a second and think about it. I guarantee you’ve said this at least once your life. Maybe you don’t use expletives (I won’t judge you if you’re and H-E-double hockey sticks kinda person), but you’ve said this to yourself before.

This question can be a negative or positive thing and it doesn’t have to be about life or be super serious. Maybe there was a time when you chose to eat at KFC instead of Chick-fil-A and you grabbed a chicken breast out of your chicken bucket, took that first bite, then looked down at your hands, lathered in grease and oils like you’re in the middle of giving a massage to The Colonel, and thought, “What the fuck am I doing?” Personally, I’ve never encountered this problem because I’m not a communist and would never elect to go to KFC over Chick-fil-A but you do you. But maybe there was a more honest moment in your life when you had to stop and ask yourself, “What the fuck am I doing?”

For me, this has become a recurring thing over the last few years. There’s been days I would wake up, stare at the ceiling (or the bottom of the bunk bed above me because I still live at home please don’t judge me) for a minute and ask myself that question. There were times when I would be walking to or from class, a young and stout sports broadcasting major at Indiana University, listening to Pardon My Take or The Bill Simmons Podcast and that question would just pop into my head. I don’t know why, but it did. Or more recently, three weeks ago to be exact, after I quit my potential six-figure job in home sales to continue chasing a career in the broadcast industry.

Side note: I strongly recommend you quit at least one job in your life. It was truly one of the most exhilarating feelings I’ve ever had. You don’t have to make a scene or do anything too crazy (although I bet that would be a pretty dope feeling, like that dude who quit his job at Popeyes by rapping it in the store), but it’s a unique feeling you won’t find anywhere else.

I knew quitting that job was a big risk, but I’ve always embraced the challenge of taking a big risk. I could’ve gone to a local school with lots of my friends from high school, but I wanted to get out of my comfort zone and force myself to meet new people.

‘nother side note: I hate meeting new people. I know that’s a terrible mentality to have, but if you gave me the option of going out or staying in to to drink alcohol and watch a game or a movie, I’m choosing to stay in about 80% of the time (you gotta have some fun at least some of the time).

I could’ve studied something basic like business or marketing, but I chose IU because they have the best sports media program around and I wanted to do something that would make me feel electric. I knew I wanted a job where people would hear what I had to say after I single-handedly led my high school student section to the state football championship our senior year (shut up Reid and Bull, let me have my moment). And I accomplished both of those tasks in school. I met some dope people, some not-so-dope people, and experienced some amazing experiences I never thought I’d experience (real writers know how to take one word and use it three different ways).

But quitting that job was probably the biggest risk I’ve taken. Prior to accepting that position, I spent about five months of my life after graduation feeling more emotions than a mood ring. The job market hit me like a fucking wrecking ball and I didn’t fire any shots back (thank you Ms. Rose for teaching me similes/metaphors). Not having a job, combined with seeing all my friends moving on with their lives, made me depressed as shit. I wasn’t really talking to anyone and I couldn’t look my parents in the eyes whenever I had dinner with either of them. They tried to get me out of my funk but their words would go in one ear and out the other. At that point, the ONLY thing that was gonna make me happy again was to find a job. So I started looking for work outside of broadcasting. One day, I was conversing with my friend from school and he was telling me about his job in home sales and said I should try applying. I got hired exactly one week later. All of the negative emotions I felt from the five months prior just washed away faster than Kevin Spacey’s career. I was finally happy again.

Now let’s get back to the part about me quitting the job that finally made me happy again.

I didn’t hate the job at all. In fact, it was really enjoyable most of the time. I had a salary (for the time being), all the benefits, people I enjoyed working with, the whole nine yards. But I decided to quit after only two months because it wasn’t the career for me. There were many days at work when I’d be practicing touring a home or just be sitting at my desk and would think to myself, “What the fuck am I doing?” But this was a positive version of that question. Remember that scene from Role Models when the guy is in Elizabeth Banks’ office after stealing all those TV’s? I kinda felt like that but only questioning myself. “Me? Griffin Weinberg? Trying to sell homes?!?” THAT is not me.

After telling my sales manager I couldn’t work there any longer, I walked out to my car, knowing damn well I didn’t have a clue what I was gonna do next, and let the adrenaline flow throughout my body. I opened the front door to my teal-ish colored Corolla, sat down, took a deep breath, exhaled said deep breath, and let the realization of what I had just done hit me. After taking a minute to recollect myself, I asked aloud, “What the fuck am I doing?”

But again, this was a positive version of that question. Like I was half-smiling when I asked that to myself while sitting in my car. I felt rejuvenated after quitting that job. I FEEL rejuvenated after quitting that job. Although I’m currently still unemployed, I’m not gonna fall back into that cave I was trapped in while I was depressed (unless falling into that cave means I’m gonna be Batman some day then I guess I’m cool with that).

I got a new lease on life, and I mean that both literally and metaphorically. Literally, I just leased an office the other day, dubbed “The Griffin Weinberg Experience,” so I can get out of my house and have a place to get some work done (business 101: you gotta spend money to make money).

No longer am I asking myself, “What the fuck am I doing?” Instead, I ask myself, “What the fuck WAS I doing?”

I honestly haven’t felt this good in a while from a mental standpoint (physically I haven’t worked out in like three months). I’m working on a podcast with a couple guys and I’m starting to make some progress on the job front (cookie crumbs, but it’s progress). And I may start blogging a little bit too, so keep your eyes peeled.

The Chinese calendar claims 2019 is the Year of the Pig, but the Chinese are wrong (no offense).

I say 2019 is the Year of The Berg.

Thanks in advance for your birthday wishes.

Hakuna Matata.