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Quick write-up. CFB went 10-7 last week and NFL 5-4. SEC Insider’s mouthwatering picks are now 4-0. The Bengals came through in a huge spot against Miami. I took -4 and TT o26.5 so thank the lord for Teddy two (2) gloves finding an open Vonn Bell and Joe Burrow getting the job done at the end. I’ll probably tweet out the NFL picks once I get a good look at the Sunday slate. Onto the CFB picks:

CFB (35-28 overall):

Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (2-2): Georgia (-27.5) at Missouri – I had this Saturday night and the SEC Insider (remains anonymous) confirmed it. Dawgs kept Kent State too close last week so Kirby probably kicked their ass in practice. Mizzou had a devastating loss. UGA rolls.

Tulane at Houston (over 54.5) – just keep riding the Houston overs (4-0 this season)

UTSA (TT o34) at MTSU – let down game for MTSU after beating Miami and only time UTSA didn’t hit that number was when they scored 20 in a loss at Texas.

Michigan at Iowa (+11.5) – there’s just something about top 5 teams going to Kinnick Stadium (there is a stat but I’m not looking it up). Only thing that scares me is this isn’t a night game (11 am central kickoff)

Ohio (+11.5) at Kent State – Kent state gave their souls to try and win at Sanford Stadium. They’re in the graveyard like Spurrier’s visor

Northwestern at Penn State (-24.5) – Northwestern may be the worst power 5 team in the nation and they’re too focused on building smaller stadiums instead of covering spreads

Iowa State at Kansas (+3) – home dogs and Kansas might be for real

LSU (-7.5) at Auburn – Bryan Harsin probably pooped his pants after escaping for a win against Mizzou. He’s gonna have diarrhea this week. And LSU’s loss to Florida State is looking better and better each week

Indiana (+4.5) – at Nebraska – this has my science written all over it. Why is Nebraska favored in any game? Tom Allen is probably a fraud but he can beat Nebraska. And That former Nebraska coach who also called Tom Allen a fraud (“clown”) got skirted on social media for all the wrong reasons

Arizona State at USC (-24.5) – Toretto’s pick last week couldn’t get it done but Oregon State has a history of giving USC fits. Arizona State is a program in shambles. I’m not overthinking this one

SEC Insider picks of the weekend (7-4-1 overall):

Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (4-0): Georgia (-27.5) at Missouri – “mouthwatering faucet rain river” (*Editor’s note: ?)

Kentucky at Ole Miss (+7)

Oklahoma State at Baylor (-2) – *Editor’s note: the Insider texted me Baylor +2 but they, in fact, are not +2, so this is pending (*Editor’s note to the Editor’s note: “I had it flipped my fault”)… -2 it is

NFL (*15-16):

*Includes Bengals -4 and TT o26.5*

Big rebound last weekend. I think read into a little bit of bias when I was making picks a couple of weeks ago and it threw me off. Last week was like Martin Lawrence asking “The Sledgehammer” to teach Big Mac math, but instead of him actually teaching her math, “The Sledgehammer” taught me to ignore the math and trust the science that is me simply looking at a line and liking it. (Editor’s note: I understand not everyone will get that reference but “Rebound” is a classic 2000s comedy and I won’t apologize for it). Also, it’s a lot easier to make picks when you’re drinking (responsibly) and the group chat says they’re taking a side and you throw your money on that (still, responsibly).

All-in-all, we went 6-7 in college football and 5-4 on the NFL. That’s an even 11-11 (thanks Big Mac). The Toretto pick hit again and I’ll be following that algorithm again this week by taking USC. I actually went 1-3 on picks from the group chat so really I had a winning week if you look at it. The SEC Insider went 1-2 but the mouthwatering pick moved to 3-0 with the Dawgs rolling again.

NFL picks woulda looked a lot better if not for the AFC North looking like a train wreck. Save for the Steelers hitting the under, I was in the contingent of Browns & Ravens backers that just crushed our collective souls. And then the Bengals. At the end of the day, we rebounded. Let’s get to the picks:

CFB (25-21 overall):

Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (2-1): USC (-6.5) at Oregon State – ride or die

Maryland at Michigan (-16.5)

Clemson at Wake Forest (+7.5 AND over 55.5) – the science loved these picks from the jump.

Central Michigan at Penn State (-27.5) – CMU lost to some “USA” team a couple of weeks ago, so let’s call this America’s Pick of the Week.

Duke at Kansas (-7.5) – ESPN should’ve sent Jay Bilas and Dickie V to call this game with Reece Davis. Duke has played some bums so far so I’ll take my neighboring state.

James Madison (+7.5) at App. State – this would’ve been my “take it or leave it” pick if USC didn’t cover last week.

Indiana at Cincinnati (-16.5) – As an IU alum, I know when to not get your hopes up about Indiana football when things seem like they’re going in the right direction. I’ve had a lot of training as a Bengals fan.

Southern Miss. at Tulane (-12.5) – this is strictly betting against Brett Favre.

Vanderbilt at Alabama (-40.5) – negative publicity around Vandy and the science just loved this one.

Kansas State at Oklahoma (-12.5) – I think the Sooners are just really good and need to be favored by more in games against far inferior opponents. Translation: the line is too low.

Hawaii (+4.5) at New Mexico St. – these teams suck, this should be a pickem so take the points.

SEC Insider picks of the weekend (4-4-1 overall):

Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (3-0): Arkansas (+2.5) at Texas A&M – “what looks to be a big year for the Hogs playing in former Hog Jerry Jones (sic) palace? What could go wrong?”

Duke at Kansas (-7.5)

James Madison (+7.5) at App. State

NFL (*8-12 overall):

*Browns -4.5 was the TNF pick*

BAL (-2.5) at NE – this line is too fishy to not take. I might be dumb.

BUF (-4.5 AND over 52.5) at MIA – taking the over because you have to in this game and I ultimately think the Bills are the best team in the league.

KC (-5.5) at IND – again, too fishy so I’m taking the bait.

GB AT TB (under 42.5) – trust the science

SF (-1.5) at DEN – Jimmy G back under the lights feels right and I think Hackett won’t be able to handle primetime again. In fact, Hackett might be a fraud.

Last week could not have gone any better. The team went 13-6 and Dom Toretto’s pick (USC -32.5) was an easy hit.

There were a few late adds from the initial blog (NC -11.5, Michigan -30.5, Troy +21.5 and the over in LSU-FSU). Those picks went 2-2. Also, the SEC Insider (whoever that may be) went 1-0-1. Shoulda bought the half point to bring Arkansas down to -6.5 like my psycho ass. And instead of “toying with the idea” of taking Florida ml, the kid (could also be an adult) needs to learn to just pull the trigger.

Anyway, I didn’t do much research for Week 1 so I’ll do the same for this week. The SEC Insider and I (good grammar) are on the opposite side of a few games so we’ll see who’s the smarter one after this week. I’ll point out the mainstream bias in my picks when they happen, but let’s get into it.

Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week (1-0): Alabama (-20.5) at Texas

I think Bama wins by three touchdowns. Saban is gonna give Sarkisian a “welcome to the SEC” moment. He lost to Jimbo and Kirby last season, first times he’s ever lost to a former assistant (I believe), and I think he knows that and wants to prove a point here.

Louisville at UCF (-6.5) – there was a little mainstream bias in this one.

Arkansas State at Ohio State (-44.5) – also this one.

Tennessee at Pitt (+6.5) – my friend’s sibling went Tennessee. This friend told me their sibling drafted Gronk in fantasy earlier this week. I took Pitt immediately.

Appalachian State at Texas A&M (-18.5) – I don’t think App St. can put together a competitive game in College Station after what happened last week.

Houston at Texas Tech (over 62.5) – these two teams just scream “over”…so I bet they combine for 20 total points. I’m doing it anyway.

ODU at ECU (over 51.5) – there’s some mainstream bias here but I also think ECU will go for it a lot more after their kicker absolutely blew chunks last week (be nice Griff).

USC (-7.5) at Stanford – Dom Toretto is the poster boy for “ride or die” so I’m rolling with them again.

Baylor at BYU (over 53.5) – Big Cat’s Game of the Year.

SEC Insider picks of the weekend:

Mouth Watering Pick of the Week (1-0): Tennessee (-6) at Pitt

Alabama at Texas (+20)

South Carolina (+8.5) at Arkansas – I will probably add this one to my card

Kentucky at Florida (-6)

(*Editor’s note: The Insider told me their picks after I already put mine in so that’s why the lines are different on Tenn-Pitt and Bama-Texas)

Dun dun duh-duh-dun dun…duh-duh-duh-duh-duh-duh-duh-duh-DUN.

Can’t believe the NFL is back. I’m excited to get disappointed by my fantasy team and gamble with money I shouldn’t be gambling with (responsibly). College football Week 1 was a success, from both a viewing perspective and (allegedly) my venmo account. Now it’s time for the NFL to follow suit.

Hard Knocks was pretty good and it got me thinking about ATS records for teams that were on the show, only for their Week 1 games. I couldn’t find that specific stat anywhere so I did the research myself, using Pro Football Reference (*Editor’s note: Tampa Bay was on Hard Knocks in 2017 but their season opener against the Dolphins was postponed because of Hurricane Irma, so I did not count their first game that was played in Week 2 (in which they covered as favorites and the under hit)):

Hard Knocks team ATS in Week 1: 8-7-1

HK outright wins as underdogs: 2

Opponent outright wins as underdogs: 5

Under is 11-5

2001: Ravens, -10.5, o/u 33.5…Final CHI (6) at BAL (17)

2002: Cowboys, -8.5, o/u 33.5…Final: DAL (10) at HOU (19)

2007: Chiefs, +3, o/u 38…Final: KC (3) at HOU (20)

2008: Cowboys, -6, o/u 48.5…Final: DAL (28) at CLE (10)

2009: Bengals, -5, o/u 41…Final: DEN (12) at CIN (7) (Brandon Stokley can kiss-my-anthia)

2010: Jets, -1, o/u 36.5…Final: BAL (10) at NYJ (9)

2012: Dolphins, +13.5, o/u 41.5…Final: MIA (10) at HOU (30)

2013: Bengals, +3, o/u 41.5…Final: CIN (21) at CHI (24)

2014: Falcons, +3, o/u 51.5…Final: NO (34) at ATL (37) in OT

2015: Texans, -1, o/u 41…Final: KC (27) at HOU (20)

2016: Rams, -2.5, o/u 43…Final: LAR (0) at SF (28)

2018: Browns, +3.5, o/u 41…Final: PIT (21) at CLE (21)

2019: Raiders, +3, o/u 42.5…Final: DEN (16) at OAK (24)

2020: Chargers, -2.5, o/u 41.5…Final: LAC (16) at CIN (13)

2020: Rams, -1, o/u 52…Final: DAL (17) at LAR (20)

2021: Cowboys, +8.5, o/u 52…Fina: DAL (29) at TB (31)

2022: Lions (+4) vs. Eagles, o/u 48.5

Lions are at home so they seem like a sexy pick, especially cause Hard Knocks teams have covered in five straight Week 1 games, but I just can’t do it. However, I will be confidently betting the under.

More picks are below some futures I’m taking.

Seahawks Under 5.5 Regular Season Wins (+115)

I am so down on the Seahawks this year. I think they may be the worst team in the league. Do you really trust Geno Smith and Drew Lock?

Bobby Wagner is gone, that’s gonna hurt the morale for the defense and the locker room. Plus money here is a steal.

Bengals Over 10 Regular Season Wins (even money)

If the Bengals don’t win 11 games this year then something didn’t go right. (*Editor’s note: Rams o/u is 10.5 I think, which is appealing, but this Stafford elbow stuff freaks me out so I’m staying away from that)

AFC North winner: Bengals (+120)

Why are the Ravens the outright favorite? WHO DEY.

AFC South winner: Jaguars (+640)

Just doing this one for fun. Maybe Doug Pedersen will be the difference. Maybe Trevor Lawrence makes a Joe Burrow-esque second-year leap. Maybe the Colts and Titans underperform.

NFC North winner: Vikings (+230)

This is a mainstream bias pick. If the hype around Kevin O’Connell is real and the Kirk Cousins/Mike Zimmer drama was bringing the team down, this could very well happen. This is also me banking on Aaron Rodgers really missing a true #1 wideout.

MVP: Jalen Hurts (+2100)

Also a bit of a mainstream bias pick but this is really good value.

Onto to the *tentative picks:

Bills at Rams (ml +115) & o52 – I forgot to buy the half point but it’s always the over for the first game of the season. Rams ml because I’m pretty sure McVay’s got a great record when he gets extra time to prepare and it’s a home dog.

Dom Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” NFL Pick of the Weekend: Steelers at Bengals (-6.5) – WHO DEY.

Saints at Falcons (+5.5) – I could absolutely see the Falcons getting wrecked but I’ll tell ya why I like them here: Dennis Allen has the bad HC record (like 8-28, I think (*Editor’s note: yeah I stopped doing actual research cause it took me a while to look up those Hard Knocks numbers and I need to go to bed)) and Arthur Smith will throw everything he’s got into this game because the Falcons won’t have a good chance to win much more after this one.

Eagles at Lions (Under 48.5) – Following the numbers on this one.

Broncos (-6.5) at Seahawks – Again, I just don’t like Seattle at all this year. Give me the Russ revenge game and LET’S RIDE.

It just feels different. I woke up this (Thursday) morning, September 1st, with an extra pep in my step. Whenever I work the midnight shift, I’ll wake up the next morning at 8am, open up my right eye (it takes a few minutes for the left eye to start functioning), scroll the phone for about a half hour, finally get up, make some coffee and start my day (i.e. sit on my couch for an hour and watch the Dan Patrick Show). But that wasn’t the case today. No, sir. Today I woke up, opened both of my eyes and scrolled the phone for about 20 minutes before making some coffee and staring at the board (with DP on in the background). I had a good week 0, going 3-1, which is important for two (2) reasons: I can’t afford to gamble so I have to win and that gave me some confidence when looking at the board this week. There’s very little mainstream bias in my picks, mostly gut feelings, so we shall see. Below my picks I will have my SEC insider’s picks of the weekend. Happy college football Week 1 everybody. (Editor’s note: I’ll almost always buy a half point because I hate pushing and I’m paranoid enough to think the whole number will always hit)

Dominic Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” Pick of the Week: Rice at USC (-32.5)

WVU (+7.5) at Pitt

Ball St. at Tennessee (-35.5)

Houston at UTSA (over 61.5) – bought half point

Oregon at Georgia (-16.5) – bought half point

Cincinnati at Arkansas (-6.5) – bought half point

Texas St. at Nevada (ml -115)

MTSU at James Madison (-5.5) – bought half point

Army at Coastal Carolina (over 53.5) – bought half point

UMass at Tulsa (over 59)

• Late add: Miami (OH) at Kentucky (-16.5)

Georgia St. at South Carolina (-12.5)

Notre Dame at Ohio St. (-16.5) – bought half point

*Late add: ND-OSU o58.5 – bought half point

Boise St. (ml +120) at Oregon St.

SEC Insider picks of the weekend:

Mouth Watering Pick of the Week: Georgia -17

Cincinnati at Arkansas (-7)

“I am toying with the idea of Florida ml (+125)” at home vs. Utah