Dun dun duh-duh-dun dun…duh-duh-duh-duh-duh-duh-duh-duh-DUN.
Can’t believe the NFL is back. I’m excited to get disappointed by my fantasy team and gamble with money I shouldn’t be gambling with (responsibly). College football Week 1 was a success, from both a viewing perspective and (allegedly) my venmo account. Now it’s time for the NFL to follow suit.
Hard Knocks was pretty good and it got me thinking about ATS records for teams that were on the show, only for their Week 1 games. I couldn’t find that specific stat anywhere so I did the research myself, using Pro Football Reference (*Editor’s note: Tampa Bay was on Hard Knocks in 2017 but their season opener against the Dolphins was postponed because of Hurricane Irma, so I did not count their first game that was played in Week 2 (in which they covered as favorites and the under hit)):
Hard Knocks team ATS in Week 1: 8-7-1
HK outright wins as underdogs: 2
Opponent outright wins as underdogs: 5
Under is 11-5
2001: Ravens, -10.5, o/u 33.5…Final CHI (6) at BAL (17)
2002: Cowboys, -8.5, o/u 33.5…Final: DAL (10) at HOU (19)
2007: Chiefs, +3, o/u 38…Final: KC (3) at HOU (20)
2008: Cowboys, -6, o/u 48.5…Final: DAL (28) at CLE (10)
2009: Bengals, -5, o/u 41…Final: DEN (12) at CIN (7) (Brandon Stokley can kiss-my-anthia)
2010: Jets, -1, o/u 36.5…Final: BAL (10) at NYJ (9)
2012: Dolphins, +13.5, o/u 41.5…Final: MIA (10) at HOU (30)
2013: Bengals, +3, o/u 41.5…Final: CIN (21) at CHI (24)
2014: Falcons, +3, o/u 51.5…Final: NO (34) at ATL (37) in OT
2015: Texans, -1, o/u 41…Final: KC (27) at HOU (20)
2016: Rams, -2.5, o/u 43…Final: LAR (0) at SF (28)
2018: Browns, +3.5, o/u 41…Final: PIT (21) at CLE (21)
2019: Raiders, +3, o/u 42.5…Final: DEN (16) at OAK (24)
2020: Chargers, -2.5, o/u 41.5…Final: LAC (16) at CIN (13)
2020: Rams, -1, o/u 52…Final: DAL (17) at LAR (20)
2021: Cowboys, +8.5, o/u 52…Fina: DAL (29) at TB (31)
2022: Lions (+4) vs. Eagles, o/u 48.5
Lions are at home so they seem like a sexy pick, especially cause Hard Knocks teams have covered in five straight Week 1 games, but I just can’t do it. However, I will be confidently betting the under.
More picks are below some futures I’m taking.
Seahawks Under 5.5 Regular Season Wins (+115)
I am so down on the Seahawks this year. I think they may be the worst team in the league. Do you really trust Geno Smith and Drew Lock?
Bobby Wagner is gone, that’s gonna hurt the morale for the defense and the locker room. Plus money here is a steal.
Bengals Over 10 Regular Season Wins (even money)
If the Bengals don’t win 11 games this year then something didn’t go right. (*Editor’s note: Rams o/u is 10.5 I think, which is appealing, but this Stafford elbow stuff freaks me out so I’m staying away from that)
AFC North winner: Bengals (+120)
Why are the Ravens the outright favorite? WHO DEY.
AFC South winner: Jaguars (+640)
Just doing this one for fun. Maybe Doug Pedersen will be the difference. Maybe Trevor Lawrence makes a Joe Burrow-esque second-year leap. Maybe the Colts and Titans underperform.
NFC North winner: Vikings (+230)
This is a mainstream bias pick. If the hype around Kevin O’Connell is real and the Kirk Cousins/Mike Zimmer drama was bringing the team down, this could very well happen. This is also me banking on Aaron Rodgers really missing a true #1 wideout.
MVP: Jalen Hurts (+2100)
Also a bit of a mainstream bias pick but this is really good value.
Onto to the *tentative picks:
Bills at Rams (ml +115) & o52 – I forgot to buy the half point but it’s always the over for the first game of the season. Rams ml because I’m pretty sure McVay’s got a great record when he gets extra time to prepare and it’s a home dog.
Dom Toretto’s “Take it or leave it” NFL Pick of the Weekend: Steelers at Bengals (-6.5) – WHO DEY.
Saints at Falcons (+5.5) – I could absolutely see the Falcons getting wrecked but I’ll tell ya why I like them here: Dennis Allen has the bad HC record (like 8-28, I think (*Editor’s note: yeah I stopped doing actual research cause it took me a while to look up those Hard Knocks numbers and I need to go to bed)) and Arthur Smith will throw everything he’s got into this game because the Falcons won’t have a good chance to win much more after this one.
Eagles at Lions (Under 48.5) – Following the numbers on this one.
Broncos (-6.5) at Seahawks – Again, I just don’t like Seattle at all this year. Give me the Russ revenge game and LET’S RIDE.
Griffin Weinberg 